Saturday, May 21, 2011

Hall Of Fame Candidates: Season 19

In an effort to help everyone evaluate the Hall of Fame candidates for Season 19, here are their career numbers simplified for easy comparisons (along with my analysis). I've included all pitchers with 1,000 innings and all hitters with 6,500 plate appearances.
PITCHER              IP      ERA
Gary Long 3000 3.50
Benny Molina 2700 4.00
Max Leary 2600 3.50
Jayson Ellis 2100 4.00
Miguel Torres 1800 4.00
Billy Stovall 1600 3.50
Tim Stark 1250 3.25
J.D. Jackson 1050 3.25
My take: Gary Long should be a no-brainer pick as one of the truly elite pitchers in Gleeman World history, but Max Leary is under-appreciated. Leary has the same ERA as Long in about 13 percent fewer innings and is clearly ahead of the other starter candidates. Tim Stark and J.D. Jackson are among the top relievers in Gleeman World history, but I'm not very keen on voting for relievers when they have only half as many innings as various starter candidates.
HITTER               PA      OPS     POS
Bernard Rhodes 10300 .925 1B/LF
Darrin Murphy 8400 .850 2B/1B
Bud Jones 8300 .850 LF/RF
Luis Cervantes 7700 .875 1B/DH
Ralph Jackson 7700 .875 DH/1B
Thumper Neagle 7600 .900 DH/C
Nate McMillan 7400 .850 DH/1B
Brooks Zaun 7300 .825 RF/3B
Bono Hughes 7300 .775 3B/RF
R.J. Granados 7000 .875 2B/LF
Darwin Stocker 7000 .850 RF/LF
Ted Simpson 6900 .900 1B/DH
Dennis James 6900 .850 SS/3B
Jose Morales 6700 .825 LF/RF
Nigel Whang 6700 .800 CF/LF
Tony Cortes 6600 .825 SS/3B
My take: As one of three Gleeman World players with 3,000 hits Bernard Rhodes is a no-brainer even more so than Long on the pitching side. After that it gets a bit muddled, as the ballot is filled with first basemen, designated hitters, and corner outfielders with OPS in the .850-.900 range. I tend to think middle infielders and center fielders are too often overlooked, so I'd highlight Darrin Murphy as being very underrated with the second-most plate appearances of any candidate and a bat that compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates while playing mostly second base (albeit not particularly well).

Dennis James' bat also compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates, yet he played third base and shortstop. Having only 6,900 plate appearances hurts his case, but his .850 OPS was significantly more valuable than all those .850-.900 OPS from 1B/LF/RF. Jose Morales has gotten substantial support in the past despite only 6,700 plate appearances and he's a solid enough candidate, but I'm not sure why anyone would rank him above Nigel Whang. Morales had an .800 OPS and 600 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a left fielder, while Whang had an .800 OPS and 500 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a center fielder. Their offensive contributions are nearly identical and once you factor in defense and positional adjustments Whang should clearly be ahead.

My ballot: Bernard Rhodes, Gary Long, Max Leary, Darrin Murphy.

Monday, May 9, 2011

NL Season 18 Preview Followup

I was curious as to how successful I was on my preseason predictions. So here goes:

NL North:
Milwaukee Twindyans
Prediction: 98-64, NL North Champions
Actual: 109-53, NL North Champions
Difference: +11

Columbus Santa Marias
Prediction: 64-98, 3rd place
Actual: 56-106, 4th place
Difference: -8

Cleveland Redbirds
Prediction: 91-71, WC
Actual: 95-67, WC
Difference: +4

Hartford Dark Blues
Prediction: 53-109, 4th place
Actual: 63-99, 3rd place
Difference: +10


NL East:
Chicago Jayhawks

Prediction: 94-68, NL East Champions
Actual: 77-85, 3rd place
Difference: -17 (oops)

New York Yankees
Prediction: 90-72, maybe WC
Actual: 97-65, NL East Champs
Difference: +7

Scranton Nard Doggs
Prediction: 71-91, 3rd place
Actual: 80-82, 2nd place
Difference: +9

Washington Bureaucrats
Prediction: 60-102, 4th place
Actual: 67-95, 4th place
Difference: +7


NL South:
Oklahoma City Twins
Prediction:
85-77, NL South Champs
Actual: 80-82, 3rd place
Difference: -5

Iowa City Comics
Prediction: 78-84, 4th place
Actual: 74-88, 4th place
Difference: -4

St. Louis Greys
Prediction: 83-79, 2nd place
Actual: 87-75, NL South Champs
Difference: +4

Nashville Havoc
Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place
Actual: 84-78, 2nd place
Difference: +3

Average Difference Between Prediction and Actual: 7.4 wins
Worst Prediction: -17 (Chicago Jayhawks)
Best Prediction: +3 (Nashville Havoc)