The wait is finally over. In a shocking twist, all-world pitcher Don Masato was shipped off to Boston along with Season 6's NL MVP Bryan Beckett in the largest exchange of talent in world history. To break down the madness, here's a breakdown of the trade:
The Boston Red Sox receive:
Don Masato
Bryan Beckett
Jesse Wohlers
a player to be named later (confirmed by trusted sources to be aging slugger Chili Rogers)
$10,000,000 in salary relief
The Chicago Jayhawks receive:
Bartolo Estrada
Nash McCartin
Byung-Hyun Yosida
Tino Simon
Juan DeSoto
Jim Gonzales
Cozy Bolling
Fred Tatum
Johnny Boone
a player (or players) to be named later
There were initially four teams that one could consider serious candidates for Masato: the Mets, the Fatboys, the Anteaters, and the eventual winners, the Red Sox. The Mets didn't consider themselves serious contenders at first; their intent was primarily just to drive up the price. Mets GM sickchangeup asserts that "from the beginning [he] wasn't interested in being involved for Masato, [but] was far more interested in making sure that people thought [he] was, so whoever got him paid out of their teeth. However, he too became caught up in the Masato sweepstakes; Sick's best offer of rubber-armed starter Gerald Tomlinson and blue-chip prospect Bip Reagan was made with the actual intent of scoring the ace. It was not to be; the deal wasn't nearly enough to challenge the top offers.
Fatboys GM aarongleeman's offer was never disclosed, but sources close to the Jayhawk organization confirmed that their offer was competitive, although ultimately only the third best offer out there. The biggest shocker to Gleeman may have been that both Masato and Beckett were dealt in the same deal, since he "was told that [Jayhawks GM] Thor wasn't interested in dealing both Masato and Beckett together, or else [his] "best offer" certainly would have been a lot different.
And then there were two: the Anteaters and Red Sox. Anaheim's final offer was a doozy, one that featured the young and talented Kelvin Sullivan, along with minor leaguers Stuart Stahl, Jackson Jenkins, Mark Sakamoto, Wilfredo Amaral, and Pedro Cortes. That offer was (at the time) essentially on par to Jayhawks GM thorku as the Red Sox's offer of Desoto, Bolling, Gonzales, Estrada, and Simon. To attempt to extract maximum value, Thor attempted to shop Beckett and Grover Rowand to Boston instead. But GM benj13blue would not have it, insisting on Masato. According to Ben, "[Thor] asked about [Nash] McCartin, which I didn't want to do...but I eventually gave in." The addition of McCartin and Yosida along with the aforementioned package for Masato, Beckett, and PTBNL Rogers was too much for Anaheim to upstage, thus ending the madness.
For the Red Sox, this means that the time to win is now; Ben has already acknowledged that he "no longer care[s] about saving talent for the future." The team is coming off of their 3rd consecutive wildcard berth, finishing 2nd to the Mets in each of the seasons and winning between 86-89 games. The rotation looks to be solid for the first time in team history, with Masato and aging southpaw Miguel Torres leading the way, followed by last year's add-ons Brad Jefferson and Charles Brow, who should be competent as middle-of-the-rotation innings eaters. The offense should be good, but perhaps not quite as good as last season; McCartin and Yosida for Beckett looks like a net loss, and they'll have to wait 30 games until they can acquire Rogers from Chicago. Even so, they've clearly improved, and are certainly a more dangerous team, especially in a short series. But there's clearly a defined window of time that the Sox have to contend during; there's not much help left in the minors, and whatever prospects they have left aren't going to make much of an impact anyways.
As for the Jayhawks, Season 7 will almost certainly mark the first time that Thor will not see the playoffs. Despite this, Thor looks optimistic, even excited, to begin this new chapter in Jayhawk lore:
"I have never missed the playoffs. I have always gone for it. So I think it will be fun to experience the game from another side of it. I am happy I gave myself a good head start to do this. I didn't want to do a half-ass rebuild. Just wanted to blow everything up."
And with one swift move, the Jayhawks have upgraded their farm system from a weakness to a strength. They're not done, either; pitchers Seth Adams, Grover Rowand, and Sergio Reid will be next to go. The once-proud Jayhawks may have to face the ignominy of irrelevance for a couple of seasons, but it'll be interesting to see the state of the division by Season 10; the Yankees are very good but clearly aging, and the Bureaucrats have a glut of young players that are rapidly approaching the majors.
Showing posts with label Where in the World Will Don Masato Be?. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Where in the World Will Don Masato Be?. Show all posts
Monday, May 5, 2008
Friday, May 2, 2008
Evaluating the State of the Don Masato Derby
A little over a week ago, Gleeman World standout Thor "Beane/Barkley/Malone/Marino/D'Antoni" ku set the league atwitter when he announced that his three best players had been added to the trade block. While Ricky Dixon is a still a silver slugging 1B and reigning MVP Bryan Beckett retains plus range in CF, the prize of the trade block was quickly identified as two time Cy Young winner Don Masato.
As we are now preparing for season 7, I'd like to go over the oft-rumored top 3 contenders for Masato's services in the future.
A quick note about the other contenders: I don't think Anaheim or Nashville have the horses at this point to make a competitive offer. I am assuming that Buffalo won't offer Vinny Wang since I can't see Neal offering the best pitching prospect in the game in exchange for the 31 year old best pitcher in the game who is starting to decline. The Yankees don't know the current and projected ratings of Phil Hughes while we clearly know Wang's ratings. That said, if Neal offers Wang, Buffalo immediately shoots to the top of the contenders.
New York Metropolitans
The reigning world series champs are coming off a 117 win season and boast two of the top ten pitchers in the league. However, they are the second oldest team in the league and the window for contending will only be open for so much longer as the entirety of the budget is geared towards the major league team. This approach has won Sick three world championships so it has clearly been worth the trade off but the trade off still exists.
What Sick has to offer:
SP Gerald Tomlinson- The main trading chip Sick has to offer is the 24 year pitcher old who possesses a 4.15 career ERA through four seasons. Gerald also has the ability to pitch 300+ innings a year. That performance is very impressive even if that total is helped by pitching in front of some of the best defense in Gleeman World and by pitching half of his games in a decided pitchers park. Additionally, from next season on, he will cost over $10 million a year for the next 12 years or so.
2B/CF Bip Regan-The other potential trading chip that the Mets possess is the quick as lighting up-the-middle future stud . Bip should produce an OPS in the .875 range annually with plus-plus defense at either up-the-middle position. He would be a top-3 prospect for almost every organization in the league but is far and away the best prospect in the Mets system and should be up by season 8 or 9.
Outside of RF Von Thomson, none of the other Mets prospects should possess any real trade value and I am making the assumption that Sick is not offering any of his other regulars.
Moff's Take- Given the potential packages other teams can offer, Sick would have to offer both players to be competitive given the fact that Tomlinson will be very expensive next year and his best attribute is durability. However, Sick's best offer can easily be beaten by two other teams if they so choose.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are far and away the team that needs Masato the most. They possess one of the most feared offenses in the league but also one of the most maligned pitching staffs in Gleeman world. The Boston staff produced the 27th worst ERA and the 28th worst WHIP in season 6 and met its annual fate of getting swept in the second round for what seems like the umpteenth time in a row. Boston's team is now just entering their prime for the most part as the major league team is the 10th youngest in the league but something clearly needs to be done if Ben wants to take the next step towards a #1 or #2 seed in the near future.
What Ben has to offer:
C Juan DeSoto- Inarguably one the top 5 position player prospects in the minors who should annually be on the good side of a 1.000 OPS, DeSoto also has defensive value as he can call an above average game. However, his arm for a catcher is decidedly below average and his health rating of 56 certainly merits concern. He is coming off a ridiculously impressive season in AA where he posted an OBP of .500 and should be ready for the majors by the start of season 8.
LR/SP Bartolo Estrada-When Dur/Stm is taken into account, Estrada was the best international player of season 6 in Gleeman world. He has very good control, great splits and a great repetoire of pitches. Though he will probably only be able to produce ~180 innings a year, he will be dominant when he does pitch and should be ready by season 9 or 10.
LR Jim Gonzales-Ben's first round pick from last year, Gonzales should be an above average long reliever due to very good control and vsR rating and three above average pitches. He will not see the majors for the next couple of years.
SP Julian Castro- While I certainly have concerns about his lack of above average pitches and only slightly above average splits, he is coming off his second straight spectacular season in the minors and he'll have the ability to pitch up to 300 innings in the majors. That said he has been old for his age when compared to "top prospects" at each level thus far by about two years. He should be ready by season 9 for the show.
RP Cozy Bolling- A relief pitcher who has the same strengths and weaknesses of Castro.
Moff's Take-DeSoto and Estrada are clearly the two prizes of Ben's system and would have to be offered to beat Sick's offer since Gonzales is very good but I would hesitate to call him a stud. Additionally, he'll have to hope for discretion from the...
Minnesota Fatboys
Coming off a down season in which he was not able to reach the the World Series for the third consecutive year, Aaron does have a need for an ace to complement a steady, if unspectacular, pitching staff. While the Fatboys produced a truly dominant offensive team that posted a whopping team OPS of over .900 in season 6, the pitching staff ranked only 11th in Gleeman world in ERA and his staff only produced three pitchers with an ERA under 4.00; one of whom was Max Leary who came over in the second half of the season. Gleeman's team age is around average in the league so he will certainly be a top contender regardless of his decision for the next 7-10 years.
What Aaron has to offer:
SS Ozzie Hawkins is one of the top 3 SS prospects as he has plus-plus offensive potential to go along with just below average defensive potential. The bulk of Hawkins' potential resides in his contact and power potential and not his splits or batting eye. If E:60 cameras start showing up at Fatboy spring training, that will be the final confirmation that he is the HDB version Miguel Tejada. A .900 OPS on an annual basis is not an unreasonable expectation. His age suggests he could be ready this year but he is currently slated to be in AA.
SS Alberto Bautista is an extremely well balanced SS prospect that is an above average hitter in every facet and whose defense is below average. At his peak, Bautista, like Hawkins, should produce ~15% above his positional average which makes him another elite prospect. Though much of Bautista's value will reside in his increased ability to get on base to compensate for his lesser power when compared to Hawkins.
CF Harry Navarre will be an above average defensive CF that also produces offense at a clip 10% above average compared to his positional peers. He won't hit more than 20 homers a year but he should be a doubles machine once he reaches the big leagues. He will be ready around season 10 to enter the show.
RF Carlos Guzman should be an above average RF but I think his overall rating overstates his ability for the position. RF should be an offensive force and Guzman's 75 power and 59 vsR will limit his potential to be just 10% above positional average despite elite contact, vsL, and batting eye ratings. Nonetheless, he is a very good prospect. He could enter the league by season 8.
RP Einar Gandarilla will be an above average RP but, again, his overall rating suggests he will be an elite RP but a lot of value will reside in durability and not dominance. Gandarilla possesses great control, vsL and pitches, but the just above average vsR rating does limit his upside potential. He should be ready quite soon.
RP Preston Bush is a very similar prospect to Gandarilla with similar strengths and weaknesses except he does have an extra above average pitch which does have value.
RP Preston Armstrong is a very good prospect who, despite control in the 60s, possess great splits and 3 above average pitches.
Moff's Take: Aaron could easily trump any trade offer by offering Thorku three of his top four prospects as he is the only one of the top three contenders that can meet Thor's MSRP of "three true studs." If Aaron offered two of his top three prospects and one of his very good RP prospects, he would be competitive with Ben's best feasible offer. Aaron does have a built in advantage in that his best prospects play positions where Thor has organizational weakness.
Moff's Final Take: If I had to put money on any team to acquire Masato right now, I would have to put it on the Boston Red Sox just ahead of the Fatboys. The Fatboys have a dynasty already and they can continue to be in contention for a #1 or #2 seed for an HBD decade to come even if they do not bring in Masato. However, Ben's team clearly needs to add an elite pitcher or two to take the next step as he has no other above average SP prospects in the upper reaches of his system and his hitters are currently in their peak years. I think Ben is willing to pay what it takes to get Masato and I think he will do so.
As we are now preparing for season 7, I'd like to go over the oft-rumored top 3 contenders for Masato's services in the future.
A quick note about the other contenders: I don't think Anaheim or Nashville have the horses at this point to make a competitive offer. I am assuming that Buffalo won't offer Vinny Wang since I can't see Neal offering the best pitching prospect in the game in exchange for the 31 year old best pitcher in the game who is starting to decline. The Yankees don't know the current and projected ratings of Phil Hughes while we clearly know Wang's ratings. That said, if Neal offers Wang, Buffalo immediately shoots to the top of the contenders.
New York Metropolitans
The reigning world series champs are coming off a 117 win season and boast two of the top ten pitchers in the league. However, they are the second oldest team in the league and the window for contending will only be open for so much longer as the entirety of the budget is geared towards the major league team. This approach has won Sick three world championships so it has clearly been worth the trade off but the trade off still exists.
What Sick has to offer:
SP Gerald Tomlinson- The main trading chip Sick has to offer is the 24 year pitcher old who possesses a 4.15 career ERA through four seasons. Gerald also has the ability to pitch 300+ innings a year. That performance is very impressive even if that total is helped by pitching in front of some of the best defense in Gleeman World and by pitching half of his games in a decided pitchers park. Additionally, from next season on, he will cost over $10 million a year for the next 12 years or so.
2B/CF Bip Regan-The other potential trading chip that the Mets possess is the quick as lighting up-the-middle future stud . Bip should produce an OPS in the .875 range annually with plus-plus defense at either up-the-middle position. He would be a top-3 prospect for almost every organization in the league but is far and away the best prospect in the Mets system and should be up by season 8 or 9.
Outside of RF Von Thomson, none of the other Mets prospects should possess any real trade value and I am making the assumption that Sick is not offering any of his other regulars.
Moff's Take- Given the potential packages other teams can offer, Sick would have to offer both players to be competitive given the fact that Tomlinson will be very expensive next year and his best attribute is durability. However, Sick's best offer can easily be beaten by two other teams if they so choose.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are far and away the team that needs Masato the most. They possess one of the most feared offenses in the league but also one of the most maligned pitching staffs in Gleeman world. The Boston staff produced the 27th worst ERA and the 28th worst WHIP in season 6 and met its annual fate of getting swept in the second round for what seems like the umpteenth time in a row. Boston's team is now just entering their prime for the most part as the major league team is the 10th youngest in the league but something clearly needs to be done if Ben wants to take the next step towards a #1 or #2 seed in the near future.
What Ben has to offer:
C Juan DeSoto- Inarguably one the top 5 position player prospects in the minors who should annually be on the good side of a 1.000 OPS, DeSoto also has defensive value as he can call an above average game. However, his arm for a catcher is decidedly below average and his health rating of 56 certainly merits concern. He is coming off a ridiculously impressive season in AA where he posted an OBP of .500 and should be ready for the majors by the start of season 8.
LR/SP Bartolo Estrada-When Dur/Stm is taken into account, Estrada was the best international player of season 6 in Gleeman world. He has very good control, great splits and a great repetoire of pitches. Though he will probably only be able to produce ~180 innings a year, he will be dominant when he does pitch and should be ready by season 9 or 10.
LR Jim Gonzales-Ben's first round pick from last year, Gonzales should be an above average long reliever due to very good control and vsR rating and three above average pitches. He will not see the majors for the next couple of years.
SP Julian Castro- While I certainly have concerns about his lack of above average pitches and only slightly above average splits, he is coming off his second straight spectacular season in the minors and he'll have the ability to pitch up to 300 innings in the majors. That said he has been old for his age when compared to "top prospects" at each level thus far by about two years. He should be ready by season 9 for the show.
RP Cozy Bolling- A relief pitcher who has the same strengths and weaknesses of Castro.
Moff's Take-DeSoto and Estrada are clearly the two prizes of Ben's system and would have to be offered to beat Sick's offer since Gonzales is very good but I would hesitate to call him a stud. Additionally, he'll have to hope for discretion from the...
Minnesota Fatboys
Coming off a down season in which he was not able to reach the the World Series for the third consecutive year, Aaron does have a need for an ace to complement a steady, if unspectacular, pitching staff. While the Fatboys produced a truly dominant offensive team that posted a whopping team OPS of over .900 in season 6, the pitching staff ranked only 11th in Gleeman world in ERA and his staff only produced three pitchers with an ERA under 4.00; one of whom was Max Leary who came over in the second half of the season. Gleeman's team age is around average in the league so he will certainly be a top contender regardless of his decision for the next 7-10 years.
What Aaron has to offer:
SS Ozzie Hawkins is one of the top 3 SS prospects as he has plus-plus offensive potential to go along with just below average defensive potential. The bulk of Hawkins' potential resides in his contact and power potential and not his splits or batting eye. If E:60 cameras start showing up at Fatboy spring training, that will be the final confirmation that he is the HDB version Miguel Tejada. A .900 OPS on an annual basis is not an unreasonable expectation. His age suggests he could be ready this year but he is currently slated to be in AA.
SS Alberto Bautista is an extremely well balanced SS prospect that is an above average hitter in every facet and whose defense is below average. At his peak, Bautista, like Hawkins, should produce ~15% above his positional average which makes him another elite prospect. Though much of Bautista's value will reside in his increased ability to get on base to compensate for his lesser power when compared to Hawkins.
CF Harry Navarre will be an above average defensive CF that also produces offense at a clip 10% above average compared to his positional peers. He won't hit more than 20 homers a year but he should be a doubles machine once he reaches the big leagues. He will be ready around season 10 to enter the show.
RF Carlos Guzman should be an above average RF but I think his overall rating overstates his ability for the position. RF should be an offensive force and Guzman's 75 power and 59 vsR will limit his potential to be just 10% above positional average despite elite contact, vsL, and batting eye ratings. Nonetheless, he is a very good prospect. He could enter the league by season 8.
RP Einar Gandarilla will be an above average RP but, again, his overall rating suggests he will be an elite RP but a lot of value will reside in durability and not dominance. Gandarilla possesses great control, vsL and pitches, but the just above average vsR rating does limit his upside potential. He should be ready quite soon.
RP Preston Bush is a very similar prospect to Gandarilla with similar strengths and weaknesses except he does have an extra above average pitch which does have value.
RP Preston Armstrong is a very good prospect who, despite control in the 60s, possess great splits and 3 above average pitches.
Moff's Take: Aaron could easily trump any trade offer by offering Thorku three of his top four prospects as he is the only one of the top three contenders that can meet Thor's MSRP of "three true studs." If Aaron offered two of his top three prospects and one of his very good RP prospects, he would be competitive with Ben's best feasible offer. Aaron does have a built in advantage in that his best prospects play positions where Thor has organizational weakness.
Moff's Final Take: If I had to put money on any team to acquire Masato right now, I would have to put it on the Boston Red Sox just ahead of the Fatboys. The Fatboys have a dynasty already and they can continue to be in contention for a #1 or #2 seed for an HBD decade to come even if they do not bring in Masato. However, Ben's team clearly needs to add an elite pitcher or two to take the next step as he has no other above average SP prospects in the upper reaches of his system and his hitters are currently in their peak years. I think Ben is willing to pay what it takes to get Masato and I think he will do so.
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