Parentheses denote last week's ranking, current record.
1. (1, 17-7) New York Metropolitans
2. (2, 15-11) Minnesota Fatboys
3. (5, 18-6) Milwaukee Twindyans
4. (7, 15-9) Alburquerque Isotopes
5. (4, 14-10) Anaheim Anteaters
6. (3, 11-13) New York Yankees
7. (12, 17-7) Buffalo Europeans
8. (17, 16-8) Boise Mashers
9. (13, 13-11) Iowa City Comics
10. (6, 11-13) Boston Red Sox
11. (10, 13-11) Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims
12. (18, 12-12) Cheyenne Tackleberries
13. (19, 12-12) Madison Street Mifflin Boys
14. (15, 12-12) Sioux Falls Gunslingers
15. (22, 15-9) Richmond Roustabouts
16. (14, 15-9) Florida Cottonmouths
17. (9, 10-14) Nashville Twang
18. (28, 13-11) Washington D.C. Bureaucrats
19. (29, 13-11) Oklahoma City Twins
20. (11, 11-13) St. Louis Greys
21. (23, 12-12) Vancouver Vigilantes
22. (8, 10-14) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
23. (25, 11-13) Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
24. (26, 12-12) Chicago Jayhawks
25. (32, 11-13) Tacoma Downpour
26. (20, 9-15) San Antonio Sting
27. (30, 10-14) Montreal Grand Orange
28. (16, 8-16) Philadelphia Phenomenauts
29. (27, 8-16) Las Vegas Armijos
30. (21, 8-16) Monterrey Conquistadores
31. (24, 6-18) Los Angeles Hangars
32. (31, 7-17) Colorado Spring Silver Stars
Monday, May 26, 2008
Friday, May 23, 2008
AL West Preview: Season 7
Albuquerque (Season 6: 97-65, AL West Champions)
A .643 expected winning percentage tied Albuquerque for 4th best in Gleeman World in Season 6. And while a 2nd best 1078 runs scored was not a surprise, the 805 runs allowed certainly were - only 5 AL teams can point to a better number, and the Isotopes play in a hitters park. The final power rankings ranked this team 5th overall in the standings, and only a rude 2nd round encounter with the Fatboys dampened their seasons success.
In building on his season 6 success GM mitcho8 is going the road less traveled. Usually a team that has come close many times, but never close enough, choses to continue to ramp up when given the chance. You know the routine - increase payroll, trade away prospects, acquire veterans at all costs? Well, the Isotopes eschewed that path, and good for them. Walking out the door this offseason were 38 year old SPs Pascual Ozuna and Fernando Castilla, 33 year old 1B Jesus Reynoso and 35 year old ClA Tim Stark. Certainly a distinguished, if very old, bunch.
Replacing them are FA signees Butch Cintron and Max Manzanillo, both fantastic values, SS Omar Trevino via trade and a ton of prospects coming up from the farm: Nigel Chen, Glen Fowler, Michael Barrett and Osvaldo Cruz.
How will this team fare in Season 7? Well, they've already won a battle of sorts - their player payroll hovered right around where it's been for a few seasons now, and that has a great deal of value. We could also be seeing a glimpse of prospect Guy Wise in short order. In the end, I think the team is due for a small dip, a playoff appearance, yet ultimately more of the same.
Prediction: 93 wins, Division Champs
Cheyenne (Season 6: 80-82)
Life is certainly good in Cheyenne, as the payroll keeps going down and the wins keep going up. Falling just one win short of .500, Cheyenne placed 4 players into the All-Star game, all under the age of 30 (at the time anyways), then proceeded to welcome an almost entirely new cast of characters around them.
Meet: SS Hoss Bennett, RP Eduardo Castro, SP Vin Gipson, RP Milton Cameron (returning to the Show), RF Danys Duran, Stud 1B Dave Coles, SP Jay Brower, C Oswaldo Espinosa and finally and perhaps even leastly SS Buddy Hermansen. Whew.
While I won't go through and individually compare the new vs. the old, suffice to say that the old is highlighted by former Cottonmouth All-Star, now 35 year old and still FA (his agent is standing by the phone!) Matty Mitchell. This team is definitely getting better.
Prediction: 88-74, missing the playoffs by 1 game.
Los Angeles (Season 6: 66-96)
LA continued it's 5 season old tumble, landing on Route 66 at seasons end. Perhaps most concerning was the franchises still high $80 mm payroll figure for that season, leaving it well amongst the worst in the world when measuring by cost per wins. Usually when a team is mid-tumble, it does it's best to jettison payroll and rebuild. But instead, LA has chosen to.. well, I have no idea what they are doing TBH, but they are definitely doing something!
In regards to salary at least, season 7 is showing that the franchise is in rebuild mode, as the franchise set it's payroll at a record low $62 million. In other regards, it's been a mixed bag, but an incredibly busy bag, as the franchise swung 5 trades of significance this offseason in a somewhat confusing show of... well, decide for yourself.
Let's look at the Pittsburg trade. LA gives up a AAAA arm, and get's back Donald Lee., a player offered up for free by his former owner. Why was he offered up? How about a .686 OPS in Season 6, 3 trips to the DL in as many seasons (51 health), 3 years/$20mm remaining, and a 66 glove for a 2B. It's certainly got some upside, but for a 66 win team that should be cutting payroll and rebuilding, this expensive high risk acquisition is a little puzzling.
Or the Syracuse trade. LA dumps a bad contract (The pitches are a killer) includes a valuable CF for the trouble, and gets back 3 ML guys (2 making the min) none of whom appear to be more than just solid. This would be your standard "we are rebuilding" deal, LA gets out from under Estrella's contract - but in conjunction with the deal above and the deals below, it's a little hard to see where team management sees things going.
Take the Boise trade. LAA trades Keith Bryant, he of the amazing ratings, 30 IP limit and 400k salary, for a 31 year old catcher with a 59 PC and a 5.6mm salary. Add this to a $1 million dollar "acquisition" of 31 year old C Tony Dixon, who makes 1.5mm himself.
And lastly, we welcome 34 year old DH Charlie Stevens to the mix. While very pricey, and old, he does still have a good deal of pop in his bat. And while it didn't cost LA that great a prospect, I can't see why LA would want a 34 year old DH with some $18mm due?
Prediction: Welcome back to 75 win territory
Las Vegas (Season 6: 57-105)
Let the record show that we should probably not accept bosoxx05 back into Gleeman World.
And let the record show that new GM eliason kicked things off with a bang, signing three type B's (retaining all his own picks):Lewis Stephens, Eduardo Castillo, Scott Watkins, and a couple other FA's: D.T. Logan, Lawrence Bryne.
Combine the retention of the draft picks with non-harmful contracts and zero trades thus far, and we seem to have the makings of a good new owner. Welcome GM, and good luck!
Prediction: 69 wins, no trades until after the All-Star break (please)
A .643 expected winning percentage tied Albuquerque for 4th best in Gleeman World in Season 6. And while a 2nd best 1078 runs scored was not a surprise, the 805 runs allowed certainly were - only 5 AL teams can point to a better number, and the Isotopes play in a hitters park. The final power rankings ranked this team 5th overall in the standings, and only a rude 2nd round encounter with the Fatboys dampened their seasons success.In building on his season 6 success GM mitcho8 is going the road less traveled. Usually a team that has come close many times, but never close enough, choses to continue to ramp up when given the chance. You know the routine - increase payroll, trade away prospects, acquire veterans at all costs? Well, the Isotopes eschewed that path, and good for them. Walking out the door this offseason were 38 year old SPs Pascual Ozuna and Fernando Castilla, 33 year old 1B Jesus Reynoso and 35 year old ClA Tim Stark. Certainly a distinguished, if very old, bunch.
Replacing them are FA signees Butch Cintron and Max Manzanillo, both fantastic values, SS Omar Trevino via trade and a ton of prospects coming up from the farm: Nigel Chen, Glen Fowler, Michael Barrett and Osvaldo Cruz.
How will this team fare in Season 7? Well, they've already won a battle of sorts - their player payroll hovered right around where it's been for a few seasons now, and that has a great deal of value. We could also be seeing a glimpse of prospect Guy Wise in short order. In the end, I think the team is due for a small dip, a playoff appearance, yet ultimately more of the same.
Prediction: 93 wins, Division Champs
Cheyenne (Season 6: 80-82)
Life is certainly good in Cheyenne, as the payroll keeps going down and the wins keep going up. Falling just one win short of .500, Cheyenne placed 4 players into the All-Star game, all under the age of 30 (at the time anyways), then proceeded to welcome an almost entirely new cast of characters around them.Meet: SS Hoss Bennett, RP Eduardo Castro, SP Vin Gipson, RP Milton Cameron (returning to the Show), RF Danys Duran, Stud 1B Dave Coles, SP Jay Brower, C Oswaldo Espinosa and finally and perhaps even leastly SS Buddy Hermansen. Whew.
While I won't go through and individually compare the new vs. the old, suffice to say that the old is highlighted by former Cottonmouth All-Star, now 35 year old and still FA (his agent is standing by the phone!) Matty Mitchell. This team is definitely getting better.
Prediction: 88-74, missing the playoffs by 1 game.
Los Angeles (Season 6: 66-96)
LA continued it's 5 season old tumble, landing on Route 66 at seasons end. Perhaps most concerning was the franchises still high $80 mm payroll figure for that season, leaving it well amongst the worst in the world when measuring by cost per wins. Usually when a team is mid-tumble, it does it's best to jettison payroll and rebuild. But instead, LA has chosen to.. well, I have no idea what they are doing TBH, but they are definitely doing something!In regards to salary at least, season 7 is showing that the franchise is in rebuild mode, as the franchise set it's payroll at a record low $62 million. In other regards, it's been a mixed bag, but an incredibly busy bag, as the franchise swung 5 trades of significance this offseason in a somewhat confusing show of... well, decide for yourself.
Let's look at the Pittsburg trade. LA gives up a AAAA arm, and get's back Donald Lee., a player offered up for free by his former owner. Why was he offered up? How about a .686 OPS in Season 6, 3 trips to the DL in as many seasons (51 health), 3 years/$20mm remaining, and a 66 glove for a 2B. It's certainly got some upside, but for a 66 win team that should be cutting payroll and rebuilding, this expensive high risk acquisition is a little puzzling.
Or the Syracuse trade. LA dumps a bad contract (The pitches are a killer) includes a valuable CF for the trouble, and gets back 3 ML guys (2 making the min) none of whom appear to be more than just solid. This would be your standard "we are rebuilding" deal, LA gets out from under Estrella's contract - but in conjunction with the deal above and the deals below, it's a little hard to see where team management sees things going.
Take the Boise trade. LAA trades Keith Bryant, he of the amazing ratings, 30 IP limit and 400k salary, for a 31 year old catcher with a 59 PC and a 5.6mm salary. Add this to a $1 million dollar "acquisition" of 31 year old C Tony Dixon, who makes 1.5mm himself.
And lastly, we welcome 34 year old DH Charlie Stevens to the mix. While very pricey, and old, he does still have a good deal of pop in his bat. And while it didn't cost LA that great a prospect, I can't see why LA would want a 34 year old DH with some $18mm due?
Prediction: Welcome back to 75 win territory
Las Vegas (Season 6: 57-105)
Let the record show that we should probably not accept bosoxx05 back into Gleeman World. And let the record show that new GM eliason kicked things off with a bang, signing three type B's (retaining all his own picks):Lewis Stephens, Eduardo Castillo, Scott Watkins, and a couple other FA's: D.T. Logan, Lawrence Bryne.
Combine the retention of the draft picks with non-harmful contracts and zero trades thus far, and we seem to have the makings of a good new owner. Welcome GM, and good luck!
Prediction: 69 wins, no trades until after the All-Star break (please)
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
NL West preview: Season 7
Anaheim Anteaters (105-57, NL West champion)
The Anteaters missed out on Don Masato, but they still had a very active and impressive offseason. Catchers Josh Wagner and Brian Wilson and pitchers Kevin Lee and Patrick Doster left via free agency and pitcher Jordan Holmes and shortstop Russ Lawson were traded to Tampa Bay.
In return for Holmes (who was very good for Anaheim last year) and Lawson (who wasn't), the Anteaters got all-world hitter and good defensive catcher Richard Maxwell. He can only give Anaheim 350-375 at-bats, but similarly durability-challenged catcher Donatello Paul can take most of the rest and Maxwell will be huge for Anaheim when it really matters: in the playoffs.
Anaheim also traded a couple prospects for pitcher Grover Rowand (who will make an excellent closer) and center fielder Byung-Hyun Yosida (who will allow the aging Fritz Rushford to move to left).
Anaheim dabbled in the free agent market as well, signing pitcher Sammy Manuel to slot in behind a very nice top three of Benny Molina, Kelvin Sullivan and Sal Roosevelt in the rotation and adding Jesus Reynoso to play first base.
Any pitcher in Anaheim's rotation can now turn in an excellent start and, even with corner outfielders Rushford and Alexander Stowers getting older, the only real weak spot in the lineup is shortstop. And the team has great depth, as Paul, Matthew Allen and Preston Grieve are some of the better backups you'll find and Louie Bonilla is a tremendous option as a fifth starter.
Prediction: 110 wins, NL Champions (losing to the AL Champ in the World Series, of course)
Boise Mashers (83-79)
The Mashers are only missing three significant players from last season's team: reliever Omar Benitez, "center fielder" Butch Cintron and catcher Joey Robinson.
Robinson was traded for catcher Will Carter and pitcher Keith Bryant. Bryant can replace much of the production Benitez provided and Carter can be nearly as good as Robinson, if he can stay healthy.
To replace Cintron, who was woefully miscast as a center fielder, Boise signed Tony Cortes, who is also not a true center fielder defensively but at least has more range than Cintron. The Mashers also signed a couple pitchers (Harry Rivas and Kareem Kipling) who are unlikely to be particularly good over the course of a full season.
Boise's best hitter is left fielder Jon Stowers and second baseman Doug Rueter is probably the team's best all-around players. The key to the team, however, may be pitcher Christopher Cook. He had a 3.30 ERA in six ML starts last season. If he can be even close to that good over 35 or more starts this season, that will give Boise a huge boost.
Prediction: 85 wins, wild card
Colorado Springs Silver Stars (56-106)
The Silver Stars got rid of a lot of pitchers from last season, none of whom posted an ERA below 4.00 and only two of whom were below 4.90. Unfortunately, the pitchers they added to replace them (Hades Roa, Benito Carreras, Rex Kirwan and J.C. Carroll) aren't that good either.
There are two reasons to see some improvement for Colorado Springs, however. The first is the trade for Chris Hall, who will replace Ron Black in the lineup and should definitely be an improvement offensively.
The second is the promotion of shortstop Max Walters. He should be solid offensively, and he'll mostly be replacing the at-bats of Billy Ray Benson and Chris McEnroe. More important, however, is his defense. Last season, Patrick Hartman and Juan Lopez combined to play 620 innings at shortstop and they made 26 errors and seven poor plays. With Walters playing shortstop every game, the team's defense should be significantly better.
Prediction: 60 wins
Tacoma Down Pour (51-111)
Tacoma's home park makes the team very difficult to read, but ultimately there's only one player on the big league roster who would start for most teams in the league: Brooks Zaun.
In the offseason, the Down Pour got rid of or lost a bunch of players who aren't very good. They didn't bring in any good position players, but a few of their new pitchers (Dicky Stargell, Dustin Harvey and Larry King could be decent).
A lot of Tacoma's success will depend on whether young players like Gene Tessmer and Gerald Griffiths get better. And a lot will depend on whether Tacoma wants to win as many games as possible or would rather gun for the highest pick possible again.
Prediction: 58 wins
The Anteaters missed out on Don Masato, but they still had a very active and impressive offseason. Catchers Josh Wagner and Brian Wilson and pitchers Kevin Lee and Patrick Doster left via free agency and pitcher Jordan Holmes and shortstop Russ Lawson were traded to Tampa Bay.
In return for Holmes (who was very good for Anaheim last year) and Lawson (who wasn't), the Anteaters got all-world hitter and good defensive catcher Richard Maxwell. He can only give Anaheim 350-375 at-bats, but similarly durability-challenged catcher Donatello Paul can take most of the rest and Maxwell will be huge for Anaheim when it really matters: in the playoffs.
Anaheim also traded a couple prospects for pitcher Grover Rowand (who will make an excellent closer) and center fielder Byung-Hyun Yosida (who will allow the aging Fritz Rushford to move to left).
Anaheim dabbled in the free agent market as well, signing pitcher Sammy Manuel to slot in behind a very nice top three of Benny Molina, Kelvin Sullivan and Sal Roosevelt in the rotation and adding Jesus Reynoso to play first base.
Any pitcher in Anaheim's rotation can now turn in an excellent start and, even with corner outfielders Rushford and Alexander Stowers getting older, the only real weak spot in the lineup is shortstop. And the team has great depth, as Paul, Matthew Allen and Preston Grieve are some of the better backups you'll find and Louie Bonilla is a tremendous option as a fifth starter.
Prediction: 110 wins, NL Champions (losing to the AL Champ in the World Series, of course)
Boise Mashers (83-79)
The Mashers are only missing three significant players from last season's team: reliever Omar Benitez, "center fielder" Butch Cintron and catcher Joey Robinson.
Robinson was traded for catcher Will Carter and pitcher Keith Bryant. Bryant can replace much of the production Benitez provided and Carter can be nearly as good as Robinson, if he can stay healthy.
To replace Cintron, who was woefully miscast as a center fielder, Boise signed Tony Cortes, who is also not a true center fielder defensively but at least has more range than Cintron. The Mashers also signed a couple pitchers (Harry Rivas and Kareem Kipling) who are unlikely to be particularly good over the course of a full season.
Boise's best hitter is left fielder Jon Stowers and second baseman Doug Rueter is probably the team's best all-around players. The key to the team, however, may be pitcher Christopher Cook. He had a 3.30 ERA in six ML starts last season. If he can be even close to that good over 35 or more starts this season, that will give Boise a huge boost.
Prediction: 85 wins, wild card
Colorado Springs Silver Stars (56-106)
The Silver Stars got rid of a lot of pitchers from last season, none of whom posted an ERA below 4.00 and only two of whom were below 4.90. Unfortunately, the pitchers they added to replace them (Hades Roa, Benito Carreras, Rex Kirwan and J.C. Carroll) aren't that good either.
There are two reasons to see some improvement for Colorado Springs, however. The first is the trade for Chris Hall, who will replace Ron Black in the lineup and should definitely be an improvement offensively.
The second is the promotion of shortstop Max Walters. He should be solid offensively, and he'll mostly be replacing the at-bats of Billy Ray Benson and Chris McEnroe. More important, however, is his defense. Last season, Patrick Hartman and Juan Lopez combined to play 620 innings at shortstop and they made 26 errors and seven poor plays. With Walters playing shortstop every game, the team's defense should be significantly better.
Prediction: 60 wins
Tacoma Down Pour (51-111)
Tacoma's home park makes the team very difficult to read, but ultimately there's only one player on the big league roster who would start for most teams in the league: Brooks Zaun.
In the offseason, the Down Pour got rid of or lost a bunch of players who aren't very good. They didn't bring in any good position players, but a few of their new pitchers (Dicky Stargell, Dustin Harvey and Larry King could be decent).
A lot of Tacoma's success will depend on whether young players like Gene Tessmer and Gerald Griffiths get better. And a lot will depend on whether Tacoma wants to win as many games as possible or would rather gun for the highest pick possible again.
Prediction: 58 wins
Real-life San Antonio Sting
This is something I’ve been meaning to do for a while. Using Baseball-Reference’s awesome Play Index, I’ve found the real-life players that I think best represent members of the San Antonio Sting. Obviously not all players have a perfect match, but I tried my best to match players with real players whose career I could see my players mirroring. I didn’t bother doing it for the entire team, but I urge everyone else to do something similar for their team as playing around on Baseball-Reference is always a fun way to kill a few hours. Here goes nothing…
C: Josh Wagner = Mike Napoli
1B: Robinson Perez = Richie Sexson (without the walks)
1B: Nate Lombard = Lee Stevens
2B: Clarence Hampton = John Valentin
3B: Juan Lima = Ron Belliard
SS: Joseph Inouoe = Julio Lugo
LF: Kareem Duckworth = Alfonso Soriano (I know Duckworth had a rough go of things last year in his rookie season. He’s also a switch-hitter and more limited defensively, but I think Duckworth could be similar to Soriano in the batter’s box and on the basepaths.)
CF: Nelson Kieschnick = Dave Roberts
RF: Raul Cerveza = Andre Dawson (Finding a comp for Cerveza is tough because there aren’t many major leaguers that have hit 48 bombs with a .305 OBP. Cerveza certainly won’t ever hit .300 like Dawson did several times throughout his career, but they’re similar low-OBP, high-power right fielders).
DH:Alexander Gibbs = Ben Broussard
SP1: Kevin Riggs = Freddy Garcia
SP2: Louis Quantrill = Steve Trachsel
SP3: Bob Witt = Jeff Suppan
SuA: Jacob Stewart = Mike Jackson
ClA: Pedro Mendoza = Craig Lefferts
C: Josh Wagner = Mike Napoli
1B: Robinson Perez = Richie Sexson (without the walks)
1B: Nate Lombard = Lee Stevens
2B: Clarence Hampton = John Valentin
3B: Juan Lima = Ron Belliard
SS: Joseph Inouoe = Julio Lugo
LF: Kareem Duckworth = Alfonso Soriano (I know Duckworth had a rough go of things last year in his rookie season. He’s also a switch-hitter and more limited defensively, but I think Duckworth could be similar to Soriano in the batter’s box and on the basepaths.)
CF: Nelson Kieschnick = Dave Roberts
RF: Raul Cerveza = Andre Dawson (Finding a comp for Cerveza is tough because there aren’t many major leaguers that have hit 48 bombs with a .305 OBP. Cerveza certainly won’t ever hit .300 like Dawson did several times throughout his career, but they’re similar low-OBP, high-power right fielders).
DH:Alexander Gibbs = Ben Broussard
SP1: Kevin Riggs = Freddy Garcia
SP2: Louis Quantrill = Steve Trachsel
SP3: Bob Witt = Jeff Suppan
SuA: Jacob Stewart = Mike Jackson
ClA: Pedro Mendoza = Craig Lefferts
Monday, May 19, 2008
Power Rankings: Preseason Edition, Season 7
Note: There won't be any team comments this time around, since we already have division previews that cover every team. I also don't really have the time for it this week, either. They'll be back next week.
1. New York Metropolitans
2. Minnesota Fatboys
3. New York Yankees
4. Anaheim Anteaters
5. Milwaukee Twindyans
6. Boston Red Sox
7. Albuquerque Isotopes
8. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
9. Nashville Twang
10. Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims
11. St. Louis Greys
12. Buffalo Europeans
13. Iowa City Comics
14. Florida Cottonmouths
15. Sioux Falls Gunslingers
16. Philadelphia Phenomenauts
17. Boise Mashers
18. Cheyenne Tackleberries
19. Madison Mifflin Street Boys
20. San Antonio Sting
21. Monterrey Conquistadores
22. Richmond Roustabouts
23. Vancouver Vigilantes
24. Los Angeles Hangars
25. Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
26. Chicago Jayhawks
27. Las Vegas Armijos
28. Washington Bureaucrats
29. Oklahoma City Twins
30. Montreal Grand Orange
31. Colorado Springs Silver Stars
32. Tacoma Downpour
1. New York Metropolitans
2. Minnesota Fatboys
3. New York Yankees
4. Anaheim Anteaters
5. Milwaukee Twindyans
6. Boston Red Sox
7. Albuquerque Isotopes
8. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
9. Nashville Twang
10. Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims
11. St. Louis Greys
12. Buffalo Europeans
13. Iowa City Comics
14. Florida Cottonmouths
15. Sioux Falls Gunslingers
16. Philadelphia Phenomenauts
17. Boise Mashers
18. Cheyenne Tackleberries
19. Madison Mifflin Street Boys
20. San Antonio Sting
21. Monterrey Conquistadores
22. Richmond Roustabouts
23. Vancouver Vigilantes
24. Los Angeles Hangars
25. Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
26. Chicago Jayhawks
27. Las Vegas Armijos
28. Washington Bureaucrats
29. Oklahoma City Twins
30. Montreal Grand Orange
31. Colorado Springs Silver Stars
32. Tacoma Downpour
Sunday, May 18, 2008
AL East Preview: Season 7
New York Metropolitans (Season 6: 117-45, AL East Champs, Gleeman World Champs)
Even after coming up short in the Masato sweepstakes, the Mets have one of the most dangerous rotations in baseball. Red Wainhouse is coming off of his 3rd Cy Young Award, and still one of the best in the game, and both Gary Long and Gerald Tomlinson are excellent and durable. Depth in the rotation is a serious concern, however; Zeus Valentine, for all his virtues, is nowhere in the class of the three pitchers above, and Gary Wood sports a career ERA just under 5. There's no one else on their 25-man roster that is capable of starting, and their AAA arms aren't very good. As it is, though, their starters are very durable, enough so that they could easily run a four-man rotation (should one starter go down), and none of their starters are what you would consider fragile. Adding reliever Sherm Washington and LF Vance Phillips should easily offset the loss of 3B John Hardy. The rest of the team is largely intact; while Wainhouse can't be expected to match last year's performance, the Mets still look like the class of the AL. Only a disastrous run of injuries to the rotation could prevent the Mets from taking their 7th consecutive divisional crown.
Prediction: 110 wins, AL East Champs
Boston Red Sox (Season 6: 88-74, Wildcard)
Easily the most improved team in Gleeman World, all because of two names: Don Masato and Bryan Beckett. Masato, still just 31, is widely considered to be one of the best (if not the best) starters in Gleeman World. Combined with incumbents Miguel Torres, Charles Brow, and Brad Jefferson, the rotation goes from a weakness to (dare I say it?) a strength. Beckett, meanwhile, is coming off of a 2nd MVP season. His track record includes a 1.000 career OPS, 6 Gold Gloves as a CF, and 5 All-Star game appearances (amazingly, he didn't make the team in Season 1, despite winning the MVP). He's lost a step to age in CF, but is still one of the best flycatchers around, and his bat should be a massive improvement over Byung-Hyun Yosida's. The absence of Nash McCartin leaves a gaping hole in LF that has yet to be filled; that's currently the team's only major question mark. The team is clearly much better than last year, but winning the division itself still looks like a pipe dream. However, adding Masato and Beckett should make this team a legitimate threat to the rest of the AL in the postseason.
Prediction: 98 wins, Wildcard berth
Philadelphia Phenomenauts (Season 6: 80-82)
The Phenomenauts enjoyed their best season last year, 1 win away from breaking the elusive .500 mark. They've had a good offseason, signing FA Rickey Dixon to play 1B, moving Lee Roundtree to LF and Terry O'Connor to the bench. Phillip Bergman is an adequate replacement for the departed Troy Stern, and Jorel Shaw is still good enough to provide value as a long reliever or #5 starter. The problem, however, is that the rest of the division is just too good; the Mets have historically been the best organization in the world, and the Red Sox just moved all-in. Unless they can post a better record than every other non-division winner in the AL, they won't make the playoffs, and that looks like a tall order for this team.
Prediction: 82-80, at least 6 or 7 games out of the final playoff spot
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs (Season 6: 66-96)
There are always a few teams every season that are clearly not good enough to contend, even on Opening Day. Unfortunately, the Pug Dogs are one of them. The team they'll march out there is largely unchanged from last season. The biggest addition to the team is 23 year old INF Bobby Hurst, one of the prizes of the Bernard Rhodes trade. He'll contribute right away. The other prize, SP Rico Silva, is a safe bet to improve on last year's ghastly 6.16 ERA. That's not enough to change this team's fate, however; they're headed for another season in the cellar. Season 4's 92 win team looks like a distant memory.
Prediction: 65-97, last place in the division
Even after coming up short in the Masato sweepstakes, the Mets have one of the most dangerous rotations in baseball. Red Wainhouse is coming off of his 3rd Cy Young Award, and still one of the best in the game, and both Gary Long and Gerald Tomlinson are excellent and durable. Depth in the rotation is a serious concern, however; Zeus Valentine, for all his virtues, is nowhere in the class of the three pitchers above, and Gary Wood sports a career ERA just under 5. There's no one else on their 25-man roster that is capable of starting, and their AAA arms aren't very good. As it is, though, their starters are very durable, enough so that they could easily run a four-man rotation (should one starter go down), and none of their starters are what you would consider fragile. Adding reliever Sherm Washington and LF Vance Phillips should easily offset the loss of 3B John Hardy. The rest of the team is largely intact; while Wainhouse can't be expected to match last year's performance, the Mets still look like the class of the AL. Only a disastrous run of injuries to the rotation could prevent the Mets from taking their 7th consecutive divisional crown.
Prediction: 110 wins, AL East Champs
Boston Red Sox (Season 6: 88-74, Wildcard)
Easily the most improved team in Gleeman World, all because of two names: Don Masato and Bryan Beckett. Masato, still just 31, is widely considered to be one of the best (if not the best) starters in Gleeman World. Combined with incumbents Miguel Torres, Charles Brow, and Brad Jefferson, the rotation goes from a weakness to (dare I say it?) a strength. Beckett, meanwhile, is coming off of a 2nd MVP season. His track record includes a 1.000 career OPS, 6 Gold Gloves as a CF, and 5 All-Star game appearances (amazingly, he didn't make the team in Season 1, despite winning the MVP). He's lost a step to age in CF, but is still one of the best flycatchers around, and his bat should be a massive improvement over Byung-Hyun Yosida's. The absence of Nash McCartin leaves a gaping hole in LF that has yet to be filled; that's currently the team's only major question mark. The team is clearly much better than last year, but winning the division itself still looks like a pipe dream. However, adding Masato and Beckett should make this team a legitimate threat to the rest of the AL in the postseason.
Prediction: 98 wins, Wildcard berth
Philadelphia Phenomenauts (Season 6: 80-82)
The Phenomenauts enjoyed their best season last year, 1 win away from breaking the elusive .500 mark. They've had a good offseason, signing FA Rickey Dixon to play 1B, moving Lee Roundtree to LF and Terry O'Connor to the bench. Phillip Bergman is an adequate replacement for the departed Troy Stern, and Jorel Shaw is still good enough to provide value as a long reliever or #5 starter. The problem, however, is that the rest of the division is just too good; the Mets have historically been the best organization in the world, and the Red Sox just moved all-in. Unless they can post a better record than every other non-division winner in the AL, they won't make the playoffs, and that looks like a tall order for this team.
Prediction: 82-80, at least 6 or 7 games out of the final playoff spot
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs (Season 6: 66-96)
There are always a few teams every season that are clearly not good enough to contend, even on Opening Day. Unfortunately, the Pug Dogs are one of them. The team they'll march out there is largely unchanged from last season. The biggest addition to the team is 23 year old INF Bobby Hurst, one of the prizes of the Bernard Rhodes trade. He'll contribute right away. The other prize, SP Rico Silva, is a safe bet to improve on last year's ghastly 6.16 ERA. That's not enough to change this team's fate, however; they're headed for another season in the cellar. Season 4's 92 win team looks like a distant memory.
Prediction: 65-97, last place in the division
Friday, May 16, 2008
NL South preview: Season 7
St. Louis Greys (89-73, NL South champs)
Just two seasons after bottoming out with a 72-90 season, the Greys made it back to the playoffs for the second time in season 6. But if they're going to keep improving, it's not going to be because of anything they did this offseason. St. Louis didn't exactly lose any stellar players (John Cho is the only regular from last season who's gone and he posted a .740 OPS at first base), but they didn't add much either.
They traded for starting pitcher Howie Dalesandro, who isn't good, and they promoted starting pitcher Willis Smith, who is going to miss the first 39 days of the season. It looks like they'll try to use Albert James and/or Gregory Clark, maybe in a platoon, to replace Cho and they should be able to at least match his production from last season.
But St. Louis' biggest problem may be that starting pitchers John Carroll, Pedro Montero and Roy Gold all turned in the best season of their career last season, and that's unlikely to happen again.
The biggest hope St. Louis has for being better this season is Vladimir Pichardo. The former No. 1 overall pick had an OK rookie season, hitting .257/.307/.464. If he turns into the All-Star SS he has the potential to be, that would be a big boost for the Greys.
Prediction: 85 wins, NL South title
Iowa City Comics (86-76)
After winning the division three years in a row, the Comics turned in their worst season since going 78-84 in season 1. Unfortunately, just like the Greys, they didn't really do anything in the offseason to get better. They only lost a solid reliever (Bono Porter, who had a 4.02 ERA in 100.2 innings) and two part-time players (LF Charlie Harang and C Vic Alexander, both of whom had an OPS around .800 in about 300 at-bats) and all three of them were either released or had their options declined.
However, the didn't add much either. They promoted defensive specialist C Onan Chen, picked apparent AAAA outfielder Paul Simpson in the Rule 5 draft and welcomed back LF Chris Parnell, who missed almost all of last season with an injury.
The biggest problem is that the only player on the roster who really excites you is 1B Chipper Velandia. Guys like Charlie Ratliff, Norm Hayes (although not last year), Ernest Bynum and Ricardo Rincon are all OK once you take into account that they play in an extreme pitcher's park, but none are great.
And when you take the home park into account while looking at the pitching staff, it's clear the Comics don't have a real No. 1 starter. Dutch Cummings, Harold Darr and Henry Beckwith were all decent last season, but that was largely a function of playing in a pitcher's park in the NL.
Iowa City could easily make the playoffs again, but it's more because of what the Greys didn't do than because of what the Comics did do.
Prediction: 84 wins.
Oklahoma City Twins (78-84)
The Twins were having a solid season, well on their way to a sixth consecutive winning season, when they made the controversial decision to blow things up and rebuild. Rather than try to hang on for a playoff spot, Oklahoma City traded away Max Leary, Brad Jefferson, Billy Stovall, Max Pascual, Keith Bryant, Phil Jefferies, Lance Lara, Bill Moore, Nate McMillan, Darrell White, P.J. Wilson and Jose Guerrero. This offseason, they got rid of a couple more quality players by trading Benji Fernandez and Tony Hernandez.
Now the Twins have a 25-man roster made up of two vets (a catching duo with a combined 10 major league years), four one-year ML players and 19 players who have yet to accumulate a year of ML experience. And while the Twins added some talented players to their farm system, Herman Grace, Felipe Perez and Geoff Forest are the only particularly exciting players on what may be the roster with the least ML experience in Gleeman World history.
Prediction: 60 wins. At most.
Monterrey Conquistadores (64-98)
Monterrey is the only team in the division that made a real effort to get better in the offseason, and the Conquistadores' streaks of three straight 90-plus loss seasons and four straight last-place finishes could both be at an end.
The biggest move was signing free agent SS Dale Howry, who will be a huge improvement over Esteban Mateo, who was bad both offensively and defensively. Monterrey also signed 3B Larry Womack to replace Louis Cannon and added solid reliever Pat Velarde.
Trading away a solid LF like Chris Hall didn't make a ton of sense, but he may have been playing over his head last season anyway. Jose Nieves and Hootie Medina will likely try to tackle the position this season, although both would be better off as the right-handed part of a platoon.
All in all, though, the Conquistadores definitely upgraded their roster, and they have a couple players in Josh Damon and Mendy Gonzales whose improvements since last season started should make a difference on the field.
Prediction: 75 wins.
Just two seasons after bottoming out with a 72-90 season, the Greys made it back to the playoffs for the second time in season 6. But if they're going to keep improving, it's not going to be because of anything they did this offseason. St. Louis didn't exactly lose any stellar players (John Cho is the only regular from last season who's gone and he posted a .740 OPS at first base), but they didn't add much either.
They traded for starting pitcher Howie Dalesandro, who isn't good, and they promoted starting pitcher Willis Smith, who is going to miss the first 39 days of the season. It looks like they'll try to use Albert James and/or Gregory Clark, maybe in a platoon, to replace Cho and they should be able to at least match his production from last season.
But St. Louis' biggest problem may be that starting pitchers John Carroll, Pedro Montero and Roy Gold all turned in the best season of their career last season, and that's unlikely to happen again.
The biggest hope St. Louis has for being better this season is Vladimir Pichardo. The former No. 1 overall pick had an OK rookie season, hitting .257/.307/.464. If he turns into the All-Star SS he has the potential to be, that would be a big boost for the Greys.
Prediction: 85 wins, NL South title
Iowa City Comics (86-76)
After winning the division three years in a row, the Comics turned in their worst season since going 78-84 in season 1. Unfortunately, just like the Greys, they didn't really do anything in the offseason to get better. They only lost a solid reliever (Bono Porter, who had a 4.02 ERA in 100.2 innings) and two part-time players (LF Charlie Harang and C Vic Alexander, both of whom had an OPS around .800 in about 300 at-bats) and all three of them were either released or had their options declined.
However, the didn't add much either. They promoted defensive specialist C Onan Chen, picked apparent AAAA outfielder Paul Simpson in the Rule 5 draft and welcomed back LF Chris Parnell, who missed almost all of last season with an injury.
The biggest problem is that the only player on the roster who really excites you is 1B Chipper Velandia. Guys like Charlie Ratliff, Norm Hayes (although not last year), Ernest Bynum and Ricardo Rincon are all OK once you take into account that they play in an extreme pitcher's park, but none are great.
And when you take the home park into account while looking at the pitching staff, it's clear the Comics don't have a real No. 1 starter. Dutch Cummings, Harold Darr and Henry Beckwith were all decent last season, but that was largely a function of playing in a pitcher's park in the NL.
Iowa City could easily make the playoffs again, but it's more because of what the Greys didn't do than because of what the Comics did do.
Prediction: 84 wins.
Oklahoma City Twins (78-84)
The Twins were having a solid season, well on their way to a sixth consecutive winning season, when they made the controversial decision to blow things up and rebuild. Rather than try to hang on for a playoff spot, Oklahoma City traded away Max Leary, Brad Jefferson, Billy Stovall, Max Pascual, Keith Bryant, Phil Jefferies, Lance Lara, Bill Moore, Nate McMillan, Darrell White, P.J. Wilson and Jose Guerrero. This offseason, they got rid of a couple more quality players by trading Benji Fernandez and Tony Hernandez.
Now the Twins have a 25-man roster made up of two vets (a catching duo with a combined 10 major league years), four one-year ML players and 19 players who have yet to accumulate a year of ML experience. And while the Twins added some talented players to their farm system, Herman Grace, Felipe Perez and Geoff Forest are the only particularly exciting players on what may be the roster with the least ML experience in Gleeman World history.
Prediction: 60 wins. At most.
Monterrey Conquistadores (64-98)
Monterrey is the only team in the division that made a real effort to get better in the offseason, and the Conquistadores' streaks of three straight 90-plus loss seasons and four straight last-place finishes could both be at an end.
The biggest move was signing free agent SS Dale Howry, who will be a huge improvement over Esteban Mateo, who was bad both offensively and defensively. Monterrey also signed 3B Larry Womack to replace Louis Cannon and added solid reliever Pat Velarde.
Trading away a solid LF like Chris Hall didn't make a ton of sense, but he may have been playing over his head last season anyway. Jose Nieves and Hootie Medina will likely try to tackle the position this season, although both would be better off as the right-handed part of a platoon.
All in all, though, the Conquistadores definitely upgraded their roster, and they have a couple players in Josh Damon and Mendy Gonzales whose improvements since last season started should make a difference on the field.
Prediction: 75 wins.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
NL North Preview: Season 7
Milwaukee Twindyans (104-58, NL North champs)
The Twindyans were second in the NL in runs scored last year thanks to a quartet of .900-plus OPS players: RF Dennis Nelson, LF Hector Santos, CF Pete Skinner and 1B Ted Simpson. Of the four, Santos is the only one older than 26, and he's still got plenty of offense left in him.
The pitching, fourth last season with 656 runs allowed, relies on starting pitchers Vic Alfonzo (probably the best pitcher to never win a Cy Young award) and Timothy Rivers. To help protect their leads, the Twindyans went out and traded for two-time All-Star closer Sergio Reid. Milwaukee also signed Bruce Bennett to replace Bob Witt in the middle of the rotation, which should be an upgrade. The issue for Milwaukee is that Alfonzo and Rivers both had career-best years in season 6 and neither is likely to be quite as good this season, especially since Alfonzo is starting to show his age.
The most important player the Twindyans lost was Dale Howry, a solid defensive shortstop who posted an .830 OPS last season. It appears Milwaukee will replace him with Luis Lopez, who is a downgrade both offensively and defensively, at least this season.
Overall, Milwaukee doesn't appear to be quite as good as it was last season. However, nobody in the division made any significant moves, so the Twindyans should easily win their fifth division title.
Prediction: 100 wins, NL North title
Madison Mifflin Street Boys (80-82)
Before their last season in Kansas City, the former Monarchs went on an offseason spending spree that didn't pay off, at least as far as the record was concerned. The Monarchs did score 819 runs and allow 737 for an expected record of 89-73 that would have left them just three games out of a wild card spot.
This offseason, however, the team moved to Madison, and the Mifflin Street Boys didn't do much to improve their chances. The team let 3B Robin Service and three pitchers leave and only added five Rule 5 draftees who don't look capable of producing at the major league level.
Service wasn't great, but there doesn't seem to be a 3B on the roster who can't match the .734 OPS he put up. And while Madison won't miss Denny Moore or Steven Miller, Dann Henry's 3.83 ERA in 112.2 innings will be tough to replace.
Madison does have some talent, with Dale Rooney and Troy Roberts anchoring the rotation and Bud Jones, Carlos Cordero and Tony Cela highlighting the lineup, but this team appears to have more holes than it did a season ago.
Fortunately for the Mifflin Street Boys, they can be fundamentally worse than they were last season and still win the same amount of games.
Prediction: 80 wins.
Sioux Falls Gunslingers (79-83)
The biggest offseason move in Sioux Falls was the decision to trade Dennis James to Minnesota for Gene Ferguson and Marty Pose, neither of whom appears to have a great big-league future. James isn't really a shortstop defensively, but he did post an .870 OPS last season. It appears the Gunslingers will replace him, at least against righties, with Preston Webb, who is significantly better defensively but might struggle with the bat in the majors.
Sioux Falls also allowed relievers Joe Hernandez, Theodore Ritchie and David Ferrer to leave and signed pitchers Geoff Maxwell and Pascual Ozuna. That exchange of arms shouldn't have a huge impact on the bottom line.
The good news for Sioux Falls is that two important players should bounce back from down seasons. Carlos Carreras posted a .906 OPS in season 5 but slumped to .732 last season. He should recover at least some of that. Two-time All-Star closer Larry Piatt struggled to a 5.54 ERA, but he still has a 3.32 career ERA and should be back below 3.50 this season.
Prediction: 82 wins.
Vancouver Vigilantes (63-99)
The Vigilantes didn't change much during the offseason. Mediocre 1B Wilfredo Mercado is gone and Julius Thomas, despite being well past his prime, should at least be able to match Mercado's .741 OPS when he's able to play.
Vancouver also got rid of bad pitchers Benji Kozlowski and Pasqual Encarnacion. Unfortunately, they didn't add anybody decent to replace them.
The best hope for the Vigilantes is that their best young players (Billy Ray Perry, Clyde Haynes and Joseph Wang) keep getting better. The good news is that, like the former Monarchs, this is a team that had a better run differential than its record indicated.
Prediction: 68 wins.
The Twindyans were second in the NL in runs scored last year thanks to a quartet of .900-plus OPS players: RF Dennis Nelson, LF Hector Santos, CF Pete Skinner and 1B Ted Simpson. Of the four, Santos is the only one older than 26, and he's still got plenty of offense left in him.
The pitching, fourth last season with 656 runs allowed, relies on starting pitchers Vic Alfonzo (probably the best pitcher to never win a Cy Young award) and Timothy Rivers. To help protect their leads, the Twindyans went out and traded for two-time All-Star closer Sergio Reid. Milwaukee also signed Bruce Bennett to replace Bob Witt in the middle of the rotation, which should be an upgrade. The issue for Milwaukee is that Alfonzo and Rivers both had career-best years in season 6 and neither is likely to be quite as good this season, especially since Alfonzo is starting to show his age.
The most important player the Twindyans lost was Dale Howry, a solid defensive shortstop who posted an .830 OPS last season. It appears Milwaukee will replace him with Luis Lopez, who is a downgrade both offensively and defensively, at least this season.
Overall, Milwaukee doesn't appear to be quite as good as it was last season. However, nobody in the division made any significant moves, so the Twindyans should easily win their fifth division title.
Prediction: 100 wins, NL North title
Madison Mifflin Street Boys (80-82)
Before their last season in Kansas City, the former Monarchs went on an offseason spending spree that didn't pay off, at least as far as the record was concerned. The Monarchs did score 819 runs and allow 737 for an expected record of 89-73 that would have left them just three games out of a wild card spot.
This offseason, however, the team moved to Madison, and the Mifflin Street Boys didn't do much to improve their chances. The team let 3B Robin Service and three pitchers leave and only added five Rule 5 draftees who don't look capable of producing at the major league level.
Service wasn't great, but there doesn't seem to be a 3B on the roster who can't match the .734 OPS he put up. And while Madison won't miss Denny Moore or Steven Miller, Dann Henry's 3.83 ERA in 112.2 innings will be tough to replace.
Madison does have some talent, with Dale Rooney and Troy Roberts anchoring the rotation and Bud Jones, Carlos Cordero and Tony Cela highlighting the lineup, but this team appears to have more holes than it did a season ago.
Fortunately for the Mifflin Street Boys, they can be fundamentally worse than they were last season and still win the same amount of games.
Prediction: 80 wins.
Sioux Falls Gunslingers (79-83)
The biggest offseason move in Sioux Falls was the decision to trade Dennis James to Minnesota for Gene Ferguson and Marty Pose, neither of whom appears to have a great big-league future. James isn't really a shortstop defensively, but he did post an .870 OPS last season. It appears the Gunslingers will replace him, at least against righties, with Preston Webb, who is significantly better defensively but might struggle with the bat in the majors.
Sioux Falls also allowed relievers Joe Hernandez, Theodore Ritchie and David Ferrer to leave and signed pitchers Geoff Maxwell and Pascual Ozuna. That exchange of arms shouldn't have a huge impact on the bottom line.
The good news for Sioux Falls is that two important players should bounce back from down seasons. Carlos Carreras posted a .906 OPS in season 5 but slumped to .732 last season. He should recover at least some of that. Two-time All-Star closer Larry Piatt struggled to a 5.54 ERA, but he still has a 3.32 career ERA and should be back below 3.50 this season.
Prediction: 82 wins.
Vancouver Vigilantes (63-99)
The Vigilantes didn't change much during the offseason. Mediocre 1B Wilfredo Mercado is gone and Julius Thomas, despite being well past his prime, should at least be able to match Mercado's .741 OPS when he's able to play.
Vancouver also got rid of bad pitchers Benji Kozlowski and Pasqual Encarnacion. Unfortunately, they didn't add anybody decent to replace them.
The best hope for the Vigilantes is that their best young players (Billy Ray Perry, Clyde Haynes and Joseph Wang) keep getting better. The good news is that, like the former Monarchs, this is a team that had a better run differential than its record indicated.
Prediction: 68 wins.
Monday, May 12, 2008
NL East Preview: Season 7
New York Yankees (Season 6: 108 Wins, NL East Champions)
The class of the NL last season, the Yankees refused to be complacent; rather, they had a surprisingly busy offseason. Besides replacing somewhat effective reliever Paul Pearson with a pair of former Anteaters in Patrick Doster and Kevin Lee, they also dealt for Gold Glove SS Dusty Zoltan and ace reliever Tim Stark. Gone, however, are SP Tommy Liverman, starting SS Daniel Jefferson, and reliever Kordell Bordick. Zoltan should be able to replace Jefferson's modest production at the plate, and his defense will make the best pitching staff in the NL look that much better. Lee and Stark should also do fine in replacing Bordick and Pearson's production. Doster for Liverman is a clear step down, but the Yankees still have four excellent starters; Doster will only be called on to be a #5, which he's overqualified for. The bigger concern in New York is the age of the pitching staff; their 5 starters are 35, 38, 38, 32, and 32 years old, and their two best relievers are 35 and 34 years old. They'll be fine this year, but it's something to watch out for in coming seasons. Barring a catastrophe, this division is theirs.
Prediction: 110 wins, NL East Champions
Chicago Jayhawks (Season 6: 100-62, Wildcard)
Once an elite franchise, the Jayhawks have decided to rebuild from the ground up, trading away Don Masato, Bryan Beckett, Grover Rowand, Sergio Reid, and several others in an attempt to start a youth movement. As a result, they're no longer serious contenders. Still, they possess enough talent to be competitive, at least on the offensive end; two-time All-Star Nash McCartin, OBP machine Stu Butler, and power/patience slugger Mark Sakamoto should all be productive, and the rest of the lineup should at least be serviceable. However, the pitching doesn't even begin to resemble the dominant Jayhawk staffs of the past; nominal ace Jackson Jenkins has yet to see any playing time at the ML level, and the rest of the potential rotation includes two middling prospects (Javy Cedeno, Sean Clarke), a AAA lifer (Johnny Boone), a guy with a 15.09 ERA in just over 11 major league innings, as well as a 5.03 minor league ERA (P.T. Osbourne) and a modestly talented hurler coming off of major elbow surgery (Oswaldo Dotel). Also, with only 8 pitchers on their staff, they've yet to assemble a bullpen. This could be a long season.
Prediction: 68-94, staff ERA > 5
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Season 6: 92-70, Wildcard)
The D-Rays managed to make it all the way to the NLCS despite their lack of pitching past staff ace Miguel Abreu and closer Aaron McGowan. Management has diagnosed and addressed the issue; the question is not only whether it was enough, but whether it was worth it. There's no doubt that the rotation should be better. Adding veterans Seth Adams (despite recent Tommy John surgery) and Jordan Holmes (despite his age) should certainly bring stability to the middle of the rotation, and SS Russ Lawson brings both a steady glove and solid bat (for the position, at least) to the table. Losing Wade Green shouldn't hurt; Bono Hughes should be a capable replacement. However, the loss of star C Richard Maxwell puts a major dent in the lineup. Trading him filled holes at SP and SS (Holmes, Lawson), and brought a positionless near-ready offensive prospect in return (Bob Crawford); additionally, Olmedo Park, who played Season 6 out of position (in LF), can now move back to his more natural spot behind the plate (although he's still a below average defender). Without Maxwell, though, the lineup goes from excellent to merely good.
Prediction: 94-68, Wildcard
Washington D.C. Bureaucrats (Season 6: 54-108)
The Bureaucrats have been the doormats of the division since the league's inception, when they were known as the Grays. They finished an abysmal 54 games out of 1st place; the Yankees won twice as many games as they did. So to improve the team, the Bureaucrats did...nothing. Nothing at all. Nary a major league FA signing, or a trade involving ML players. Yet they have a legitimate chance of finishing out of the cellar this season. Surprised? Check out their AAA system; players like Gene Parnell, Goose Hayes, Al Iglesias, Benito Belliard, and Jose Machado are all one level away from the majors. Depending on how many of them are called up, they might be able to leap over the Jayhawks. However, Washington management, judging by its inactivity, will probably hold the majority of these guys back at least one more season. Without help, the ML team will improve on last year's record simply because their young players are one year older (and better). But not by much.
Prediction: 58-104 without any early season call-ups; as many as 70 wins if enough of those players see regular time early at the ML level.
The class of the NL last season, the Yankees refused to be complacent; rather, they had a surprisingly busy offseason. Besides replacing somewhat effective reliever Paul Pearson with a pair of former Anteaters in Patrick Doster and Kevin Lee, they also dealt for Gold Glove SS Dusty Zoltan and ace reliever Tim Stark. Gone, however, are SP Tommy Liverman, starting SS Daniel Jefferson, and reliever Kordell Bordick. Zoltan should be able to replace Jefferson's modest production at the plate, and his defense will make the best pitching staff in the NL look that much better. Lee and Stark should also do fine in replacing Bordick and Pearson's production. Doster for Liverman is a clear step down, but the Yankees still have four excellent starters; Doster will only be called on to be a #5, which he's overqualified for. The bigger concern in New York is the age of the pitching staff; their 5 starters are 35, 38, 38, 32, and 32 years old, and their two best relievers are 35 and 34 years old. They'll be fine this year, but it's something to watch out for in coming seasons. Barring a catastrophe, this division is theirs.
Prediction: 110 wins, NL East Champions
Chicago Jayhawks (Season 6: 100-62, Wildcard)
Once an elite franchise, the Jayhawks have decided to rebuild from the ground up, trading away Don Masato, Bryan Beckett, Grover Rowand, Sergio Reid, and several others in an attempt to start a youth movement. As a result, they're no longer serious contenders. Still, they possess enough talent to be competitive, at least on the offensive end; two-time All-Star Nash McCartin, OBP machine Stu Butler, and power/patience slugger Mark Sakamoto should all be productive, and the rest of the lineup should at least be serviceable. However, the pitching doesn't even begin to resemble the dominant Jayhawk staffs of the past; nominal ace Jackson Jenkins has yet to see any playing time at the ML level, and the rest of the potential rotation includes two middling prospects (Javy Cedeno, Sean Clarke), a AAA lifer (Johnny Boone), a guy with a 15.09 ERA in just over 11 major league innings, as well as a 5.03 minor league ERA (P.T. Osbourne) and a modestly talented hurler coming off of major elbow surgery (Oswaldo Dotel). Also, with only 8 pitchers on their staff, they've yet to assemble a bullpen. This could be a long season.
Prediction: 68-94, staff ERA > 5
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Season 6: 92-70, Wildcard)
The D-Rays managed to make it all the way to the NLCS despite their lack of pitching past staff ace Miguel Abreu and closer Aaron McGowan. Management has diagnosed and addressed the issue; the question is not only whether it was enough, but whether it was worth it. There's no doubt that the rotation should be better. Adding veterans Seth Adams (despite recent Tommy John surgery) and Jordan Holmes (despite his age) should certainly bring stability to the middle of the rotation, and SS Russ Lawson brings both a steady glove and solid bat (for the position, at least) to the table. Losing Wade Green shouldn't hurt; Bono Hughes should be a capable replacement. However, the loss of star C Richard Maxwell puts a major dent in the lineup. Trading him filled holes at SP and SS (Holmes, Lawson), and brought a positionless near-ready offensive prospect in return (Bob Crawford); additionally, Olmedo Park, who played Season 6 out of position (in LF), can now move back to his more natural spot behind the plate (although he's still a below average defender). Without Maxwell, though, the lineup goes from excellent to merely good.
Prediction: 94-68, Wildcard
Washington D.C. Bureaucrats (Season 6: 54-108)
The Bureaucrats have been the doormats of the division since the league's inception, when they were known as the Grays. They finished an abysmal 54 games out of 1st place; the Yankees won twice as many games as they did. So to improve the team, the Bureaucrats did...nothing. Nothing at all. Nary a major league FA signing, or a trade involving ML players. Yet they have a legitimate chance of finishing out of the cellar this season. Surprised? Check out their AAA system; players like Gene Parnell, Goose Hayes, Al Iglesias, Benito Belliard, and Jose Machado are all one level away from the majors. Depending on how many of them are called up, they might be able to leap over the Jayhawks. However, Washington management, judging by its inactivity, will probably hold the majority of these guys back at least one more season. Without help, the ML team will improve on last year's record simply because their young players are one year older (and better). But not by much.
Prediction: 58-104 without any early season call-ups; as many as 70 wins if enough of those players see regular time early at the ML level.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
AL North Preview : Season 7
Minnesota (Season 6: 111-51, Al North Champions)
20 million dollars. That is the overarching number on this year's Fatboys, who finally broke down and set their player payroll budget northward of $90 million dollars for the first time in their history. But leave it one of the shrewdest GM's in the land to recoupe all that and then some through a series of very good offseason moves, which so far has included zero FA signings of any significance, and has allowed them to transfer that payroll figure back down to $83 million.
So how will they fare in season 7? Players of significance who left the 111 win team this offseason are CF Nigel Whang (Left via FA), SP Sammy Manuel (Left via FA) and 3B Bono Hughes (Traded to Tampa). Coming in as replacements are CF Del Garcia (Traded from Nashville) and 3B Dennis James (Traded from Sioux Falls). I'd call the exchange of Whang & Hughes for Garcia & James a fairly even one once you factor everything in. And to replace Sammy, it is likely that the Fatboys will stay in house, moving Joey Ward into the rotation from the bullpen, as well as bringing up youngster Lance Lara to round out the innings delta.
Although it is true that SP's Ruben Crespo and Max Leary are turning grey around the ears, there is nothing to suggest that the Fatboys won't be as good as they were last year, but equally little to suggest that they will be significantly better. Realistically speaking, with a team this good, only the very best players in the world like Don Masato or Bryan Beckett could have improved them with any level of significance, and another 110 win season will still be one of the crown jewels of the AL.
Prediction: 110 wins, AL North Champions
Buffalo (Season 6: 88-74, Wild Card)
Season 6 was again slightly enigmatic for the Europeans, but at the same time largely successful due to the franchise's first-ever post-season appearance, the result of a 2nd place finish in the very competitive AL North. That measure is not to be understated, since it means GM nealphd reached his likely goal f0r season 6, but it's also reasonable to expect that management hoped for more than a .007 increase in expected win % (representing 1.1 extra wins) given such a young and growing team and the increase of 7 million in the player payroll figure.
None of which is to take away from the Europeans 4th straight increase in win totals, nor from their bright future. TINSTAAPP Vinny Wang could start for the big club today (but shouldn't) and we'll soon get a look at prospects like Orber Benitez, Cookie Tatis and Tuck Stein.
But it's also doubtful that those players will help them in Season 7. There is one small sign that the Europeans are in it to compete this year, as they traded away a 20 year old SS prospect for 26 year old LF Benji Fernandez. But unfortunately that's all they've done, no FA's signings and no other trades to help the big league club. Given the aggressive commitments made by other GM's elsewhere in the AL, I am left to conclude that the Europeans are in for a slight drop in wins, and a close but not close enough run at the playoffs.
Prediction: 83 wins, no playoffs
Syracuse (Season 6: 73-89)
If you wish to execute the "Stop Fucking around Plan", just do the following: Trade for SP Tommy Liverman, SP Erubiel Sanchez, SP Fernando Estalella, CF Karim Guerrero & SS Daniel Jefferson, then sign Free Agent's like CF Nigel Whang, RP Pete Hernandez, RP Paul Pearson & P J.D. Hardtke. That's really all there is to it, $40 million in payroll and you too could do the same!
All kidding aside, season 6 went about as bad as one could have expected for this team. Radical action is certainly a viable option when faced with everything going wrong, and due to GM jmilesky's frugal spending ways (through season 6) the team was in position to do exactly what it did - break open the purse strings and become a big-time player.
Will it work? It's hard for me to believe that this team can outperform Minn, NY & Boston in the regular season despite the extensive face lift, leaving one wild card spot for the likes of Florida/Nashville, Albuquerque/Cheyenne, Buffalo and Philly. Standard variance will certainly play a role, but if I had to pick 'em I'd give Syracuse the best odds right now because they've shown the greatest commitment of the teams listed this off-season to making it work this year.
Prediction: 89 wins, wild card spot
Montreal (Season 6: 61-110)
20 less wins made for a very disappointing Season 6 in Montreal, and it seems they are taking a dip down into the bottom of the draft for the next year or two before trying to become competitive. Off-season acquisitions Brian Wilson, Clayton Thomas and Jose Morales do little more than plug holes cheaply.
Prediction: 55 wins, worst record in the AL
20 million dollars. That is the overarching number on this year's Fatboys, who finally broke down and set their player payroll budget northward of $90 million dollars for the first time in their history. But leave it one of the shrewdest GM's in the land to recoupe all that and then some through a series of very good offseason moves, which so far has included zero FA signings of any significance, and has allowed them to transfer that payroll figure back down to $83 million.So how will they fare in season 7? Players of significance who left the 111 win team this offseason are CF Nigel Whang (Left via FA), SP Sammy Manuel (Left via FA) and 3B Bono Hughes (Traded to Tampa). Coming in as replacements are CF Del Garcia (Traded from Nashville) and 3B Dennis James (Traded from Sioux Falls). I'd call the exchange of Whang & Hughes for Garcia & James a fairly even one once you factor everything in. And to replace Sammy, it is likely that the Fatboys will stay in house, moving Joey Ward into the rotation from the bullpen, as well as bringing up youngster Lance Lara to round out the innings delta.
Although it is true that SP's Ruben Crespo and Max Leary are turning grey around the ears, there is nothing to suggest that the Fatboys won't be as good as they were last year, but equally little to suggest that they will be significantly better. Realistically speaking, with a team this good, only the very best players in the world like Don Masato or Bryan Beckett could have improved them with any level of significance, and another 110 win season will still be one of the crown jewels of the AL.
Prediction: 110 wins, AL North Champions
Buffalo (Season 6: 88-74, Wild Card)
Season 6 was again slightly enigmatic for the Europeans, but at the same time largely successful due to the franchise's first-ever post-season appearance, the result of a 2nd place finish in the very competitive AL North. That measure is not to be understated, since it means GM nealphd reached his likely goal f0r season 6, but it's also reasonable to expect that management hoped for more than a .007 increase in expected win % (representing 1.1 extra wins) given such a young and growing team and the increase of 7 million in the player payroll figure.None of which is to take away from the Europeans 4th straight increase in win totals, nor from their bright future. TINSTAAPP Vinny Wang could start for the big club today (but shouldn't) and we'll soon get a look at prospects like Orber Benitez, Cookie Tatis and Tuck Stein.
But it's also doubtful that those players will help them in Season 7. There is one small sign that the Europeans are in it to compete this year, as they traded away a 20 year old SS prospect for 26 year old LF Benji Fernandez. But unfortunately that's all they've done, no FA's signings and no other trades to help the big league club. Given the aggressive commitments made by other GM's elsewhere in the AL, I am left to conclude that the Europeans are in for a slight drop in wins, and a close but not close enough run at the playoffs.
Prediction: 83 wins, no playoffs
Syracuse (Season 6: 73-89)
If you wish to execute the "Stop Fucking around Plan", just do the following: Trade for SP Tommy Liverman, SP Erubiel Sanchez, SP Fernando Estalella, CF Karim Guerrero & SS Daniel Jefferson, then sign Free Agent's like CF Nigel Whang, RP Pete Hernandez, RP Paul Pearson & P J.D. Hardtke. That's really all there is to it, $40 million in payroll and you too could do the same!All kidding aside, season 6 went about as bad as one could have expected for this team. Radical action is certainly a viable option when faced with everything going wrong, and due to GM jmilesky's frugal spending ways (through season 6) the team was in position to do exactly what it did - break open the purse strings and become a big-time player.
Will it work? It's hard for me to believe that this team can outperform Minn, NY & Boston in the regular season despite the extensive face lift, leaving one wild card spot for the likes of Florida/Nashville, Albuquerque/Cheyenne, Buffalo and Philly. Standard variance will certainly play a role, but if I had to pick 'em I'd give Syracuse the best odds right now because they've shown the greatest commitment of the teams listed this off-season to making it work this year.
Prediction: 89 wins, wild card spot
Montreal (Season 6: 61-110)
20 less wins made for a very disappointing Season 6 in Montreal, and it seems they are taking a dip down into the bottom of the draft for the next year or two before trying to become competitive. Off-season acquisitions Brian Wilson, Clayton Thomas and Jose Morales do little more than plug holes cheaply.Prediction: 55 wins, worst record in the AL
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Predictions: How we fared
As we gear up for another season - this time with previews done AFTER spring training! - I figured I'd take a brief walk done memory lane to see how our AL prognosticators fared. Did we outdo Phil the "prognosticator of prognosticators"? Did we outdo the shwam? Were we as bad as Bill Simmons? Were we as good as Bill Simmons' wife? See below:
Prognosticator: sickchangeup
AL West
Santa Cruz: "Season 6 Prediction: 88 wins, Division Champions"
Reality: 57 wins. Off by 31 games. Worst prediction ever.
Albuquerque: "Season 6 Prediction: 1050+ RS, 950+ RA, 85 wins"
Reality: 97 wins. 1078 RS, 805 RA. The better pitching explains the better win total.
Los Angeles: "Season 6 Prediction: 70 wins, 100+ errors"
Reality: 66 win, no clue how many errors - probably not 100, but close.
Cheyenne: "Season 6 Prediction: 81 wins, Eugene Ramirez among top 5 Cy Young candidates"
Reality: 80 wins, Ramirez went 17-8 with a 3.22 ERA in 248.2 innings. Dead on.
AL West
Minnesota: "105-57, best record in the AL"
Reality: 111 wins, 2nd best record in the AL
Syracuse: "92-70 and a wild card birth"
Reality: 73 wins, they fucked around A LOT
Buffalo: "88-74, missing the playoffs"
Reality: 88 wins was dead on, but they made the playoffs.
Montreal: "76-86"
Reality: 61 wins, off by 15
AL South
Florida: "98 wins, Division Champions"
Reality: 84 wins, missed the playoffs. Not sure what happened there.
Nashville: "78 wins"
Reality: 93 wins, division champions. Huge.
Richmond: "68 wins"
Reality: 64 wins
San Antonio: "50 wins, worst record in the majors"
Reality: 75 wins! The folks in SA took some pride, and proved me wrong!
Prognosticator: benj13blue
AL East
New York: "100 wins, division title."
Reality: 117 wins, division title.
Boston: "94 wins, wild card."
Reality: 88w wins, wild card. Pretty close!
Philadelphia: "77 wins"
Reality: 80 wins. Close again!
Pittsburgh: "60 wins following a midseason fire sale."
Reality: 57 wins. No real fire sale though.
In all, benj definitely proved himself the superior prognosticator, although his natural biases with regards to the Boston-New York rivalry clouded his judgement a little. Even so, a very fine prognostication effort, earning him the title of bill Simmons' wife.
For my part, I was all over the place. Some good like LA, Cheyenne, Buffalo & Richmod. And some absolutely abismally awful, but we won't name those. I think I'm man enough to admit I'm worse that a hedgehog picking randomly, which probably puts me in the worst of company right now...
Which of course, won't stop me from doing it again!
Prognosticator: sickchangeup
AL West
Santa Cruz: "Season 6 Prediction: 88 wins, Division Champions"
Reality: 57 wins. Off by 31 games. Worst prediction ever.
Albuquerque: "Season 6 Prediction: 1050+ RS, 950+ RA, 85 wins"
Reality: 97 wins. 1078 RS, 805 RA. The better pitching explains the better win total.
Los Angeles: "Season 6 Prediction: 70 wins, 100+ errors"
Reality: 66 win, no clue how many errors - probably not 100, but close.
Cheyenne: "Season 6 Prediction: 81 wins, Eugene Ramirez among top 5 Cy Young candidates"
Reality: 80 wins, Ramirez went 17-8 with a 3.22 ERA in 248.2 innings. Dead on.
AL West
Minnesota: "105-57, best record in the AL"
Reality: 111 wins, 2nd best record in the AL
Syracuse: "92-70 and a wild card birth"
Reality: 73 wins, they fucked around A LOT
Buffalo: "88-74, missing the playoffs"
Reality: 88 wins was dead on, but they made the playoffs.
Montreal: "76-86"
Reality: 61 wins, off by 15
AL South
Florida: "98 wins, Division Champions"
Reality: 84 wins, missed the playoffs. Not sure what happened there.
Nashville: "78 wins"
Reality: 93 wins, division champions. Huge.
Richmond: "68 wins"
Reality: 64 wins
San Antonio: "50 wins, worst record in the majors"
Reality: 75 wins! The folks in SA took some pride, and proved me wrong!
Prognosticator: benj13blue
AL East
New York: "100 wins, division title."
Reality: 117 wins, division title.
Boston: "94 wins, wild card."
Reality: 88w wins, wild card. Pretty close!
Philadelphia: "77 wins"
Reality: 80 wins. Close again!
Pittsburgh: "60 wins following a midseason fire sale."
Reality: 57 wins. No real fire sale though.
In all, benj definitely proved himself the superior prognosticator, although his natural biases with regards to the Boston-New York rivalry clouded his judgement a little. Even so, a very fine prognostication effort, earning him the title of bill Simmons' wife.
For my part, I was all over the place. Some good like LA, Cheyenne, Buffalo & Richmod. And some absolutely abismally awful, but we won't name those. I think I'm man enough to admit I'm worse that a hedgehog picking randomly, which probably puts me in the worst of company right now...
Which of course, won't stop me from doing it again!
Monday, May 5, 2008
Blockbuster Alert: Masato, Beckett to Boston
The wait is finally over. In a shocking twist, all-world pitcher Don Masato was shipped off to Boston along with Season 6's NL MVP Bryan Beckett in the largest exchange of talent in world history. To break down the madness, here's a breakdown of the trade:
The Boston Red Sox receive:
Don Masato
Bryan Beckett
Jesse Wohlers
a player to be named later (confirmed by trusted sources to be aging slugger Chili Rogers)
$10,000,000 in salary relief
The Chicago Jayhawks receive:
Bartolo Estrada
Nash McCartin
Byung-Hyun Yosida
Tino Simon
Juan DeSoto
Jim Gonzales
Cozy Bolling
Fred Tatum
Johnny Boone
a player (or players) to be named later
There were initially four teams that one could consider serious candidates for Masato: the Mets, the Fatboys, the Anteaters, and the eventual winners, the Red Sox. The Mets didn't consider themselves serious contenders at first; their intent was primarily just to drive up the price. Mets GM sickchangeup asserts that "from the beginning [he] wasn't interested in being involved for Masato, [but] was far more interested in making sure that people thought [he] was, so whoever got him paid out of their teeth. However, he too became caught up in the Masato sweepstakes; Sick's best offer of rubber-armed starter Gerald Tomlinson and blue-chip prospect Bip Reagan was made with the actual intent of scoring the ace. It was not to be; the deal wasn't nearly enough to challenge the top offers.
Fatboys GM aarongleeman's offer was never disclosed, but sources close to the Jayhawk organization confirmed that their offer was competitive, although ultimately only the third best offer out there. The biggest shocker to Gleeman may have been that both Masato and Beckett were dealt in the same deal, since he "was told that [Jayhawks GM] Thor wasn't interested in dealing both Masato and Beckett together, or else [his] "best offer" certainly would have been a lot different.
And then there were two: the Anteaters and Red Sox. Anaheim's final offer was a doozy, one that featured the young and talented Kelvin Sullivan, along with minor leaguers Stuart Stahl, Jackson Jenkins, Mark Sakamoto, Wilfredo Amaral, and Pedro Cortes. That offer was (at the time) essentially on par to Jayhawks GM thorku as the Red Sox's offer of Desoto, Bolling, Gonzales, Estrada, and Simon. To attempt to extract maximum value, Thor attempted to shop Beckett and Grover Rowand to Boston instead. But GM benj13blue would not have it, insisting on Masato. According to Ben, "[Thor] asked about [Nash] McCartin, which I didn't want to do...but I eventually gave in." The addition of McCartin and Yosida along with the aforementioned package for Masato, Beckett, and PTBNL Rogers was too much for Anaheim to upstage, thus ending the madness.
For the Red Sox, this means that the time to win is now; Ben has already acknowledged that he "no longer care[s] about saving talent for the future." The team is coming off of their 3rd consecutive wildcard berth, finishing 2nd to the Mets in each of the seasons and winning between 86-89 games. The rotation looks to be solid for the first time in team history, with Masato and aging southpaw Miguel Torres leading the way, followed by last year's add-ons Brad Jefferson and Charles Brow, who should be competent as middle-of-the-rotation innings eaters. The offense should be good, but perhaps not quite as good as last season; McCartin and Yosida for Beckett looks like a net loss, and they'll have to wait 30 games until they can acquire Rogers from Chicago. Even so, they've clearly improved, and are certainly a more dangerous team, especially in a short series. But there's clearly a defined window of time that the Sox have to contend during; there's not much help left in the minors, and whatever prospects they have left aren't going to make much of an impact anyways.
As for the Jayhawks, Season 7 will almost certainly mark the first time that Thor will not see the playoffs. Despite this, Thor looks optimistic, even excited, to begin this new chapter in Jayhawk lore:
"I have never missed the playoffs. I have always gone for it. So I think it will be fun to experience the game from another side of it. I am happy I gave myself a good head start to do this. I didn't want to do a half-ass rebuild. Just wanted to blow everything up."
And with one swift move, the Jayhawks have upgraded their farm system from a weakness to a strength. They're not done, either; pitchers Seth Adams, Grover Rowand, and Sergio Reid will be next to go. The once-proud Jayhawks may have to face the ignominy of irrelevance for a couple of seasons, but it'll be interesting to see the state of the division by Season 10; the Yankees are very good but clearly aging, and the Bureaucrats have a glut of young players that are rapidly approaching the majors.
The Boston Red Sox receive:
Don Masato
Bryan Beckett
Jesse Wohlers
a player to be named later (confirmed by trusted sources to be aging slugger Chili Rogers)
$10,000,000 in salary relief
The Chicago Jayhawks receive:
Bartolo Estrada
Nash McCartin
Byung-Hyun Yosida
Tino Simon
Juan DeSoto
Jim Gonzales
Cozy Bolling
Fred Tatum
Johnny Boone
a player (or players) to be named later
There were initially four teams that one could consider serious candidates for Masato: the Mets, the Fatboys, the Anteaters, and the eventual winners, the Red Sox. The Mets didn't consider themselves serious contenders at first; their intent was primarily just to drive up the price. Mets GM sickchangeup asserts that "from the beginning [he] wasn't interested in being involved for Masato, [but] was far more interested in making sure that people thought [he] was, so whoever got him paid out of their teeth. However, he too became caught up in the Masato sweepstakes; Sick's best offer of rubber-armed starter Gerald Tomlinson and blue-chip prospect Bip Reagan was made with the actual intent of scoring the ace. It was not to be; the deal wasn't nearly enough to challenge the top offers.
Fatboys GM aarongleeman's offer was never disclosed, but sources close to the Jayhawk organization confirmed that their offer was competitive, although ultimately only the third best offer out there. The biggest shocker to Gleeman may have been that both Masato and Beckett were dealt in the same deal, since he "was told that [Jayhawks GM] Thor wasn't interested in dealing both Masato and Beckett together, or else [his] "best offer" certainly would have been a lot different.
And then there were two: the Anteaters and Red Sox. Anaheim's final offer was a doozy, one that featured the young and talented Kelvin Sullivan, along with minor leaguers Stuart Stahl, Jackson Jenkins, Mark Sakamoto, Wilfredo Amaral, and Pedro Cortes. That offer was (at the time) essentially on par to Jayhawks GM thorku as the Red Sox's offer of Desoto, Bolling, Gonzales, Estrada, and Simon. To attempt to extract maximum value, Thor attempted to shop Beckett and Grover Rowand to Boston instead. But GM benj13blue would not have it, insisting on Masato. According to Ben, "[Thor] asked about [Nash] McCartin, which I didn't want to do...but I eventually gave in." The addition of McCartin and Yosida along with the aforementioned package for Masato, Beckett, and PTBNL Rogers was too much for Anaheim to upstage, thus ending the madness.
For the Red Sox, this means that the time to win is now; Ben has already acknowledged that he "no longer care[s] about saving talent for the future." The team is coming off of their 3rd consecutive wildcard berth, finishing 2nd to the Mets in each of the seasons and winning between 86-89 games. The rotation looks to be solid for the first time in team history, with Masato and aging southpaw Miguel Torres leading the way, followed by last year's add-ons Brad Jefferson and Charles Brow, who should be competent as middle-of-the-rotation innings eaters. The offense should be good, but perhaps not quite as good as last season; McCartin and Yosida for Beckett looks like a net loss, and they'll have to wait 30 games until they can acquire Rogers from Chicago. Even so, they've clearly improved, and are certainly a more dangerous team, especially in a short series. But there's clearly a defined window of time that the Sox have to contend during; there's not much help left in the minors, and whatever prospects they have left aren't going to make much of an impact anyways.
As for the Jayhawks, Season 7 will almost certainly mark the first time that Thor will not see the playoffs. Despite this, Thor looks optimistic, even excited, to begin this new chapter in Jayhawk lore:
"I have never missed the playoffs. I have always gone for it. So I think it will be fun to experience the game from another side of it. I am happy I gave myself a good head start to do this. I didn't want to do a half-ass rebuild. Just wanted to blow everything up."
And with one swift move, the Jayhawks have upgraded their farm system from a weakness to a strength. They're not done, either; pitchers Seth Adams, Grover Rowand, and Sergio Reid will be next to go. The once-proud Jayhawks may have to face the ignominy of irrelevance for a couple of seasons, but it'll be interesting to see the state of the division by Season 10; the Yankees are very good but clearly aging, and the Bureaucrats have a glut of young players that are rapidly approaching the majors.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Liverman to stay in NY, but not with the Yankees
Tommy Liverman will be staying in the great state of New York. But it won't be with the defending NL champion Yankees. He's moving north, to Syracuse.
In a deal pundits are calling a 'minor blockbuster', the Yankees and Fightin' Boeheims have agreed in principle to a deal that sends Liverman, swingman Kordell Bordick and a minor leaguer to Syracuse, for the season 5 AL Gold Glove shortstop, Dusty Zoltan.
Liverman signed a 3 year extension during the World Series, but his status with the club was tenuous considering the team's payroll.
The status of Yankee SS and occasional CF Daniel Jefferson is not certain. The Yankees have a club option for him that has not yet been renewed, and the rumor is that they are actively shopping him.
In a deal pundits are calling a 'minor blockbuster', the Yankees and Fightin' Boeheims have agreed in principle to a deal that sends Liverman, swingman Kordell Bordick and a minor leaguer to Syracuse, for the season 5 AL Gold Glove shortstop, Dusty Zoltan.
Liverman signed a 3 year extension during the World Series, but his status with the club was tenuous considering the team's payroll.
The status of Yankee SS and occasional CF Daniel Jefferson is not certain. The Yankees have a club option for him that has not yet been renewed, and the rumor is that they are actively shopping him.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Evaluating the State of the Don Masato Derby
A little over a week ago, Gleeman World standout Thor "Beane/Barkley/Malone/Marino/D'Antoni" ku set the league atwitter when he announced that his three best players had been added to the trade block. While Ricky Dixon is a still a silver slugging 1B and reigning MVP Bryan Beckett retains plus range in CF, the prize of the trade block was quickly identified as two time Cy Young winner Don Masato.
As we are now preparing for season 7, I'd like to go over the oft-rumored top 3 contenders for Masato's services in the future.
A quick note about the other contenders: I don't think Anaheim or Nashville have the horses at this point to make a competitive offer. I am assuming that Buffalo won't offer Vinny Wang since I can't see Neal offering the best pitching prospect in the game in exchange for the 31 year old best pitcher in the game who is starting to decline. The Yankees don't know the current and projected ratings of Phil Hughes while we clearly know Wang's ratings. That said, if Neal offers Wang, Buffalo immediately shoots to the top of the contenders.
New York Metropolitans
The reigning world series champs are coming off a 117 win season and boast two of the top ten pitchers in the league. However, they are the second oldest team in the league and the window for contending will only be open for so much longer as the entirety of the budget is geared towards the major league team. This approach has won Sick three world championships so it has clearly been worth the trade off but the trade off still exists.
What Sick has to offer:
SP Gerald Tomlinson- The main trading chip Sick has to offer is the 24 year pitcher old who possesses a 4.15 career ERA through four seasons. Gerald also has the ability to pitch 300+ innings a year. That performance is very impressive even if that total is helped by pitching in front of some of the best defense in Gleeman World and by pitching half of his games in a decided pitchers park. Additionally, from next season on, he will cost over $10 million a year for the next 12 years or so.
2B/CF Bip Regan-The other potential trading chip that the Mets possess is the quick as lighting up-the-middle future stud . Bip should produce an OPS in the .875 range annually with plus-plus defense at either up-the-middle position. He would be a top-3 prospect for almost every organization in the league but is far and away the best prospect in the Mets system and should be up by season 8 or 9.
Outside of RF Von Thomson, none of the other Mets prospects should possess any real trade value and I am making the assumption that Sick is not offering any of his other regulars.
Moff's Take- Given the potential packages other teams can offer, Sick would have to offer both players to be competitive given the fact that Tomlinson will be very expensive next year and his best attribute is durability. However, Sick's best offer can easily be beaten by two other teams if they so choose.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are far and away the team that needs Masato the most. They possess one of the most feared offenses in the league but also one of the most maligned pitching staffs in Gleeman world. The Boston staff produced the 27th worst ERA and the 28th worst WHIP in season 6 and met its annual fate of getting swept in the second round for what seems like the umpteenth time in a row. Boston's team is now just entering their prime for the most part as the major league team is the 10th youngest in the league but something clearly needs to be done if Ben wants to take the next step towards a #1 or #2 seed in the near future.
What Ben has to offer:
C Juan DeSoto- Inarguably one the top 5 position player prospects in the minors who should annually be on the good side of a 1.000 OPS, DeSoto also has defensive value as he can call an above average game. However, his arm for a catcher is decidedly below average and his health rating of 56 certainly merits concern. He is coming off a ridiculously impressive season in AA where he posted an OBP of .500 and should be ready for the majors by the start of season 8.
LR/SP Bartolo Estrada-When Dur/Stm is taken into account, Estrada was the best international player of season 6 in Gleeman world. He has very good control, great splits and a great repetoire of pitches. Though he will probably only be able to produce ~180 innings a year, he will be dominant when he does pitch and should be ready by season 9 or 10.
LR Jim Gonzales-Ben's first round pick from last year, Gonzales should be an above average long reliever due to very good control and vsR rating and three above average pitches. He will not see the majors for the next couple of years.
SP Julian Castro- While I certainly have concerns about his lack of above average pitches and only slightly above average splits, he is coming off his second straight spectacular season in the minors and he'll have the ability to pitch up to 300 innings in the majors. That said he has been old for his age when compared to "top prospects" at each level thus far by about two years. He should be ready by season 9 for the show.
RP Cozy Bolling- A relief pitcher who has the same strengths and weaknesses of Castro.
Moff's Take-DeSoto and Estrada are clearly the two prizes of Ben's system and would have to be offered to beat Sick's offer since Gonzales is very good but I would hesitate to call him a stud. Additionally, he'll have to hope for discretion from the...
Minnesota Fatboys
Coming off a down season in which he was not able to reach the the World Series for the third consecutive year, Aaron does have a need for an ace to complement a steady, if unspectacular, pitching staff. While the Fatboys produced a truly dominant offensive team that posted a whopping team OPS of over .900 in season 6, the pitching staff ranked only 11th in Gleeman world in ERA and his staff only produced three pitchers with an ERA under 4.00; one of whom was Max Leary who came over in the second half of the season. Gleeman's team age is around average in the league so he will certainly be a top contender regardless of his decision for the next 7-10 years.
What Aaron has to offer:
SS Ozzie Hawkins is one of the top 3 SS prospects as he has plus-plus offensive potential to go along with just below average defensive potential. The bulk of Hawkins' potential resides in his contact and power potential and not his splits or batting eye. If E:60 cameras start showing up at Fatboy spring training, that will be the final confirmation that he is the HDB version Miguel Tejada. A .900 OPS on an annual basis is not an unreasonable expectation. His age suggests he could be ready this year but he is currently slated to be in AA.
SS Alberto Bautista is an extremely well balanced SS prospect that is an above average hitter in every facet and whose defense is below average. At his peak, Bautista, like Hawkins, should produce ~15% above his positional average which makes him another elite prospect. Though much of Bautista's value will reside in his increased ability to get on base to compensate for his lesser power when compared to Hawkins.
CF Harry Navarre will be an above average defensive CF that also produces offense at a clip 10% above average compared to his positional peers. He won't hit more than 20 homers a year but he should be a doubles machine once he reaches the big leagues. He will be ready around season 10 to enter the show.
RF Carlos Guzman should be an above average RF but I think his overall rating overstates his ability for the position. RF should be an offensive force and Guzman's 75 power and 59 vsR will limit his potential to be just 10% above positional average despite elite contact, vsL, and batting eye ratings. Nonetheless, he is a very good prospect. He could enter the league by season 8.
RP Einar Gandarilla will be an above average RP but, again, his overall rating suggests he will be an elite RP but a lot of value will reside in durability and not dominance. Gandarilla possesses great control, vsL and pitches, but the just above average vsR rating does limit his upside potential. He should be ready quite soon.
RP Preston Bush is a very similar prospect to Gandarilla with similar strengths and weaknesses except he does have an extra above average pitch which does have value.
RP Preston Armstrong is a very good prospect who, despite control in the 60s, possess great splits and 3 above average pitches.
Moff's Take: Aaron could easily trump any trade offer by offering Thorku three of his top four prospects as he is the only one of the top three contenders that can meet Thor's MSRP of "three true studs." If Aaron offered two of his top three prospects and one of his very good RP prospects, he would be competitive with Ben's best feasible offer. Aaron does have a built in advantage in that his best prospects play positions where Thor has organizational weakness.
Moff's Final Take: If I had to put money on any team to acquire Masato right now, I would have to put it on the Boston Red Sox just ahead of the Fatboys. The Fatboys have a dynasty already and they can continue to be in contention for a #1 or #2 seed for an HBD decade to come even if they do not bring in Masato. However, Ben's team clearly needs to add an elite pitcher or two to take the next step as he has no other above average SP prospects in the upper reaches of his system and his hitters are currently in their peak years. I think Ben is willing to pay what it takes to get Masato and I think he will do so.
As we are now preparing for season 7, I'd like to go over the oft-rumored top 3 contenders for Masato's services in the future.
A quick note about the other contenders: I don't think Anaheim or Nashville have the horses at this point to make a competitive offer. I am assuming that Buffalo won't offer Vinny Wang since I can't see Neal offering the best pitching prospect in the game in exchange for the 31 year old best pitcher in the game who is starting to decline. The Yankees don't know the current and projected ratings of Phil Hughes while we clearly know Wang's ratings. That said, if Neal offers Wang, Buffalo immediately shoots to the top of the contenders.
New York Metropolitans
The reigning world series champs are coming off a 117 win season and boast two of the top ten pitchers in the league. However, they are the second oldest team in the league and the window for contending will only be open for so much longer as the entirety of the budget is geared towards the major league team. This approach has won Sick three world championships so it has clearly been worth the trade off but the trade off still exists.
What Sick has to offer:
SP Gerald Tomlinson- The main trading chip Sick has to offer is the 24 year pitcher old who possesses a 4.15 career ERA through four seasons. Gerald also has the ability to pitch 300+ innings a year. That performance is very impressive even if that total is helped by pitching in front of some of the best defense in Gleeman World and by pitching half of his games in a decided pitchers park. Additionally, from next season on, he will cost over $10 million a year for the next 12 years or so.
2B/CF Bip Regan-The other potential trading chip that the Mets possess is the quick as lighting up-the-middle future stud . Bip should produce an OPS in the .875 range annually with plus-plus defense at either up-the-middle position. He would be a top-3 prospect for almost every organization in the league but is far and away the best prospect in the Mets system and should be up by season 8 or 9.
Outside of RF Von Thomson, none of the other Mets prospects should possess any real trade value and I am making the assumption that Sick is not offering any of his other regulars.
Moff's Take- Given the potential packages other teams can offer, Sick would have to offer both players to be competitive given the fact that Tomlinson will be very expensive next year and his best attribute is durability. However, Sick's best offer can easily be beaten by two other teams if they so choose.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are far and away the team that needs Masato the most. They possess one of the most feared offenses in the league but also one of the most maligned pitching staffs in Gleeman world. The Boston staff produced the 27th worst ERA and the 28th worst WHIP in season 6 and met its annual fate of getting swept in the second round for what seems like the umpteenth time in a row. Boston's team is now just entering their prime for the most part as the major league team is the 10th youngest in the league but something clearly needs to be done if Ben wants to take the next step towards a #1 or #2 seed in the near future.
What Ben has to offer:
C Juan DeSoto- Inarguably one the top 5 position player prospects in the minors who should annually be on the good side of a 1.000 OPS, DeSoto also has defensive value as he can call an above average game. However, his arm for a catcher is decidedly below average and his health rating of 56 certainly merits concern. He is coming off a ridiculously impressive season in AA where he posted an OBP of .500 and should be ready for the majors by the start of season 8.
LR/SP Bartolo Estrada-When Dur/Stm is taken into account, Estrada was the best international player of season 6 in Gleeman world. He has very good control, great splits and a great repetoire of pitches. Though he will probably only be able to produce ~180 innings a year, he will be dominant when he does pitch and should be ready by season 9 or 10.
LR Jim Gonzales-Ben's first round pick from last year, Gonzales should be an above average long reliever due to very good control and vsR rating and three above average pitches. He will not see the majors for the next couple of years.
SP Julian Castro- While I certainly have concerns about his lack of above average pitches and only slightly above average splits, he is coming off his second straight spectacular season in the minors and he'll have the ability to pitch up to 300 innings in the majors. That said he has been old for his age when compared to "top prospects" at each level thus far by about two years. He should be ready by season 9 for the show.
RP Cozy Bolling- A relief pitcher who has the same strengths and weaknesses of Castro.
Moff's Take-DeSoto and Estrada are clearly the two prizes of Ben's system and would have to be offered to beat Sick's offer since Gonzales is very good but I would hesitate to call him a stud. Additionally, he'll have to hope for discretion from the...
Minnesota Fatboys
Coming off a down season in which he was not able to reach the the World Series for the third consecutive year, Aaron does have a need for an ace to complement a steady, if unspectacular, pitching staff. While the Fatboys produced a truly dominant offensive team that posted a whopping team OPS of over .900 in season 6, the pitching staff ranked only 11th in Gleeman world in ERA and his staff only produced three pitchers with an ERA under 4.00; one of whom was Max Leary who came over in the second half of the season. Gleeman's team age is around average in the league so he will certainly be a top contender regardless of his decision for the next 7-10 years.
What Aaron has to offer:
SS Ozzie Hawkins is one of the top 3 SS prospects as he has plus-plus offensive potential to go along with just below average defensive potential. The bulk of Hawkins' potential resides in his contact and power potential and not his splits or batting eye. If E:60 cameras start showing up at Fatboy spring training, that will be the final confirmation that he is the HDB version Miguel Tejada. A .900 OPS on an annual basis is not an unreasonable expectation. His age suggests he could be ready this year but he is currently slated to be in AA.
SS Alberto Bautista is an extremely well balanced SS prospect that is an above average hitter in every facet and whose defense is below average. At his peak, Bautista, like Hawkins, should produce ~15% above his positional average which makes him another elite prospect. Though much of Bautista's value will reside in his increased ability to get on base to compensate for his lesser power when compared to Hawkins.
CF Harry Navarre will be an above average defensive CF that also produces offense at a clip 10% above average compared to his positional peers. He won't hit more than 20 homers a year but he should be a doubles machine once he reaches the big leagues. He will be ready around season 10 to enter the show.
RF Carlos Guzman should be an above average RF but I think his overall rating overstates his ability for the position. RF should be an offensive force and Guzman's 75 power and 59 vsR will limit his potential to be just 10% above positional average despite elite contact, vsL, and batting eye ratings. Nonetheless, he is a very good prospect. He could enter the league by season 8.
RP Einar Gandarilla will be an above average RP but, again, his overall rating suggests he will be an elite RP but a lot of value will reside in durability and not dominance. Gandarilla possesses great control, vsL and pitches, but the just above average vsR rating does limit his upside potential. He should be ready quite soon.
RP Preston Bush is a very similar prospect to Gandarilla with similar strengths and weaknesses except he does have an extra above average pitch which does have value.
RP Preston Armstrong is a very good prospect who, despite control in the 60s, possess great splits and 3 above average pitches.
Moff's Take: Aaron could easily trump any trade offer by offering Thorku three of his top four prospects as he is the only one of the top three contenders that can meet Thor's MSRP of "three true studs." If Aaron offered two of his top three prospects and one of his very good RP prospects, he would be competitive with Ben's best feasible offer. Aaron does have a built in advantage in that his best prospects play positions where Thor has organizational weakness.
Moff's Final Take: If I had to put money on any team to acquire Masato right now, I would have to put it on the Boston Red Sox just ahead of the Fatboys. The Fatboys have a dynasty already and they can continue to be in contention for a #1 or #2 seed for an HBD decade to come even if they do not bring in Masato. However, Ben's team clearly needs to add an elite pitcher or two to take the next step as he has no other above average SP prospects in the upper reaches of his system and his hitters are currently in their peak years. I think Ben is willing to pay what it takes to get Masato and I think he will do so.
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