(Age, position in parentheses next to name)
Starting Rotation:
Andres Silva (39, SP): Originally acquired during the 1st season of Gleeman World from the Muertrier (now known as the Vigilantes) along with RP Stan Ramsey for 3B Brandon Sheffield, RP Quinton Becker, and a minor league arm. Granted free agency after the conclusion of Season 5, then re-acquired at the beginning of Season 8 along with RP Jimmie Estrella and RP Bernard Griffith in return for SP Ted Roberts and RP Max Burke. Chicago also picks up the remainder of Silva's contract.
Trade analysis: Becker imploded upon arrival to Montreal, while Ramsey gave the 'Hawks 34 passable innings before becoming a pumpkin himself. Sheffield is now an above average performer on the Vigilantes, owning a solid .280/.334/.505 career line in about 4000 career at bats, although his glovework is a bit shaky at third. Silva, however, has been one of the better pitchers on several excellent Jayhawk squads of the recent past. Sheffield is just 27, though, and has time to even out the value of the trade. As for the 2nd deal, the Jayhawks pick up the biggest asset (Estrella) and the biggest millstone (Silva, while still effective, is very expensive) in the trade. Too early to pick winners.
Miguel Torres (37, SP): Signed as a free agent during Season 8 for 2 years at $11.4 million.
Jackson Jenkins (25, SP) Acquired (Season 7), along with LF Mark Sakamoto, from Anaheim in exchange for CF Byung-Hyun Yosida, RP Grover Rowand, and $3.5 million to pay for Rowand's contract.
Trade analysis: Hard to do, since I was personally involved in this deal, but let's look at the facts: Jenkins hasn't been very good as a Jayhawk, but Yosida has been equally bad as an Anteater. Both are 25 years old, and both are talented enough to outperform their current rates of production. That's roughly a wash. Rowand has been very good as Anaheim's closer, but he's 39 years old, while Sakamoto put up a mediocre half-season for the 'Hawks before being dealt to Vancouver for a relief prospect. Difficult to call this one.
David Gates (26, SP): Acquired, along with 3B Ralph Ramirez, via trade (Season 8) from the Yankees in return for 2B Tino Simon.
Trade analysis: Gates has been solid so far; he's no stud, but he fills a hole in the rotation cheaply for the foreseeable future. Ramirez is a solid 3B prospect with very real power. He'll remind Jayhawk fans of Chili Rogers. Simon is cheap, and can certainly get on base, but he lacks the range to be much of a 2B. It's early, and the teams certainly had different needs, but this looks like a very good move for Chicago.
Oswaldo Dotel (28, SP): Acquired in trade (Season 6) from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (now the San Juan Rincons) along with RP Jose Lugo in exchange for CF Pat Shinjo, RP Omar Rincon, and $2.7 million.
Trade analysis: Shinjo is still in the minors, but doesn't have the bat to start at the ML level. He'd make a good defensive replacement at CF/2B. Omar Rincon, since traded, has been anywhere from bad to awful. While Lugo's bad control makes it unlikely that he'll ever be a good big leaguer, Dotel has at least given the Jayhawks one good season. A Jayhawk win, but it's been all downhill so far for Dotel.
Bullpen:
Ramiro Prieto (23, ClA): Acquired via trade (Season 7) from Tacoma in return for RPs Paul Black and B.C. Ortiz.
Trade analysis: Too early to reach a verdict, although Prieto is undeniably the best player in the deal.
Ross Livingstone: (32, SuA): Signed as a free agent (Season 8) to a 1 year, $5.2 million deal.
Pablo Johnson (26, SuA): Acquired, along with SP Shane Barkett and RP Luis Valdez (Season 7), from the D-Rays (the current Rincons) for SP Seth Adams.
Trade analysis: Adams has been solid, although the injury he suffered with the Jayhawks seems to have had some sort of lingering effect. The 'Hawks received a nice bag of youthful goodies in return. No clear winner yet.
Bernard Griffith (25, SuB): Acquired via trade in the aforementioned Silva deal.
Ricardo Alicea (30, SuB): Claimed off of waivers from the Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims (Season 7).
Bum Marte (28, LrA): Acquired via trade (Season 8), along with RP Alfredo Craddock, from the Buffalo Europeans in return for 3B James Sparks, SS Walker Tucker, and 1B Ross Stein.
Trade analysis: Craddock is a minor league lifer, so it's essentially a 3-for-1. Marte isn't anything special, but he's useful as a 5th starter or long reliever, a guy who can soak up innings. He's also just making the minimum this season. The three prospects going to Buffalo all have flaws that will likely prevent them from being serious contributors on an ML team. Sparks is your classic tweener, in that he can't hit enough for a COF, but can't play 3B. Stein has power, but will probably struggle to post a .300 OBP as a 1B. Tucker has the most issues, in that he doesn't have any plate discipline, can't drive the ball, and isn't really a SS. There's really very little talent actually being exchanged; Chicago essentially received the only player that matters.
Jose Lugo (26, on the 15-day DL): Acquired via trade in the Oswaldo Dotel deal, mentioned above.
Catchers/DH's:
Juan DeSoto (23, C): Acquired via trade (Season 7) from Boston in "The Deal" (details at http://gleemanworld.blogspot.com/2008/05/blockbuster-alert-masato-beckett-to.html).
Trade analysis: Whether this deal becomes worth it for the Red Sox hinges on whether Beckett and Masato can lead the Red Sox to a WS victory. It's already a win for the Jayhawks, who received an entire farm system (and a couple of quality young MLers) in return.
Tomas Martin (23, C): Signed as an international FA (Season 4) to a $4.5 million bonus.
Infielders:
Paul Kirby (28, 1B): Acquired via trade (Season 8) from the New York Yankees in exchange for 1B Carlos Bennett and LF Jacob Hooper.
Trade analysis: It's early, but this trade clearly fits a need for the Jayhawks, as Kirby looks like a legitimate upgrade over Bennett. I'm not sure what Bennett accomplishes for the Yankees. Same goes for Hooper, who looks like a long shot to be anything more than a reserve OF on a decent team. Point goes to the Jayhawks.
Robinson Perez (27, 1B): Acquired via trade (Season 8), along with Sticky Kelly, from the San Antonio Sting in return for SP Javy Cedeno and 1B Gary Haynes.
Trade analysis: It may be early, but the early returns aren't very promising for San Antonio. Cedeno now has 529 big league innings under his belt that suggest he's not a legitimate major league pitcher, and Haynes isn't going to improve enough to ever become a big leaguer himself (he's 26). Kelly doesn't project to be anything more than a spot starter/long reliever, but that probably already makes him more valuable than Cedeno. Perez is a force against LHP, and makes an excellent platoon 1B. He's also capable of playing in the OF in a pinch. A very nice deal for Chicago.
Stu Butler (24, 2B): Drafted (Season 3) in the 1st Round (28th overall).
Gene Tessmer (27, SS): Acquired via trade (Season 7), along with Victor Thomas and Lawrence Nation, from the Tacoma Downpour in exchange for C Wilt Knotts, 3B Clayton Osborne, and 3B Tony Cairo.
Trade analysis: Too early. Cairo hardly played with Tacoma before departing for free agency, so it's essentially a 3-for-2. The other two players on Tacoma have yet to reach the majors, but are good prospects. Thomas, Nation, and Tessmer are all on Chicago's ML roster, and are all playing well so far.
Robert Carter (31, SS): Signed as a free agent (Season 8) to a 1 year, $1.57 million deal.
Victor Thomas (25, 3B) Acquired via trade (Season 7) in the aforementioned Tessmer deal.
Edgardo Diaz (29, 3B) Claimed off of waivers (Season 8) from the Monterrey Conquistadores.
Outfielders:
Nash McCartin (28, LF): Acquired via trade (Season 7) in "The Deal" (mentioned above).
Shawn Robinson (23, CF) Acquired via trade (Season 4), along with 2B Ivan Trajano, from the Bureaucrats in return for SP Johnnie Clark and 3B Cookie Morris.
Trade analysis: Fan-favorite Morris never made the big leagues with Washington, and Clark, while useful as a back-end starter, served little purpose for a Bureaucrat club going nowhere. He's now toiling away in AAA for the Mets. On the Jayhawks' side Trajano has already moved on to Colorado Springs. That leaves Robinson, who figures to be a solid producer at CF for the Jayhawks, both with the bat and glove. Looks like a Jayhawk win.
Bret Ray (26, CF): Acquired via trade (Season 7), along with RP Paul Black, from the Philadelphia Phenomenauts in return for SS Phillip Bergman.
Trade analysis: Bergman only lasted one season as Philly's shortstop, putting up an awful .617 OPS. Released after the season, he's yet to sign with another club as of this blog entry. Neither Black nor Ray figure to be all that great, but both can contribute on a ML team for the major league minimum. Bergman was a bad placeholder for a last-place squad for one year. The Jayhawks are clear winners here.
Gary Riley*** (26, CF): Acquired via trade (Season 7), along with RF Joaquin Cordero, from the Boise Mashers in return for C Will Carter.
Trade analysis: Carter's bat went completely limp after leaving Chicago, but the pitching staff has improved since his arrival; whether or not the two are interrelated is hard to say, but Carter does have a reputation as an excellent pitch-caller. Riley doesn't belong on a major league roster; he's probably going to be sent down when RP Lugo comes back from injury. Cordero has some potential, but his ceiling is probably as a fourth outfielder. No clear winner or loser here.
Lawrence Nation (24, RF) Acquired via trade (Season 7) in the aforementioned Tessmer deal.
*** For the purposes of this part, we won't count Riley as part of the 25-man roster, since I'm assuming that he'll be sent down upon Lugo's return from the DL. I could be wrong, but that's just my best guess, since he seems redundant as the team's 3rd CF, and being left-handed, cannot handle 2B (not that such a trivial matter stopped frymaster, but that's another matter entirely ;-)).
Acquisition Breakdown:
FAs (ML): 3 (Torres, Livingstone, Carter)
FAs (MiL): 0
FAs (International): 1 (Martin)
Acquired via trade: 18 (Silva, Jenkins, Gates, Dotel, Prieto, Johnson, Griffith, Marte, Lugo, DeSoto, Kirby, Perez, Tessmer, Thomas, McCartin, Robinson, Ray, Nation)
Claimed off waivers: 2 (Alicea, Diaz)
Amateur Draft: 1 (Butler)
Rule 5 picks: 0
Originals: 0
Age Breakdown:
>27 years old: 13 (Jenkins, Gates, Prieto, Johnson, Griffith, Lugo, DeSoto, Martin, Butler, Thomas, Robinson, Ray, Nation)
27-30 years old: 8 (Dotel, Alicea, Marte, Kirby, Perez, Tessmer, Diaz, McCartin)
31-34 years old: 2 (Livingstone, Carter)
>35 years old: 2 (Silva, Torres)
Summary:
This is one hell of a young Jayhawk team, and one with an embarrassment of riches in the minors. The majority of the team, not surprisingly, has been formed through trading. He's certainly done well through that method, peddling his veterans off for youth. The offense is legitimately good, and very young; no regular is more than 28 years old. They'll clearly score plenty of runs this season, and for the foreseeable future. The defense is also pretty solid; although Tessmer's glovework and arm are erratic at SS, and Kirby plays first like a DH, all of the other Jayhawks can hold their own at their respective positions. The downfall of this team, not surprisingly, is likely to be its rotation. Silva doesn't figure to be able to pitch very deeply into games, and may need an extra day off here and there. Torres figures to be more of a workhorse than Silva, but his stuff is slipping. After that, it's a bit of a crapshoot as to what you'll get in terms of performance. Jenkins slots in as the #3, and certainly has talent, but hasn't performed so far. Meanwhile, Gates and Dotel are guys that figure to be long relievers or AAA insurance on a better team. In the bullpen, Prieto, Livingstone, and Johnson are all talented enough to be assets, and Marte can ably fill in for any of the starters due to injury (which is a real issue, since Silva and Torres are rapidly aging, and Dotel is fragile) or ineffectiveness. Griffith is also solid. The relief shouldn't figure to be too much of a problem. The 'Hawks might be playing a bit over their heads right now (their 17-9 record belies a .535 expected winning percentage), but they've only recently called up many of their young stars. Look for them to take a wildcard slot this season; they should certainly compete for the division crown by Season 9, by which they'll likely have improved their rotation, either through trade or by calling up one of their many talented prospects.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Masato picks up 150th win
Boston Red Sox ace Don Masato became the second pitcher in Gleeman World history to win 150 games in his career during Boston's 5-2 win over Richmond on Wednesday morning.
Masato pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing five hits and three walks while striking out 12, and left with a 5-0 lead. The two-time Cy Young winner is second to Minnesota's Ruben Crespo (152) on the all-time wins list. Masato leads all qualified pitchers with a .754 winning percentage.
"It's a nice milestone, but this isn't what's important," Masato said. "The goal every year is to win a title. I came close a couple times in Chicago and we almost had a chance here last season, so hopefully we can keep building on things and bring a championship to Boston."
Masato struggled in his debut with the Red Sox, going 15-10 with a 4.83 ERA in Season 7. So far in Season 8, he's 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA.
"I just feel a lot more comfortable after spending a year in a new city, a new league, new park," Masato said. "Last season's behind me and hopefully I can keep putting up wins."
Masato pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing five hits and three walks while striking out 12, and left with a 5-0 lead. The two-time Cy Young winner is second to Minnesota's Ruben Crespo (152) on the all-time wins list. Masato leads all qualified pitchers with a .754 winning percentage.
"It's a nice milestone, but this isn't what's important," Masato said. "The goal every year is to win a title. I came close a couple times in Chicago and we almost had a chance here last season, so hopefully we can keep building on things and bring a championship to Boston."
Masato struggled in his debut with the Red Sox, going 15-10 with a 4.83 ERA in Season 7. So far in Season 8, he's 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA.
"I just feel a lot more comfortable after spending a year in a new city, a new league, new park," Masato said. "Last season's behind me and hopefully I can keep putting up wins."
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Rhodes halfway to 3,000
New York Yankees left fielder Bernard Rhodes became the first player in Gleeman World history to reach 1,500 hits for his career in the Yankees' 7-0 win over Vancouver on Monday night.
Rhodes reached on an infield single in the first inning, drew a walk in the third, flied out to right in the fifth and walked again in the sixth. In his last at-bat of the night, Rhodes came up with two on and two out hoping to get the big hit out of the way and avoid letting it linger.
"I always want to get a hit when I'm at the plate, but that was a little different," Rhodes said. "I tried not to think about it, but I'll admit I didn't want to have to sleep on 1,499."
The four-time All-Star doesn't have to as he ripped a line drive into center field for the milestone, slapping his hands in joy as he crossed first base.
"That was just a great feeling," he said. "It gave us some extra breathing room so we could relax a bit in the ninth and it kept me from having to think about when the next hit will come. It's a little tough to appreciate right now with the season just starting, but I've always prided myself on hitting for a high average, and I'm thrilled to be the first to 1,500. Hopefully I can be the first to 2,000 and 2,500 and, God-willing, 3,000."
Rhodes reached on an infield single in the first inning, drew a walk in the third, flied out to right in the fifth and walked again in the sixth. In his last at-bat of the night, Rhodes came up with two on and two out hoping to get the big hit out of the way and avoid letting it linger.
"I always want to get a hit when I'm at the plate, but that was a little different," Rhodes said. "I tried not to think about it, but I'll admit I didn't want to have to sleep on 1,499."
The four-time All-Star doesn't have to as he ripped a line drive into center field for the milestone, slapping his hands in joy as he crossed first base.
"That was just a great feeling," he said. "It gave us some extra breathing room so we could relax a bit in the ninth and it kept me from having to think about when the next hit will come. It's a little tough to appreciate right now with the season just starting, but I've always prided myself on hitting for a high average, and I'm thrilled to be the first to 1,500. Hopefully I can be the first to 2,000 and 2,500 and, God-willing, 3,000."
Monday, August 25, 2008
Santos joins 1,000 RBI club
Milwaukee Twindyans left fielder Hector Santos became the second player in Gleeman World history to drive in 1,000 runs in his career during the Twindyans' 3-2 loss to Sioux Falls on Monday morning.
Santos gave Milwaukee a 2-1 lead with a 2-out, 2-run double in the sixth inning that gave him 12 RBI for the season and 1,000 for his career. Santos is second on the career list behind Boston's Matt Governale (1,044).
"I didn't even realize it was a milestone until Sam (first base coach Sam Seaver) asked for the ball and tossed it into the dugout," Santos said. "It would have been nice to hang on for the win and have that be the difference, but it's still a nice achievement. It's a tribute to all the guys who have hit in front of me over the years and given me a chance to come up with the big hit."
Santos gave Milwaukee a 2-1 lead with a 2-out, 2-run double in the sixth inning that gave him 12 RBI for the season and 1,000 for his career. Santos is second on the career list behind Boston's Matt Governale (1,044).
"I didn't even realize it was a milestone until Sam (first base coach Sam Seaver) asked for the ball and tossed it into the dugout," Santos said. "It would have been nice to hang on for the win and have that be the difference, but it's still a nice achievement. It's a tribute to all the guys who have hit in front of me over the years and given me a chance to come up with the big hit."
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Tacoma: Transaction Analysis
In the Downpour's first trade of the season they sent a pair of prospects to Chicago Jayhawks in exchange for recent rule 5 draft selection Milt Dye, Bill Pearson, and Skeeter West.
Dye, the player the Downpour had at the top of their rule 5 draft board will slot int other third spot in the lineup and will be the teams regular catcher. Dye who has a career minor league OPS of 990, will just turn 23 this season. While Dye is slightly below average defensively, he isn't brutal behind the dish, and in fact is likely better defensively than any other of the TDP's other starting options. Dye has above average power, above average ability to make contact and above average walk rate and should hit for a solid average. Pearson, will also contribute to the TDP's this season as part of the starting rotation, though he isn't expected to be a any great shakes he will give the team innings. Skeeter West will play the season in AAA and will likely be on the club in season 9.
Leave Tacoma are prospects: Christian Reid, and Morgan Philips.
Reid a tweener outfield prospect, who has solid ratings across the board is stretched as a full time center fielder, but won't hit enough to be an asset at 1b or a corner outfield spot. Philips is a left handed starting pitcher who looks like will have a solid career as a 3 or 4 starter, but from TDP's perspective he was the 4th lefty on the SP depth chart behind Walt Davis, Robert Fikac and Happy Magadan, and his results haven't yet lived up to his skills.
Dye will be an asset to the club, and will remain on a cheap contract until future star catcher Will Knotts is ready. The club having Dye will allow them to bring Knotts along slowly if need be as well as provide offensive support when the wave of starting pitching starts to matriculate to Tacoma in seasons 9 and 10.
Dye, the player the Downpour had at the top of their rule 5 draft board will slot int other third spot in the lineup and will be the teams regular catcher. Dye who has a career minor league OPS of 990, will just turn 23 this season. While Dye is slightly below average defensively, he isn't brutal behind the dish, and in fact is likely better defensively than any other of the TDP's other starting options. Dye has above average power, above average ability to make contact and above average walk rate and should hit for a solid average. Pearson, will also contribute to the TDP's this season as part of the starting rotation, though he isn't expected to be a any great shakes he will give the team innings. Skeeter West will play the season in AAA and will likely be on the club in season 9.
Leave Tacoma are prospects: Christian Reid, and Morgan Philips.
Reid a tweener outfield prospect, who has solid ratings across the board is stretched as a full time center fielder, but won't hit enough to be an asset at 1b or a corner outfield spot. Philips is a left handed starting pitcher who looks like will have a solid career as a 3 or 4 starter, but from TDP's perspective he was the 4th lefty on the SP depth chart behind Walt Davis, Robert Fikac and Happy Magadan, and his results haven't yet lived up to his skills.
Dye will be an asset to the club, and will remain on a cheap contract until future star catcher Will Knotts is ready. The club having Dye will allow them to bring Knotts along slowly if need be as well as provide offensive support when the wave of starting pitching starts to matriculate to Tacoma in seasons 9 and 10.
Governale first to 400 homers
Boston Red Sox star Matt Governale became the first player in Gleeman World to hit 400 career homers Thursday in Boston's 6-2 loss to Pittsburgh in the fourth game of Season 8 for the Red Sox.
Governale led off the sixth inning with a line drive over the fence in right-center field, cutting Pittsburgh's lead to 4-2. The milestone homer came in Governale's 1,098th big league game. The two-time AL MVP is also the only player with at least 1,000 RBI (1,033).
"It's a big number, but coming in a loss you don't really appreciate it much," Governale said. "I'm thinking more about how we lost the first series.
"I'm only 29, so God-willing, there will be a few more milestones down the road for me. Hopefully the next one can come in a win so I enjoy it a bit more."
Governale led off the sixth inning with a line drive over the fence in right-center field, cutting Pittsburgh's lead to 4-2. The milestone homer came in Governale's 1,098th big league game. The two-time AL MVP is also the only player with at least 1,000 RBI (1,033).
"It's a big number, but coming in a loss you don't really appreciate it much," Governale said. "I'm thinking more about how we lost the first series.
"I'm only 29, so God-willing, there will be a few more milestones down the road for me. Hopefully the next one can come in a win so I enjoy it a bit more."
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Tacoma Downpour top 20 Prospects
Tacoma Downpour top 20 Prospects
1. Cliff Hawkins, 1b - 19 Years Old: ETA - Season 11
The first overall pick in the Season 7 draft Hawkins projects to be an MVP level hitter. The left hander projects to do it all in the batters box hitting for tremendous power, a high average while drawing more than his share of walks. Defensively Hawkins is a first baseman, and should be average. Last season, he debuted as an 18 year old in Low A and hit 330/404/660 in 66 games with 18 Homers 66 RBI's and a 44/37 K/BB ratio. A good major league comp would be Albert Puljos.
2. Will Knotts, C - 20 Years Old ETA - Season 10
Knotts acquired by Tacoma last season from Chicago in an huge 9 player deal projects to be a near MVP level hitter, who will stand behind the plate and pretend to play defense. Knotts is clearly defensively challenged as no part of his defensive game is even average, however, in the batters box Knotts does everything well above. Knotts power and plate dispine is superior to even Cliff Hawkins, however, he won't hit for the average or put the ball in play like Hawkins. In only 86 games last year in low A, Knotts hit 34 Homers and drove in 103 runs while 370/450/1195. A good major league comp would be Mickey Tettleton with better defense.
3. Glenallen Simontacci SS - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
Simontacci doesn't swing the lumber like either Knotts or Hawkins, however, he does hit and unlike the other two the thing on the end of his arm isn't just a hand its a glove. If Glenallen can continue to develop his defensive skill, he very well may deserve to be a notch higher on this list. However, as his defense may be a little questionable for a SS, so he sits behind Knotts. Defensivly his downside is a gold glove level thirdbaseman. Simontacci, has a broad offensive skill set who projects to hit 300 with 50 extra base hits. He runs well, and with experience he should be a well above average baserunner, the only potential redflag is plate disipline, which while a weakness is well within accptable levels. Simontacci drafted with the fifth overall pick in season 6 draft, looks like he will have a long and productive career. Last season, in high A he hit 325/378/576 in 114 games. A good major league comp would be Allan Trammell.
4. Robert Fikac LHP - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
Fikac was acquired in the first round of the season 5 draft with a late first round selection. Fikac was considered a tough sign, however, the Downpour showed him the money as he signed for the largest bonus in the history of the league (at the time). The big left hander has a rubber arm, and should be able to take the mound as part of a 4 man rotation. However, he does tend to fatigue a little earlier than one would like. With a plus fastball, and above average change and curve as compliments to what projects as outstanding control. Fikac, will absolutely own left handers and should be able to more than solid versus right handers. In high A last year, Fikac went 17 and 5 with a 3.19 ERA in 186 innings with 163 K's and 63 walks. Not sure who a good comp would be.
5. Al Guzman RHP - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
Acquired last season as an international free agent signing for a 16mm dollar bonus, the second largest on the year, and perhaps the best international player available. Guzman, should be able to go deeper into games than Fikac but likely won't be able to pitch in a 4 man rotation. Guzman's control looks to be only average, but he compliments average control with the ability to handle both lefties and righties, an outstanding sinker, and 3 other above average pitches, which will be used to generate groundball after groundball. Last season, Guzman jumped right to Hi A and made 5 starts going 3-0 in 38 innings allowing 31 hits with 48K's and 15bb's. A good major league comp would be Ben Sheets.
6. Clayton Osborn 3b - 21 Years old ETA - Season 9
Osborn acquired as part of last seasons deal that brought Will Knotts to the organazation, looks to be on the fast track and will likely be the fist of the Downpour's top prospects to appear in the show, with an ETA of season 9. Osborn struggled somewhat in high A after arriving as part of the trade, but he imprssed all with his makeup and advanced skill set. A quick start in AA will likely get him to AAA by mid season. Osborn profiles to be a near gold glove caliber thirdbaseman with a strong bat that will play versus both left hander and right handers, a good major league comparable would be Adrian Beltre.
7 Oswaldo Taverez RHP - 22 Years old ETA - Season 11
Taverez, a 6th round draft pick has all the tools to be a top closer in the league. Two PLUS PLUS pitches in his fastball and curve, and paint the black control to both lefties and righties. The season 11 projection might be a bit premature, as Taverez has quiet a bit of development left despite being 22, the Downpour are committed to taking it slow with Taverez. A good major league comparable would be JJ Putz.
8. Happy Magadan LHP - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
A notch below the big two pitching propsects, but should be a solid number 3 or 4 starter. The southpaw has an unusual forkball/slider combo which is well above average but his next two pitchers will need work to get to league average. Happy should dominate lefties, and be solid if unspectucal versus right handers. Unlike Guzman, and Fikac, Happy can light up a radar gun despite not throwing a taditonal fastball. Magadan was extremly tough after comming to Tacoma last year pitching 92 innings and recoring 87K's and posting 2.74 ERA to go along with a 1.15 WHIP. A good major league comparable would be Oliver Perez.
9. Kevin Morris RHP - 19 Years old ETA - Season 11
Morris drafted last year as the first pick in the second round, looks to project as a dominant 6th,7th, 8th inning setup man. While he doesn't have the command of Taverez or the ability to dominate righties and lefties to the same extent, he does share two dominant plus/plus pitches in a traditional fastball/curveball arsenal. He won't be able to pitch as often as Taverez, but will complement him well with the ability to go multiple innings. Can't think of a good comp.
10. Donald Nakamura CF - 24 Years old ETA - Season 8
Nakamura, the only inhereted player from the previous organazational regime listed in this top 10. Donald looks like he will take over CF for the Downpour starting in May of season 8 and will hold onto the position through out the target peak of Tacoma's success cycle. Nakamura, is alimited player but he makes the most of his skills. A great athlete, and base stealer has decent power a decent eye and the ability to hit both lefties and righties, though should pound righties. He also will strugle mightily to make contact consistantly. Nakamura has great range, but isn't as sure handed as one would like in a centerfielder, probably all in all slightly below average defensivly. An O.K. major league comp is Mike Camereon, with less power and more BA and less sure handed.
11. Posiedon Smith - A man without a position, has underperformed his drafted position. Can hit, but will be stretched at 2nd.
12. BC Ortiz - Should be a decent relief option.
13. Albert Hansen - Slightly below average offensive 2b, should be solid or better on D.
14. Norm Webster - Gold Glove Caliber defensive SS, will likely only start versus LHP in the show.
15. Paul Black - Should be a decent relief option.
16. Sean Bailey - Good hitting 1b. Will struggle to find a job with Hawkins blocking him.
17. Wilton Widger - Good hitting 1b. Will debut in Season 8.
18. Jordan Atchey - Bench bat, can play the corners and 2b but not very well.
19. Benny Roque - O.K. Pitching prospect.
20. Andres Merced - Decent hitter, can't field more suited to bench roll or part time LF/RF.
1. Cliff Hawkins, 1b - 19 Years Old: ETA - Season 11
The first overall pick in the Season 7 draft Hawkins projects to be an MVP level hitter. The left hander projects to do it all in the batters box hitting for tremendous power, a high average while drawing more than his share of walks. Defensively Hawkins is a first baseman, and should be average. Last season, he debuted as an 18 year old in Low A and hit 330/404/660 in 66 games with 18 Homers 66 RBI's and a 44/37 K/BB ratio. A good major league comp would be Albert Puljos.
2. Will Knotts, C - 20 Years Old ETA - Season 10
Knotts acquired by Tacoma last season from Chicago in an huge 9 player deal projects to be a near MVP level hitter, who will stand behind the plate and pretend to play defense. Knotts is clearly defensively challenged as no part of his defensive game is even average, however, in the batters box Knotts does everything well above. Knotts power and plate dispine is superior to even Cliff Hawkins, however, he won't hit for the average or put the ball in play like Hawkins. In only 86 games last year in low A, Knotts hit 34 Homers and drove in 103 runs while 370/450/1195. A good major league comp would be Mickey Tettleton with better defense.
3. Glenallen Simontacci SS - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
Simontacci doesn't swing the lumber like either Knotts or Hawkins, however, he does hit and unlike the other two the thing on the end of his arm isn't just a hand its a glove. If Glenallen can continue to develop his defensive skill, he very well may deserve to be a notch higher on this list. However, as his defense may be a little questionable for a SS, so he sits behind Knotts. Defensivly his downside is a gold glove level thirdbaseman. Simontacci, has a broad offensive skill set who projects to hit 300 with 50 extra base hits. He runs well, and with experience he should be a well above average baserunner, the only potential redflag is plate disipline, which while a weakness is well within accptable levels. Simontacci drafted with the fifth overall pick in season 6 draft, looks like he will have a long and productive career. Last season, in high A he hit 325/378/576 in 114 games. A good major league comp would be Allan Trammell.
4. Robert Fikac LHP - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
Fikac was acquired in the first round of the season 5 draft with a late first round selection. Fikac was considered a tough sign, however, the Downpour showed him the money as he signed for the largest bonus in the history of the league (at the time). The big left hander has a rubber arm, and should be able to take the mound as part of a 4 man rotation. However, he does tend to fatigue a little earlier than one would like. With a plus fastball, and above average change and curve as compliments to what projects as outstanding control. Fikac, will absolutely own left handers and should be able to more than solid versus right handers. In high A last year, Fikac went 17 and 5 with a 3.19 ERA in 186 innings with 163 K's and 63 walks. Not sure who a good comp would be.
5. Al Guzman RHP - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
Acquired last season as an international free agent signing for a 16mm dollar bonus, the second largest on the year, and perhaps the best international player available. Guzman, should be able to go deeper into games than Fikac but likely won't be able to pitch in a 4 man rotation. Guzman's control looks to be only average, but he compliments average control with the ability to handle both lefties and righties, an outstanding sinker, and 3 other above average pitches, which will be used to generate groundball after groundball. Last season, Guzman jumped right to Hi A and made 5 starts going 3-0 in 38 innings allowing 31 hits with 48K's and 15bb's. A good major league comp would be Ben Sheets.
6. Clayton Osborn 3b - 21 Years old ETA - Season 9
Osborn acquired as part of last seasons deal that brought Will Knotts to the organazation, looks to be on the fast track and will likely be the fist of the Downpour's top prospects to appear in the show, with an ETA of season 9. Osborn struggled somewhat in high A after arriving as part of the trade, but he imprssed all with his makeup and advanced skill set. A quick start in AA will likely get him to AAA by mid season. Osborn profiles to be a near gold glove caliber thirdbaseman with a strong bat that will play versus both left hander and right handers, a good major league comparable would be Adrian Beltre.
7 Oswaldo Taverez RHP - 22 Years old ETA - Season 11
Taverez, a 6th round draft pick has all the tools to be a top closer in the league. Two PLUS PLUS pitches in his fastball and curve, and paint the black control to both lefties and righties. The season 11 projection might be a bit premature, as Taverez has quiet a bit of development left despite being 22, the Downpour are committed to taking it slow with Taverez. A good major league comparable would be JJ Putz.
8. Happy Magadan LHP - 21 Years old ETA - Season 10
A notch below the big two pitching propsects, but should be a solid number 3 or 4 starter. The southpaw has an unusual forkball/slider combo which is well above average but his next two pitchers will need work to get to league average. Happy should dominate lefties, and be solid if unspectucal versus right handers. Unlike Guzman, and Fikac, Happy can light up a radar gun despite not throwing a taditonal fastball. Magadan was extremly tough after comming to Tacoma last year pitching 92 innings and recoring 87K's and posting 2.74 ERA to go along with a 1.15 WHIP. A good major league comparable would be Oliver Perez.
9. Kevin Morris RHP - 19 Years old ETA - Season 11
Morris drafted last year as the first pick in the second round, looks to project as a dominant 6th,7th, 8th inning setup man. While he doesn't have the command of Taverez or the ability to dominate righties and lefties to the same extent, he does share two dominant plus/plus pitches in a traditional fastball/curveball arsenal. He won't be able to pitch as often as Taverez, but will complement him well with the ability to go multiple innings. Can't think of a good comp.
10. Donald Nakamura CF - 24 Years old ETA - Season 8
Nakamura, the only inhereted player from the previous organazational regime listed in this top 10. Donald looks like he will take over CF for the Downpour starting in May of season 8 and will hold onto the position through out the target peak of Tacoma's success cycle. Nakamura, is alimited player but he makes the most of his skills. A great athlete, and base stealer has decent power a decent eye and the ability to hit both lefties and righties, though should pound righties. He also will strugle mightily to make contact consistantly. Nakamura has great range, but isn't as sure handed as one would like in a centerfielder, probably all in all slightly below average defensivly. An O.K. major league comp is Mike Camereon, with less power and more BA and less sure handed.
11. Posiedon Smith - A man without a position, has underperformed his drafted position. Can hit, but will be stretched at 2nd.
12. BC Ortiz - Should be a decent relief option.
13. Albert Hansen - Slightly below average offensive 2b, should be solid or better on D.
14. Norm Webster - Gold Glove Caliber defensive SS, will likely only start versus LHP in the show.
15. Paul Black - Should be a decent relief option.
16. Sean Bailey - Good hitting 1b. Will struggle to find a job with Hawkins blocking him.
17. Wilton Widger - Good hitting 1b. Will debut in Season 8.
18. Jordan Atchey - Bench bat, can play the corners and 2b but not very well.
19. Benny Roque - O.K. Pitching prospect.
20. Andres Merced - Decent hitter, can't field more suited to bench roll or part time LF/RF.
Monday, August 18, 2008
AL East Preview: Season 8
New York Metropolitans: (Season 7: 108-54, AL East Champs, World Champs)
They've made a few cosmetic changes (Pascual Ozuna for Gary Wood, Cody Woods for Toby Pulsipher), but the core of the team is basically the same. Rotation stalwarts Wainhouse, Tomlinson, and Long all return, although catcher Stan Lennon is gone. Replacing him is defensive whiz Andres Uribe and the aging Edgardo Lira. They won't be able to replace Lennon's bat, but both are superior with the glove, and are known to be excellent pitch-callers. This doesn't look to be a worse team than last year's, but there's little reason to believe that they'll be radically better. They should stay the course as one of the league's best again.
Prediction: 108 wins (again), AL East Champs, at least two of Wainhouse/Tomlinson/Long finish in the top 5 on the Cy Young Ballot.
Boston Red Sox: (Season 7: 85-77, Wildcard)
Logic says they have to be better. Their expected winning percentage was 4 games better than their actual win percentage. Don Masato was terrible, posting an ERA a run and a half worse than his career norm. Charles Brow and Jeremy Richardson (both free agents as I write this) combined for over 180 innings of horrid baseball (ERAs of 7.79 and 8.50, respectively). Even so, they were just good enough to squeak into the playoffs last season. That shouldn't be the case this year; Masato won't be that bad again, and the rest of the rotation should do fine, even without Miguel Torres. Replacing him is the 26 year old lefty Joshua Walsh; he's enjoyed moderate success in his brief career with the Sting and Yankees. It'll be interesting to see if he can tame Fenway. Rob Matthews should also make a very handy backup. The Sox should be able to shake the "underachieving" label and put together a stronger regular season.
Prediction: 92 wins, WC berth, Masato's ERA improves by at least a run over Season 7.
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs: (Season 7: 80-82)
They were a pleasant surprise last year, winning 14 more games than the previous season. Color me skeptical anyways. The team finished the season with a 4.49 team ERA, tied for 6th in the AL. They'll be hard-pressed to come close to that this year; Tarrik Enders and Otis Upshaw were excellent last year and are now gone, and Louis Lyon will almost certainly come back down to earth. Mo Greer is unlikely to help, as he's 38 years old, and coming off of a season where his ERA was comfortably over 5. The offense doesn't look to get much better, either, as the Pug Dogs failed to make a meaningful move to improve it. They could surprise me again and go .500, but I expect some regression this season.
Prediction: 72-90, team ERA > 4.80.
Philadelphia Phenomenauts: (Season 7: 56-106)
Last season's rebuilding process continues this year, as everyday players Phillip Bergman, Houston Linden, and P.J. Wilson, along with starting pitcher Rigo Pineda, are now gone. Replacing them are a handful of Rule 5 scrubs. The Phenomenauts failed to make a single meaningful acquisition to their major league squad. In-season promotions to Joe Bacsik or B.C. Mota should help, but there's a decent chance neither of them will be called up, since the Phenomenauts don't figure to come close to contending this season. Philadelphia fans should expect a long season.
Prediction: 54-108, worst record in the AL.
They've made a few cosmetic changes (Pascual Ozuna for Gary Wood, Cody Woods for Toby Pulsipher), but the core of the team is basically the same. Rotation stalwarts Wainhouse, Tomlinson, and Long all return, although catcher Stan Lennon is gone. Replacing him is defensive whiz Andres Uribe and the aging Edgardo Lira. They won't be able to replace Lennon's bat, but both are superior with the glove, and are known to be excellent pitch-callers. This doesn't look to be a worse team than last year's, but there's little reason to believe that they'll be radically better. They should stay the course as one of the league's best again.
Prediction: 108 wins (again), AL East Champs, at least two of Wainhouse/Tomlinson/Long finish in the top 5 on the Cy Young Ballot.
Boston Red Sox: (Season 7: 85-77, Wildcard)
Logic says they have to be better. Their expected winning percentage was 4 games better than their actual win percentage. Don Masato was terrible, posting an ERA a run and a half worse than his career norm. Charles Brow and Jeremy Richardson (both free agents as I write this) combined for over 180 innings of horrid baseball (ERAs of 7.79 and 8.50, respectively). Even so, they were just good enough to squeak into the playoffs last season. That shouldn't be the case this year; Masato won't be that bad again, and the rest of the rotation should do fine, even without Miguel Torres. Replacing him is the 26 year old lefty Joshua Walsh; he's enjoyed moderate success in his brief career with the Sting and Yankees. It'll be interesting to see if he can tame Fenway. Rob Matthews should also make a very handy backup. The Sox should be able to shake the "underachieving" label and put together a stronger regular season.
Prediction: 92 wins, WC berth, Masato's ERA improves by at least a run over Season 7.
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs: (Season 7: 80-82)
They were a pleasant surprise last year, winning 14 more games than the previous season. Color me skeptical anyways. The team finished the season with a 4.49 team ERA, tied for 6th in the AL. They'll be hard-pressed to come close to that this year; Tarrik Enders and Otis Upshaw were excellent last year and are now gone, and Louis Lyon will almost certainly come back down to earth. Mo Greer is unlikely to help, as he's 38 years old, and coming off of a season where his ERA was comfortably over 5. The offense doesn't look to get much better, either, as the Pug Dogs failed to make a meaningful move to improve it. They could surprise me again and go .500, but I expect some regression this season.
Prediction: 72-90, team ERA > 4.80.
Philadelphia Phenomenauts: (Season 7: 56-106)
Last season's rebuilding process continues this year, as everyday players Phillip Bergman, Houston Linden, and P.J. Wilson, along with starting pitcher Rigo Pineda, are now gone. Replacing them are a handful of Rule 5 scrubs. The Phenomenauts failed to make a single meaningful acquisition to their major league squad. In-season promotions to Joe Bacsik or B.C. Mota should help, but there's a decent chance neither of them will be called up, since the Phenomenauts don't figure to come close to contending this season. Philadelphia fans should expect a long season.
Prediction: 54-108, worst record in the AL.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
NL South Preview: Season 8
St. Louis Greys: Season 7 Record 92-70
Having fully rebounded from the nadir it experienced in Season 4, Broadwayevans has guided his St. Louis Greys to three straight winning seasons including his second straight division title in season 7. Surprisingly, despite regularly being in contention for division titles since the inception of the league, the Greys enter season 8 with the second youngest lineup in the NL behind only the Okalahoma City Twins.
The team's offense last year was powered by a strong and patient sluggers that produced the most doubles and the second most walks in the NL The overall offensive line for the Greys last year was .269/.336/.450/.786 the final figure representing the third best OPS in the NL. The core of the team returns almost completely intact led by the dynamic young duo of slugging RF Bronson Ritz and by SS Vladimir Pichardo. Two potential wildcards are the possibility of improved performances from 2B Kris Dickey and 3B Louis Dispenza who have both been somewhat of disappointments to date. The remainder of the offense is led by mature hitters that uniformly produce average or above average offense.
The team's pitching was also firmly above average last year and led the NL in Strikeouts. The staff was powered by two of the best SP in the league last year in Howie Delasandro who had a 1.14 WHIP/2.96 ERA in 197.1 innings last year and perennial Cy Young contender John Carroll who tossed 266.2 innings of 1.19 WHIP/3.24 ERA ball last year. The Greys also received exemplary performances from 3 members of their bullpen. The rest of their staff was average to below average and the loss of Charles Ott could prove to be troublesome as the starting rotation was quite front loaded as is.
Overall, this team should continue to be strong led by a powerful offense and a solid, playoff optimized pitching staff. The loss of Ott probably is worth a game or two but further improvement from younger players should more than offset that loss.
Prediction: 95-67, another division championship
Iowa City Comics: Season 7 Record 89-73
Iowa City is known for two things: Kirk Ferentz and Chipper Velandia's exploits. Iowa City is quietly becoming the most recent version of the Oklahoma City Twins; good enough to compete for a playoff spot every year but not a threat to ever challenge for a 1 or 2 seed.
Despite the presence of the most feared hitter in the league, the Iowa offense overall was quite ordinary last year and was well below average on an absolute basis. While some of this can be explained by playing in a decided pitchers park, a .316 OBP can never be considered good. Only one player besides Chipper, RF Ricardo Rincon posted an OPS above .800 last year. As no major additions were made to the team, Stan Lennon is considered an improvement for 200 abs a season, marked improvement cannot be expected.
The pitching staff was able to take advantage of its surroundings and posted the fifth best WHIP at1.33 and 4th best ERA at 4.08 last year in the NL. The team received an otherworldly performance out of Felipe Olivo which can not be expected again. Otherwise, the team has a very good bullpen and a potent 1-2 SP combination in Joe Sanders and Sandy Price. An intriguing signing that could pay dividends is Manny Ellenwood whose extreme fly ball tendencies will be muted in Iowa City's cavernous surroundings.
Overall, I see last year as the high watermark as no significant improvements have been made and some regression to the mean is likely for a couple of players including Chipper Velandia.
Prediction: 82 wins, misses out on the wildcard
Oklahoma City Twins. : Season 7 Record 67-95
The Twins experienced their first season below 70 wins in season 7 and are in a full blown rebuilding process that figures to extend for at least another couple of years. Although statements were made that Oklahoma would be following a different template than previous versions of the team, it does appear to be focusing largely on pitching and on base percentage once again.
The offense was Juan Pierre-esque with a .322/.367 OBP/SLG line as a team. A decent portion of that number can be explained by the cavernous ballpark the team plays in but the majority has more to do with the talent on the team. The notable exception as a standout offensive performer was Felipe Perez' noteworthy season, and definitely the third best rookie season in the NL, leading the charge with a .311/.347/.511 line. Only one other hitter, the 1st baseman, had an OPS north of .800. As no significant offseason additions were made, it is unlikely that the offense will see much improvement.
Despite playing in an extreme pitchers park, Oklahoma City put up an ERA of 5.00 for the season which tied the now Ottawa Otters for third worst in the NL. This writer is assuming that the trio of Jesus Santos, D'Angelo Pascual, and Bobby Metzger will be called up after 20 games which should help to improve the performance of pitching unit as a whole. While there are some decent pitches in the bullpen, the rest of the starting staff does not inspire much confidence.
As Aaron Eckhart once said, "The Night is darkest just before the dawn". That seems apt for OKC right now.
Prediction: 60 wins, 3rd place
Monterrey Conquistadores: Season 7 Record 62-100
Monterrey, coming off of its fourth straight season with win totals in the 60s is a couple of years away from having one of the most feared pitching staffs in the NL. However, that will prove to be no solace this year as the team is likely to be worse in the short run. However, just one more year until Francisco Nunez debuts.
The offense still has some effective figures such as Jose Nieves, Hootie Medina, and Larry Womack though the majority of the team figures to be very good against LHP but below average against RHP. The loss of Clayton Mack should also prove to be big as he was a great source of offense for the team. There is no reason to expect the offense will improve on its .725 OPS this year.
Monterrey's pitching figures to be worse this year than it was last year. The team lost Pat Velarde to Albuquerque and Kris Romero to Vancouver representing 2 of their top 5 pitchers from last year. Additionally, I'll bet anyone $20 that Robinson Dickey does not produce another 50 innings of sub 3 era pitching. Anyone. The rest of the pitching staff should be unremarkable although Pablo Garces can be expected to have better performance some point soon.
This year isn't going to be pretty for Monterrey though they are well positioned to be a major, if not the major, player in the international market.
Prediction: 57 Wins Last place in the division again.
Having fully rebounded from the nadir it experienced in Season 4, Broadwayevans has guided his St. Louis Greys to three straight winning seasons including his second straight division title in season 7. Surprisingly, despite regularly being in contention for division titles since the inception of the league, the Greys enter season 8 with the second youngest lineup in the NL behind only the Okalahoma City Twins.
The team's offense last year was powered by a strong and patient sluggers that produced the most doubles and the second most walks in the NL The overall offensive line for the Greys last year was .269/.336/.450/.786 the final figure representing the third best OPS in the NL. The core of the team returns almost completely intact led by the dynamic young duo of slugging RF Bronson Ritz and by SS Vladimir Pichardo. Two potential wildcards are the possibility of improved performances from 2B Kris Dickey and 3B Louis Dispenza who have both been somewhat of disappointments to date. The remainder of the offense is led by mature hitters that uniformly produce average or above average offense.
The team's pitching was also firmly above average last year and led the NL in Strikeouts. The staff was powered by two of the best SP in the league last year in Howie Delasandro who had a 1.14 WHIP/2.96 ERA in 197.1 innings last year and perennial Cy Young contender John Carroll who tossed 266.2 innings of 1.19 WHIP/3.24 ERA ball last year. The Greys also received exemplary performances from 3 members of their bullpen. The rest of their staff was average to below average and the loss of Charles Ott could prove to be troublesome as the starting rotation was quite front loaded as is.
Overall, this team should continue to be strong led by a powerful offense and a solid, playoff optimized pitching staff. The loss of Ott probably is worth a game or two but further improvement from younger players should more than offset that loss.
Prediction: 95-67, another division championship
Iowa City Comics: Season 7 Record 89-73
Iowa City is known for two things: Kirk Ferentz and Chipper Velandia's exploits. Iowa City is quietly becoming the most recent version of the Oklahoma City Twins; good enough to compete for a playoff spot every year but not a threat to ever challenge for a 1 or 2 seed.
Despite the presence of the most feared hitter in the league, the Iowa offense overall was quite ordinary last year and was well below average on an absolute basis. While some of this can be explained by playing in a decided pitchers park, a .316 OBP can never be considered good. Only one player besides Chipper, RF Ricardo Rincon posted an OPS above .800 last year. As no major additions were made to the team, Stan Lennon is considered an improvement for 200 abs a season, marked improvement cannot be expected.
The pitching staff was able to take advantage of its surroundings and posted the fifth best WHIP at1.33 and 4th best ERA at 4.08 last year in the NL. The team received an otherworldly performance out of Felipe Olivo which can not be expected again. Otherwise, the team has a very good bullpen and a potent 1-2 SP combination in Joe Sanders and Sandy Price. An intriguing signing that could pay dividends is Manny Ellenwood whose extreme fly ball tendencies will be muted in Iowa City's cavernous surroundings.
Overall, I see last year as the high watermark as no significant improvements have been made and some regression to the mean is likely for a couple of players including Chipper Velandia.
Prediction: 82 wins, misses out on the wildcard
Oklahoma City Twins. : Season 7 Record 67-95
The Twins experienced their first season below 70 wins in season 7 and are in a full blown rebuilding process that figures to extend for at least another couple of years. Although statements were made that Oklahoma would be following a different template than previous versions of the team, it does appear to be focusing largely on pitching and on base percentage once again.
The offense was Juan Pierre-esque with a .322/.367 OBP/SLG line as a team. A decent portion of that number can be explained by the cavernous ballpark the team plays in but the majority has more to do with the talent on the team. The notable exception as a standout offensive performer was Felipe Perez' noteworthy season, and definitely the third best rookie season in the NL, leading the charge with a .311/.347/.511 line. Only one other hitter, the 1st baseman, had an OPS north of .800. As no significant offseason additions were made, it is unlikely that the offense will see much improvement.
Despite playing in an extreme pitchers park, Oklahoma City put up an ERA of 5.00 for the season which tied the now Ottawa Otters for third worst in the NL. This writer is assuming that the trio of Jesus Santos, D'Angelo Pascual, and Bobby Metzger will be called up after 20 games which should help to improve the performance of pitching unit as a whole. While there are some decent pitches in the bullpen, the rest of the starting staff does not inspire much confidence.
As Aaron Eckhart once said, "The Night is darkest just before the dawn". That seems apt for OKC right now.
Prediction: 60 wins, 3rd place
Monterrey Conquistadores: Season 7 Record 62-100
Monterrey, coming off of its fourth straight season with win totals in the 60s is a couple of years away from having one of the most feared pitching staffs in the NL. However, that will prove to be no solace this year as the team is likely to be worse in the short run. However, just one more year until Francisco Nunez debuts.
The offense still has some effective figures such as Jose Nieves, Hootie Medina, and Larry Womack though the majority of the team figures to be very good against LHP but below average against RHP. The loss of Clayton Mack should also prove to be big as he was a great source of offense for the team. There is no reason to expect the offense will improve on its .725 OPS this year.
Monterrey's pitching figures to be worse this year than it was last year. The team lost Pat Velarde to Albuquerque and Kris Romero to Vancouver representing 2 of their top 5 pitchers from last year. Additionally, I'll bet anyone $20 that Robinson Dickey does not produce another 50 innings of sub 3 era pitching. Anyone. The rest of the pitching staff should be unremarkable although Pablo Garces can be expected to have better performance some point soon.
This year isn't going to be pretty for Monterrey though they are well positioned to be a major, if not the major, player in the international market.
Prediction: 57 Wins Last place in the division again.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
AL South Preview: Season 8
Florida (Season 7: 88-74, AL South Champs)
In what is easily the most confusing part of the off-season, Florida passed on their option to sign Closer Philip Byrd to a guaranteed $14.7mm over 2 years (with mutual options for $21/3), and instead guaranteed him $29.35mm over 3 years (with mutual options for $37.9mm/4). GM thegeneral defended the move by noting that "He was turning 37 and I didn't yet know how much his ratings would drop this year, and didn't want to guarantee a 3rd year when he might be completely unusable by that point. So I paid a pretty decent premium to see his ratings progression". Well played GM, well played.
And in case it wasn't clear from the above, Florida confirmed that they are in it to win it once again, inking veteran RF Moose Roberts, who should help at the plate, and bringing back RP Izzy Richard, a very solid bullpen arm. But that's kind of where it ends, as Florida is pretty much returning the same team (a year older), but with Moose in RF (which helps). With the extra 10mm spent in player payroll, it's reasonable to expect that the Cottonmouth faithful expected more, but in the end, it should suffice for another division title.
Prediction: 88-74, Division Champs, wins their first round in the playoffs.
Nashv... Tampa Bay (Season 7: 84-78)
In what is easily the most annoying, and perhaps 2nd most confusing move of the offseason, the Nashville Twang (the revered Twang even) are now... the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Where did the REAL Devil Rays go? And why? Who knows, but it's certain that Whang enjoyed being a Twang so much that he retired along with the franchise, rather than face life Twangless.
Having said that, it would appear that new Twang Rays (tm) GM sl__72 is showing savvy financial restraint, as he let a number of veteran innings walk out the door: Dennys Duffy (waiting by the phone), Jose Cruz (ANA) & Pasqual Vazquez (NY2) are all gone, with no FA replacement. If you recall, this was a young team last year - one that failed to live upto expectations, so it's reasonable to expect that more young'ins are ready to fill the gaps left by the veterans. Still, no big FA's signed, and no real improvements made leaves them short of the division title by a smidge.
Prediction: 87-75, out of the playoffs
Richmond (Season 7: 84-78)
Richmond was easily the story of last years regular season, as they soared into playoff contention, winning 20 games on top of Season 6, but ultimately falling just short of a wildcard spot in the end. In GM mattwithanh's 4th season, he continued to impress as his "tenure" high 84 wins came tied to a nice low 63mm player payroll budget figure.
So how low can you limbo? Pretty low in Richmond, as the player payroll is now even tighter, down to a skinny 55mm. It's looking like the AL South is soon gonna get "painted purple" (tm), but the question is... how soon? The thing about being thrifty with payroll is that you have limited resources to improve quickly, but it seems this team has made the most of it, as just under 11mm brought this team 4 very decent FA's: ClA Otis Stein, 3B and World Champion Veteran John Hardy, Andy Epstein & Scott Thornton.
But from where I sit, I don't think that quite covers it. The team still has a number of it's FA's unsigned (Jimmie Torres, Claude Kydd for example), doesn't have any big impact AAA guys waiting to come up, and a lingering impression that this team played a little over it's head last year (pythag says they outperformed their expected result by 4 wins).
Prediction: 80-82
San Antonio (Season 7: 77-85)
I'm not falling for it again. First I called them the worst team in the AL two seasons ago, only to watch them win 75, then low-balled them again before they came back and posted a 77 in Season 7. So this time I'm predicting at least 79 wins... maybe 80 (their roster has not factored into my decision, I should probably point out that)
Having looked at their roster, I can gladly report that I'm probably not too off-base. Rigo Pineda, he of the high rating and mercurial performance signed for a VERY generous 9.5mm/1 year contract. It's also not unreasonable to expect that Tony Clarkson could make his ML debut this season. And granted, while the team did let some FA's walk (Vic Hardtke is waiting for your call!), they shouldn't have too much trouble returning to their high 70's win range.
Prediction: 79-... no, 80 wins!
In what is easily the most confusing part of the off-season, Florida passed on their option to sign Closer Philip Byrd to a guaranteed $14.7mm over 2 years (with mutual options for $21/3), and instead guaranteed him $29.35mm over 3 years (with mutual options for $37.9mm/4). GM thegeneral defended the move by noting that "He was turning 37 and I didn't yet know how much his ratings would drop this year, and didn't want to guarantee a 3rd year when he might be completely unusable by that point. So I paid a pretty decent premium to see his ratings progression". Well played GM, well played.And in case it wasn't clear from the above, Florida confirmed that they are in it to win it once again, inking veteran RF Moose Roberts, who should help at the plate, and bringing back RP Izzy Richard, a very solid bullpen arm. But that's kind of where it ends, as Florida is pretty much returning the same team (a year older), but with Moose in RF (which helps). With the extra 10mm spent in player payroll, it's reasonable to expect that the Cottonmouth faithful expected more, but in the end, it should suffice for another division title.
Prediction: 88-74, Division Champs, wins their first round in the playoffs.
Nashv... Tampa Bay (Season 7: 84-78)
In what is easily the most annoying, and perhaps 2nd most confusing move of the offseason, the Nashville Twang (the revered Twang even) are now... the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Where did the REAL Devil Rays go? And why? Who knows, but it's certain that Whang enjoyed being a Twang so much that he retired along with the franchise, rather than face life Twangless.Having said that, it would appear that new Twang Rays (tm) GM sl__72 is showing savvy financial restraint, as he let a number of veteran innings walk out the door: Dennys Duffy (waiting by the phone), Jose Cruz (ANA) & Pasqual Vazquez (NY2) are all gone, with no FA replacement. If you recall, this was a young team last year - one that failed to live upto expectations, so it's reasonable to expect that more young'ins are ready to fill the gaps left by the veterans. Still, no big FA's signed, and no real improvements made leaves them short of the division title by a smidge.
Prediction: 87-75, out of the playoffs
Richmond (Season 7: 84-78)
Richmond was easily the story of last years regular season, as they soared into playoff contention, winning 20 games on top of Season 6, but ultimately falling just short of a wildcard spot in the end. In GM mattwithanh's 4th season, he continued to impress as his "tenure" high 84 wins came tied to a nice low 63mm player payroll budget figure.So how low can you limbo? Pretty low in Richmond, as the player payroll is now even tighter, down to a skinny 55mm. It's looking like the AL South is soon gonna get "painted purple" (tm), but the question is... how soon? The thing about being thrifty with payroll is that you have limited resources to improve quickly, but it seems this team has made the most of it, as just under 11mm brought this team 4 very decent FA's: ClA Otis Stein, 3B and World Champion Veteran John Hardy, Andy Epstein & Scott Thornton.
But from where I sit, I don't think that quite covers it. The team still has a number of it's FA's unsigned (Jimmie Torres, Claude Kydd for example), doesn't have any big impact AAA guys waiting to come up, and a lingering impression that this team played a little over it's head last year (pythag says they outperformed their expected result by 4 wins).
Prediction: 80-82
San Antonio (Season 7: 77-85)
I'm not falling for it again. First I called them the worst team in the AL two seasons ago, only to watch them win 75, then low-balled them again before they came back and posted a 77 in Season 7. So this time I'm predicting at least 79 wins... maybe 80 (their roster has not factored into my decision, I should probably point out that)Having looked at their roster, I can gladly report that I'm probably not too off-base. Rigo Pineda, he of the high rating and mercurial performance signed for a VERY generous 9.5mm/1 year contract. It's also not unreasonable to expect that Tony Clarkson could make his ML debut this season. And granted, while the team did let some FA's walk (Vic Hardtke is waiting for your call!), they shouldn't have too much trouble returning to their high 70's win range.
Prediction: 79-... no, 80 wins!
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Updated: Top 10 Catchers
10. J.D. Pettyjohn: The 10th spot was certainly difficult to fill; few candidates really stuck out as deserving. In the end, Pettyjohn's balanced skill set separated himself from the rest of the pack. Pettyjohn's isolated discipline of .091 (OBP-BA) is very good, and the rest of the package at the plate (good contact skills, decent power) is solid as well. As a catcher, his greatest asset is a strong, accurate throwing arm. He's thrown out 26.2% of steal attempts against him, above average in Gleeman World. He's also a good pitch caller, and able to play almost every day. If there's a knock against Pettyjohn, he doesn't really hit for average (.266 lifetime), and he's a bit of a health risk. Still, a nice player to have on your team.
9. Tomas Alvarado: If his arm were better, Alvarado would be comfortably higher than Pettyjohn. As it stands, there's little separating them, if anything at all. Alvarado's bat profiles a bit like Ray Durham or Johnny Damon, in that he hits for a solid average, draws his share of walks, and hits the occasional long ball. Of course, he's a stocky, slow catcher, so the comparisons end there. Alvarado caught only 10.6% of would-be base thieves last season, albeit in a career-worst season. His pitch calling is adequate, but nothing special, and he's only able to play in about 130 games per season. Still, he's a serviceable catcher that's an asset at the plate. There's definitely value in that.
8. Olmedo Park: Despite an off-year offensively for Park, scouts insist that last year was just a fluke. Even so, he was still better than your average catcher at the plate, which gives you an idea of what kind of hitter Park is. Park doesn't have much raw power, and doesn't have particularly good bat control, but he has an uncanny ability to drive the ball into the gaps (and even over the fence) against right-handed pitchers, while still hitting fairly well against lefties. He also has a very good batting eye. Park's glove, however, isn't on par with his bat. He does have a decent arm, but his mechanics are poor, leading to errant throws that tend to tail away from his target. His pitch-calling is good enough where he's not going to be moved off of the position, but he's not always on the same page as the pitching staff. Still, the overall package makes him a player you want on your team.
7. Ernest Crawford: Crawford is a bright spot in a lineup that struggles to score runs. He's an excellent line drive hitter that makes consistent contact, capable of hitting around .300 every season. He's also a legitimate power threat, slugging .453 in 1913 career at bats in a park that suppresses home runs. He's popular with his pitchers, and has a solid arm (although a tad inaccurate at times). While not a star, he'll produce enough to start on a championship-caliber team.
6. Bernie Guerrero: Guerrero's an ideal switch hitter, in that his approach is equally excellent from both the right and left sides. He's got a discriminating eye at the plate, and has good power as well. His arm strength is slipping a bit, but the overall package ranks Guerrero as roughly average at the position. Guerrero surprisingly won his first Gold Glove last season; don't expect it to happen again. A very balanced player; not a star, but a guy who can contribute in many different ways.
5. Derek Reynolds: Reynolds doesn't have the track record of the other players on this list. He's just 23 years old, and has less than 200 major league games under his belt. As a hitter, however, this ranking might actually underrate him. His power is on par with anyone else at the position, and his pitch recognition is terrific. He does have a significant platoon split, faring better against southpaws. His defense could still use some work, although it's not all that bad. His arm is mediocre, but not terrible, and still improving, and his pitch calling is playable. He's not quite in elite territory yet, but as the youngest player on the list, he'll almost certainly move up as he continues to improve.
4. Derek Page: Page's skills behind the dish are ordinary; his arm strength and accuracy are both fair, and his pitch calling skills are solid, but nothing special. Page's bat, however, profiles more like a first baseman; he has very good power, hits laser beams against both lefties and righties, doesn't strike out a lot, and shows solid discipline at the plate. Page doesn't have quite enough power or plate discipline to become a superstar, but his well-rounded skill set should age fairly well. Expect more of the same for a few more seasons.
3. Josh Wagner: Wagner's best asset defensively is definitely his arm; he has a quick release and great arm action, as well as sound footwork, resulting in consistently strong, accurate throws. He's caught nearly 30% (29.7) of would-be stealers, a rate that compares favorably to the vast majority of Gleeman World's catchers. His hitting is even better; his .387 career OBP is better than any other catcher in the league still in his prime (sorry, Stan Lennon) save for the guys ranked ahead of him on this list. Wagner also possesses excellent power; for his career, he's homered once every 16.4 at-bats, which translates to a bit over 33 homers per 550 at bats. Unfortunately, Wagner's never approached that total; his career high in at-bats is 421. Better durability would make Wagner a perennial All-Star. For now, he'll settle for being an underrated weapon.
2. Richard Maxwell: Last year's #1, and with his bat, it wasn't close. Maxwell is a lifetime .320/.393/.650 hitter. He rarely strikes out, has monstrous power, crushes righties, and possesses a good, if not great batting eye. He's also a solid defensive player; his arm is strong and very accurate, and his pitch calling is at least adequate. His sole weakness is his durability; Maxwell wears down easily. He's good for about 350 at-bats or so before fatigue gets the better of him. Still, Maxwell is clearly superior compared to anyone else preceding him on this list. However...
1. Edwin Hogan: The new #1 is arguably the best pure hitter in the World. Hogan's glovework, especially now, is questionable. His arm is accurate, but no longer has the zip it once had, and his pitch calling is okay, but nothing to write home about. Where he truly shines isn't behind the plate, but at the plate. Hogan's an excellent contact hitter with very good power, but he's taken his raw tools to another level entirely; he spatters line drives indiscriminately against both lefties and righties, and swings at bad pitches as often as Barry Bonds. His swing is flawless. He's a .371/.466/.653 lifetime hitter, making a run at .400 last year before falling just short (.397). You could discount his numbers a bit for playing in Albuquerque, but who cares? He's still Michelangelo with the bat, adequate with the glove, and unlike Maxwell, able to play almost every day. That's plenty enough to make him the top catcher in the world.
9. Tomas Alvarado: If his arm were better, Alvarado would be comfortably higher than Pettyjohn. As it stands, there's little separating them, if anything at all. Alvarado's bat profiles a bit like Ray Durham or Johnny Damon, in that he hits for a solid average, draws his share of walks, and hits the occasional long ball. Of course, he's a stocky, slow catcher, so the comparisons end there. Alvarado caught only 10.6% of would-be base thieves last season, albeit in a career-worst season. His pitch calling is adequate, but nothing special, and he's only able to play in about 130 games per season. Still, he's a serviceable catcher that's an asset at the plate. There's definitely value in that.
8. Olmedo Park: Despite an off-year offensively for Park, scouts insist that last year was just a fluke. Even so, he was still better than your average catcher at the plate, which gives you an idea of what kind of hitter Park is. Park doesn't have much raw power, and doesn't have particularly good bat control, but he has an uncanny ability to drive the ball into the gaps (and even over the fence) against right-handed pitchers, while still hitting fairly well against lefties. He also has a very good batting eye. Park's glove, however, isn't on par with his bat. He does have a decent arm, but his mechanics are poor, leading to errant throws that tend to tail away from his target. His pitch-calling is good enough where he's not going to be moved off of the position, but he's not always on the same page as the pitching staff. Still, the overall package makes him a player you want on your team.
7. Ernest Crawford: Crawford is a bright spot in a lineup that struggles to score runs. He's an excellent line drive hitter that makes consistent contact, capable of hitting around .300 every season. He's also a legitimate power threat, slugging .453 in 1913 career at bats in a park that suppresses home runs. He's popular with his pitchers, and has a solid arm (although a tad inaccurate at times). While not a star, he'll produce enough to start on a championship-caliber team.
6. Bernie Guerrero: Guerrero's an ideal switch hitter, in that his approach is equally excellent from both the right and left sides. He's got a discriminating eye at the plate, and has good power as well. His arm strength is slipping a bit, but the overall package ranks Guerrero as roughly average at the position. Guerrero surprisingly won his first Gold Glove last season; don't expect it to happen again. A very balanced player; not a star, but a guy who can contribute in many different ways.
5. Derek Reynolds: Reynolds doesn't have the track record of the other players on this list. He's just 23 years old, and has less than 200 major league games under his belt. As a hitter, however, this ranking might actually underrate him. His power is on par with anyone else at the position, and his pitch recognition is terrific. He does have a significant platoon split, faring better against southpaws. His defense could still use some work, although it's not all that bad. His arm is mediocre, but not terrible, and still improving, and his pitch calling is playable. He's not quite in elite territory yet, but as the youngest player on the list, he'll almost certainly move up as he continues to improve.
4. Derek Page: Page's skills behind the dish are ordinary; his arm strength and accuracy are both fair, and his pitch calling skills are solid, but nothing special. Page's bat, however, profiles more like a first baseman; he has very good power, hits laser beams against both lefties and righties, doesn't strike out a lot, and shows solid discipline at the plate. Page doesn't have quite enough power or plate discipline to become a superstar, but his well-rounded skill set should age fairly well. Expect more of the same for a few more seasons.
3. Josh Wagner: Wagner's best asset defensively is definitely his arm; he has a quick release and great arm action, as well as sound footwork, resulting in consistently strong, accurate throws. He's caught nearly 30% (29.7) of would-be stealers, a rate that compares favorably to the vast majority of Gleeman World's catchers. His hitting is even better; his .387 career OBP is better than any other catcher in the league still in his prime (sorry, Stan Lennon) save for the guys ranked ahead of him on this list. Wagner also possesses excellent power; for his career, he's homered once every 16.4 at-bats, which translates to a bit over 33 homers per 550 at bats. Unfortunately, Wagner's never approached that total; his career high in at-bats is 421. Better durability would make Wagner a perennial All-Star. For now, he'll settle for being an underrated weapon.
2. Richard Maxwell: Last year's #1, and with his bat, it wasn't close. Maxwell is a lifetime .320/.393/.650 hitter. He rarely strikes out, has monstrous power, crushes righties, and possesses a good, if not great batting eye. He's also a solid defensive player; his arm is strong and very accurate, and his pitch calling is at least adequate. His sole weakness is his durability; Maxwell wears down easily. He's good for about 350 at-bats or so before fatigue gets the better of him. Still, Maxwell is clearly superior compared to anyone else preceding him on this list. However...
1. Edwin Hogan: The new #1 is arguably the best pure hitter in the World. Hogan's glovework, especially now, is questionable. His arm is accurate, but no longer has the zip it once had, and his pitch calling is okay, but nothing to write home about. Where he truly shines isn't behind the plate, but at the plate. Hogan's an excellent contact hitter with very good power, but he's taken his raw tools to another level entirely; he spatters line drives indiscriminately against both lefties and righties, and swings at bad pitches as often as Barry Bonds. His swing is flawless. He's a .371/.466/.653 lifetime hitter, making a run at .400 last year before falling just short (.397). You could discount his numbers a bit for playing in Albuquerque, but who cares? He's still Michelangelo with the bat, adequate with the glove, and unlike Maxwell, able to play almost every day. That's plenty enough to make him the top catcher in the world.
Predictions - How we fared
As we gear up for another season - this time with previews done once again AFTER spring training! - I figured I'd take a brief walk down memory lane to see how our AL prognosticators fared. Did we outdo Phil the "prognosticator of prognosticators"? Did we outdo the shwam? Were we as bad as Bill Simmons? Were we as good as Bill Simmons' wife? See below:
Prognosticator: sickchangeup
AL West
Albuquerque: "93 wins, Division Champs"
Reality: 96 wins, Division Champs. Guy Wise did in fact make an appearance for some bonus prognosticator points.
Cheyenne: "88-74, missing the playoffs by 1 game"
Reality: 74 wins, missed the playoffs by 11 games. Life stopped being good in Cheyenne.
Los Angeles: "Welcome back to 75 win territory"
Reality: 66 wins. Again. Those puzzling moves turned out even worse than I expected.
Las Vegas: "69 wins, no trades until after the All-Star break (please) "
Reality: 58 wins, but far more importantly - no trades until after the All-Star break, and only 1 trade all year! Bravo!!
AL North
Minnesota: "110 wins, AL North Champions"
Reality: 107 wins, AL North Champions. Not exactly a hard one.
Syracuse: "89 wins, wild card spot"
Reality: 83 wins, missed the wild card spot by 2 games. Blame Buffalo, not me.
Buffalo: "83 wins, no playoffs"
Reality: 102 wins and they made the playoffs. Probably my largest oversight, which wound up affecting the win total of about 5 other contending teams.
Montreal: "55 wins, worst record in the AL "
Reality: 69 wins, so close. Or to put it a more accurate way - not close at all. I'm starting to think that calling a team out as "the worst" in our pre-season predictions actually encourages them to do better. We'll keep an eye on this theory in Season 8.
AL South
Nashville: "Division Champions, 91 wins, first round exit without additional pitching help"
Reality: 84 wins, missing the playoffs by 1 game. Could have used the pitching help.
Florida: "81 wins, no playoffs."
Reality: 88 wins, Division Champs!
Richmond: "71 wins, not one of the five worst records in the AL "
Reality: An amazing 84 wins, also missing the playoffs by 1 game! Hardy had a very solid impact, and Trinidad did in fact show up for a cup of coffee. Not one of the worst 5 records, for the bonus prognosticator points.
San Antonio: "70 wins"
Reality: 77 wins, once again outpacing my predictions. Time to adjust for me!
Prognosticator: baseballers
AL East
New York: "110 wins, AL East Champs"
Reality: 108 wins, division title!
Boston: "98 wins, Wildcard berth"
Reality: 85 wins, wild card berth. 13 wins off the pace, but they still made it.
Philadelphia: "82-80, at least 6 or 7 games out of the final playoff spot"
Reality: 56 wins, worst record in the AL. 29 games out of the final playoff spot. Uuugly.
Pittsburgh: "65-97, last place in the division"
Reality: 80 wins, was within arms (no pun intended) reach of the playoffs.
In all, sickchangeup definitely proved himself the superior prognosticator this year, although it was more due to his fellow prognosticators awful awful effort. Sick made the easy plays (ALB, MIN), whiffed on the hard ones (BUF, MON), pointed out a bunch of correct little things and came within ballpark range (outfield bleachers, last row?) on most other things. Perhaps The Shwam?
For his part, baseballers did correctly pick the Division Champs, but was 12-26 games off on the other three teams. Peeyew, that officially earns him the title of Bill Simmons! Which of course, shouldn't stop him from doing it again next year!
Prognosticator: sickchangeup
AL West
Albuquerque: "93 wins, Division Champs"
Reality: 96 wins, Division Champs. Guy Wise did in fact make an appearance for some bonus prognosticator points.
Cheyenne: "88-74, missing the playoffs by 1 game"
Reality: 74 wins, missed the playoffs by 11 games. Life stopped being good in Cheyenne.
Los Angeles: "Welcome back to 75 win territory"
Reality: 66 wins. Again. Those puzzling moves turned out even worse than I expected.
Las Vegas: "69 wins, no trades until after the All-Star break (please) "
Reality: 58 wins, but far more importantly - no trades until after the All-Star break, and only 1 trade all year! Bravo!!
AL North
Minnesota: "110 wins, AL North Champions"
Reality: 107 wins, AL North Champions. Not exactly a hard one.
Syracuse: "89 wins, wild card spot"
Reality: 83 wins, missed the wild card spot by 2 games. Blame Buffalo, not me.
Buffalo: "83 wins, no playoffs"
Reality: 102 wins and they made the playoffs. Probably my largest oversight, which wound up affecting the win total of about 5 other contending teams.
Montreal: "55 wins, worst record in the AL "
Reality: 69 wins, so close. Or to put it a more accurate way - not close at all. I'm starting to think that calling a team out as "the worst" in our pre-season predictions actually encourages them to do better. We'll keep an eye on this theory in Season 8.
AL South
Nashville: "Division Champions, 91 wins, first round exit without additional pitching help"
Reality: 84 wins, missing the playoffs by 1 game. Could have used the pitching help.
Florida: "81 wins, no playoffs."
Reality: 88 wins, Division Champs!
Richmond: "71 wins, not one of the five worst records in the AL "
Reality: An amazing 84 wins, also missing the playoffs by 1 game! Hardy had a very solid impact, and Trinidad did in fact show up for a cup of coffee. Not one of the worst 5 records, for the bonus prognosticator points.
San Antonio: "70 wins"
Reality: 77 wins, once again outpacing my predictions. Time to adjust for me!
Prognosticator: baseballers
AL East
New York: "110 wins, AL East Champs"
Reality: 108 wins, division title!
Boston: "98 wins, Wildcard berth"
Reality: 85 wins, wild card berth. 13 wins off the pace, but they still made it.
Philadelphia: "82-80, at least 6 or 7 games out of the final playoff spot"
Reality: 56 wins, worst record in the AL. 29 games out of the final playoff spot. Uuugly.
Pittsburgh: "65-97, last place in the division"
Reality: 80 wins, was within arms (no pun intended) reach of the playoffs.
In all, sickchangeup definitely proved himself the superior prognosticator this year, although it was more due to his fellow prognosticators awful awful effort. Sick made the easy plays (ALB, MIN), whiffed on the hard ones (BUF, MON), pointed out a bunch of correct little things and came within ballpark range (outfield bleachers, last row?) on most other things. Perhaps The Shwam?
For his part, baseballers did correctly pick the Division Champs, but was 12-26 games off on the other three teams. Peeyew, that officially earns him the title of Bill Simmons! Which of course, shouldn't stop him from doing it again next year!
Monday, August 4, 2008
Updated: Top 5 Designated Hitters
I figured I'd pick this series up where Ben left off, since it hadn't been updated in a while. Without further ado, here goes:
*Note: Prospects aren't included, since I have no idea which ones will play this year.
5. Thumper Neagle: After slugging over .650 in both Seasons 4 and 5, Neagle's power has gone south; his SLG% of .530 and .510 in Seasons 6 and 7 are respectable, but well under his career .582 mark. Scouts say the power is still there, but it might be time to wonder whether this is an anomaly, or Neagle's true talent level. Neagle's calling card is his prodigious power and excellent bat control; he strikes out in less than 16% of his at-bats despite his tendency to hack at just about everything. As a result, Neagle doesn't walk very much; his .352 OBP is a bit low for a DH. Still 29, there's a decent chance that Neagle returns to his perch near the top of the HR leaderboard.
4. Charlie Stevens: After spending two seasons as a terrible 1B for the defensively challenged Devil Rays (now the Rincons), Stevens was mercifully traded this past season to an AL team with a vacancy at DH. Predictably, he kept on mashing, hitting .363/.434/.539 in Dodger Stadium. His credentials match up favorably with almost any hitter in Gleeman World, but he only ranks 4th on this list because there's been whispers that Stevens is clearly past his prime. Scouts have noticed that his bat is certainly slowing down, and he's no longer as patient as he was in the past. Stevens is 35 years old and has drawn negative reviews from coaches for his makeup. He's also no longer able to handle everyday duties as a DH. Despite all of this, he's still enough of a hitter to make this list.
3. Hector Soto: Soto has been remarkably consistent, posting OPSes of .951, .947, and .929 in the last 3 seasons. He's a very well-rounded hitter, with good contact skills, very good power, and a discriminating batting eye. He's a notorious lefty killer as well, his OPS is almost 200 points higher against southpaws (1.054) than against righties (.865). He's fairly durable, averaging over 600 plate appearances every season in the majors. His lack of weaknesses as a hitter place him on the list, but his lack of any extraordinary skill keep him from ranking higher.
2. Matthew McCovey: He possesses almost an identical skill set as Soto (above), but there are a few subtle differences that set them apart. While Soto is slightly better at making contact, McCovey possesses more power. McCovey also doesn't have as much of a platoon split as Soto does. McCovey also has a slightly better batting eye. Other than that, they're almost identical; they're the exact same age (27), they're equally durable, they both have makeup issues, and are both failed catchers. You can expect a bit more from McCovey going forward, but the difference is minute, unlike the difference between McCovey/Soto and #1...
1. Jumbo Rijo: The top spot was once inhabited by All-World hitter Edwin Hogan, but a combination of Ned Hammond's decline and McCovey's emergence led to Hogan's move to catcher. That leaves Rijo, the pride of the Fatboys. Playfully nicknamed "Jumbo" by his teammates (we won't ask why, since at 6'2'' and 193 lbs, he's not particularly big for an athlete), Rijo's prodigious power earned him Rookie of the Year honors in Season 5, and top 5 finishes in MVP voting in each of his 3 ML seasons. His career .635 SLG easily trumps anyone else on this list, and his .369 OBP is nothing to sneeze at, either. The only thing that jeopardizes his spot as the top DH is his own catching skill; unlike the other players on this list, Rijo is actually a decent defensive player, able to hold his own as a catcher. If the Fatboys decide to jettison Bernie Guerrero, Rijo would become the starter. Until that happens, "Jumbo" will remain as Gleeman World's premier DH.
*Note: Prospects aren't included, since I have no idea which ones will play this year.
5. Thumper Neagle: After slugging over .650 in both Seasons 4 and 5, Neagle's power has gone south; his SLG% of .530 and .510 in Seasons 6 and 7 are respectable, but well under his career .582 mark. Scouts say the power is still there, but it might be time to wonder whether this is an anomaly, or Neagle's true talent level. Neagle's calling card is his prodigious power and excellent bat control; he strikes out in less than 16% of his at-bats despite his tendency to hack at just about everything. As a result, Neagle doesn't walk very much; his .352 OBP is a bit low for a DH. Still 29, there's a decent chance that Neagle returns to his perch near the top of the HR leaderboard.
4. Charlie Stevens: After spending two seasons as a terrible 1B for the defensively challenged Devil Rays (now the Rincons), Stevens was mercifully traded this past season to an AL team with a vacancy at DH. Predictably, he kept on mashing, hitting .363/.434/.539 in Dodger Stadium. His credentials match up favorably with almost any hitter in Gleeman World, but he only ranks 4th on this list because there's been whispers that Stevens is clearly past his prime. Scouts have noticed that his bat is certainly slowing down, and he's no longer as patient as he was in the past. Stevens is 35 years old and has drawn negative reviews from coaches for his makeup. He's also no longer able to handle everyday duties as a DH. Despite all of this, he's still enough of a hitter to make this list.
3. Hector Soto: Soto has been remarkably consistent, posting OPSes of .951, .947, and .929 in the last 3 seasons. He's a very well-rounded hitter, with good contact skills, very good power, and a discriminating batting eye. He's a notorious lefty killer as well, his OPS is almost 200 points higher against southpaws (1.054) than against righties (.865). He's fairly durable, averaging over 600 plate appearances every season in the majors. His lack of weaknesses as a hitter place him on the list, but his lack of any extraordinary skill keep him from ranking higher.
2. Matthew McCovey: He possesses almost an identical skill set as Soto (above), but there are a few subtle differences that set them apart. While Soto is slightly better at making contact, McCovey possesses more power. McCovey also doesn't have as much of a platoon split as Soto does. McCovey also has a slightly better batting eye. Other than that, they're almost identical; they're the exact same age (27), they're equally durable, they both have makeup issues, and are both failed catchers. You can expect a bit more from McCovey going forward, but the difference is minute, unlike the difference between McCovey/Soto and #1...
1. Jumbo Rijo: The top spot was once inhabited by All-World hitter Edwin Hogan, but a combination of Ned Hammond's decline and McCovey's emergence led to Hogan's move to catcher. That leaves Rijo, the pride of the Fatboys. Playfully nicknamed "Jumbo" by his teammates (we won't ask why, since at 6'2'' and 193 lbs, he's not particularly big for an athlete), Rijo's prodigious power earned him Rookie of the Year honors in Season 5, and top 5 finishes in MVP voting in each of his 3 ML seasons. His career .635 SLG easily trumps anyone else on this list, and his .369 OBP is nothing to sneeze at, either. The only thing that jeopardizes his spot as the top DH is his own catching skill; unlike the other players on this list, Rijo is actually a decent defensive player, able to hold his own as a catcher. If the Fatboys decide to jettison Bernie Guerrero, Rijo would become the starter. Until that happens, "Jumbo" will remain as Gleeman World's premier DH.
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