St. Louis Greys (97-65, NL South champions)
After the most exciting offseason in Greys history, St. Louis was back to its typical, inactive ways this offseason. The biggest loss was RP Lawrence Edwards and the Greys didn't add anybody of consequence.
Matt Governale returns as the key to the offense after an excellent first season in the NL, but he'll need help if St. Louis is going to improve on last season's 10th-place showing in runs scored.
Bronson Ritz is a good hitter, although he was probably over his head last season, and Vladimir Pichardo and Slim Gutierrez are both solid, but the rest of the lineup is pretty mediocre.
Fortunately for St. Louis, it returns most of the pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs in the NL last season. The key, obviously, is five-time Cy Young winner (including the last four) John Carroll.
He's joined in the rotation by solid, if unspectacular, starters Howie Dalesandro, Willis Smith and Roy Gold, with David Alvarado as a weak fifth starter.
The bullpen is led by the fine trio of Nate Pedersen, Don Parkers and Edgardo Uribe.
Prediction: 94-68, NL South champions
Oklahoma City Twins (81-81)
The Twins overachieved in Season 11, and GM garlogic realizes that his team isn't ready to contend despite what seems like steady improvement from Season 9 to Season 11. As a result, he got rid of several players in the offseason, most notably 19-game winner Lance Lara and solid innings-eater D'Angelo Pascual.
Oklahoma City finished last in the NL with 640 runs scored and it looks like offense will be a problem again. Kirk Titan is the best returning player who received at least 300 at-bats and he'll get an expanded role. Kevin North will also get a full-time role after a brutal cup of coffee in the majors last season.
Lariel Lee and Ray Lyons are the only other returning position players who posted an OPS above .620 last season.
Adrian Henderson, Vic Lopez and Bobby Metzger are the three returning starters and they'll be joined by rookie Ben Weston and an unknown fifth starter. The bullpen is led by Moe Farley, Jesus Santos and Henry Gilmore.
Prediction: 65-97
Monterrey Conquistadores (75-87)
After two nice seasons in Atlanta, the franchise moved to Monterrey and has had trouble getting anything going, topping out at 85 wins in Season 10. After a step back in Season 11, the Conquistadores hope to start making progress toward a return to the playoffs.
Monterrey jettisoned four players this offseason who had significant roles with the team last season, none of them particularly good: SP Carl Gray, SP Bum Marte, 3B Pedro Pulido and LF Victor Bieser, plus a couple relievers who also struggled.
Monterrey didn't bring in a whole lot of new talent in the offseason, signing Houston Linden to replace Pulido at third and Richard Delaney to replace one of the departed relievers. Neither of them is great, but they should at least be able to do what the players they're replacing did.
The biggest upgrades to the team this season are expected to come from the promotion of a couple prospects after 20 games.
Taylor Turner will replace Bieser in left field and should be a massive improvement. Combined with Francisco Nunez (about half the time), Ted Simpson and Dennis Nelson (who should bounce back from a down season), Taylor will give Monterrey an imposing heart of the order.
The other call-up will be Ismael Colome, who should be an improvement over Gray and will join Max Moehler to provide a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation.
Unfortunately, the back of the rotation isn't very good with Loaiza and Otis Upshaw and the bullpen is mediocre at best.
Prediction: 83-79
Iowa City Comics (63-99)
Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Comics lost two players who had full-time roles in Season 11: 2B Alejandro Javier and SP Joe Sanders. Neither is a star, but both are solid players and will be missed by a team just looking to win at least 62 games.
The Comics brought in 3B Darron Jenkins and SP William Cheng, and while both are a bit past their prime, they should be able to contribute.
Future Hall of Famer Chipper Velandia remains as a reminder of how good the franchise used to be, but there's just not very much talent around him.
It's going to be a tense season in Iowa City as the win rule looms large. Fortunately, the Comics underperformed a bit last season. The team had the run differential of a 70-win team, so even if the talent level is lower this season, there should be something of a buffer.
Prediction: 65-97
Friday, August 21, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
NL East Season 12 Preview
This has to be the most boring preview ever.
Bureaucrats, Jayhawks, Yankees, Frymaster.
Done.
There's at least a 95% chance it winds up that way, which is ordinarily remarkable I suppose, but there are just too many gaps between each team over 162 games for anything else to happen.
But fine, a preview is a preview:
Washington, World Series back to back champions
Want the bad news right away? Ok: Dave Worrell. The Bureaucrats farm system pipeline is not yet done producing talent, as Season 8's first round draft pick figures to hit the big league roster 20 games into the season. A trade for Larry Piatt is probably the next most significant improvement if I'd have to guess. So it's not all terrible for the rest of the league.
On the positive side (for the rest of the league of course), due to some unconscious contracts handed out to SS's during a particularly aggressive run on FA SS's (Oscar Sugawara, welcome to 26mm/4 years. 32 year old Cesar Piedra? Welcome to over 9mm a year for 3 years. Scot F'ing Busby, your 8.2 mm contract is right over here), Washington wound up having to spend it's extra payroll locking up Dale Smart and his 83 glove. The same could be said for Derek Boone, I'm certainly glad that money is being spent on these two rather than on a $20 million prospect budget. Small victories....
Prediction: 108 wins, Division Champs, no 3-peat
Chicago Jayhawks
Last year saw the arrival of Ace prospect Juan Arroyo, Ace Closer Jimmie Estrella and the poor man's Mark Texeira: Mike Jarvis. This season Chitown has far less to look forward to from the farm, perhaps Fernando Cruz, but not much more behind him I'm guessing.
So in turn, GM thorku did what GM thorku's do: Wheel & Deal. First stop? Back up the Brinks truck and make a substantial deposit in the Artistic Capital of the World: Florence, Italy. Bongiorno Billy Ray Perry! Throw in a solid innings eater in Phil Sanders, very solid 2B Daryl Morgan & the very rotting and decaying smelly corpse of Bryan Beckett and you have an improved squad without a doubt. Just not enough to win the division unfortunately.
Prediction: 2nd spot in the NL East, 5th seed overall. NL Pennant a real possibility.
NY Yankees
On the heels of it's franchises two worst seasons ever, GM goosegoslin is getting excited once more about big league baseball in NY. Presumably this means a move above the .500 line, and further distance between the team that drafted 2nd overall last year; the Yankees are on the slow road back to respectability.
Unfortunately, and this will surprise precisely no one, I'm actually having trouble figuring out who the members of the "Fab Five" are exactly (GM goose made reference to a quintet getting called up at game 20). Future SS Luis Alvarez is presumably not on the list (he has yet to have a single AAA AB), and David "The Beast" Calderon has already been told he'll be at AAA as well.
Jared Kraemer is certainly on the list, although his .929 MiL career OPS, while solid, won't make many All-Star games. LF Pablo Merced, now in his 7th year as a professional is presumably a lock due to sheer age, but 36 power for a CO leaves it's doubts that he's worthy of being called an improvement. I'm guessing Al Sierra is on the list, but 52 PC catchers who's hitting ratings top out at 76/77 are somewhat dime a dozen in WIS. I'm guessing RP Junior Navarro makes the list with his 76 control and 73/63 splits? Perhaps Happy Magadan and his 69/59 splits?
I'm not sure, and in the end don't see too much happening here - .500 seems like a high end projection to me, but I'll go with it out of respect for the gooser's knack for getting the most out of the least.
Prediction: 3rd place in the NL East, 81-81 record.
Frymaster (Still refuse to acknowledge San Juan/Tampa. I say fry should move once more just for fun)
Well, the man is still here, give him that much credit at very least. After winning 124, 128 and 130 games over 2 running seasons for the past 4 years, the Frymaster has pretty much pushed the limits of suck. If there was a Greg Maddux "painting the corners" award for GM's, fry would sweep in destructive fashion.
This year's pile of suck? May I interest you in Ben Everett at 2x $2.5 million? If I said I had Cristian Daly at 2x $1.75 million, would that be something you might be interested in? Francis Green for 2@2.665 mill? Darryl Walker, $2.87mm for 2 years? Veritable ACE Javy James went for a relatively good value by comparison: 8 million total, spread out over 2 years. Even lightning rod of controversy Calvin Chen scored himself a sweet $3.4mm in guaranteed money over the next 2 years.
And with that, my head hurts.
Prediction: Let's not jinx it...
Bureaucrats, Jayhawks, Yankees, Frymaster.
Done.
There's at least a 95% chance it winds up that way, which is ordinarily remarkable I suppose, but there are just too many gaps between each team over 162 games for anything else to happen.
But fine, a preview is a preview:
Washington, World Series back to back champions
Want the bad news right away? Ok: Dave Worrell. The Bureaucrats farm system pipeline is not yet done producing talent, as Season 8's first round draft pick figures to hit the big league roster 20 games into the season. A trade for Larry Piatt is probably the next most significant improvement if I'd have to guess. So it's not all terrible for the rest of the league.
On the positive side (for the rest of the league of course), due to some unconscious contracts handed out to SS's during a particularly aggressive run on FA SS's (Oscar Sugawara, welcome to 26mm/4 years. 32 year old Cesar Piedra? Welcome to over 9mm a year for 3 years. Scot F'ing Busby, your 8.2 mm contract is right over here), Washington wound up having to spend it's extra payroll locking up Dale Smart and his 83 glove. The same could be said for Derek Boone, I'm certainly glad that money is being spent on these two rather than on a $20 million prospect budget. Small victories....
Prediction: 108 wins, Division Champs, no 3-peat
Chicago Jayhawks
Last year saw the arrival of Ace prospect Juan Arroyo, Ace Closer Jimmie Estrella and the poor man's Mark Texeira: Mike Jarvis. This season Chitown has far less to look forward to from the farm, perhaps Fernando Cruz, but not much more behind him I'm guessing.
So in turn, GM thorku did what GM thorku's do: Wheel & Deal. First stop? Back up the Brinks truck and make a substantial deposit in the Artistic Capital of the World: Florence, Italy. Bongiorno Billy Ray Perry! Throw in a solid innings eater in Phil Sanders, very solid 2B Daryl Morgan & the very rotting and decaying smelly corpse of Bryan Beckett and you have an improved squad without a doubt. Just not enough to win the division unfortunately.
Prediction: 2nd spot in the NL East, 5th seed overall. NL Pennant a real possibility.
NY Yankees
On the heels of it's franchises two worst seasons ever, GM goosegoslin is getting excited once more about big league baseball in NY. Presumably this means a move above the .500 line, and further distance between the team that drafted 2nd overall last year; the Yankees are on the slow road back to respectability.
Unfortunately, and this will surprise precisely no one, I'm actually having trouble figuring out who the members of the "Fab Five" are exactly (GM goose made reference to a quintet getting called up at game 20). Future SS Luis Alvarez is presumably not on the list (he has yet to have a single AAA AB), and David "The Beast" Calderon has already been told he'll be at AAA as well.
Jared Kraemer is certainly on the list, although his .929 MiL career OPS, while solid, won't make many All-Star games. LF Pablo Merced, now in his 7th year as a professional is presumably a lock due to sheer age, but 36 power for a CO leaves it's doubts that he's worthy of being called an improvement. I'm guessing Al Sierra is on the list, but 52 PC catchers who's hitting ratings top out at 76/77 are somewhat dime a dozen in WIS. I'm guessing RP Junior Navarro makes the list with his 76 control and 73/63 splits? Perhaps Happy Magadan and his 69/59 splits?
I'm not sure, and in the end don't see too much happening here - .500 seems like a high end projection to me, but I'll go with it out of respect for the gooser's knack for getting the most out of the least.
Prediction: 3rd place in the NL East, 81-81 record.
Frymaster (Still refuse to acknowledge San Juan/Tampa. I say fry should move once more just for fun)
Well, the man is still here, give him that much credit at very least. After winning 124, 128 and 130 games over 2 running seasons for the past 4 years, the Frymaster has pretty much pushed the limits of suck. If there was a Greg Maddux "painting the corners" award for GM's, fry would sweep in destructive fashion.
This year's pile of suck? May I interest you in Ben Everett at 2x $2.5 million? If I said I had Cristian Daly at 2x $1.75 million, would that be something you might be interested in? Francis Green for 2@2.665 mill? Darryl Walker, $2.87mm for 2 years? Veritable ACE Javy James went for a relatively good value by comparison: 8 million total, spread out over 2 years. Even lightning rod of controversy Calvin Chen scored himself a sweet $3.4mm in guaranteed money over the next 2 years.
And with that, my head hurts.
Prediction: Let's not jinx it...
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Season 12 win requirements
Here are the win totals needed in Season 12 for the franchises that didn't win at least 75 games in Season 11.
Pittsburgh - 55
Boston - 59
Florida - 59
San Antonio - 62
Cheyenne - 56
Milwaukee - 61
San Juan - 60
Iowa City - 62
Boise - 51
Pittsburgh - 55
Boston - 59
Florida - 59
San Antonio - 62
Cheyenne - 56
Milwaukee - 61
San Juan - 60
Iowa City - 62
Boise - 51
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