Lessons Learned in Player Value

With the new rule in place that considers any owner with more than 2 seasons of experience a "vet" with no veto protection from other owners, the best thing to do for newer owners is to help educate them. I recommend following these unofficial rules for the first 1-5 seasons:

1. Don't make any trades in seasons 1-2
a) only exception is if there is at least one experienced, unbiased owner that reviews it for you beforehand

2. Don't sign a FA to a contract >$5M/year for more than 3 years without asking an experienced, unbiased owner about it first

3. Don't release any player unless you have maxed out roster throughout your minor leagues. If you're at that point, release a guy with at 3+ years of experience with the lowest OVR rating (which is only useful until you get a handle on the true meaningful ratings)

4. If your fielding instructor is not willing to return, prepare to spend $3-$5M on a FI and try to get at least a 70 glove rating. FI's can be very expensive and they are crucial to defensive development.

Mistakes I've made:
First of all, in none of these cases did a more experienced owner blatantly rip me off. This is not intended to demonstrate owners acting against the league's best interests - none of these trades was "vetoable" nor should they have been. But in every case I made a decision that was based upon my non-complete knowledge of player values and the value of money...and all of these decisions were made when I had 6 or less seasons of experience with HBD. I guess I'm a slow learner?

Trade #1 (S3, my first full season of control):
I trade Hal Owen, a player with a 28 overall rating, for Russ Perkins, s SP making $8M in his last contract year. Perkins is immediately my best pitcher (my team was awful) and I was desperate for some SP. And a 28 overall player is awful, right???

Analysis: Perkins ended up pitching for me for just one season, going 14-13 in 211.2 IP with a 1.43 WHIP and 4.97 ERA. This isn't awful, but it's certainly not worth $8M. What I should have realized is that he was essentially a salary dump by the other team - they didn't want to get stuck paying $8M for him even just for one more season, so I should have asked for a minimum of $4M of salary coverage if I was going to take him on my team (and even if I was giving up nothing in return). In the other team's defense, he was coming off of a 1.28 WHIP/3.24 ERA season...so he appeared to be a much better pitcher than what his ratings would suggest.

So Perkins +$4M for a random minor leaguer would have been ok. But I didn't give up a random minor leaguer...I gave up an awesome pinch hitter for an NL team. Owen's overall rating is artificially low because his durability was 11. But his batting ratings were decent and he was still improving...and an 83 batting eye can be hard to find. In his ML career (all since the trade) he has hit .291/.384/.422 in 1411 AB's...and what tops it all off is that a player with this low of an overall rating is always willing to play for the bare minimum salary. In that sense, he's an even more valuable commodity than his good stats would suggest alone.

Conclusion: I traded for a pitcher who I paid $8M to throw 212 replacement-level innings in return for a career .806 OPS player who has made $3M total in 9 major league seasons.

Other comments:
This post already is longer than I anticipated and I need to install a car seat and put together a crib this afternoon, so I think I'll leave this trade as the lone example. But here a few "Cliff's Notes" regarding other uninformed mistakes I've made:

1. #1 starters are the most valuable commodity, followed closely (or some would say equal to) by CF and SS with a solid glove who can hit for a .850+ OPS. If you're trading a future #1 starter for a SS who you think fits the bill, make sure the SS is at least 82+ in all defensive categories and that his batting splits are at least >65 (these are generic, personal guidelines). I made this mistake with the Mesa-Millwood trade in season 7 (Edgar Mesa and Neil Millwood).

2. Like mentioned above, solid defensive players who can hit are valuable. I pulled the trigger on Haywood Enders way too early and didn't get a decent return (Roberto Cortez). Cortez is available for trade, by the way! He'd be a great #5 starter or long reliever for a non-contending team. But even when I traded for him he was clearly projecting to be no better than a #4 starter and I gave up a guy who could be plugged in at 2B or 3B for a long career and be counted on to produce decent stats (especially at 2B). Some guys have bad seasons...it was unfortunate that Enders' career with me started that way.

Again, this post is not intended to "call out" the owners on the other sides of the trades...it's to illustrate the small errors in judgment that can result in the degradation of one's overall franchise value. I'll quote Ernest Hemingway from The Sun Also Rises: when asked how he went bankrupt, a man replies "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." The same could be said for your beloved HBD franchise.

Caveat Emptor.

GW2 prediction

Here's my prediction for the players involved in the trade that sickchangeup hates.

In Season 12, Ismael Coronado will post at least a .685 OPS and will have more plus plays on defense than minus plays.

At least once by the end of Season 16, Sammy Matos and Everth Quintero will have combined for at least 90 innings pitched and an ERA under 4.00.