St. Louis Greys (100-62, NL South champion)
The Greys once again had a very quiet offseason. After not changing a single player between the end of Season 8 and the beginning of Season 9, only a few changes were made this offseason. St. Louis lost a couple solid pitchers (Pedro Montero and Brandon Garland), a crappy pitcher (Alan Lewis) and a crappy backup infielder (Pedro Pulido). The Greys added reliever Trent Miller, who should be able to replace Garland's innings.
Replacing Montero will be tougher, as St. Louis doesn't currently have a fifth starter on the roster. It seems likely that the Greys, who only have 24 players in the majors at the moment, will call up David Alvarado to be the fifth starter after the first 20 or so games. He would join John Carroll, Howie Dalesandro, Roy Gold and Willis Smith in one of the best rotations in the league.
The strength of the rotation is what allowed the Greys to lead the NL with only 605 runs allowed last season. They should be excellent in that category yet again, although even the great Carroll likely can't match his amazing Season 9 performance (his ERA was a full run below his previous best).
The offense is solid, with several good players but no stars. The legendary Fritz Rushford is on his last legs and Vladimir Pichardo has regressed since his excellent sophomore season and is now hurt.
The strength of this St. Louis squad compared to previous seasons will be almost entirely at the whims of which players have career seasons and which ones disappoint.
Prediction: 98 wins, NL South champion
Iowa City Comics (79-83)
The Comics lost two starting position players and replaced them both with in-house options. Luis Cruz replaces Ernest Bynum at third base and should hit for more power but get on base less often. Nicholas Helms takes over for Norm Hayes in center field. He should improve the defense but will likely be a downgrade offensively.
The Iowa City offense still revolves totally and completely around Chipper Velandia. He's pretty much the only reason the team's offense was above average last season (after accounting for the home park).
The starting rotation is unchanged from last season, which means two pitchers who posted ERAs above 5.90 in an NL pitcher's park (Eddie Wall and Felipe Olivo) are back for another shot. The rotation doesn't have a true ace, although Sandy Price and Henry Beckwith are decent.
This once again looks like a team with a mediocre offense and a below-average pitching staff.
Prediction: 75 wins
Monterrey Conquistadores (76-86)
The Conquistadores had the busiest offseason in the division and showed they're serious about trying to bring a playoff team to Mexico. The team's offseason was obviously dominated by the acquisition of former Twindyan stars Dennis Nelson, Pete Skinner and Ted Simpson. All three of them provide a clear upgrade at their position, which means the starting lineup should be much stronger even with the downgrade from Larry Womack to Pedro Pulido at third base.
The rotation also got an overhaul, as only Lefty Loaiza and Orber Romero return. Junior MacRae is making the transition from reliever to starter, Max Moehler is up for good after getting his feet wet last season and Carl Gray is trying to jumpstart his career with a move to the NL.
Prediction: 85 wins, just missing playoffs
Oklahoma City Twins (67-95)
The good news for the Twins is they only need to win 58 games to stay in the league. The bad news is they had the run differential of a 61-win team last season, so any decline in the actual talent level of the team could put them right on the bubble.
The most significant loss from last season's team is Glen Palmer, and it's generally a good sign when somebody like Palmer is a team's biggest loss. In the rotation, D'Angelo Pascual will probably decline a bit from his Season 9 performance, but Rico Silva should offset that by improving upon what Brandon Page gave the team.
The offense should be better for three reasons. First, Stu Butler almost has to improve upon his Season 9 effort at least a little bit. Second, Travis O'Connor will get a full season at shortstop and he's better than the dreck that manned the position last season. Third, Ray Lyons will get a full season in center field and he should be better than the departed Peter Jackson.
Prediction: 64 wins
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Thursday, February 19, 2009
AL East Preview: Season 10
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Season 9: 110-52, AL East Champs, World Series Champs
Notable acquisitions: Timothy Rivers, Bud Jones, Phil Jefferies, Miguel Bennett
Notable departures: Bryan Beckett, Jacob Stewart, Billy Stovall, Tomas Alvarado
The Masato/Beckett trade finally paid off for the Red Sox, as Season 9 culminated in a World Series title for the Boston faithful. GM benj13blue wasted no time this offseason, swapping out some expensive departing free agents for some cheaper alternatives, and trading away an aging star. The dropoff from Beckett to incoming youngster Miguel Bennett is substantial, but Bennett's a solid player in his own right, and should provide the Sox with several years of cheap, effective centerfield play. Losing both Stewart and Stovall hurts, but both were asking for more than the Sox could afford; nabbing Jefferies on the cheap should dull the blow. Aging great Billy Ray Prince doesn't seem to have the stamina to start anymore, and may require a move to the 'pen; to counter this, the Sox curiously signed a player even older than Prince in Timothy Rivers. It remains to be seen how much Rivers has left in the tank; past the triumvirate of Masato/Ellis/Jefferson, the rotation looks shaky at best. Still, the Sox return much of an offense that scored a jaw-dropping 1119 runs last season, and remain heavy favorites to repeat as division champs.
Prediction: 103-59, AL East champs
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Season 9: 88-74, Wildcard, lost to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the Division Play-In Series
Notable acquisitions: Pablo Garces, Oscar Sugawara
Notable departures: Ozzie Zhang, Carl Gray, Darrell White
The Phenomenauts look to build upon last year's success (their first-ever playoff appearance). The team remains largely unchanged from last season, as most of their moves appear to be more cosmetic than anything else. Swapping Sugawara for White sacrifices some offense for defense at SS, while Garces would eat some of the innings left behind by Zhang. Getting rid of Grey's horrendous Season 6 ERA is a plus. The biggest factor, however, is having the kiddie corps together for a full season; last year's decision to leave many of their brightest stars in AAA for the first 20 games almost backfired, as they didn't clinch a playoff spot until the last game of the season. This year's team should be better equipped to ward off Syracuse and Co. for the 2nd WC in the AL.
Prediction: 91-71, Wildcard
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Season 9: 72-90, 3rd place
Notable acquisitions: Louis Lyon, Ramon Martin, Jacob Stewart, Billy Stovall, Izzy Richard, Tommy Liverman, Benny Molina, Benito Ramirez
Notable departures: Cody Woods, Victor Lawrence, Taylor Smith, Jordan Holmes, Aaron Ford, Angel Montero, Pasqual Vazquez
The most successful franchise in Gleeman World history chose to tear it all down last season; consequently, Metropolitan fans suffered through the worst season in franchise history. However, GM sickchangeup turned heads this offseason by signing virtually every marquee free agent off the market. The Mets chose to discard innings eaters such as Lawrence, Montero, and Co., management instead acquired four of the best relievers available (Lyon, Stewart, Stovall, Richard), along with ageless wonder Benny Molina and solid vet Tommy Liverman. They also welcomed back two familar faces in Ramon Martin and Benitoo Ramirez. The new-look Mets should be competitive, and far superior to last year's edition. However, nobody's going to mistake this squad for the elite teams they fielded just a few seasons ago. It wouldn't surprise me if this team made the playoffs, especially if they decide to make an extra move or two to bolster the lineup. As they are, I see them falling a bit short.
Prediction: 85-77, 3rd place
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Season 9: 67-95, 4th place
Notable acquisitions: Paul Kirby, Ted Roskos, Victor Padilla
Notable departures: Philip Blake, Rico Silva, Louis Lyon, Claude Kydd
The Pug Dogs find themselves stuck in a division that's become increasingly more competitive, and have clearly fallen behind the curve. The rotation looks highly problematic; Otis Upshaw and Rex Byrd are fine options in the middle of the rotation, but they're uninspiring (to say the least) as the #1 and #2 starters. The other 3 slots are currently occupied by a 40 year-old declining has-been (Mo Greer), a 29 year-old never-was with 7 years in AAA and just 110 major league innings (Sammy Walker), and a familiar mediocrity (Alberto Melendez and his 5.29 career ERA). There are other options, but none of them are particularly appealing, either. Bringing in Kirby should help the offense, but not enough to make much of a difference. The Pug Dogs probably aren't bad enough to get the boot from the league, but it's entirely possible that they end up toeing that line.
Prediction:63-99, 4th place
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
NL West preview: Season 10
Anaheim Anteaters (112-50, NL West champion)
Half the rotation from Anaheim's Season 8 championship is gone. World Series MVP Louie Bonilla signed with division rival Boise as a free agent last offseason, and the ageless Benny Molina signed a monster deal with the Mets this offseason. The Anteaters brought in two new starting pitchers this offseason: Phil Sanders and Dennis Cohen. They'll compete with Trevor Peterson and J.D. Hardtke to join Kelvin Sullivan and Sal Roosevelt in the rotation. Ultimately, losing Molina and adding Sanders and Cohen should result in a slight downgrade to the rotation.
The bullpen is more problematic. The Anteaters said goodbye this offseason to Pete Hernandez, Grover Rowand, Phil Jefferies and Andres Quevedo, who combined for a 3.34 ERA in 264.1 innings last season. Anaheim signed outstanding reliever Tim Stark, but he won't be able to make up all those innings by himself.
Fortunately, last season's league-leading offense remains largely intact, led by Edwin Hogan, Richard Maxwell, Jin-Chi Choi, Lou Gil and Haywood Gipson. The only change is that outmaking expert Juan Candelaria is gone, to be replaced at third base by some combination of Taylor Smith and Patrick Hartman.
Season 10 prediction: 104 wins, NL West champion
Boise Mashers (89-73, wild card)
Following a second straight wild card appearance and a trip to the NLCS, the Mashers had a fairly quiet offseason. The only losses were pitchers Dennis Cohen and Jose Duran, shortstop Andre Beimel and outfielder D'Angelo Cedeno; none of them were particularly crucial to Boise's success last season.
The Mashers brought in relievers Calvin Brock and Paul Pearson. Brock was terrible last season, but he has talent and has been better in the past. He and Pearson should be at least as good as Cohen and Duran were, although losing Cohen means Boise has no safety net should something happen to the quality quartet of Louie Bonilla, Jae Chang, Christopher Cook and William Cheng.
Brock and Pearson join a nice bullpen trio of Keith Bryant, Victor Romero and Al Carrasco.
Boise also brought in shortstop Bo Brown, who should be at least as good as Beimel in a part-time role.
Once again, the Mashers should have a good pitching staff with an average offense (although the home park will skew the numbers a bit), but there's a bit more risk of collapse this season because of the thin rotation.
Season 10 prediction: 86 wins, no playoffs
Tacoma Down Pour (76-86)
After a busy Season 9, Tacoma has had an equally busy offseason. Gone are shortstop Benito Ramirez, outfielders Ramon Martin and Donald Nakamura and pitchers Darrin Bradley, Placido Coronado and Royce Wallace. Replacing them are outfielder Bernard Rhodes, infielders Darron Kirkland and Clarence Hampton and pitchers Ozzie Zhang and Patrick Doster.
Rhodes and Kirkland should definitely upgrade Tacoma's offense (which will also benefit from a full season of Wilt Knotts), but the defense may be questionable. The Down Pour are planning to use Kirkland at shortstop and rookie Glenallen Simontacchi in center field. They won't be the worst defenders ever at those positions, but they're both well below average.
Tacoma also welcomes back Tomas Granados, who lost almost all of Season 9 to injury. He, Doster and Zhang join Walt Hill and Robert Fikac in a rotation that should be slightly better than last season's.
The other plus for Tacoma is that top-notch prospects Al Guzman, Cliff Hawkins and Paul Lorin are all in Triple-A and ready to help out if needed (although Hawkins could certainly use a full season at that level).
Season 10 prediction: 88 wins, wild card
Salem Sidehill Gougers (54-108)
The Sidehill Gougers lost a handful of players this offseason, but the only one who's actually good is reliever Galahad Christiansen.
Salem went out and signed a trio of solid pitchers in Gabe Thompson, Santiago Blanco and Fernando Estalella and took a flier on Jose Duran, who was much better in Season 8 than in Season 9. Thompson, Blanco and Estalella, at least, should improve last season's third-worst pitching staff.
The only position player Salem brought in is Rule 5 draft pick Ugueth Marrero, who should be at least as good at shortstop as the departed Oscar Sugawara. Triple-A call-ups Nigel Juden and Paul Koh will platoon at catcher and should improve upon Tony Dixon's numbers. And Chris Mason will be a big help to the offense when he gets called up 20 or so games into the season.
Season 10 prediction: 65 wins
Half the rotation from Anaheim's Season 8 championship is gone. World Series MVP Louie Bonilla signed with division rival Boise as a free agent last offseason, and the ageless Benny Molina signed a monster deal with the Mets this offseason. The Anteaters brought in two new starting pitchers this offseason: Phil Sanders and Dennis Cohen. They'll compete with Trevor Peterson and J.D. Hardtke to join Kelvin Sullivan and Sal Roosevelt in the rotation. Ultimately, losing Molina and adding Sanders and Cohen should result in a slight downgrade to the rotation.
The bullpen is more problematic. The Anteaters said goodbye this offseason to Pete Hernandez, Grover Rowand, Phil Jefferies and Andres Quevedo, who combined for a 3.34 ERA in 264.1 innings last season. Anaheim signed outstanding reliever Tim Stark, but he won't be able to make up all those innings by himself.
Fortunately, last season's league-leading offense remains largely intact, led by Edwin Hogan, Richard Maxwell, Jin-Chi Choi, Lou Gil and Haywood Gipson. The only change is that outmaking expert Juan Candelaria is gone, to be replaced at third base by some combination of Taylor Smith and Patrick Hartman.
Season 10 prediction: 104 wins, NL West champion
Boise Mashers (89-73, wild card)
Following a second straight wild card appearance and a trip to the NLCS, the Mashers had a fairly quiet offseason. The only losses were pitchers Dennis Cohen and Jose Duran, shortstop Andre Beimel and outfielder D'Angelo Cedeno; none of them were particularly crucial to Boise's success last season.
The Mashers brought in relievers Calvin Brock and Paul Pearson. Brock was terrible last season, but he has talent and has been better in the past. He and Pearson should be at least as good as Cohen and Duran were, although losing Cohen means Boise has no safety net should something happen to the quality quartet of Louie Bonilla, Jae Chang, Christopher Cook and William Cheng.
Brock and Pearson join a nice bullpen trio of Keith Bryant, Victor Romero and Al Carrasco.
Boise also brought in shortstop Bo Brown, who should be at least as good as Beimel in a part-time role.
Once again, the Mashers should have a good pitching staff with an average offense (although the home park will skew the numbers a bit), but there's a bit more risk of collapse this season because of the thin rotation.
Season 10 prediction: 86 wins, no playoffs
Tacoma Down Pour (76-86)
After a busy Season 9, Tacoma has had an equally busy offseason. Gone are shortstop Benito Ramirez, outfielders Ramon Martin and Donald Nakamura and pitchers Darrin Bradley, Placido Coronado and Royce Wallace. Replacing them are outfielder Bernard Rhodes, infielders Darron Kirkland and Clarence Hampton and pitchers Ozzie Zhang and Patrick Doster.
Rhodes and Kirkland should definitely upgrade Tacoma's offense (which will also benefit from a full season of Wilt Knotts), but the defense may be questionable. The Down Pour are planning to use Kirkland at shortstop and rookie Glenallen Simontacchi in center field. They won't be the worst defenders ever at those positions, but they're both well below average.
Tacoma also welcomes back Tomas Granados, who lost almost all of Season 9 to injury. He, Doster and Zhang join Walt Hill and Robert Fikac in a rotation that should be slightly better than last season's.
The other plus for Tacoma is that top-notch prospects Al Guzman, Cliff Hawkins and Paul Lorin are all in Triple-A and ready to help out if needed (although Hawkins could certainly use a full season at that level).
Season 10 prediction: 88 wins, wild card
Salem Sidehill Gougers (54-108)
The Sidehill Gougers lost a handful of players this offseason, but the only one who's actually good is reliever Galahad Christiansen.
Salem went out and signed a trio of solid pitchers in Gabe Thompson, Santiago Blanco and Fernando Estalella and took a flier on Jose Duran, who was much better in Season 8 than in Season 9. Thompson, Blanco and Estalella, at least, should improve last season's third-worst pitching staff.
The only position player Salem brought in is Rule 5 draft pick Ugueth Marrero, who should be at least as good at shortstop as the departed Oscar Sugawara. Triple-A call-ups Nigel Juden and Paul Koh will platoon at catcher and should improve upon Tony Dixon's numbers. And Chris Mason will be a big help to the offense when he gets called up 20 or so games into the season.
Season 10 prediction: 65 wins
NL East Preview: 2 team race
With the Yankees giving up, and with San Juan fielding what is quite possibly the worst team in the majors, the NL East is up for grabs between 2 teams.
Here are my predictions in reverse order:
San Juan/Tampa Bay/frymaster's team
Prediction: 49 wins, booted from Gleeman World
Will this post be a wakeup call for frymaster, the way these posts usually are for those that get called out in spectacular fashion? Most probably, but in the event that it doesn't - you heard it here first. This team won't be around next year.
Their overall franchise rating is 63, the lowest I've seen in a while. I'm guessing their "ace" is FA signee Julian Martin. I'm also guessing their SP4 is 41 year old, 16 DUR, 53 STA, 48 HEALTH Andres Silva. If there were to be a 5th starter, I'd have to guess that it's 41 year old, 15 DUR, 49 STA, 61 Health Jorel Shaw. It's really all quite hard to tell though.
Power Bat? I'm guessing Cy Kingman and his .899 career MiL OPS. All Stars? This team didn't have any last year, heck it didn't even have a post-season award winner of any kind. And not only does Peter Chang have a ML contract, he's actually making $827,000 this year! Daniel Jefferson should contribute nicely this year, but he's got a 58 health rating, so who knows. In fact, San Juan has the worst overall health rating of any 25 man roster in the bigs, although fortunately with an 18/19 training/medical budget.
Now this is where it get's worse. 50 wins and you get to stay right? Wrong. Fry needs 62 wins or he is history. Good luck!
New York Yankees
Prediction: top 10 draft pick
After a long and successful NL run, the Yankees have folded into what is very likely to be the bottom of the standings as their pundits predicted all along. Their 3 World Series appearances in 4 years is only bested by the 3 consecutive World Series appearances by the Metropolitans, their cross-town rivals. And much like their NY counterparts, the long run of success took it's toll on the Yankee farm system, and left them with little alternative but to start over.
Gone are Yankee legends Haywood Towers, Brian Murata, & Bernard Rhodes. Even home grown 28 year old super star Darron Kirkland got traded. In are journeymen like Victor Lawrence & Pete Hernandez. Not even Grover Rowand, a shell of his former self, can perk up the Yankee faithful during this down year. The Yankees are looking forward to the future, and only next year's much anticipated FA Class can do much to save them from years at the bottom.
Chicago Jayhawks
Prediction: 5th seed, knocked out by Washington
Only a late season collapse at the helm by GM thor"I'm resting my players for October"ku kept this storied franchise from adding another chapter to it's playoff story. Well, that and the awful starting pitching. And perhaps Shawn Robinson, although you hate to throw a good guy like that under the bus. I mean, the .296 OBP wasn't great, but... nevermind.
What's important is that GM thorku was back behind the bus after last year's historic debacle and more determined than ever to make this the year that his franchise returns to the playoffs. Acquired via trade were Diego Nunez, the team's probable new ace. Dale Rooney shores up the back of the rotation, replacing the departed and incredibly effective Rex Byrd. A handful of other trades help prop things up here and there, but the story here is what's coming from the MiL's.
Will future phenom Bartolo Estrada be pitching in Wrigley 20 games in? Jimmie Estrella? Rigo Gutierrez? Cliff Spencer?
The answer to each of these questions will go a long way to determining who wins the NL East, and who get's the 5th seed. There will be very little margin for error.
Washington Bureaucrats
Prediction: Division Champions, No Playoff Bye, 96 wins, NL Pennant.
Last year Washington posted an 88 win season, and this year they are going to be better. How much better? That depends on the following 4 guys:
Chili Easley
Garrett Lorraine
Albert Brooks
Albie Cruz
My guess is that the first two definitely come up after 20 or so games, while the second two stay down until late September. Albie Cruz is ready for the show, but with Tomlinson, Towers, Lorraine (*shudder*) and some combination of Kline/Hayes, it's doubtful that he is going to be needed per se. Brooks could benefit the Big club with his bat, but could use the time at AAA more so than Cruz.
All in all, this 70 million payroll, 20 million prospect budgeted team will be a frightening NL contender for years to come, and I'll be very surprised if they don't win at least 4 of the next 5 NL East Division titles, and probably as many NL Pennants to go with it.
Here are my predictions in reverse order:
San Juan/Tampa Bay/frymaster's team
Prediction: 49 wins, booted from Gleeman World
Will this post be a wakeup call for frymaster, the way these posts usually are for those that get called out in spectacular fashion? Most probably, but in the event that it doesn't - you heard it here first. This team won't be around next year.
Their overall franchise rating is 63, the lowest I've seen in a while. I'm guessing their "ace" is FA signee Julian Martin. I'm also guessing their SP4 is 41 year old, 16 DUR, 53 STA, 48 HEALTH Andres Silva. If there were to be a 5th starter, I'd have to guess that it's 41 year old, 15 DUR, 49 STA, 61 Health Jorel Shaw. It's really all quite hard to tell though.
Power Bat? I'm guessing Cy Kingman and his .899 career MiL OPS. All Stars? This team didn't have any last year, heck it didn't even have a post-season award winner of any kind. And not only does Peter Chang have a ML contract, he's actually making $827,000 this year! Daniel Jefferson should contribute nicely this year, but he's got a 58 health rating, so who knows. In fact, San Juan has the worst overall health rating of any 25 man roster in the bigs, although fortunately with an 18/19 training/medical budget.
Now this is where it get's worse. 50 wins and you get to stay right? Wrong. Fry needs 62 wins or he is history. Good luck!
New York Yankees
Prediction: top 10 draft pick
After a long and successful NL run, the Yankees have folded into what is very likely to be the bottom of the standings as their pundits predicted all along. Their 3 World Series appearances in 4 years is only bested by the 3 consecutive World Series appearances by the Metropolitans, their cross-town rivals. And much like their NY counterparts, the long run of success took it's toll on the Yankee farm system, and left them with little alternative but to start over.
Gone are Yankee legends Haywood Towers, Brian Murata, & Bernard Rhodes. Even home grown 28 year old super star Darron Kirkland got traded. In are journeymen like Victor Lawrence & Pete Hernandez. Not even Grover Rowand, a shell of his former self, can perk up the Yankee faithful during this down year. The Yankees are looking forward to the future, and only next year's much anticipated FA Class can do much to save them from years at the bottom.
Chicago Jayhawks
Prediction: 5th seed, knocked out by Washington
Only a late season collapse at the helm by GM thor"I'm resting my players for October"ku kept this storied franchise from adding another chapter to it's playoff story. Well, that and the awful starting pitching. And perhaps Shawn Robinson, although you hate to throw a good guy like that under the bus. I mean, the .296 OBP wasn't great, but... nevermind.
What's important is that GM thorku was back behind the bus after last year's historic debacle and more determined than ever to make this the year that his franchise returns to the playoffs. Acquired via trade were Diego Nunez, the team's probable new ace. Dale Rooney shores up the back of the rotation, replacing the departed and incredibly effective Rex Byrd. A handful of other trades help prop things up here and there, but the story here is what's coming from the MiL's.
Will future phenom Bartolo Estrada be pitching in Wrigley 20 games in? Jimmie Estrella? Rigo Gutierrez? Cliff Spencer?
The answer to each of these questions will go a long way to determining who wins the NL East, and who get's the 5th seed. There will be very little margin for error.
Washington Bureaucrats
Prediction: Division Champions, No Playoff Bye, 96 wins, NL Pennant.
Last year Washington posted an 88 win season, and this year they are going to be better. How much better? That depends on the following 4 guys:
Chili Easley
Garrett Lorraine
Albert Brooks
Albie Cruz
My guess is that the first two definitely come up after 20 or so games, while the second two stay down until late September. Albie Cruz is ready for the show, but with Tomlinson, Towers, Lorraine (*shudder*) and some combination of Kline/Hayes, it's doubtful that he is going to be needed per se. Brooks could benefit the Big club with his bat, but could use the time at AAA more so than Cruz.
All in all, this 70 million payroll, 20 million prospect budgeted team will be a frightening NL contender for years to come, and I'll be very surprised if they don't win at least 4 of the next 5 NL East Division titles, and probably as many NL Pennants to go with it.
Friday, February 13, 2009
AL North Preview: Season 10
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Season 9: 112-50, AL North Champs, lost to the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.
Notable acquisitions: none
Notable departures: Tommy Liverman, Toby Joseph
The Fatboys bid adieu to a 2-time MVP and a solid rotation regular without bringing in any significant replacements. It'll hurt Minnesota less than you might think, however; Liverman was coming off of a sub-par performance that should easily be made up for by young phenom Kirk Harrison, and Toby Joseph isn't close to being the same player he was during his stellar MVP year 4 seasons ago. Also, he filled the role of DH last season; while the position appears to be vacant right now, it shouldn't be hard for the organization to find an able replacement. For what it's worth, the Fatboys won 8 more games than their Expected Win Percentage estimated. Expecting Minny to set a new franchise record in wins again would be foolish, but they should still be the clear favorites to win the division.
Prediction: 106-56, AL North Champs
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Season 9: 96-66, Wildcard, lost to the Minnesota Fatboys in the ALDS.
Notable acquisitions: none
Notable departures: Calvin Brock, Marlon Martin
Like the Fatboys, the Europeans made little noise during the offseason, opting to rely heavily on their kiddie corps. All but two of their players are 31 or younger, and both of those guys are fairly expendable. Losing Calvin Brock (ERA of 6.60 last season) is addition by subtraction; replicating Marlon Martin's performance might prove to be more difficult, but Buffalo appears to have a glut of capable 2B/LF types anyways. There's not a whole lot to say here; the Europeans don't appear to be any better or worse than last season. We're likely to see more of the same here.
Prediction: 96-66, 1st Wildcard slot
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Season 9: 88-74, 3rd place
Notable acquisitions: Brian Murata
Notable departures: Keith Fleming, Daniel Jefferson
The Fightin' Boeheims went out and grabbed the best closer in Gleeman World history in Brian Murata. Unfortunately, Murata is 37 years old, and hasn't aged gracefully. While he's still a very talented reliever, there are questions as to how many innings he'll be able to toss this season. Losing the likes of Fleming and Jefferson, despite their modest production last season, could actually end up being pretty significant. Syracuse currently only carries 5 pitchers capable of starting (unless you count Raul Sosa); if one goes down, they'll be in pretty bad shape. Similarly, the Fightin' Boeheims only carry one shortstop in Santiago Chantres; while his glovework is very good, he'll be hard-pressed to even approach Jefferson's modest Season 9 OPS of .706. Moreover, if he goes down with an injury, Syracuse doesn't really have a backup plan; AAA shortstop Torii Stevenson is the only viable defensive SS in the minors, but his career OPS in the minors doesn't even crack .600. Furthermore, the roster is littered with old, declining veterans; it'll be difficult to ask them to maintain last year's level of production. If everything breaks right, this could be a playoff team. Unfortuately, there's a lot here that can go wrong.
Prediction: 84-78, 3rd place
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Season 9: 59-103, 4th place
Notable acquisitions: Dusty Zoltan, Miguel Alou
Notable departures: Pasqual Encarnacion, Alexander Christensen, Juan Moya, Carlos Cordero, Yamil Trinidad, Terry O'Connor
The Tumbleweeeds (formerly known as the Montreal Grand Orange) are coming off of a dismal 103 loss season; ownership has publicly announced that GM sdedalus must improve the team by at least 7 wins to keep his job. The franchise, as mentioned above, has moved from hitter-friendly Olympic Stadium to neutral Cash Field; whether that helps or hurts the team remains to be seen. Zoltan is as good defensively as any shortstop in the league, and he can actually hit a little, too. His addition should help a pitching staff that's largely been unchanged, save for a full season of Zeus Valentine. Losing guys like Encarnacion and Moya shouldn't matter; both were dismally bad last season, and it won't take much to improve upon their performances. On the offensive side, the team did little to address holes left by Cordero, Trinidad and O'Connor, instead choosing to rely on in-house options. It's not clear whether this team is better than last year's; sdedalus might be forced to make some moves as the season progresses, because what they have might not be enough.
Prediction: 63-99 if they don't make any major moves, 4th place.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
AL South Season 10 Preview
Tampa Bay
Richmond
San Antonio
Florida
(Season 9, 95-67, 1st)
Otis Stein, a left-handed specialist, is the only free agent acquisition the Devil Rays made this year. Significant free agency losses also ended up being a single player - Jay Piazza who was able to turn his newly found free agency into a huge contract.
Most of the star players on Tampa, such as Vasco Santiago and Dennis James among others, are starting to see small declines in their skills. While there doesn't appear to be any huge collapse on the horizon, there does not appear to be any current young major league players making large strides over the last year. 22-year old Tony Pascual will start the year in AAA, and probably needs at least another full year of seasoning before he will be ready for the majors.
These facts combined with the slight overachieving pythag record from last year lead me to believe that Tampa Bay is due for a small drop off this year.
Prediction 87-75 1stRichmond
(Season 9, 76-86, 2nd)
Scott Thornton and Galahad Christiansen were both signed to aid the bullpen, and it appears that Nigel Whang and Sparky Weaver were signed to try to snag screaming line drives off right-handed hitters turning on hanging sliders and curve balls from Thornton and Christiansen (I kid). The Free Agency Foursome should be able to provide modest upgrades to the Richmond roster. What was that? Thornton was actually with Richmond last year, declined a mutual option for 3.0 million and the signed a 2-year deal for 1.79 million TOTAL? Well we'll call him an upgrade since he's coming back at a much lower price.
With Tampa Bay looking to fall off this year and the division for the taking, this humble writer just doesn't see any prospects ready to make the jump or moves made in the off season that have improved the team enough to make a run this season
Prediction 77-85 3rd
San Antonio
(Season 9, 72-90, 3rd)
Toby Joseph and Domingo Lee round out the Sting free agent pickups for season 10. Joseph should bring a winning "been there before" attitude to the clubhouse as he was considered the heart of back to back Minnesota Fatboys titles.Ronald Levrault hopes to continue on his steady improvement since his Season 8 rookie year and there are already rumblings of a potential MVP award for the Gold Glove 2B
Raul Blasco will likely be ready by mid season if not sooner, ready to take over 3B.
Prediction 83-79 2nd
Florida
(Season 9, 64-98, 4th)
Kris Foster and Claude Kydd are the two SP pickups for Florida and they appear to be talent clones (seriously they're literally almost the exact same pitcher) Izzy Richard was lost to free agency which will hurt the bullpen. The Cottonmouths need to win 61 games this year after winning only 64 in Season 9. Let's look to the minor league for potential additional help.
Posiedon Smyth might be able to contribute at the ML level, but his glove currently (and may never) be sufficient for 2B in the majors, which lowers his stock as his bat isn't quite enough for a corner OF spot.
B.C. Ortiz is still a 22-year old in AA and will not be ready for the majors this year unless forced in due to injury.
Beyond those two, this cocky-ass writer sees dark days ahead for the Cottonmouths. I think this might come down to the final week.
Prediction 62-100 4th place LIVES TO SEE ANOTHER DAY!
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
NL North Season 10 Preview
Milwaukee Twindyans
(Season 9 Record: 85-77, Lost in 1st Round of the Playoffs)
Season 9 represented the swan song of contention for the Twindyans. After riding the core of Dennis Nelson, Vic Alfonzo, and Pete Skinner to annual contention in the NL North, owner Coolio4433 decided to breakup his team and rebuild it for contention in a couple of seasons.
Despite the losses of Skinner and Nelson, the offense as a whole is not going to be terrible. It is led by Brooks Zaun, Luis Lopez, Darrin Murphy and Kelvim Lyons; though that quartet certainly will not set the world on fire. The OF has seen the most displacement and the change alone probably represents a downgrade of 8-10 wins from last season.
The pitching remains surprisingly solid. While there may not be a pitcher you'd expect to post an ERA below 3.75 or so on the staff, there is no obvious weakness either. Andre Kelly is the biggest addition and he, along with Wayne Betancourt, was the centerpiece of the huge trade with Monterrey from earlier this year. In this age of constant turnover, it is nice to see that Vic Alfonzo will retire a Twindyan.
Prediction: 75-87, 4th Place in the Division, misses the playoffs
Ottawa Otters
(Season 9 Record: 82-80, Missed Playoffs)
Ottawa pushed hard for a division title in season 9 but sputtered down the stretch falling three games short of Milwaukee. However, the team possesses a strong, young core of players that can be built around for many seasons to come. The team made a couple of free agent additions but they are mere supplements to the strong young core. Ottawa will be in a dog fight all year for the division title fighting it out with Vancouver.
The team's best position players are Tony Cela and Brandon Stewart who form a strong foundation for the team. The team supplemented this duo with Cody Woods, Mikey Bennett, and Haywood Lincoln along with young gun Kurt Anderson in the OF. The offense lacks a truly dynamic presence but it should be a middle-of-the-road caliber lineup regardless.
Aurelio Martin, Vinny Matthews, and Pablo Campos form one of the best young pitching trios in the game. Josh Houston leads the bullpen and Hector Ramirez should end up being a solid setup man. However, the remainder of the pitching staff ranges from nondescript to downright bad. The pitching staff should be slightly above average but if any one of the big 5 pitchers goes down with an injury, the staff immediately becomes below average.
Prediction: 82-80
Vancouver Vigilantes
(Season 9 Record: 77-85, Missed Playoffs)
After appearing on an upward trajectory in Season 8, the mere hint of discussing a new marketing strategy appears to have thrown the entire franchise off kilter and resulted in a disappointing season 9 that saw a regression in both actual and expected records. However, Vancouver had a very decisive off-season and should compete for a division title in Season 10 in the NL North.
The Vigilante offense was just slightly below average in Season 9 but should become above average this season due to some key additions. Turk Badilla, while having a bit of a tin glove, is one of the best hitting shortstops in the NL, if not the game. Joseph Wang, Miguel Bennett, and Douglas Coleridge are a very strong OF both offensively and defensively. The one-two combo of Daryle Petrick and Keith Green will form one of the best catching tandems in the league and should be an offensive machine at a traditionally defensive position.
The pitching staff from one year ago should see a tremendous increase in productivity this year and should power the team to its first division championship in NL North history. The offseason's big additions of Pat Bowen and Juan Gonzales, along with the promotion of Coco Ferrell, represent a dramatic upgrade from last season's team. The promotion of the best closer prospect in the game, Shigetoshi Itou, is also important for the bullpen and he will form a great 8th-9th inning combination with Clyde Haynes.
Prediction: 85-77, first place in the division
Sioux Falls Gunslingers
(Season 9 Record: 69-93, Missed Playoffs)
The Gunslingers is a team that has one definite, definite strength and is below average everywhere else. While some would see this as a problem, and it will be in Season 9, the team's absolutely dominating bullpen gives it a base from which to build on in the future.
The team's offense in season 9 was downright dreadful. While the team's OBP was a decent .320, the team had absolutely no power posting the second lowest SLG in the league. The team was led, position-wise, by Scot Rhodes, Carlos Carreras, and Preston Webb, all of whom are solid for their position both offensively and defensively. The team aggressively, with a capital A, promoted Hector Bell and Al Rapp during the offseason. How they fare this season will have important implications for the offense as a whole.
While the team's rotation is nothing special, with the exception of Pablo Martin, the Sioux Falls bullpen is far and away the best in the game right now. Crash Miller leads the crew and is the best relief pitcher in the majors and Larry Piatt, Rob Hutch, and Matt Guerrero are no slouches either. All of them have ratings to back up their performance so there should be no regression there.
Prediction: 76-86, 3rd place in the division, misses the playoffs
(Season 9 Record: 85-77, Lost in 1st Round of the Playoffs)
Season 9 represented the swan song of contention for the Twindyans. After riding the core of Dennis Nelson, Vic Alfonzo, and Pete Skinner to annual contention in the NL North, owner Coolio4433 decided to breakup his team and rebuild it for contention in a couple of seasons.
Despite the losses of Skinner and Nelson, the offense as a whole is not going to be terrible. It is led by Brooks Zaun, Luis Lopez, Darrin Murphy and Kelvim Lyons; though that quartet certainly will not set the world on fire. The OF has seen the most displacement and the change alone probably represents a downgrade of 8-10 wins from last season.
The pitching remains surprisingly solid. While there may not be a pitcher you'd expect to post an ERA below 3.75 or so on the staff, there is no obvious weakness either. Andre Kelly is the biggest addition and he, along with Wayne Betancourt, was the centerpiece of the huge trade with Monterrey from earlier this year. In this age of constant turnover, it is nice to see that Vic Alfonzo will retire a Twindyan.
Prediction: 75-87, 4th Place in the Division, misses the playoffs
Ottawa Otters
(Season 9 Record: 82-80, Missed Playoffs)
Ottawa pushed hard for a division title in season 9 but sputtered down the stretch falling three games short of Milwaukee. However, the team possesses a strong, young core of players that can be built around for many seasons to come. The team made a couple of free agent additions but they are mere supplements to the strong young core. Ottawa will be in a dog fight all year for the division title fighting it out with Vancouver.
The team's best position players are Tony Cela and Brandon Stewart who form a strong foundation for the team. The team supplemented this duo with Cody Woods, Mikey Bennett, and Haywood Lincoln along with young gun Kurt Anderson in the OF. The offense lacks a truly dynamic presence but it should be a middle-of-the-road caliber lineup regardless.
Aurelio Martin, Vinny Matthews, and Pablo Campos form one of the best young pitching trios in the game. Josh Houston leads the bullpen and Hector Ramirez should end up being a solid setup man. However, the remainder of the pitching staff ranges from nondescript to downright bad. The pitching staff should be slightly above average but if any one of the big 5 pitchers goes down with an injury, the staff immediately becomes below average.
Prediction: 82-80
Vancouver Vigilantes
(Season 9 Record: 77-85, Missed Playoffs)
After appearing on an upward trajectory in Season 8, the mere hint of discussing a new marketing strategy appears to have thrown the entire franchise off kilter and resulted in a disappointing season 9 that saw a regression in both actual and expected records. However, Vancouver had a very decisive off-season and should compete for a division title in Season 10 in the NL North.
The Vigilante offense was just slightly below average in Season 9 but should become above average this season due to some key additions. Turk Badilla, while having a bit of a tin glove, is one of the best hitting shortstops in the NL, if not the game. Joseph Wang, Miguel Bennett, and Douglas Coleridge are a very strong OF both offensively and defensively. The one-two combo of Daryle Petrick and Keith Green will form one of the best catching tandems in the league and should be an offensive machine at a traditionally defensive position.
The pitching staff from one year ago should see a tremendous increase in productivity this year and should power the team to its first division championship in NL North history. The offseason's big additions of Pat Bowen and Juan Gonzales, along with the promotion of Coco Ferrell, represent a dramatic upgrade from last season's team. The promotion of the best closer prospect in the game, Shigetoshi Itou, is also important for the bullpen and he will form a great 8th-9th inning combination with Clyde Haynes.
Prediction: 85-77, first place in the division
Sioux Falls Gunslingers
(Season 9 Record: 69-93, Missed Playoffs)
The Gunslingers is a team that has one definite, definite strength and is below average everywhere else. While some would see this as a problem, and it will be in Season 9, the team's absolutely dominating bullpen gives it a base from which to build on in the future.
The team's offense in season 9 was downright dreadful. While the team's OBP was a decent .320, the team had absolutely no power posting the second lowest SLG in the league. The team was led, position-wise, by Scot Rhodes, Carlos Carreras, and Preston Webb, all of whom are solid for their position both offensively and defensively. The team aggressively, with a capital A, promoted Hector Bell and Al Rapp during the offseason. How they fare this season will have important implications for the offense as a whole.
While the team's rotation is nothing special, with the exception of Pablo Martin, the Sioux Falls bullpen is far and away the best in the game right now. Crash Miller leads the crew and is the best relief pitcher in the majors and Larry Piatt, Rob Hutch, and Matt Guerrero are no slouches either. All of them have ratings to back up their performance so there should be no regression there.
Prediction: 76-86, 3rd place in the division, misses the playoffs
Monday, February 9, 2009
AL West Season 10 Preview
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(Season 9, 83-79, Swept in the first round by the Buffalo Europeans)
Jay Piazza, 5 years, 72.2 Million. 23.05 Million committed in Season 10 payroll alone. Let that sink in for a minute - OK back? While we haven't seen and won't see the full effect of True Free Agency (tm) * until season 11, this might provide a small taste of what is to come.
* True Free Agency came about after a near lockout/strike that was sparked by suspicious signings of John Carrol and Don Masato to long term below market contracts within hours of each other. The rumblings of collusion between owners having some sort of gentleman's agreement not to sign each other's star players thus forcing them to take "hometown discounts" had been rumored for years, but this put it over the top. The case eventually when to an arbitrator who ended up voiding the contracts and ensuring that True Free Agency (tm) was available to all in season 11. One official, who asked not be named stated "I'd love to see what Carroll thinks he can get on the open market, our trainers and scouts have already seen his core physical skills dropping a recently as season 9".
While Piazza has only topped 200 innings once in Season 7, it was mainly due to being buried in bullpens and limited to spot starting. A very curious trend (if two examples can make a trend) has been detected over Piazza's career - as soon as his teams finally let him start full time, they let him walk to free agency - and this was BEFORE True Free Agency (tm) was implemented.
With San Francisco's pitching friendly/home run suppressing park, Piazza should put up some good numbers, although he will be relying heavily on his bullpen as he will not be expected to go much deeper than the 6th inning in most games. While the price may seem steep, this signing should ensure that the Berserkers win the AL West again in season 10.
Local San Francisco Review columnist Boof McDouche disagrees as he was recently caught screaming, "He's 62-63 in a career, HE DOESN'T KNOW HOW TO WIN!"
Prediction 89-73, 1st Place, 4th Seed
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(Season 9, 75-87, No playoffs)
With a protected first round top 16 pick, the Tackleberries got aggressive in the free agent market signing Starting Pitcher Juan Moya and Catcher Bernie Guerrero. Both should upgrade the team as the Tackleberries also had not significant losses during the off season.
Cheyenne underperformed their pythag by roughly 8 games last year, as they scored more runs than they allowed. Most of their top players are still in their primes and have not seen any significant decline (yet), which should makes me believe that if everything breaks right, they could challenge the Berserkers for the AL West Title.
Since they didn't sign a 72 million dollar long relief pitcher ;-), I'm saying they just miss out on the title and the playoffs by reversing their record from last year.
Prediction 87-75, 2nd Place, No Playoffs
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(Season 9, 75-87, No playoffs)
Juan Candelaria appears to be the biggest signing, and Bud Jones appears to be the biggest loss to free agency. Let's compare the two so it will make it easier for me to predict where the Hangars are heading in Season 10 without having to scrape through the minor league system to try and figure out who might be promoted to help the team.
Candelaria can play 3B at least at an average level, while Jones is a sub-par RF - advantage Candelaria here. Both are 31 - Tie
Candelaria career line .264/.322/.493 playing in neutralish Anaheim for most of his ML career Jones career line .310/.374/.510 playing in 5 different cities include a 2nd stop in New York maybe a tad pitcherish parks. Jones by quite a bit here.
Candelaria Contract, 2 years 12.3 million. Jones Contract, 2 years 6.4 million. Jones once again
So far looks like a net loss going into season 10....
There is talk of prospect SP Otis Combs (4 + or ++ pitches!) and 2B Gorkys Cubillan (nice range, decent bat) coming up sometime this season, but they might not have a huge impact as rookies if they hit the majors at all.
Prediction 72-90, 3rd Place, No Playoffs
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Season 9, 62-100, No playoffs)
MINIMUM WIN ALERT! Going from 44 to 62 wins from season 8 to 9 was quite an accomplishment for the Armijos, but they'll need to win at least 63 games this year to avoid "going bankrupt" and being forced out of the league. So with that uplifting news, let's see what's been happening in Vegas to ensure that this goal is met or exceeded in season 10.
35-year old starting pitcher Charles Ott was brought back for a reasonable 1-year 5 million dollar contract after coming back with a much stronger performance in Season 9 after a career worst Season 8. That's it for Free Agency (so far), but that isn't where Las Vegas stopped regarding team improvement.
Robinson Perez, Bum Marte, Matthew McCovey, Norm Hayes, Roscoe Campbell, and Al Chavez were all acquired via trade and should all fill holes in the lineup with better than replacement level performances.
Alex Bravo should be able to put up much better numbers after a disappointing rookie Season 9 which should also help things along.
There might be some sweating at certain points of the year, maybe even into the last week, but I think Las Vegas will be around in season 11.
Prediction 69-93, 4th Place, No Playoffs
Friday, February 6, 2009
Payroll Difference
Here's a quick snapshot to look at which teams increased payroll between the end of season 9 and which teams are cutting back.
Team / Difference (in millions)
Minnesota +35
Washington D.C. +26
San Antonio +20
Oklahoma City +18
Anaheim +17
Chicago +17
Tacoma +17
Monterrey +17
Philadelphia +14
St. Louis +12
Boise +10
Pittsburgh +10
Syracuse +7
Cheyenne +7
Tampa Bay +6
Ottawa +5
Richmond +5
Vancouver +2
Florida +1
Iowa City 0
Los Angeles 0
Buffalo -1
Montreal/Fargo -1
San Francisco -2
Boston -3
Las Vegas -3
Sioux Falls -9
Salem -11
San Juan -12
New York Yankees -18
Milwaukee -22
New York Mets -35
Team / Difference (in millions)
Minnesota +35
Washington D.C. +26
San Antonio +20
Oklahoma City +18
Anaheim +17
Chicago +17
Tacoma +17
Monterrey +17
Philadelphia +14
St. Louis +12
Boise +10
Pittsburgh +10
Syracuse +7
Cheyenne +7
Tampa Bay +6
Ottawa +5
Richmond +5
Vancouver +2
Florida +1
Iowa City 0
Los Angeles 0
Buffalo -1
Montreal/Fargo -1
San Francisco -2
Boston -3
Las Vegas -3
Sioux Falls -9
Salem -11
San Juan -12
New York Yankees -18
Milwaukee -22
New York Mets -35
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