NL South Preview, Season 18

Oklahoma City Twins (NL) garlogic View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 90-72, Division Champions, lost to the New York Yankees in the Play-in Series
EXP W%: .536 (projected out to 87-75 over 162 games)
Notable acquisitions: LF Marino Reyes, P Moe Farley
Notable departures: P Vic Lopez, 1B Juan Lira, CF Bernie Crespo, LF Mendy Knight

In one of the most predictable player pairings (try saying that three times fast) in Gleeman World history, the Twins traded for the speedy Marino Reyes. He'll fit right in as the best baserunner on the fastest team in baseball (7 different players stole 30+ bases last season). It won't amount to a ton of runs, but it might be enough to support the National League's top run prevention unit. The pitching staff doesn't walk anybody (2nd fewest issued in the NL), the defense converts balls in play into outs (fewest hits allowed, below average strikeout rate), and they don't give up the long ball (once again, 2nd fewest allowed in the NL). Part of that is from the park, but most of that is simply from the design of the team. You know the Twins will always struggle to score, and that they'll always prevent runs. The problem here is that they've had stretches where their offense wasn't just bad, but awful (not 2010 Mariners awful, but awful enough), to the point where no level of pitching could salvage them. This squad is better than that, but I'm not altogether convinced that they won't regress a bit.

Prediction: 85-77, Division Champions

Iowa City Comics (NL) gusta487 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 82-80, tied for 2nd place
EXP W%: .483 (78-84)
Notable acquisitions: P Alex Rojas, P Grant Westbrook, 1B Charles Shibata
Notable departures: CF Branch Laker, SS Leonardo Nen, P Happy Magadan, C Damion Chen, P Davey Jacquez

Last season, the Comics made a 13 game jump over S16 to post their first winning season in 10 (Gleeman World) years. Despite this, they still look to be somewhat of a long shot in contending this season, even within a weak division. Much of that stems from the curious decision to trade away CF Branch Laker, the team's best position player, in return for a couple of relievers. Granted, the pen looks to be much improved as a result, and Laker didn't hit all that well last season. However, Eduardo Oliva's glovework in CF is much worse than Laker's, and the move might force someone like Ken Petrov into action; while a fine bench player, he's stretched as an everyday option. The acquisition of Shibata is a bit strange as well. While a fine hitter, Shibata is exactly what Iowa City doesn't need: a left-handed hitter defensively limited to 1B (Jamie Zheng, Nash McCartin). The rotation is top-heavy; Fausto Rosado is a stud, and The Other Rosado (as he'll forever be known as) was outstanding last year; although scouts are still waiting for the other shoe to drop, it's hard to deny his performance so far. Alan Womack and Walt Aldred, however, have both proven to be filler, and Hideki Sakamoto is coming off of an awful rookie season. One would think Sakamoto is a prime bounce-back candidate; on the other hand, The Other Rosado looks primed for a date with Ms. Regression. As it stands, the team should be competitive. Just not competitive enough.

*By the way, how are Sean Watkins and Vern Ryal still in HiA?

Prediction: 78-84, 4th place

St. Louis Greys (NL) broadwayevns View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 82-80, tied for 2nd place
EXP W%: .529 (86-76)
Notable acquisitions: 1B Chipper Velandia
Notable departures: 2B Solly Alexander, P Del Martin

The inevitable changing of the guard in St. Louis is right around the corner; faces of the franchise John Carroll and Bronson Ritz are clearly closing in on the twilight of their careers, nearly ready to be replaced by the kiddie corps. There's not much to say about this team as opposed to last season's team; the same familiar faces are still there, though it's not clear how much Carroll or Ritz have left at this point. The problem here is that for the first time in franchise history, the Greys don't have any star power to augment their modestly talented roster. The end result is a vanilla squad that should hold their own, but don't have much hope for anything more than that. Maybe young 1B Tuck Mathis rebounds from a disappointing rookie campaign. Maybe Carroll and Ritz have one last hurrah in them. Maybe a few of their players find God and clean living and decide to have career seasons. It's all the Greys can hope for this season. As noted above, the Greys do have some young talent in the minors (C Warren O'Connor and IF Homer Bird look ready). Should they be called up, they could easily make the division race more interesting. Regardless of who comes out of this division, though, that team will likely be the worst playoff team in the NL.

Prediction: 83-79 (if O'Connor + Bird are promoted), 2nd place

Nashville Havoc (NL) scottlaz View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 79-83, 4th place (as the Monterrey Conquistadores)
EXP W%: .494 (80-82)
Notable acquisitions: 3B Vladimir Pichardo, P Clark Murphy
Notable departures: P Danny Brower, P Rigo Gutierrez, P Max Moehler, 3B Jim Kirk

The surprising resignation of Monterrey's longtime GM evelandz23 coincided with the relocation of the Conquistadores. As a result, the franchise, now in Nashville, has been re-branded as the Havoc, run by scottlaz, the recently-deposed head honcho of the now-Santa Cruz Slugs. The Havoc fit right in with the rest of the division; they're hardly a bad team, but they don't figure to scare anyone, either. Losing Max Moehler doesn't figure to hurt as badly as one might think, as he was largely ineffective last season. Vladimir Pichardo should be an upgrade over recently departed Jim Kirk, too. Furthermore, the franchise is only a season removed from back-to-back 90+ win campaigns, with much of the same core group of players. It's hardly a great team, but it's not outrageous to think that they can compete. Just don't expect too much past that.

Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place

NL East Preview, Season 18

Chicago Jayhawks (NL) thorku View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 101-61, Division Champions, lost to the Milwaukee Twindyans in the NLCS
EXP W%: .595 (projected out to 96-66 over 162 games)
Notable acquisitions: P Jim Gonzalez, P Quilvio Rodriguez, P Sparky Rando, P Wilfredo Trajano, SS Phillip Combs, SS Corey Boehringer
Notable departures: SS Glenallen Simontacchi, P Bartolo Estrada, P Orber Benitez, P Stuart Burnett, P Ted LeCroy (pending, via trade with Washington)

The Jayhawks once again look like the class of the NL East, though they look less formidable than in years past. First, the departure of Glenallen Simontacchi leaves the Jayhawks without a legitimate starting SS. New acquisitions Phillip Combs and Corey Boehringer aren't awful hitters, and incumbent Maximo Bailey can pick it, but each of them profiles better as a backup. Replicating Simontacchi's S17 performance shouldn't be too difficult; his .638 OPS last season was the second worst of his career (the worst, a .630 OPS back in S13, was at least partially a product of playing in Tacoma's pitcher-friendly ballpark), and his defense is easily worse than any of Chicago's current options. On the pitching side, it'll be far tougher to duplicate the performance of Estrada, Benitez, and Burnett; the trio combined for over 430 IP and an ERA ~ 3.60. The Jayhawks decided to fill the holes with quantity; bringing in Rodriguez, Gonzalez (a longtime Jayhawk), Rando, and Trajano ensures that they'll have arms to fill in for the departed. The problem is that they're simply not as good. Complicating matters is the squad's heavy reliance on ace Marty Melhuse, who's immensely talented but always one pitch away from ending up on the surgeon's table. There's not much help left in the farm system, either, so an injury to any of their ML pitchers will be a challenge to replace. The 'Hawks still have the most talented team in the division, but there's a lot that can go wrong.

Prediction: 94-68, NL East Champions

New York Yankees (NL) goosegoslin View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 87-75, Wildcard, lost to the Milwaukee Twindyans in the NLDS
EXP W%: .561 (91-71)
Notable acquisitions: 1B Walt Lambert (OK, he was technically a Yankee last year, but only for 22 games)
Notable departures: P Birdie Cornelius, CF Felipe Cordero

While they've made the playoffs in three straight seasons, one could label the Yankees' revival as a bit of a disappointment, finishing their past three seasons with 87, 86, and 87 wins. The Yankees have traditionally built their teams around strong pitching (Haywood Towers, Brian Murata, Andres Silva, Jay Cosby, etc). However, faced with the dilemma of only being able to re-sign one of their two departing stars, GM goosegoslin elected to spurn Cornelius, instead offering Lambert a generous 5 year, $110MM contract. Even with his inclusion, it's still a stretch to call this a great lineup; Lambert is a very good hitter, but no one would mistake him for an elite talent. Still, they should score their share of runs. Unfortunately, they might end up giving back most, if not all of their gains in run prevention. The Yankees have a plethora of middling 5th starter options* sitting in AAA right now, but nothing approximating a replacement for one of the best pitchers in the league. Adding Lambert makes the offense better, but losing Cornelius makes the offseason a wash at best for the S18 fortunes of the Yankees. Expect them to tread water.

*As an aside, does any team churn out as many of these guys as the Yankees? Dewayne Christians, Juan Leon, Rico Garces, Slash Ardoin, Hod Kroon...

EDIT: I forgot that P David Calderon was injured for all of S17. Having Adams at SS will help, too, although I don't really think he's all that great. I'll boost the team from 86 wins to 90.

Prediction: 90-72, 2nd place (WC possible? I haven't assessed the NL West; I think at least one WC will come from there)

Scranton Nard Doggs (NL) schnoogens View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 79-83, 3rd place
EXP W%: .500 (81-81)
Notable acquisitions: P Norm Ellenwood
Notable departures: LF Marino Reyes, 3B/OF Victor Thomas, P Roosevelt Anderson, SS Santiago Chantres

After spending most of last season in contention, the Nard Doggs faded badly down the stretch, finishing below .500 and notching a 4th consecutive season of mediocrity. Scranton could be looking at a 5th; the Nard Doggs did little to improve the team this season, choosing instead to shed some payroll and play for the future. GM schnoogens aggressively shopped the expensive Marino Reyes, dumping $15MM of his $20MM on the Oklahoma City Twins. He then let Thomas, Anderson, and Chantres walk, filling in holes through internal promotions and the lone signing of starter Norm Ellenwood. He'll join a solid but thoroughly unexciting rotation, headed by appropriately named workhorse Mule Hardy. Star reliever Sammy Gonzalez is outstanding, but the rest of the pen is shaky. Calvin Faulk and Jake Henry are excellent players, and Jacob Sauer can hit righties, but they don't have much of a supporting cast surrounding them; additionally, aside from the two aforementioned stars, none of the starters penciled to play on Opening Day are good defensively, either. No, Scranton shouldn't be awful, but the Nard Doggs have clearly taken a step backwards.

Prediction: 71-91, 3rd place

Washington D.C. Bureaucrats (NL) themoff02 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 67-95, 4th place
EXP W%: .397 (64-98)
Notable acquisitions: P Toby LeCroy (pending, via trade with Chicago), P Del Martin, C Willie Hogan
Notable departures: P Gerard Tomlinson, P Howard Murphy, LF Jim Brown

Once the premier franchise of the National League, the Bureaucrats blew it all up last season. It was just as ugly as expected. Year 2 of the rebuild likely won't be any better. Most notable was the departure of veteran pitcher Gerard Tomlinson. Prodigal son Toby LeCroy and free agent Del Martin will help, but probably not enough, and the offense is miserable. Face of the franchise Al Iglesias is going to be a lonely, lonely man.

The big question isn't whether this team will contend, but whether they'll avoid stinking enough to prevent ownership from blowing it all up and firing the mastermind behind the 4-time champions, themoff02. It's certainly something worth following.

Prediction: 60-102, 4th place

NL North Preview, Season 18

Milwaukee Twindyans (NL) coolio4433 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 96-66, lost to the Minnesota Fatboys in the World Series.
EXP W%: .618 (projected out to 100-62 over 162 games)
Notable acquisitions: none
Notable departures: none

The Twindyans culminated their most successful regular season since S8 with a somewhat surprising playoff run that ended in a World Series loss to the 3-time champion Fatboys. Whether it stemmed from complacency, a desire to keep the same faces around, or an unwillingness to spend in the free agent market, management elected to return every member on the 25 man roster. Given that the team's 96 wins last season were actually 4 wins below its expected winning percentage, there's little doubt that the Twindyans will contend again. There are some warning signs; 7 of the returnees are 34 or older, and scouts suggest sluggers Kareem Duckworth and Jin-Chi Choi may not age particularly gracefully. There isn't much help coming through the minor league pipeline, either. However, these issues are hardly relevant for the upcoming season. This is a playoff team.

Prediction: 98-64, NL North Champions

Columbus Santa Marias (NL) mrincubus View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 71-91, 2nd place
Exp W%: .436 (71-91)
Notable acquisitions: none
Notable departures: OF Joaquin Cordero, 3B Del Tavarez, P Sam Roberts, P Gary Hermanson, P Carlos Santiago, P Chili Coles

The Santa Marias, after another dismal season, have decided to blow it all up and start from scratch. Gone are several core veteran players, replaced by a smattering of modestly talented (and even that's a stretch) kids tasked with the job of keeping the franchise from plummeting to new lows. LF Willie Espinoza might be the only above average position player in a punchless lineup (.688 OPS in S17), and GM mrincubus may end up moving him at some point during the season. The pitching, supposedly the team's strength, took a significant hit; innings-eater Chili Coles opted for free agency, and the team's best pitcher, Sam Roberts, was flipped to Minnesota. With no talent coming in to replace any of the holes, this could get ugly quickly.

Prediction: 64-98, 3rd place

Cleveland Redbirds (NL) bkukowski View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 67-95, 3rd place
EXP W%: .425 (69-93)
Notable acquisitions: CF Branch Laker, 3B Del Tavarez, SS Leonardo Nen, P Birdie Cornelius, P Max Moehler, P Gerard Tomlinson
Notable departures: P Alex Rojas, P Grant Westbrook, P Dennis Cohen, P Ted Roskos, 3B Sting Berger, P Aaron McGowan

The Redbirds turned out to be the surprise team of the offseason, trading for 2-time All-Star CF Branch Laker and defensive whiz 3B Del Tavarez, then committing a combined $161.5MM on three starting pitchers through free agency. Sluggers Brent O'Donnell and Tony Guerrero return, along with the rest of the supporting cast, to form an offense that should be at least adequate. The pitching goes from terrible (4.70 ERA, 2nd worst in the NL) to a point of strength. Cornelius is a legitimate ace, Moehler will give the Redbirds quality innings, if not quantity, and Tomlinson is more than an innings-eater. And while the bullpen could be a problem, it's hardly a disaster, and they do have prospects waiting in the wings at AAA to take over, should somebody falter. It's not a team built to last, but look for them to challenge for a wildcard slot this season.

Prediction: 91-71, WC

Hartford Dark Blues (NL) tjefferson View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 17 Record: 60-102, 4th place
EXP W%: .349 (57-105)
Notable acquisitions: 1B Matt Governale
Notable departures: CF Shane Raben, P Kenneth Thomas, P Paul Wilson, P Jay Piazza, SS Brian Hendricksen, P Javy Gomez, P Jesus Santos

The Dark Blues were, by any measure, the worst team in the National League in S17. Understandably, GM tjefferson jettisoned many of the players that received the most playing time, including disasters Javy Gomez (146 1/3 IP, 6.83 ERA) and Jay Piazza (86 2/3 IP, 6.65 ERA). Unfortunately, the replacements don't figure to be a whole lot better. Pretend you know nothing about the team. If someone told you that the 25 man roster on Opening Day would consist of 4 waiver-wire castoffs, and 5(!) Rule 5 draft picks, how good would you think that team was?

Exactly.

Additionally, not every player leaving Hartford was terrible. The Dark Blues lost their best position player in Shane Raben and a quality reliever in Thomas. The lineup isn't a complete disaster; Esteban Lecuona was terrific last season, and both Enrique Melendez and Ronnie Malloy can hit as well. However, the National League's worst pitching staff doesn't really look any better this season, the lineup still has far too many holes, and there's absolutely no depth anywhere, should anyone get hurt. There's no reason to think that this team will improve on last season's record, and that's saying a lot.

Prediction: 53-109, 4th place