L.A. Anteaters Seasons 3&4 review/preview

In my first full season (and first offseason) at the helm of the LA Anteaters, the team earned a sixteen game improvement to 64-98, after two consecutive 48-win seasons (1^st season managed by baseballers, I took over the team 10 games into season 2). The ballclub fell one game short of the team’s 65-win goal, but 70-75 wins should be achievable in season 4 to keep the front office intact.

Despite missing my win projection, there were some lucky breaks that fell my way, specifically lucking out on Philip Wolf in the Rule 5 (see his production below) and also getting the #1 pick in a very deep amateur draft. However, since it was my first offseason, I handed out some very questionable contracts to mediocre players. The following is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from LA’s 3^rd season:

The Good

Philip Wolf, Rule 5 384 ABs .286/.362/.474

Virgil Lopez, $5.6M salary paid by the 95’ers, 57.2 IP 3.75 ERA

Cesar Johnson, 1/$2.4, 71.1 IP 3.03 ERA 1.21 WHIP

Moises Martin #1 pick, 23 yrs, 2B, 65/75/70/62/75 with 99 speed

Comments: Wolf was a Rule 5 homerun, Lopez was a solid waiver wire pickup after he was released, and Johnson was a nice free agent signing as his career winds down (he’s 39). Martin will be an absolute stud and will likely be joining the big club in Season 5, or Season 6 if I find the patience.

The Bad

Cristobal Lopez, 2/$5M 228 Abs .298/.351/.377 24/25 SBs

Ivan Seguignol, 3/$14M 175.1IP 4.52 ERA 1.44 WHIP

Comments: Lopez was a nice replacement starter in LF/RF/DH and even a little 1B, but is worth no more than just above the minimum. Sequignol will be hurting me for another couple of seasons, although he does eat innings. Just not worth the money.

The Ugly

Tony Clark, 2/$12M 154IP 6.14 ERA 1.60 WHIP

Comments: This was a huge blunder, but he was coming off of consecutive 4.30 ERA/1.38 WHIP seasons with 175 IP and being in a pitchers park I couldn’t see how he wouldn’t at least replicate those stats. I was willing to spend money to ensure a climb towards 65 wins, but this signing simply looks terrible and he’s not worth nearly $6M/year even if he does return to the “norm”.

Season 4 Transactions

For season 4, I limited my free agent activity to just one ML signing, handing Dean Thornton a 1-year deal for $3.6M. 58 control, 71/73 splits, 95 vel, and 88/90/51 pitches should make him an effective setup man. It was important for me to grab a RH reliever who I can depend on as I’m gradually relying on a younger, inexperienced staff, and I have plenty of LH’s.

In the Rule 5 draft with the 4^th pick I grabbed Daniel Hernandez (71/40/58/59/59), who will start the season at 2B (until Haywood Enders arrives) and thereafter serve as a 3B against LH pitching. Not an ideal platoon candidate, but we’re doing things on the cheap in LA for now. He should get about 250-300 ABs.

I also grabbed Roger Martin with my 2^nd Rule 5 pick, he’s a LH with only 41 control, 73/64 splits, 82 vel, 81/80/70/39 pitches. I’m rightly concerned about his control and I’d be happier if he just dropped his 4^th pitch, but I wanted a LRB (67 Stam) to grab some garbage innings and he should fit that bill.

Pitching Staff

The rotation, still in patchwork mode, will be as follows (Con, L/R, Vel, 1^st/2^nd/3^rd/4^th/5^th):

#1: Ivan Seguinol, LH, 31, (68, 69/53, 27, 89/72/77/59/36). 2 more seasons of this crap

#2: Felipe Machado, RH, 22, (72, 55/71, 38, 78/84/69/56/49) Making his debut

#3: Tony Clark, RH, 30, (83, 58/58, 80, 82/63/59/59/55) Hoping for a rebound season

#4: Chad Butler, LH, 23, (66, 78/61, 38, 76/74/72/57/53) Making his debut

#5: Clark Speaker, LH, 25, (62, 80/58, 90, 75/65/59/37/19) Less than spectacular last year, possibly demotion or bullpen bound. AAAA pitcher, essentially.

The bullpen is less than spectacular but should at least not entirely embarrass itself, and is led by baby-armed Gerald Ward and his 4 stamina rating. RH, 27, (95, 80/92, 30, 93/90). He managed to make 81 appearances in S3, with 35.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP. Could be trade bait to a contender looking for a shutdown guy for one or two batters every other game.

Waiting in the wings for a potential S4 callup is Adam Ducey, RH, 22, (82, 64/64, 42, 86/82/51/77/43), who will be utilized depending on how close the team is to risking the 61-win requirement. He’ll certainly be a full-time starter in S5.

The Offense

The offense is young but progressing – below are the ones who will receive the most action:

Name, Position, Age, (Con, Pow, L/R, Eye, Speed)

Philip Wolf, DH, 24, (77, 95, 66/86, 74, 32) – the Rule 5 dream pickup

Neil Morgan, C, 24, (67, 71, 51/72, 57, 67) – 68 pitch calling, solid starter for years to come

Brad Ramsey, 1B, 32, (74, 64, 65/91, 60, 10) – will be jettisoned after his $4M contract is up

Lou Thurman, 3B, 34, (94, 57, 48/58, 59, 55) – a stopgap at 3B for the 2^nd year in a row

Ross Mills, SS/2B, 27, (79, 46, 52/59, 65, 40) – will split with Hernandez at 2B

Glenn Simmons, LF/1B, 25, (58, 79, 60/57, 70, 66) – a solid young player

Jorge DeSoto, RF, 29, (9, 100, 53/95, 35, 16) – the slugger who set the SO record

Tris Cook, CF, 28, (43, 3, 39/41, 90, 91) High OBP, SB, and Def save his ML career

Oswaldo Tejada, CF, 24, (81, 24, 44/28, 49) Solid Def, will platoon vs L’s

21-game callups:

Haywood Enders, SS, 24, (36, 71, 81/72, 65, 88) (will start at SS, moving Mills over to 2B)

Ruben Cruz, 2B/3B/LF, 24, (61, 44, 71/53, 64, 89) (injury replacement if needed)

Season 4 expectations:

The goal is 70-75 wins, which would put the team safely above the necessary win threshold of 61. With the #4, #36, and #62 picks in the June Amateur draft and plenty of money set aside for what should be a highly competitive International Prospects race, more help is on the way. The key is slow improvement until the stable of young prospects breaks into the majors, most of them landing between Seasons 5 and 7. The long-term goal is playoff contention starting in Season 7.

Top 10 Prospects

Top prospects, highlighted by “Martin & Martin, Inc” (Moises and Darwin). The D. Martin- Jose – Ducey threesome (see #’s 2-4 below) at the top of the LA rotation will give opponents fits in the coming years, and paired with new S4 major leaguers Butler and Machado a formidable 5-man rotation is in the works.

1. Moises Martin, 2B, 23 (see “The Good” above) - S3 #1 overall pick, future all-star, possible MVP if he fully develops. Depending on defensive development he may become a LF. Likely starter at 2B in Season 5.

2. Darwin Martin, LH SP, 20 – S2 #1 overall pick, currently sits at 75 control with 62/56 splits and pitches of 81/74/72/44. I’d like to see his splits get as close to 70 as possible, and with 86 stamina already he’s already able to go long into games. Induces 77% GBs with his nasty sinker. Look for him in Season 6 or 7.

3. Pablo Jose, LH SP, 20 – S1 #1 overall pick, another control pitcher sitting at 78, with splits of 84/81 but not any real dominant pitches (74/65/47/46). Less stamina than Martin but induces an even greater share of groundballs (86%) without even utilizing a sinker. Will likely debut in Season 6.

4. Adam Ducey, RH SP, 22 – Received in a S1 trade from Mexico City (for 3 solid years of Juan Manzanillo), Ducey is essentially the RH version of Darwin Martin, sporting a high stamina of 82 with decent splits (64/64), an 86% groundball rate, and pitches sitting at 86/82/51/77. If S4 gets off to a slow start, he may see action in the bigs but is otherwise being reserved for his first appearance in S5.

5. Haywood Enders, SS, 24 – Received in a S1 trade with Baltimore (for 2 mediocre seasons of Joe Benson), Enders exhibits multiple tools as he hits for power, has an acceptable glove at SS, and 88 speed. He’ll be a 21-game callup in S4 and will immediately replace Mills at SS.

6. Lariel Sosa, RH RP, 20 – S2 Intl Prospect that signed for $18M, the hope is for Sosa to be the go-to Setup man (or Closer) to help bring victories home. He’s a strikeout pitcher with 70 control and 87 velocity, although I’d like his splits to hit the 60’s soon as he’s currently at 54/57. The timing of his arrival will nicely coincide with the SP’s on this list, look for him in Season 6 or 7.

7. Chad Butler, LH SP, 23 – Yet another S1 trade acquisition, coming from Oakland in return for solid 23 year-old ML 1B Jesus Martin (.882 OPS in debut season). Butler has low stamina for a SP at 68 so he may end up in long relief, but he exhibits decent control (66) with 78/61 splits. He could get crushed by righties in his S4 ML debut season, but his 3 solid pitches will hopefully keep hitters guessing and carry him through (76/74/72/57/53).

8. Ivan Chavez, 1B, 21 – An Intl Prospect from S1 that signed for $11.2M, Chavez is the 1B of the future and will likely be the starter to open S5. He hits for contact (64) and power (70) with splits that heavily favor him against RH’s (51/78) and a great batting eye (74). The team will actively search for a platoon partner vs. LH’s in the meantime.

9. David Escobar, CF, 21 – Another S1 Intl Prospect that signed for $11.6M, Escobar is a reliable defender that will earn the full-time CF spot in S5/S6 without having a very dangerous bat (50, 36, 71/56, 82) but should get on-base enough to make himself useful.

10. Felipe Machado, RH SP, 22 – Acquired in a S1 trade with Rochester in a multiplayer deal that also brought in Wallace Watson, in return for 1 disappointing year from Chief Lewis (who was subsequently traded again). Machado is making his ML debut in S4 and will battle it out with Butler to see which rookie SP reigns supreme. He has solid control of 72 with 55/71 splits that are helped by an array of pitches (78/84/69/56/49), inducing 76% groundballs with the help of his 84 sinker. Should be a decent back-end SP.

It has been fun to watch this team grow as I’ve learned from my newb mistakes – I don’t anticipate being very active on the trade market unless someone is looking for a bench bat (Ramsey) or offers me solid value for Gerald Ward. In AAA, Manny Beverlin (LH SP, 24) is available and could be a S5 or LR in the majors; I simply don’t have a need for another lefty. 74 control, 66/61 splits, 87 vel, 78/73/43/49 pitches with 77% groundball rate.

Looking forward to Season 4...may the Intl Prospect signing record fall!

GW2: Trenton Dirty Jerz Season Review

With the season winding down I thought it would be interesting to take a look at my club. Without further ado: The Trenton Dirty Jerz Season 3 Review.

Going into the season I had a couple of goals:
1. Improve from 70 wins in season 2 to closer to 80 wins in season 3.
2. Add 1 Star quality player and 1 Good regular through the draft and International and some supporting players.
3. Keep all my future core players healthy.

Well, the first goal didn’t come to fruition, but I can take some comfort in scoring more runs than I allowed so my team is improving.

I lost 2 of my 5 projected starting pitchers to injuries before they made 10 starts. While Richard Glanville is no world beater he was a useful 5th starter last year and looked like he would be bad to OK this year as well. His injury forced me to go rung deeper on the starting pitcher depth chart, a rung I really wanted to stay away from, but frankly at that point suck is suck.

The starting pitcher injury that really hurt me and caused some chaining impact on my pitching staff was Trenidad Marquez who made 2 starts in AAA before being lost for the season with a labrum tear. This will likely cause him to miss at least spring training next year. He will compete for a rotation spot during season 4, with his effectiveness and sloting largely dependent on how much he bounces back from injury. As I mentioned the loss of Marquez had some chaining implications I used the pitcher I had penciled in as Long A Mike Marte and the pitcher I had penciled in as Long B RJ Stroud into a tandem role for most of the season. Both were rule 5 picks and pitched well and may break camp with the club in season 4, but will have to compete for a spot. Pepe Sierra, another rule 5 pick this year also pitched well as the Dirty Jerz's top setup man.

Bryan Ball one of last year's Rookie of the year finalist had a sophomore slump as his ERA jumped a point and half as he struggled to adjust to a four and a half man rotation. Justin Brooks continued his consistent performance as a reliable starter and Matt Frye had a nice rookie year and will be penciled in for the number 2 or 3 slot in the rotation next year. Weldon Brooks made the club after Glanville's injury and pitched well in a number of roles from starter to closer and will also compete for a spot to make the club out spring training next year. I'm optimistic at being able to improve the pitching staff with internal options next year.

On the offensive side of the ball the team ran in place despite strong rookie years by David Johnson and BC Tucker and surprisingly strong first year by veterans Mike Browne and Michael Baker. Young veterans Chan Dong and Juan Mendoza continued to be excellent and good players receptively. Based on those comments alone you would expect an offense considerably better than last season, however, Pedro Perez fell off a cliff going from silver slugger to 675 OPS while at a less demanding defensive position. Mule Holmes 800+ OPS and 300+ BA dropped to 660 and 250. Alving Gonzalez hit with good power in his debut year but didn’t do much else. Dan Crawford's offense didn't improve as hoped and the tandem of Paul Howington and Gary Johnstone sucked worse than expected at shortstop.

I feel there are some improvements that can be made on the offense next year largely by replacing the sink hole at shortstop, however, it may be tough to get too much better than league average Crawford will need to develop into a solid top of the order on base threat, and Gonzalez will need to get his onbase percentage into an acceptable range.
From a player procurement perspective the season was a big success. I was able to add impact talent through both the draft (historically strong draft) and international (inspite of myself). On the international side I added potential work horse in Louie Hernandez. The Venezuelan is a major league starter now with 70 control, 82/62 splits and 2 league average pitches. The 20 year-old who dominated Hi-A in 100 innings has a lot of growth potential as well with potential strong splits versus both sides and a dominant sinker combined with strong control and the ability to pitch deep into games, on short rest.

With the 6th pick I was able to snag the player I had rated 3rd overall (didn't see a couple players) Richard Blackmon. Blackmon won't be able to stick at SS but depending on how his glove develops he may be able to play CF, 3B, or 2b. Blackmon looks like an elite hitter with excellent power and excellent splits a solid eye and solid contact. He had an excellent year in Low A as an 18 year old. The rest of the draft was largely a bust as my round 2 and 5 pick wouldn't sign and my 3rd and 4th round picks didn’t translate well or develop. I was able to add 3 pitchers through the rule 5 draft who posted solid ERA's, in 350 combined innings.

From an injury perspective the most severe is to Marquez, but considering his ceiling it's not a significant injury to the future of the organization. Thought it cost me a couple of wins last year and will cost me a couple in season 4 and 5. Mike Marte also got injured in the last start of the year, which will have a somewhat minor impact on the team going forward.

Top 15 Prospects:
1. Phillip Holtz: LHP - Drafted in season 2 with the third pick Holtz dominated HiA. He is a major league pitcher now with 72 control, 76/68 splits and 87/67 top 2 pitches, and is developing well with 4-6 points in every major category since spring training looks to be a good bet to get close to his projections: 93 control 89/88 with top pitches of 100 and 81. With 87 health he doesn't have much injury risk associated with him.

2. Louie Hernandez: LHP - Signed as an international in season 3, Hernadez dominated HiA. He is a major league starter now with 70 control, 82/62 splits and first two pitches of 72 and 68 pitches. With only 100 innings as a pro it's tough to gauage his development pace but he looks like a good bet to develop into a number 1 starter who could throw 275 innings, though likely not as dominant as Holtz. 90 Health Rating.

3. Felipe Hernandez: SH, C - An international signed for $20mm out of season 2. Hernadez is an MVP bat whose receiving skills leave much to be desired and may end up at DH depending on how the other catchers in the system develop. Hernadez got solid development this year gaining 4 points across the board and is currently at 70 contact 89 power splits of 88/78 and an eye of 45. That eye is always going to hurt his performance but mid to high 90's power with 80's contract and high 80's splits will go a long way to compensate for the problem. The time table on Hernandez is a little clouded he certainly will spend next year and the first 20 games of season 5 in AAA, however, weather he repeats the full year or comes to the show will be dependent on how the team plays in season 5. Health rating 94.

4. Richard Blackmon: RHH, Inf - Drafted 6th overall in season 3 Blackmon looks like an allstar bat at either 3b, 2b, of CF with great power and great splits. Like most players with no pro-experience he got little progression but lit up Low-A while getting acclimated. Blackmon is sitting at: 72 power, 61/53 splits and 61 control, his bat control is his weak point at only 34. My best guess is he will end up with low 90's power and mid 80's splits and an above average eye. Defensively he projects to be very sure handed with average range for most positions with an arm passable for all positions but SS. 84 health rating.

5.Felix Nomo: LHP - Nomo signed in season 1 as an international with a $26mm bonus has been somewhat of a disappointment. While he has developed and looks like he will debut in game 21 of season 5 he isn't turning into the dominant pitcher I thought I was getting. After 2 full years of development he is sitting at: 77 control, 75/64 splits and 92/76 first two pitches with great velocity and a strong groundball tendency. His pitches, his control and versus LHP is still developing but if his versus RHP doesn’t get a good 3rd year jump he is not going to be the impact player I had hoped for. Health rating 64.

6. Albert Puente: RHP - Acquired 9th overall in the season 1 amateur draft Puente doesn’t have the upside of either Holtz or Hernandez but looks like he will be a high end SP going forward. Puente is further along in his development than either Holtz or Hernandez as he has had more developmental time and is a year older. Puente is a soft-tosser without a dominant outpitch but will have good control and work both sides of the plate. He currently sits at 81 control, 62/68 splits and 74/78 top 2 pitches and developed 4 points in most major categories with his big 3rd year of development ahead hopefully he will get a needed bump in his pitches and will continue to develop his control and splits. 94 Health Rating

7. Dick Hull: RH, SS - Signed by Vancouver as a $13.9mm international in season 1 and was acquired via trade early in season 2. Hull list here at SS and is even money to land somewhere else as his defense even if fully developed is stretched at SS. Hull looks like he will be a top of the order player with a strong eye and very good on base skills. Currently his ratings are 52 contact, 56 power, 72 vs L, 67 vs R, 83 eye. It looks like Hull will be ready for a regular role 20 games into season 5, however, if he can't play SS where he will play is somewhat murky, perhaps playing center or 2b and pushing Dong to left or 1b. Heath rating 82

8. Kevin Matthews: LHP: Drafted in the supplemental round of the season 1 draft. A college closer Matthews has all the stuff to be a great closer in the bigs but struggled at Low and High A before having a solid season in AA this year. Matthews will probably be limited to a traditional 1 inning closer role. Currently, has a control of 76 splits of 67/68 and pitches of 86 and 96. It's likely he will hit mid 80's control mid 70's splits with dominant pitches. Matthews looks to debut in season 5. Health 60.

9. Victor Prieto: LHP: Prieto the one inherited player in the top 10 will challenge for a job in the bullpen next year after a dominant season in AA and slowing development. Prieto will never walk less than 3 per 9 but outside of below average control he is a the total package for an RP. 50 stamina, 28 durability will get him over 100 innings a year splits at 84/82, a fastball 83 and a sinker at 86 his weakness is his 54 control. He probably has a point or two of development left which he may get at the major league level. Health 56.

10. Justin Romero: RH, 1B - Aquired through trade in season 1. Nothing special as a player. More or less fully developed and ready to take a full time role next season as DH. Won't be a world beater but should be a reliable 800 OPS player until a better option is available through the farm or free agency. Currently 70 contact, 60 Power, 79/63 splits, 67 eye. Health 77.

11. Paul Marte: RH, C - An inherited player may be squeezed for a job despite having good hitting skills. This all bat catcher is ready to hit in the bigs now despite only being in HiA this season. Marte is a solid but unspectacular 62 contract, 74 power, 57/62 splits and 80 eye. Defensively his game calling leaves a lot to be desired as does his arm. With better catchers, 1b and DH's sprinkled throughout the system he may be trade bait or a bench bat. Health 78.

12. Migue Cruz: RH, 2b - a second round draft pick is developing nicely and had a strong year in LowA. Cruz's bat is progressing quickly and looks like it will be solid if he can continue to develop. He will never be a star, but can be a regular at 2b or CF. His bat stands at 61 contract, 41 power, 62/53 splits and 62 eye and advancing quickly. With 79/84 range/hands projection he could be a regular for a long time. Health 58.

13. Bryan Cordova: LHP - An inherited player who looks like he will be a solid back of the rotation starter on a short term basis. His development has slowed considerably this year, but he will compete for a job in the big league rotation next spring. He has solid unremarkable control, solid unremarkable pitches and below average control. Contol 62, 60/52 splits and pitches 79/73/50/67. Health 87.

14. Phil Riggs: RHP - Traded for in season 1, another young pitcher whose development has stalled. Solid control and tough on righties with a good outpitch Riggs has some weaknesses in so much that he doesn't throw all that hard, doesn't induce all that many grounders and doesn't have much after his good fastball and league average curve. Currently at 79 control, 51/72 splits with 83/68 first two pitches and not blessed with an arm that is very rubbery. He will compete for a spot on the staff next year. Health 92

15. Albert Martin: RB SS: An inherited player who has the inside track on the starting SS gig next year. He isn't much of a hitter 27 contact, 47 power, 43/37 splits and 46 eye but a solid defender currently at 87/83/88/89. While nothing to write home about an improvement over the current situation and if he can stay healthy next year he may get 600 PA's starting on opening day. Health: 39

Others of Note: Miguel Terreo, Steve Farley, Nicholas McKiney, Denis Thornton, Kordell Kirby, Harry Cora, Luis Martin, Brent Ransom, Tori Thomas, Trenidad Marquez, Juan Deleon, Nigel File, Mark Duncan, Eli Segui

Projected Season 4 Roster

1. C: Juan Mendoza (season 3)
2. 1b: Mike Browne (season 3)
3. 2b: Chan Dong (season 3)
4. 3b: BC Tucker (season 3)
5. SS: Albert Martin (AAA)
6. LF: Alving Gonzalez/Luis Martin platoon (season 3)
7. CF: Dan Crawford (season 3)
8. RF: David Johnson (season 3)
9. DH: Justin Romero (AAA)
10. C: Michael Baker (season 3)
11. Util: Pedro Perez or FA upgrade (season 3)
12. SS/CF: Gary Johnstone (season 3)
13. Platoon Gonzalez/Martin (AAA)
14. Free Agent
15: SP1 Justin Brooks (season 3)
16: SP2 Bryan Ball (season 3)
17: SP3 Matt Frye (season 3)
18: SP4 Marquez/Cordova/Riggs (DL/AAA/AA)
19: SP5 Marquez/Cordova/Riggs (DL/AAA/AA)
20: Long A: Prieto/Mike Marte /Riggs (AA/season 3)
21: Long B: Mike Marte/Cradle/RJ Stroud/Brooks (season 3)
22: SetA: Prieto/Nicholas Mckiney (AA)
23: SetB Pepe Sierra/Mike Marte/Cradle/RJ Stroud/Brooks (season 3)
24: SetB: Pepe Sierra/Mike Marte/Cradle/RJ Stroud/Brooks (season 3)
25: Cl: Dennis Thornton (AA)

Overall, I think the club will be better next year. Hopefully up near 500. My payroll looks be less in season 4 than season 3 as the last of the bad inherited contracts will roll off the books. I’m not opposed to adding talent via trade, however, I would want to add talent at spots of organizational weakness that would fit into my long term plans. Relieve pitcher and SS/CF and perhaps corner outfield or 1b are areas that I would improve with the right move. I like my organizational starting pitching even if it is a little far away.

Goals for season 4

1. 80 wins.
2. Keep the prospects and young veterans healthy.
3. Add 2 impact players in player procurement.
4. Add some depth system wide and perhaps trading some AA and AAA prospects for Low A prospects to restock the lower part of the farm.

S13 Minimum Win Requirements

Here are the minimum win requirements for the teams that failed to win at least 75 games in Season 12:

Pittsburgh - 54
Boston - 60
Cheyenne - 52
Vancouver - 63
Sioux Falls - 67
N.Y. Yankees - 56
Oklahoma City - 56
Boise - 51

Most Expensive International Free Agents

Updated Nov. 25 . . .
10) Aurelio Martin, lhp, Kansas City Monarchs (Season 4), $19.5 million
9) Bartolo Estrada, lhp, Boston Red Sox (Season 6), $20 million
Shigetoshi Itou, rhp, Washington D.C. Bureaucrats (Season 6), $20 million
Juan Bonilla, rhp, Buffalo Europeans (Season 8), $20 million
8) Jesus Benitez, of, Philadelphia Phenomenauts (Season 8), $20.1 million
7) Marino Reyes, of, Rochester Rochester Redwings (Season 3), $20.4 million
6) Francisco Tatis, lhp, Washington D.C. Bureaucrats (Season 7), $20.8 million
5) Ramiro Rosado, rhp, Minnesota Fatboys (Season 12), $24.1 million
4) Benito Julio, lhp, Boston Red Sox (Season 13), $25 million
3) Yuniesky Cruz, 2b, Boston Red Sox (Season 12), $26 million
2) Chan Koh, lhp, Minnesota Fatboys (Season 13), $28 million
1) Wascar Lopez, rhp, New York Metropolitans (Season 11), $30 million

GW1: What to do about Florida

There's still some time left, but barring a miracle it looks like Florida will become the first team to fail the GW1/GW2 minimum-win requirement. Under the rules, thegeneral13 will be stripped of ownership following the season and the team will be given to a new owner beginning with Season 13.

However, before that moment arrives I'd like to have a discussion about a possible alternative to kicking him out of the league. I'm typically someone who believes in strictly sticking to rules that everyone is aware of well ahead of time, but in this case we're talking about an original GW1 and GW2 owner with 15 seasons of experience between the two worlds plus a championship in GW2, seven playoff appearances, and a .533 winning percentage overall.

In other words, thegeneral13 is a good owner and someone I'm sure everyone has enjoyed having in both leagues. I'm fully prepared to kick him out of the league, but would certainly rather avoid doing so if it made sense to everyone. So, my basic idea is that this first win-rule failure could serve as a one-time-only notice in GW1 and GW2 that sometimes teams built to win 60 games underperform and win 50, so you absolutely need to take every precaution necessary to meet a requirement and then some.

I'm convinced that the minimum-win requirements make for better, more competitive leagues and am not suggesting we eliminate them. However, I'm also convinced that having thegeneral13 in GW1 makes for a better league as well. I'd like to get everyone's thoughts on the matter, whether you want him booted, agree with the above proposal to make this a one-time-only warning, or have another potential solution. And if you're uncomfortable discussing your thoughts on here or world chat, please e-mail or instant message me and we'll keep the discussion private.

GW2: Season 3 win requirements

Here is a list of win requirements this season for teams that won fewer than 75 games last season:

Minnesota: 60
Rochester: 53
Austin: 64
Trenton: 55
Cheyenne: 52

NL South preview: Season 12

St. Louis Greys (97-65, NL South champions)

After the most exciting offseason in Greys history, St. Louis was back to its typical, inactive ways this offseason. The biggest loss was RP Lawrence Edwards and the Greys didn't add anybody of consequence.

Matt Governale returns as the key to the offense after an excellent first season in the NL, but he'll need help if St. Louis is going to improve on last season's 10th-place showing in runs scored.

Bronson Ritz is a good hitter, although he was probably over his head last season, and Vladimir Pichardo and Slim Gutierrez are both solid, but the rest of the lineup is pretty mediocre.

Fortunately for St. Louis, it returns most of the pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs in the NL last season. The key, obviously, is five-time Cy Young winner (including the last four) John Carroll.

He's joined in the rotation by solid, if unspectacular, starters Howie Dalesandro, Willis Smith and Roy Gold, with David Alvarado as a weak fifth starter.

The bullpen is led by the fine trio of Nate Pedersen, Don Parkers and Edgardo Uribe.

Prediction: 94-68, NL South champions

Oklahoma City Twins (81-81)

The Twins overachieved in Season 11, and GM garlogic realizes that his team isn't ready to contend despite what seems like steady improvement from Season 9 to Season 11. As a result, he got rid of several players in the offseason, most notably 19-game winner Lance Lara and solid innings-eater D'Angelo Pascual.

Oklahoma City finished last in the NL with 640 runs scored and it looks like offense will be a problem again. Kirk Titan is the best returning player who received at least 300 at-bats and he'll get an expanded role. Kevin North will also get a full-time role after a brutal cup of coffee in the majors last season.

Lariel Lee and Ray Lyons are the only other returning position players who posted an OPS above .620 last season.

Adrian Henderson, Vic Lopez and Bobby Metzger are the three returning starters and they'll be joined by rookie Ben Weston and an unknown fifth starter. The bullpen is led by Moe Farley, Jesus Santos and Henry Gilmore.

Prediction: 65-97

Monterrey Conquistadores (75-87)

After two nice seasons in Atlanta, the franchise moved to Monterrey and has had trouble getting anything going, topping out at 85 wins in Season 10. After a step back in Season 11, the Conquistadores hope to start making progress toward a return to the playoffs.

Monterrey jettisoned four players this offseason who had significant roles with the team last season, none of them particularly good: SP Carl Gray, SP Bum Marte, 3B Pedro Pulido and LF Victor Bieser, plus a couple relievers who also struggled.

Monterrey didn't bring in a whole lot of new talent in the offseason, signing Houston Linden to replace Pulido at third and Richard Delaney to replace one of the departed relievers. Neither of them is great, but they should at least be able to do what the players they're replacing did.

The biggest upgrades to the team this season are expected to come from the promotion of a couple prospects after 20 games.

Taylor Turner will replace Bieser in left field and should be a massive improvement. Combined with Francisco Nunez (about half the time), Ted Simpson and Dennis Nelson (who should bounce back from a down season), Taylor will give Monterrey an imposing heart of the order.

The other call-up will be Ismael Colome, who should be an improvement over Gray and will join Max Moehler to provide a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation.

Unfortunately, the back of the rotation isn't very good with Loaiza and Otis Upshaw and the bullpen is mediocre at best.

Prediction: 83-79

Iowa City Comics (63-99)

Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Comics lost two players who had full-time roles in Season 11: 2B Alejandro Javier and SP Joe Sanders. Neither is a star, but both are solid players and will be missed by a team just looking to win at least 62 games.

The Comics brought in 3B Darron Jenkins and SP William Cheng, and while both are a bit past their prime, they should be able to contribute.

Future Hall of Famer Chipper Velandia remains as a reminder of how good the franchise used to be, but there's just not very much talent around him.

It's going to be a tense season in Iowa City as the win rule looms large. Fortunately, the Comics underperformed a bit last season. The team had the run differential of a 70-win team, so even if the talent level is lower this season, there should be something of a buffer.

Prediction: 65-97

NL East Season 12 Preview

This has to be the most boring preview ever.

Bureaucrats, Jayhawks, Yankees, Frymaster.

Done.

There's at least a 95% chance it winds up that way, which is ordinarily remarkable I suppose, but there are just too many gaps between each team over 162 games for anything else to happen.

But fine, a preview is a preview:

Washington, World Series back to back champions

Want the bad news right away? Ok: Dave Worrell. The Bureaucrats farm system pipeline is not yet done producing talent, as Season 8's first round draft pick figures to hit the big league roster 20 games into the season. A trade for Larry Piatt is probably the next most significant improvement if I'd have to guess. So it's not all terrible for the rest of the league.

On the positive side (for the rest of the league of course), due to some unconscious contracts handed out to SS's during a particularly aggressive run on FA SS's (Oscar Sugawara, welcome to 26mm/4 years. 32 year old Cesar Piedra? Welcome to over 9mm a year for 3 years. Scot F'ing Busby, your 8.2 mm contract is right over here), Washington wound up having to spend it's extra payroll locking up Dale Smart and his 83 glove. The same could be said for Derek Boone, I'm certainly glad that money is being spent on these two rather than on a $20 million prospect budget. Small victories....

Prediction: 108 wins, Division Champs, no 3-peat

Chicago Jayhawks

Last year saw the arrival of Ace prospect Juan Arroyo, Ace Closer Jimmie Estrella and the poor man's Mark Texeira: Mike Jarvis. This season Chitown has far less to look forward to from the farm, perhaps Fernando Cruz, but not much more behind him I'm guessing.

So in turn, GM thorku did what GM thorku's do: Wheel & Deal. First stop? Back up the Brinks truck and make a substantial deposit in the Artistic Capital of the World: Florence, Italy. Bongiorno Billy Ray Perry! Throw in a solid innings eater in Phil Sanders, very solid 2B Daryl Morgan & the very rotting and decaying smelly corpse of Bryan Beckett and you have an improved squad without a doubt. Just not enough to win the division unfortunately.

Prediction: 2nd spot in the NL East, 5th seed overall. NL Pennant a real possibility.

NY Yankees

On the heels of it's franchises two worst seasons ever, GM goosegoslin is getting excited once more about big league baseball in NY. Presumably this means a move above the .500 line, and further distance between the team that drafted 2nd overall last year; the Yankees are on the slow road back to respectability.

Unfortunately, and this will surprise precisely no one, I'm actually having trouble figuring out who the members of the "Fab Five" are exactly (GM goose made reference to a quintet getting called up at game 20). Future SS Luis Alvarez is presumably not on the list (he has yet to have a single AAA AB), and David "The Beast" Calderon has already been told he'll be at AAA as well.

Jared Kraemer is certainly on the list, although his .929 MiL career OPS, while solid, won't make many All-Star games. LF Pablo Merced, now in his 7th year as a professional is presumably a lock due to sheer age, but 36 power for a CO leaves it's doubts that he's worthy of being called an improvement. I'm guessing Al Sierra is on the list, but 52 PC catchers who's hitting ratings top out at 76/77 are somewhat dime a dozen in WIS. I'm guessing RP Junior Navarro makes the list with his 76 control and 73/63 splits? Perhaps Happy Magadan and his 69/59 splits?

I'm not sure, and in the end don't see too much happening here - .500 seems like a high end projection to me, but I'll go with it out of respect for the gooser's knack for getting the most out of the least.

Prediction: 3rd place in the NL East, 81-81 record.

Frymaster (Still refuse to acknowledge San Juan/Tampa. I say fry should move once more just for fun)

Well, the man is still here, give him that much credit at very least. After winning 124, 128 and 130 games over 2 running seasons for the past 4 years, the Frymaster has pretty much pushed the limits of suck. If there was a Greg Maddux "painting the corners" award for GM's, fry would sweep in destructive fashion.

This year's pile of suck? May I interest you in Ben Everett at 2x $2.5 million? If I said I had Cristian Daly at 2x $1.75 million, would that be something you might be interested in? Francis Green for 2@2.665 mill? Darryl Walker, $2.87mm for 2 years? Veritable ACE Javy James went for a relatively good value by comparison: 8 million total, spread out over 2 years. Even lightning rod of controversy Calvin Chen scored himself a sweet $3.4mm in guaranteed money over the next 2 years.

And with that, my head hurts.

Prediction: Let's not jinx it...

Season 12 win requirements

Here are the win totals needed in Season 12 for the franchises that didn't win at least 75 games in Season 11.

Pittsburgh - 55
Boston - 59
Florida - 59
San Antonio - 62
Cheyenne - 56
Milwaukee - 61
San Juan - 60
Iowa City - 62
Boise - 51

Season 11 win requirements

Here are number of wins needed this season to stay in the league for teams that won less than 75 games in Season 10:

Pittsburgh: 56
Cheyenne: 61
Los Angeles: 64
Sioux Falls: 53
Milwaukee: 56
San Juan: 60
N.Y. Yankees: 62
Iowa City: 58
Salem: 55

AL North Preview: Season 11

Buffalo Europeans (AL) nealphd View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 10: 100-62, AL North Champs, lost to the Minnesota Fatboys in the DCS

The defending division champs decided to keep as much of their pitching staff as possible intact; the only turnover involved low-leverage reliever Douglas Johns replacing little-used Glen Leon. On the flip side, nealphd did bring in a few new position players, including 3B Houston Linden, C Tony Hernandez, and recent call-up Norm Webster. Linden will likely be an everyday player, while Hernandez and Webster will share duties with incumbents Tuck Stein and Luis Uribe, respectively. This year's team, as is, looks likely to suffer from the same pitfalls as last year's team; Uribe is a butcher at SS, the bullpen doesn't have much depth after Sandy Bryant, and the lineup is merely decent. The rotation is still as good as any in baseball, though. Last year's performance wasn't a fluke; look for them to run away with the title of AL's best team this year.

Prediction: 108-54, Division champs

Minnesota Fatboys (AL) aarongleeman View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 10: 97-65, lost to the Washington Bureaucrats in the World Series

The Fatboys were hit as hard as any one team by free agency; four of their departing players combined for 15 All-Star game appearances (Stewart, Crespo, Washington, Fonville). Minnesota also dealt away starting pitchers Norm Ellenwood and Lance Lara, although the losses were somewhat mitigated by adding capable arms Dennis Cohen and Billy Ray Perry. However, that appears to be at least a small net loss, and even the better starters on the roster all have some question marks (Is Harrison better than last year? Will Becker rebound from last year's injury? Does Leary still "have it" at 40 years old?). The Fatboys also dealt away SS Guy Wise, although the organizational depth at the position borders on ludicrous. The bullpen features the three-headed monster of Croushore, Zhou, and Gandarilla; both Croushore and Gandarilla are capable of topping 100 innings of quality relief per season, and Zhou ranks among the better closers in the league. The lineup is still plenty dangerous, although expecting Keeler to repeat last season's performance would be unreasonable under any circumstances. The Fatboys still have a good team, but temper your expectations; this might be the weakest team Minny's fielded in a while.

Prediction: 90-72, Wildcard

*EDIT: Quote taken from Gleeman off the world chat: "I'm not even kidding. Read the AL North preview (which is well done, generally) and if you agree with the wins prediction for the Fatboys, name a number. I'll bet $10,000, if someone wants. Seriously."

Not that I'm completely disagreeing with him (it does feel a bit low, on second thought), but I felt I had to post this so I could look back on it at the end of the season. :-)

Cleveland Rocks (AL) morneau33hr View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 10: 87-75, 3rd place

After a tumultuous offseason that included a controversial vetoed trade, new GM morneau33hr decided to keep the core of the team intact. The problem is, many of the complementary pieces appear to be gone, and no one was signed to replace them. Relievers Kordell Bordick, Ross Livingstone, and Brian Murata were allowed to walk, as were catchers Derek Page and Vic Hardtke and outfielder Hector Hernandez. The Rocks signed OF Luis Cairo to replace Hernandez, but the loss of Page and Hardtke leaves incumbent Rich Beech alone to hit against RHP, which probably isn't the best idea, even considering his defense. Also, the bullpen, once a strength, looks awfully shaky behind Brian Hunt. There are enough stars here to call this a playoff-caliber team, but the glaring holes in the margins of Cleveland's roster makes them a bit of a tough read.

Prediction: 83-79, 3rd place, no playoffs

Fargo Tumbleweeds (AL) sdedalus View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Season 10: 80-82, 4th place

The Tumbleweeds patched up one of their team's biggest holes this offseason, signing C Neil Byrne to replace all-glove C Humberto Martinez and the excrable Miguel Alou. Adding Luis Cervantes to replace Ken James is less of an upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless. However, the rest of last year's thoroughly mediocre team is back at it again, with the same so-so pitching staff to complement what should be a capable, but forgettable lineup. The Tumbleweeds are in an awkward position: they're too good to be considered a rebuilding team, but aren't really contenders in the AL's toughest division. It doesn't appear that will change this season.

Prediction: 79-83, 4th place

NL North preview: Season 11

Vancouver Vigilantes (93-69, NL North champs)

Vancouver lost half-season rental Eugene Ramirez to free agency, but that may not be as big a loss as expected. The Vigilantes went out and signed Ruben Crespo to replace him. While Crespo's not quite as good as Ramirez, he did post a 3.99 ERA in an AL hitters' park last season, while pitching 311 innings. Crespo should be able to improve upon the production Vancouver got from Ramirez and Coco Ferrell last season (a combined 3.89 ERA in 236 innings).

Vancouver's other big loss was RF Douglas Coleridge. To replace his bat, they traded for 3B Darron Jenkins and will move Brandon Sheffield to RF.

Jenkins should help an offense that finished third in the NL in runs scored (894) last season, as he joins 2B Bryan Beckett, Sheffield, CF Joseph Wang, SS Turk Badilla and LF Mark Sakamoto in a balanced lineup. The only weak spot is 1B, where the Vigilantes will try to get by with Pedro Marin.

Crespo leads a rotation that includes Paul Wilson and a bunch of question marks. Pat Bowen and Tomas Moreno have durability issues. Juan Gonzales has stamina issues. And Alfonso Aquino and Fred Torres have issues of quality.

The bullpen will rely heavily on Shigetoshi Itou and Clyde Haynes.

When you factor in the age-related declines of Beckett and Gonzales, Vancouver probably only improved slightly in the offseason. The good news for Vigilantes fans is that nobody else in the division did enough to make up the gap.

Prediction: 94-68, first place by at least 10 games

Ottawa Otters (79-83)

Ottawa didn't lose any critical players, saying goodbye to Rickey Dixon and Octavio Suarez and good riddance to Andy Weaver and Cody Woods. Unfortunately, the Otters didn't add any critical players either, as signing RP Nick Harper was the team's only real offseason move.

Harper will join Josh Houston and Grant Westbrook in what should be a solid bullpen.

The rotation still features quality starters Aurelio Martin and Vinny Matthews at the top, with Pablo Campos, Nick Roosevelt and an unattractive choice between Ed McNamara and Javy Gomez.

The pitching staff allowed 720 runs last season, fifth in the NL, and should be somewhere in that range again this season. The offense, on the other hand, is a mess. It was 12th in the league with 709 runs scored last season and doesn't appear much improved.

LF Enrique Melendez is the only player on Ottawa's roster who had at least 250 at-bats for the Otters last season and posted an OPS above .800. RF Tony Cela should bounce back from a disappointing season, but it's no guarantee. James Holmes and Esteban Lecuona will take some of the at-bats left by the departures of Dixon, Weaver and Woods, but it remains to be seen whether they can improve on the poor performance of that trio.

Prediction: 81-81

Sioux Falls Gunslingers (72-90)

Sioux Falls also didn't lose anybody of consequence, and actually made one of the biggest one-for-one upgrades of the entire offseason. The Gunslingers kicked Howard Riley (.543 OPS in 387 at-bats) to the curb and signed J.D. Pettyjohn to take most of the at-bats at catcher. Even if Pettyjohn fails to replicate last season's career year, he'll be a huge improvement over Riley. Sioux Falls' offense (15th in the NL last season) should also get more production from corner outfielders Al Rapp and Carlos Carreras.

Sioux Falls' other offseason move was to trade for SP Jayson Ellis who should benefit from leaving Fenway behind and joining the NL. He'll lead a rag-tag rotation that may shift a lot througout the season.

The strength of the Gunslingers is definitely its bullpen, led by Crash Miller, Larry Piatt and Rob Hutch.

Prediction: 75-87

Milwaukee Twindyans (69-93)

After nine consecutive winning seasons and eight playoff appearances, Milwaukee fell hard last season, and it's not going to get any better this season. The Twindyans traded their best hitter (Darrin Murphy) during season 10 and then lost their next-best hitter (Victor Bieser) in the offseason. So an offense that was 13th in the NL with 691 runs scored last season could be much, much worse this season.

On top of that, the Twindyans also lost their best starting pitcher (Larry Williamson) during the offseason and will replace him with rookie Theo Marquis, who should be solid but is untested as of yet.

And the only relievers in the bullpen who posted sub-4 ERAs in significant action are Rickey Bolick and the ancient Vic Alfonzo.

Prediction: 65-97