Monday, December 22, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
The Spending Spree: A Midseason Report
After another disappointing season,
And give it a go they did, they signed a world record 5 type A free agents, this is a look at those, and a few other, deals that turned an overlooked franchise into a playoff contender.
The Type A’s
Rigo Pineda SP
2/15 with (9 mil mutual option) no trade clause
The first type A to sign with the SFB, Pineda was signed to replace Tommy Liverman, dealt at the end of last year to get younger at catcher (more on this in a moment). Pineda got off to a very slow start, but has since moved his ERA toward the respectable line.
Geoffrey Bates RF/LF/1B
2/17.5 (10 mil mutual option) no trade clause
Ross Livingstone SUa
2/8 (5 mil mutual option) No trade clause
The biggest area of concern for the SFBs was the bullpen,
Brian Hunt SUa
3/18 (6 mil mutual option)
If there was one player
Derek Page C/DH
2/5
Seriously? This guy was available for 2/5? A durable, everyday catcher with an 880 career OPS and an above average PC rating?
Had
Other signings.
Benito Carreras SUb
1/750k (1 million mutual option)
Despite possessing a career ERA over 6, Carreras has nice ratings for relievers. He has come a long way since his debut season with
1/ 2.2 (2.2 mil mutual option)
Benito Valentin Util
1/1.4
Once it was decided Chantres wasn’t going to be the everyday SS, it didn’t make sense to give him service time to be the backup, so a search for a util guy was in order.
The second piece which came over with Haynes in the Bates deal, Valentin never lived up to
Trades
2/8.2 (7.8 mil mutual option)
Acquired from the Metropolitans for last years 46th overall pick, Jason Miller,
Currently,
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Minimum Wins Cutoff Update
We're a bit over 1/3 of the way into the season, so I'd figure I'd list a few of the teams that may be in danger of losing over 100 games this season (other than Salem). Think of it as a friendly public service announcement. I'll also rate how much "trouble" the franchise's GM is in on a scale of "detention in HS" to "being thrown out of an airplane with no parachute." You can guess where your team's rating falls in between these two. So without further ado...
Montreal Grand Orange (15-29): Only Marino Reyes has an OPS above .800 among all hitters, and the team is 30th in the World in preventing runs. At 15-29, they've essentially played to their record.
"Trouble" rating: Charlie Weis' future with Notre Dame.
Philadelphia Phenomenauts (18-26): They're on pace to lose 96 games this season, but the Phenomenauts have improved their team quite a bit by promoting the bulk of their stacked AAA squad to the majors. For what it's worth, they've won 10 of their last 18 games.
"Trouble" rating: Nolan Ryan's career strikeout record.
Florida Cottonmouths (16-28): They still can't hit a lick (fewest runs scored in the AL), but at least the pitching's held together reasonably well after the departure of Molina and Thomas. A slight uptick in offense through either a trade or better luck would get them out of the doghouse.
"Trouble" rating: Gordon Ramsay's public image.
Los Angeles Hangars (18-26): A sub-.300 team OBP is atrocious, but the rotation has actually been pretty solid, and the bullpen really has nowhere to go but up. Gettting a few guys who can post a league average OBP would help, but this doesn't look too bad.
"Trouble" rating: The Detroit Lions' winless streak.
Las Vegas Armijos (15-29): Their record isn't so hot, but they're clearly a better team than this; they've won 3 games less than expected, and the promotion of star prospect Alex Bravo should give this team a shot in the arm. Still, 15-29 is pretty ugly, and Bravo alone can only improve the team so much.
"Trouble" rating: Tim Raines' HOF chances.
Tacoma Down Pour (16-28): They've been pretty bad up to this point, but have made plenty of trades to improve their roster. The team you see now is radically different from the Opening Day squad.
"Trouble" rating: Baseball's national popularity.
San Juan Rincons (13-31): Just swept by the Downpour, and on a 6 game losing streak. Somehow, their expected win percentage is actually worse than their current record. The only team currently at risk of failing to meet the 50-win mark. They need help, and fast.
"Trouble" rating: Rae Carruth.
Montreal Grand Orange (15-29): Only Marino Reyes has an OPS above .800 among all hitters, and the team is 30th in the World in preventing runs. At 15-29, they've essentially played to their record.
"Trouble" rating: Charlie Weis' future with Notre Dame.
Philadelphia Phenomenauts (18-26): They're on pace to lose 96 games this season, but the Phenomenauts have improved their team quite a bit by promoting the bulk of their stacked AAA squad to the majors. For what it's worth, they've won 10 of their last 18 games.
"Trouble" rating: Nolan Ryan's career strikeout record.
Florida Cottonmouths (16-28): They still can't hit a lick (fewest runs scored in the AL), but at least the pitching's held together reasonably well after the departure of Molina and Thomas. A slight uptick in offense through either a trade or better luck would get them out of the doghouse.
"Trouble" rating: Gordon Ramsay's public image.
Los Angeles Hangars (18-26): A sub-.300 team OBP is atrocious, but the rotation has actually been pretty solid, and the bullpen really has nowhere to go but up. Gettting a few guys who can post a league average OBP would help, but this doesn't look too bad.
"Trouble" rating: The Detroit Lions' winless streak.
Las Vegas Armijos (15-29): Their record isn't so hot, but they're clearly a better team than this; they've won 3 games less than expected, and the promotion of star prospect Alex Bravo should give this team a shot in the arm. Still, 15-29 is pretty ugly, and Bravo alone can only improve the team so much.
"Trouble" rating: Tim Raines' HOF chances.
Tacoma Down Pour (16-28): They've been pretty bad up to this point, but have made plenty of trades to improve their roster. The team you see now is radically different from the Opening Day squad.
"Trouble" rating: Baseball's national popularity.
San Juan Rincons (13-31): Just swept by the Downpour, and on a 6 game losing streak. Somehow, their expected win percentage is actually worse than their current record. The only team currently at risk of failing to meet the 50-win mark. They need help, and fast.
"Trouble" rating: Rae Carruth.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Pinky McWainhouse's Death Watch, Day 2
In an attempt to hasten his demise, and perhaps collect the injury insurance on the ancient hurler, the Jayhawks started the old troll Red Wainhouse on just one day of rest 12/5 PM. This was after his 68 pitch shellacking in the 12/4 PM2 sim.
Wainhouse did not disappoint. Yankee fans that is. Wainhouse's control problems from the day before did not disappear, as he walked Fritz Rushford on four pitches to start the game. Shawn Robinson then made an error, but Wainhouse's telegraphed pitches were hit right at fielders and he escaped the jam, through no fault of his own.
In the second inning Wainhouse gave up a 2-out single. He then allowed Kris Dickey to steal second, due to a dreadfully slow motion, probably brought on by his Osteoporosis. Again the Greys hit the ball hard, but did not capitalize.
The 3rd inning was where the fun really started. Rushford singled. Next, the aging superstar, who has lost much of his speed, still managed to steal second. Wainhouse has already allowed 3 steals this year. Starting with season 4, 102 runners have tried to run on the old man, and just 24 were thrown out. There are already signs this is getting worse.
Bronson Ritz then launched a HR to right center, giving the Greys a 2-1 lead. Wainhouse gave up another line drive for a double, before being rescued by a Marco Hunt (who is only playing for defense) ground out.
In the 4th Wainhouse caused more damage. He gave up a leadoff blast to CF, which Shawn Robinson had to use his great skill to run down. The play caused his hand tendonitis to act up, and he had to leave the game. Robinson is day to day. Way to go Red.
Wainhouse proceeded to give up a three more singles in the inning, and a walk. The old luckbox managed to escape giving up just one run, when Ritz's bases loaded fly, deep down the line, was held by the park. Wainhouse won't be so lucky when he's pitching in Wrigley Field.
Overall the brittle old vet took just 5 innings to throw 96 pitches before being mercifully pulled for a pinch-hitter. In his 9 innings this year, Pinky has given up 13 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks and an injured centerfielder. Opposing hitters have a nifty .325/.372/.500 line against him. He didn't get the loss, but it wasn't for lack of trying, his offense just bailed him out before his bullpen did the inevitable in giving the game to the Greys.
Doctors are still leaving 12/22 as the best guess date for his inevitable season ending injury, but if he continues to throw on 1-day of rest, the time-table could be moved up.
Wainhouse did not disappoint. Yankee fans that is. Wainhouse's control problems from the day before did not disappear, as he walked Fritz Rushford on four pitches to start the game. Shawn Robinson then made an error, but Wainhouse's telegraphed pitches were hit right at fielders and he escaped the jam, through no fault of his own.
In the second inning Wainhouse gave up a 2-out single. He then allowed Kris Dickey to steal second, due to a dreadfully slow motion, probably brought on by his Osteoporosis. Again the Greys hit the ball hard, but did not capitalize.
The 3rd inning was where the fun really started. Rushford singled. Next, the aging superstar, who has lost much of his speed, still managed to steal second. Wainhouse has already allowed 3 steals this year. Starting with season 4, 102 runners have tried to run on the old man, and just 24 were thrown out. There are already signs this is getting worse.
Bronson Ritz then launched a HR to right center, giving the Greys a 2-1 lead. Wainhouse gave up another line drive for a double, before being rescued by a Marco Hunt (who is only playing for defense) ground out.
In the 4th Wainhouse caused more damage. He gave up a leadoff blast to CF, which Shawn Robinson had to use his great skill to run down. The play caused his hand tendonitis to act up, and he had to leave the game. Robinson is day to day. Way to go Red.
Wainhouse proceeded to give up a three more singles in the inning, and a walk. The old luckbox managed to escape giving up just one run, when Ritz's bases loaded fly, deep down the line, was held by the park. Wainhouse won't be so lucky when he's pitching in Wrigley Field.
Overall the brittle old vet took just 5 innings to throw 96 pitches before being mercifully pulled for a pinch-hitter. In his 9 innings this year, Pinky has given up 13 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks and an injured centerfielder. Opposing hitters have a nifty .325/.372/.500 line against him. He didn't get the loss, but it wasn't for lack of trying, his offense just bailed him out before his bullpen did the inevitable in giving the game to the Greys.
Doctors are still leaving 12/22 as the best guess date for his inevitable season ending injury, but if he continues to throw on 1-day of rest, the time-table could be moved up.
Red Wainhouse Death Watch, Day 1
The rotting corpse of Red Wainhouse finally made its way back to the mound for the 12/4 p.m. sim. Wainhouse sat out the first quarter of the season with a very bad case of Osteoporosis and possibly an enlarged prostate. Wainhouse is seeking a second opinion on that one, but rumor has it that he just wants another hand in there where the sun doesn't shine. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but we did overhear his new teammates saying that maybe he should be called "Pink" now.
After much calcium therapy, Wainhouse was far from respectable in his Jayhawk debut. He was a shadow of his very old self in vulturing a win from Gabe Thompson. Red was tagged for 6 hits in 4 innings, including 3 doubles and 2 runs. It would have been worse, but Clay Gibbons made an outstanding play on a Fritz Rushford screamer down that line. The rocket would have been yet another double; Wainhouse also picked a runner off in that inning, but still managed to give up a run.
Wainhouse never threw hard, but his slider doesn't break like it used to, and his change up is looking more and more like his mediocre fastball. He's also having trouble spotting his pitches like he used to. He only gave up one walk, but that was because they were lighting him up before he had a chance to throw 4 balls on most occasions.
All told, Wainhouse made the average Grey look like a .353/.389/.529 hitter on Thursday night. This on the heels of a 1-4, 4.87 ERA post-season that saw him give up 5 HR in season 8. He's got about $15 million coming from the Jayhawks over the next two years, so other than his time on the DL, they'll roll him out there in a wheel chair once it becomes necessary.
The next start on the death march will be his home debut in a Jayhawk uniform against Sioux Falls Saturday, assuming his decrepit, rotting corpse is up for the task of starting by then.
After much calcium therapy, Wainhouse was far from respectable in his Jayhawk debut. He was a shadow of his very old self in vulturing a win from Gabe Thompson. Red was tagged for 6 hits in 4 innings, including 3 doubles and 2 runs. It would have been worse, but Clay Gibbons made an outstanding play on a Fritz Rushford screamer down that line. The rocket would have been yet another double; Wainhouse also picked a runner off in that inning, but still managed to give up a run.
Wainhouse never threw hard, but his slider doesn't break like it used to, and his change up is looking more and more like his mediocre fastball. He's also having trouble spotting his pitches like he used to. He only gave up one walk, but that was because they were lighting him up before he had a chance to throw 4 balls on most occasions.
All told, Wainhouse made the average Grey look like a .353/.389/.529 hitter on Thursday night. This on the heels of a 1-4, 4.87 ERA post-season that saw him give up 5 HR in season 8. He's got about $15 million coming from the Jayhawks over the next two years, so other than his time on the DL, they'll roll him out there in a wheel chair once it becomes necessary.
The next start on the death march will be his home debut in a Jayhawk uniform against Sioux Falls Saturday, assuming his decrepit, rotting corpse is up for the task of starting by then.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Gleeman World's Best Names
Manly Men
Thumper Neagle
Bosco Woolf
Dude Brooks
Moose Roberts
Rip Sherman
Stump Lockwood
Brutus Lloyd
Wolf Lockhart
Spike Purcell
Rock Krivda
Crash Payne
Hawk Glanville
Sting Berger
Players That Make Me Hungry
Cookie Tatis
Banana Carpenter
Spud French
Chili Rogers
Stripper Division
Bubbles Carter
Peaches Halter
Ivy Newman
Alliteration Awesomeness
Don Duckworth
Scooter Spooneybarger
Tuck Twitchell
Slash Smith
Don Donatello
Walter Wunsch
Elvis Ellis
Sergei Serafini
D-List Celebrity Divison
Billy Baldwin
Barry White
Nick Carter
2004 Election Division
Kerry Bush
Other
Slick Wehner
Harry Pujols
Achilles O'Brien
Dolf Jerchower
Storm Bay
Posiedon Smyth
Harpo Klingenbeck
Pepper Boone
Dweezil Gonzales
Ebenezer Washington
Yank Nicholson
Dick Skinner
Dummy Hayes
Hooks Drese
Hootie Dransfeldt
Jin Dong
Footsie Jordan
Dick Rose
Bono Hughes
Zip Kydd
Happy Magadan
Skeeter West
Lazy Rigney
Birdie Cornelius
Dingo Anderson
Bingo Lawton
Nipsey Hoover
Shooter Benson
Turk Badilla
Bum Spehr
Thumper Neagle
Bosco Woolf
Dude Brooks
Moose Roberts
Rip Sherman
Stump Lockwood
Brutus Lloyd
Wolf Lockhart
Spike Purcell
Rock Krivda
Crash Payne
Hawk Glanville
Sting Berger
Players That Make Me Hungry
Cookie Tatis
Banana Carpenter
Spud French
Chili Rogers
Stripper Division
Bubbles Carter
Peaches Halter
Ivy Newman
Alliteration Awesomeness
Don Duckworth
Scooter Spooneybarger
Tuck Twitchell
Slash Smith
Don Donatello
Walter Wunsch
Elvis Ellis
Sergei Serafini
D-List Celebrity Divison
Billy Baldwin
Barry White
Nick Carter
2004 Election Division
Kerry Bush
Other
Slick Wehner
Harry Pujols
Achilles O'Brien
Dolf Jerchower
Storm Bay
Posiedon Smyth
Harpo Klingenbeck
Pepper Boone
Dweezil Gonzales
Ebenezer Washington
Yank Nicholson
Dick Skinner
Dummy Hayes
Hooks Drese
Hootie Dransfeldt
Jin Dong
Footsie Jordan
Dick Rose
Bono Hughes
Zip Kydd
Happy Magadan
Skeeter West
Lazy Rigney
Birdie Cornelius
Dingo Anderson
Bingo Lawton
Nipsey Hoover
Shooter Benson
Turk Badilla
Bum Spehr
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
A look back: Season 1 Draft
With the players from the first amateur draft entering their ninth professional season, I thought it would be a good time to look back and see how that class has done so far.
Since most of the impact players in Gleeman World come from the first round, particularly in this draft, I'm going to rank the 30 players who signed based on what they've done since. Keep in mind that I'm not considering ratings at all. These ratings are based entirely on what each player has accomplished on the field.
Also, after the rankings I'll reveal the best player who wasn't selected in the first round and where he'd rank among the players who were first-rounders.
30. Randy Benard (originally picked 17th by the San Francisco Seals): Benard is currently in his ninth season in the minor leagues without so much as a cup of coffee in the big leagues. His minor league ERA in 592 career innings is an ugly 6.25, and he hasn't had an ERA below 4.15 since Seasons 1 and 2 in rookie ball.
29. Brandon Evans (13th by Sioux Falls): Evans is the other Season 1 first-rounder who never made the majors. He posted a 5.11 ERA in 1,058 minor league innings and hasn't pitched since Season 7.
28. Ray Carson (7th by Florida): The biggest bust of the draft to this point, Carson first reached the majors in Season 4 and then split time between Triple-A and the big leagues in Seasons 5 and 6. He has a 6.87 ERA in 346 career innings in the majors, although he hasn't allowed a run yet in six innings this season.
27. Andre Beimel (9th by San Antonio): Selected as a senior out of Arkansas Tech, Beimel was already in the majors in Season 2. He spent some time in the minors in Seasons 5 and 6, but he's played at least some ball in the majors every year after his first pro season. Probably the worst hitter drafted in the first round (a .240/.265/.364 line in 2,920 at-bats, although some of that comes from playing a lot of games in cavernous Nelson Wolff Municipal Stadium), he has been an OK defensive shortstop (14:13 +/- ratio in more than 6,000 innings).
26. Richie Fielder (32nd by N.Y. Mets): Fielder first reached the majors in Season 6 and his .234/.293/.320 hitting line in 1,528 at-bats since then would be terrible even if he were a great fielder. But while he's been solid at second base (6:1 +/- ratio in almost 2,300 innings), he's been bad in center field (4:11 +/- ratio in nearly 1,400 innings).
25. Morgan Broome (27th by Boston): Broome spent four seasons in the minors before Tacoma took him in the Rule 5 draft, then he had three seasons in the majors before getting released to avoid arbitration. He hasn't pitched since Season 7. In his three seasons, he was unable to take advantage of friendly Cheney Stadium, posting a 5.39 ERA in 503 innings.
24. Rob Tracy (10th by San Francisco): Tracy saw some action in the big leagues in Seasons 6 and 7, but he spent all of Season 8 in Triple-A and is there again this season. In his 355 at-bats in the majors, he hit .237/.288/.369 while playing decent defense at second base.
23. Alex George (30th by Seattle): Another terrible hitter (a .243/.304/.323 line in 638 career at-bats in the majors), George at least displays excellent range in center field with eight plus plays against two minus plays in nearly 1,200 innings, although he does make more errors than you'd like to see from a defensive specialist.
22. Oswaldo Dotel (5th by Tampa Bay): Dotel didn't reach the majors until Season 6, and he had a nice rookie season, posting a 3.87 ERA in 121 innings. But he followed that up with back-to-back 6+ ERA campaigns. Traded this offseason, he has a 5.41 career ERA in 407 innings.
21. Joshua Walsh (23rd by N.Y. Yankees): Walsh spent seven seasons almost entirely in the minors before getting a shot in the majors as a minor league free agent. In 177 major league innings, mostly in the AL, he has a 5.49 ERA.
20. Johnnie Clark (20th by Kansas City): Clark's career has been a bit of a rollercoaster; he's seen big league action in parts of four seasons, but Season 5 was the only time he didn't bounce between the minors and the majors. He's been in Triple-A since the beginning of Season 8, but in his big league action he posted a 4.95 ERA in 303 innings while splitting time between starting and relieving.
19. Darrel Stern (31st by Rochester): Stern didn't reach the majors until Season 7, but he's had a full-time job since then, hitting .272/.331/.448 in 1,083 at-bats. That's OK, but it's certainly nothing special for a first baseman (although Stern could certainly handle left field if Tampa Bay wanted to use him there).
18. Patrick Hartman (29th by Honolulu): Hartman was in the majors as a part-time player already in Season 2, and he's played regularly since midway through Season 3. He's posted a .276/.337/.411 line in 2,832 at-bats. His trial as a middle infielder early in his career didn't go well, but he's been OK as a third baseman, where he's seen the most action.
17. Tuck Price (21st by Norfolk): Price is another player who got three seasons in the majors with Tacoma before reaching arbitration and being deemed too expensive. He hit .274/.334/.401 in 1,154 at-bats and was actually a decent hitter once you factor in his home park. Defensively, he was an OK third baseman.
16. Clark Murphy (19th by N.Y. Mets): Murphy first reached the majors in Season 5 and bounced up and down for a few seasons, but he seems to have found a permanent home in the majors now. His 4.82 career ERA in 155 innings is decent for a reliever who's spent his whole career in the AL.
15. Daniel Brinkley (18th by Atlanta): Brinkley was mediocre his first two seasons in the majors (5.20 and 5.47 ERAs in Seasons 6 and 7), but he's been very tough to hit since then. Overall, he has a 4.44 ERA in 225 major league innings.
14. Gerald Griffiths (22nd by Omaha): Griffiths looks at first glance like a terrible hitter (.241/.315/.392 line in 1,400 at-bats), but he's posted an OPS above .800 in his career away from Tacoma. And while his defense is bad at second base (1:8 +/- ratio in about 1,500 innings), he's excellent in left field (5:0 +/- ratio in about 1,500 innings).
13. Byung-Hyun Yosida (16th by Charlotte): Traded three times in his young career, although he didn't play for one of the organizations that had him, he has been a solid combination of offense and defense. He's hit .269/.332/.437 in 2,405 at-bats (although he's struggled mightily since leaving the friendly confines of Fenway Park) and he's been an above average fielder at both second base (11:5 +/- ratio in more than 2,600 innings) and center field (10:1 +/- ratio in more than 2,800 innings).
12. Louie Dispenza (6th by St. Louis): One of the few players picked in this first round to stay with the same organization his entire career, Dispenza reached the majors early in Season 4 and has played regularly since then. He's a .279/.346/.450 hitter in 2,914 at-bats and a good fielder at third base (11:2 +/- ratio in more than 6,000 innings). He was an All-Star in Season 7, although he had better numbers in Seasons 6 and 8.
11. Marlon Martin (26th by Washington): Martin moved quickly through the Washington/Scranton farm system before getting traded to Buffalo and spending nearly two full seasons at Triple-A. He finally reached the majors late in Season 5 and has been a starter since, hitting .272/.341/.487 in 1,792 at-bats. Defensively, he was stretched playing second base early in his career (2:10 +/- ratio in more than 2,000 innings), but he's been a solid left fielder (3:1 +/- ratio in nearly 1,500 innings).
10. Lance Lara (12th by Oklahoma City): Lara reached the majors in Season 3, then bounced between the minors and majors until staying in the bigs for good starting in Season 8. He did spend all of Season 5 in the majors, winning the Rookie of the Year award with a 3.54 ERA in 203 innings. He's posted a 4.36 ERA in 456 innings, as a starter for Oklahoma City and a reliever for Minnesota, although about three-quarters of that time his home park was very pitcher-friendly.
9. Garrett Kline (28th by Minnesota): Washington traded for Kline during Season 5 and he has been a fixture in the big league rotation since early in Season 6. He's posted a 4.66 ERA in about 450 innings.
8. Dan Stechschulte (25th by N.Y. Mets): Still only 26 years old, Stechschulte is already in his fifth season as a big league reliever for the Phenomenauts. He's posted a 4.74 ERA in 431 innings, which is solid for an AL pitcher. He made the All-Star team in Season 8, when he saved 25 games and posted a 3.59 ERA in 52 innings.
7. Dennis Cohen (2nd by Boise): Another Season 1 first-rounder who has spent his whole career with the same organization, Cohen reached the majors in Season 4 and has been a fixture there except for a trip to the minors after he posted a 6.45 ERA in Season 6. That disaster aside, he's been a nice starting pitcher, although he's in the bullpen to start this season, with a sub-4.00 ERA three times. For his career, he's posted a 4.55 ERA in 749 innings.
6. Pat Bowen (11th by Milwaukee): The best of a pretty uninspiring crop of pitchers, Bowen made it to the majors in Season 5 and was strictly a reliever his first three seasons. Thet Twindyans have started using him as a starting pitcher the last two seasons. He's been very consistent so far in his career and has a 3.60 ERA in about 370 innings.
5. Sting Berger (24th by Syracuse): One of the drafts biggest steals, Berger debuted halfway through Season 5 and contributed immediately with a .916 OPS as a rookie. Now starting his fourth full season, Berger has a career line of .277/.331/.523 with 147 homers in 2,151 at-bats. Defensively, he's been a solid third baseman with seven plus plays and three minus plays in 4,200-plus innings, but more errors than you'd like to see. He made his one All-Star appearance in Season 7, when he posted an .897 OPS.
4. Clay Gibbons (14th by Chicago): Gibbons was one of the many prospects the Jayhawks sent packing in the early years before re-acquiring him midway through Season 8. For his career, he's been very similar to Berger but with a bit more power, hitting .279/.336/.536 with 142 homers in 2,032 at-bats. His best season was his first full year, when he posted a .910 OPS and hit 43 homers with 118 RBI in Season 6 for his only All-Star appearance. Defensively, Gibbons was a disaster early in his career when he saw time at shortstop (0:8 +/- ratio in 1,000-plus innings) and mediocre at second base (0:1 +/- ratio in 1,100-plus innings), but he's been solid at third base (2:0 +/- ratio in nearly 2,000 innings).
3. Brent O'Donnell (1st by Norfolk): O'Donnell got his first taste of the majors as a 20-year-old in Season 3, and he was up for good in Season 4. In four-plus seasons, he's hit .305/.373/.544 with 164 homers in 2,731 at-bats. His best year was Season 6, when he hit .322/.390/.574 with 37 homers and 102 RBI and also made the All-Star team and won the Home Run Derby. His defense in right field has been a bit spotty with four plus plays and nine minus plays in 4,200-plus innings.
2. Bill Cameron (4th by Albuquerque): Cameron made his debut early in Season 4 and was an instant star, posting a .952 OPS to win the Rookie of the Year award and the Silver Slugger award and make the All-Star team. He's been an All-Star all five of his big league seasons and has won three Silver Slugger awards at second base. He's probably the best offensive second baseman in Gleeman World history at this point, even when you account for his favorable home parks, with a .299/.359/.596 line in 2,713 at-bats. He's also hit 188 homers, driven in 634 runs and stolen 126 bases in 169 attempts (a 75% success rate). With a bat like his, you don't mind that his defense is mediocre (7:10 +/- ratio in 5,800-plus innings at second).
1. Pete Skinner (3rd by San Diego): If San Diego still had a team, it's fans would still be moaning about the one that got away. Skinner's the third-best hitter and best overall player from this draft, and the trade that sent him to Milwaukee was a fleecing. For his career, Skinner has posted a .291/.351/.549 line with 154 homers and 115 steals (in 158 attempts; 73%) in 2,705 at-bats. To go along with that, he's played excellent defense in center field, with 70 plus plays and only three minus plays in 5,700-plus innings. Skinner has made three All-Star teams (winning game MVP once) and taken home one Silver Slugger and one Gold Glove award. He won both of those awards in Season 7, when he posted a .961 OPS and made 19 plus plays with one minus play.
Biggest drop: Carson from 7th to 28th.
Biggest improvement: Berger from 24th to 5th and Kline from 28th to 9th
Best non first-rounder
Neil Byrne (taken in the 4th round, 141st overall, by Rochester): Just traded to the Yankees this offseason, Byrne had 4.5 solid seasons in Milwaukee. For his career, he has a .273/.337/.441 line in 1,691 at-bats. He hasn't been a great catcher (49 passed balls and a 76% success rate allowed on steal attempts), but the fact that he can hold his own behind the plate at all makes his bat a real value. He would probably slot in sixth or seventh among the first-rounders based on what he's done so far, which makes him an amazing steal.
Since most of the impact players in Gleeman World come from the first round, particularly in this draft, I'm going to rank the 30 players who signed based on what they've done since. Keep in mind that I'm not considering ratings at all. These ratings are based entirely on what each player has accomplished on the field.
Also, after the rankings I'll reveal the best player who wasn't selected in the first round and where he'd rank among the players who were first-rounders.
30. Randy Benard (originally picked 17th by the San Francisco Seals): Benard is currently in his ninth season in the minor leagues without so much as a cup of coffee in the big leagues. His minor league ERA in 592 career innings is an ugly 6.25, and he hasn't had an ERA below 4.15 since Seasons 1 and 2 in rookie ball.
29. Brandon Evans (13th by Sioux Falls): Evans is the other Season 1 first-rounder who never made the majors. He posted a 5.11 ERA in 1,058 minor league innings and hasn't pitched since Season 7.
28. Ray Carson (7th by Florida): The biggest bust of the draft to this point, Carson first reached the majors in Season 4 and then split time between Triple-A and the big leagues in Seasons 5 and 6. He has a 6.87 ERA in 346 career innings in the majors, although he hasn't allowed a run yet in six innings this season.
27. Andre Beimel (9th by San Antonio): Selected as a senior out of Arkansas Tech, Beimel was already in the majors in Season 2. He spent some time in the minors in Seasons 5 and 6, but he's played at least some ball in the majors every year after his first pro season. Probably the worst hitter drafted in the first round (a .240/.265/.364 line in 2,920 at-bats, although some of that comes from playing a lot of games in cavernous Nelson Wolff Municipal Stadium), he has been an OK defensive shortstop (14:13 +/- ratio in more than 6,000 innings).
26. Richie Fielder (32nd by N.Y. Mets): Fielder first reached the majors in Season 6 and his .234/.293/.320 hitting line in 1,528 at-bats since then would be terrible even if he were a great fielder. But while he's been solid at second base (6:1 +/- ratio in almost 2,300 innings), he's been bad in center field (4:11 +/- ratio in nearly 1,400 innings).
25. Morgan Broome (27th by Boston): Broome spent four seasons in the minors before Tacoma took him in the Rule 5 draft, then he had three seasons in the majors before getting released to avoid arbitration. He hasn't pitched since Season 7. In his three seasons, he was unable to take advantage of friendly Cheney Stadium, posting a 5.39 ERA in 503 innings.
24. Rob Tracy (10th by San Francisco): Tracy saw some action in the big leagues in Seasons 6 and 7, but he spent all of Season 8 in Triple-A and is there again this season. In his 355 at-bats in the majors, he hit .237/.288/.369 while playing decent defense at second base.
23. Alex George (30th by Seattle): Another terrible hitter (a .243/.304/.323 line in 638 career at-bats in the majors), George at least displays excellent range in center field with eight plus plays against two minus plays in nearly 1,200 innings, although he does make more errors than you'd like to see from a defensive specialist.
22. Oswaldo Dotel (5th by Tampa Bay): Dotel didn't reach the majors until Season 6, and he had a nice rookie season, posting a 3.87 ERA in 121 innings. But he followed that up with back-to-back 6+ ERA campaigns. Traded this offseason, he has a 5.41 career ERA in 407 innings.
21. Joshua Walsh (23rd by N.Y. Yankees): Walsh spent seven seasons almost entirely in the minors before getting a shot in the majors as a minor league free agent. In 177 major league innings, mostly in the AL, he has a 5.49 ERA.
20. Johnnie Clark (20th by Kansas City): Clark's career has been a bit of a rollercoaster; he's seen big league action in parts of four seasons, but Season 5 was the only time he didn't bounce between the minors and the majors. He's been in Triple-A since the beginning of Season 8, but in his big league action he posted a 4.95 ERA in 303 innings while splitting time between starting and relieving.
19. Darrel Stern (31st by Rochester): Stern didn't reach the majors until Season 7, but he's had a full-time job since then, hitting .272/.331/.448 in 1,083 at-bats. That's OK, but it's certainly nothing special for a first baseman (although Stern could certainly handle left field if Tampa Bay wanted to use him there).
18. Patrick Hartman (29th by Honolulu): Hartman was in the majors as a part-time player already in Season 2, and he's played regularly since midway through Season 3. He's posted a .276/.337/.411 line in 2,832 at-bats. His trial as a middle infielder early in his career didn't go well, but he's been OK as a third baseman, where he's seen the most action.
17. Tuck Price (21st by Norfolk): Price is another player who got three seasons in the majors with Tacoma before reaching arbitration and being deemed too expensive. He hit .274/.334/.401 in 1,154 at-bats and was actually a decent hitter once you factor in his home park. Defensively, he was an OK third baseman.
16. Clark Murphy (19th by N.Y. Mets): Murphy first reached the majors in Season 5 and bounced up and down for a few seasons, but he seems to have found a permanent home in the majors now. His 4.82 career ERA in 155 innings is decent for a reliever who's spent his whole career in the AL.
15. Daniel Brinkley (18th by Atlanta): Brinkley was mediocre his first two seasons in the majors (5.20 and 5.47 ERAs in Seasons 6 and 7), but he's been very tough to hit since then. Overall, he has a 4.44 ERA in 225 major league innings.
14. Gerald Griffiths (22nd by Omaha): Griffiths looks at first glance like a terrible hitter (.241/.315/.392 line in 1,400 at-bats), but he's posted an OPS above .800 in his career away from Tacoma. And while his defense is bad at second base (1:8 +/- ratio in about 1,500 innings), he's excellent in left field (5:0 +/- ratio in about 1,500 innings).
13. Byung-Hyun Yosida (16th by Charlotte): Traded three times in his young career, although he didn't play for one of the organizations that had him, he has been a solid combination of offense and defense. He's hit .269/.332/.437 in 2,405 at-bats (although he's struggled mightily since leaving the friendly confines of Fenway Park) and he's been an above average fielder at both second base (11:5 +/- ratio in more than 2,600 innings) and center field (10:1 +/- ratio in more than 2,800 innings).
12. Louie Dispenza (6th by St. Louis): One of the few players picked in this first round to stay with the same organization his entire career, Dispenza reached the majors early in Season 4 and has played regularly since then. He's a .279/.346/.450 hitter in 2,914 at-bats and a good fielder at third base (11:2 +/- ratio in more than 6,000 innings). He was an All-Star in Season 7, although he had better numbers in Seasons 6 and 8.
11. Marlon Martin (26th by Washington): Martin moved quickly through the Washington/Scranton farm system before getting traded to Buffalo and spending nearly two full seasons at Triple-A. He finally reached the majors late in Season 5 and has been a starter since, hitting .272/.341/.487 in 1,792 at-bats. Defensively, he was stretched playing second base early in his career (2:10 +/- ratio in more than 2,000 innings), but he's been a solid left fielder (3:1 +/- ratio in nearly 1,500 innings).
10. Lance Lara (12th by Oklahoma City): Lara reached the majors in Season 3, then bounced between the minors and majors until staying in the bigs for good starting in Season 8. He did spend all of Season 5 in the majors, winning the Rookie of the Year award with a 3.54 ERA in 203 innings. He's posted a 4.36 ERA in 456 innings, as a starter for Oklahoma City and a reliever for Minnesota, although about three-quarters of that time his home park was very pitcher-friendly.
9. Garrett Kline (28th by Minnesota): Washington traded for Kline during Season 5 and he has been a fixture in the big league rotation since early in Season 6. He's posted a 4.66 ERA in about 450 innings.
8. Dan Stechschulte (25th by N.Y. Mets): Still only 26 years old, Stechschulte is already in his fifth season as a big league reliever for the Phenomenauts. He's posted a 4.74 ERA in 431 innings, which is solid for an AL pitcher. He made the All-Star team in Season 8, when he saved 25 games and posted a 3.59 ERA in 52 innings.
7. Dennis Cohen (2nd by Boise): Another Season 1 first-rounder who has spent his whole career with the same organization, Cohen reached the majors in Season 4 and has been a fixture there except for a trip to the minors after he posted a 6.45 ERA in Season 6. That disaster aside, he's been a nice starting pitcher, although he's in the bullpen to start this season, with a sub-4.00 ERA three times. For his career, he's posted a 4.55 ERA in 749 innings.
6. Pat Bowen (11th by Milwaukee): The best of a pretty uninspiring crop of pitchers, Bowen made it to the majors in Season 5 and was strictly a reliever his first three seasons. Thet Twindyans have started using him as a starting pitcher the last two seasons. He's been very consistent so far in his career and has a 3.60 ERA in about 370 innings.
5. Sting Berger (24th by Syracuse): One of the drafts biggest steals, Berger debuted halfway through Season 5 and contributed immediately with a .916 OPS as a rookie. Now starting his fourth full season, Berger has a career line of .277/.331/.523 with 147 homers in 2,151 at-bats. Defensively, he's been a solid third baseman with seven plus plays and three minus plays in 4,200-plus innings, but more errors than you'd like to see. He made his one All-Star appearance in Season 7, when he posted an .897 OPS.
4. Clay Gibbons (14th by Chicago): Gibbons was one of the many prospects the Jayhawks sent packing in the early years before re-acquiring him midway through Season 8. For his career, he's been very similar to Berger but with a bit more power, hitting .279/.336/.536 with 142 homers in 2,032 at-bats. His best season was his first full year, when he posted a .910 OPS and hit 43 homers with 118 RBI in Season 6 for his only All-Star appearance. Defensively, Gibbons was a disaster early in his career when he saw time at shortstop (0:8 +/- ratio in 1,000-plus innings) and mediocre at second base (0:1 +/- ratio in 1,100-plus innings), but he's been solid at third base (2:0 +/- ratio in nearly 2,000 innings).
3. Brent O'Donnell (1st by Norfolk): O'Donnell got his first taste of the majors as a 20-year-old in Season 3, and he was up for good in Season 4. In four-plus seasons, he's hit .305/.373/.544 with 164 homers in 2,731 at-bats. His best year was Season 6, when he hit .322/.390/.574 with 37 homers and 102 RBI and also made the All-Star team and won the Home Run Derby. His defense in right field has been a bit spotty with four plus plays and nine minus plays in 4,200-plus innings.
2. Bill Cameron (4th by Albuquerque): Cameron made his debut early in Season 4 and was an instant star, posting a .952 OPS to win the Rookie of the Year award and the Silver Slugger award and make the All-Star team. He's been an All-Star all five of his big league seasons and has won three Silver Slugger awards at second base. He's probably the best offensive second baseman in Gleeman World history at this point, even when you account for his favorable home parks, with a .299/.359/.596 line in 2,713 at-bats. He's also hit 188 homers, driven in 634 runs and stolen 126 bases in 169 attempts (a 75% success rate). With a bat like his, you don't mind that his defense is mediocre (7:10 +/- ratio in 5,800-plus innings at second).
1. Pete Skinner (3rd by San Diego): If San Diego still had a team, it's fans would still be moaning about the one that got away. Skinner's the third-best hitter and best overall player from this draft, and the trade that sent him to Milwaukee was a fleecing. For his career, Skinner has posted a .291/.351/.549 line with 154 homers and 115 steals (in 158 attempts; 73%) in 2,705 at-bats. To go along with that, he's played excellent defense in center field, with 70 plus plays and only three minus plays in 5,700-plus innings. Skinner has made three All-Star teams (winning game MVP once) and taken home one Silver Slugger and one Gold Glove award. He won both of those awards in Season 7, when he posted a .961 OPS and made 19 plus plays with one minus play.
Biggest drop: Carson from 7th to 28th.
Biggest improvement: Berger from 24th to 5th and Kline from 28th to 9th
Best non first-rounder
Neil Byrne (taken in the 4th round, 141st overall, by Rochester): Just traded to the Yankees this offseason, Byrne had 4.5 solid seasons in Milwaukee. For his career, he has a .273/.337/.441 line in 1,691 at-bats. He hasn't been a great catcher (49 passed balls and a 76% success rate allowed on steal attempts), but the fact that he can hold his own behind the plate at all makes his bat a real value. He would probably slot in sixth or seventh among the first-rounders based on what he's done so far, which makes him an amazing steal.
Monday, November 24, 2008
The best pure "STUFF"
STUFF RATINGS
Like many, I use a home grown formula to rank and quantify pitchers. My favorite part of the formula is where I rank pitchers strictly on their "STUFF" - no measure taken of health, DUR, STA or any of that. All that counts is Control, Splits and Pitches (no velocity).
So the question is. With 1 batter to face, or perhaps 1 inning to get through, who according to my homegrown formula, has the best theoretical stuff? Who would I want up there? And how does it work out in practice?
The formula is fairly simple in some respects:
- Control is equally weighted with pitches
- L&R splits combine to weigh 1.5 times more than control or pitches do individually
And a bit more complicated in others:
- The formula weighs vs. L for lefties heavier than vs. R for lefties. Same for righties (vs. R is weighed heavier)
- vs. R in general is weighted more important than vs. L
NOTE: "STUFF" ratings use CURRENT ratings in ALL cases.
Top 5 "STUFF" ratings, ML:
1) J.D. Jackson, NY2
In theory: A righty with 100 control, 96 vs. R and a 91 P1 is absolutely killer. He might be the best pitcher I've ever had according to my formula. 77 vs. L and 78 P2 show potential weak spots.
In practice: A career 3.19 ERA, not the best. Suggests formula need some adjusting at the very high end. Or perhaps his PC does.
2) Haywood Towers, NY1
In theory: A righty with 99 vs. R, and 3 pitches ranked 84. 88 vs. L and 90 control also top notch.
In practice: A career 2.39 ERA as a starter. Probably the one guy most people would pick from this list if their lives were on the line.
3) Brian Murata, NY1
In theory: A righty with 95 control, 89/91 splits and 86/82 pitches. No weak spot whatsoever.
In practice: 2.13 career ERA, at very worst the 2nd guy to be picked from this list.
4) Tim Stark, NY1
In theory: The top lefty on the list. 92 control, 85/85 splits and a perfect 100 P1.
In practice: The third Yankee on the list, this one probably falls right into the top category with the other two. Only 2 stints in ALB keep his career ERA higher than one would think.
5) Don Masato, BOS
In theory: The 2nd best starter, and top lefty SP, The Don boasts few weaknesses as well. 86 control, 87/90 splits, 97 P1. Only possible drop off is two 75 pitches.
In practice: 3.28 career ERA, pretty damn solid. 2 Cy Young awards.
And now a little something for everyone
BY LEVEL
Top "STUFF", AAA (by position):
SP: Garrett Lorraine, WAS.
12th best STUFF amongst ALL SP's in the game.
RP: Shigetoshi Itou, VC.
Best STUFF amongst all MiL'ers. 25th overall.
Top "STUFF", AA (by position):
SP: Francisco Tatis, NY2
RP: Einar Gandarilla, MIN
Top "STUFF", High A (by position):
SP: Juan Arroyo, CH1
RP: Lance Cyr, SF
Top "STUFF", Low A (by position):
SP: Juan Bonilla, BUF
RP: Willie Manning, STL
By AGE
Top "STUFF", 19 years old:
SP: Juan Bonilla, BUF, Low A
Top "STUFF", 20 years old:
RP: Davey Jacquez, SJU, High A
Top "STUFF", 21 years old:
RP: Shigetoshi Itou, VC, AAA
Top "STUFF", 22 years old:
SP: Max Moehler, MNT, AAA
Top "STUFF", 23 years old:
SP: Vinny Wang, BUF, ML
BEST CURRENTLY UNASSIGNED:
Manny Ellenwood
WORST PITCHER GETTING PAID TO PITCH (2227th place):
Carlos Uribe, Low A, CHY
Like many, I use a home grown formula to rank and quantify pitchers. My favorite part of the formula is where I rank pitchers strictly on their "STUFF" - no measure taken of health, DUR, STA or any of that. All that counts is Control, Splits and Pitches (no velocity).
So the question is. With 1 batter to face, or perhaps 1 inning to get through, who according to my homegrown formula, has the best theoretical stuff? Who would I want up there? And how does it work out in practice?
The formula is fairly simple in some respects:
- Control is equally weighted with pitches
- L&R splits combine to weigh 1.5 times more than control or pitches do individually
And a bit more complicated in others:
- The formula weighs vs. L for lefties heavier than vs. R for lefties. Same for righties (vs. R is weighed heavier)
- vs. R in general is weighted more important than vs. L
NOTE: "STUFF" ratings use CURRENT ratings in ALL cases.
Top 5 "STUFF" ratings, ML:
1) J.D. Jackson, NY2
In theory: A righty with 100 control, 96 vs. R and a 91 P1 is absolutely killer. He might be the best pitcher I've ever had according to my formula. 77 vs. L and 78 P2 show potential weak spots.
In practice: A career 3.19 ERA, not the best. Suggests formula need some adjusting at the very high end. Or perhaps his PC does.
2) Haywood Towers, NY1
In theory: A righty with 99 vs. R, and 3 pitches ranked 84. 88 vs. L and 90 control also top notch.
In practice: A career 2.39 ERA as a starter. Probably the one guy most people would pick from this list if their lives were on the line.
3) Brian Murata, NY1
In theory: A righty with 95 control, 89/91 splits and 86/82 pitches. No weak spot whatsoever.
In practice: 2.13 career ERA, at very worst the 2nd guy to be picked from this list.
4) Tim Stark, NY1
In theory: The top lefty on the list. 92 control, 85/85 splits and a perfect 100 P1.
In practice: The third Yankee on the list, this one probably falls right into the top category with the other two. Only 2 stints in ALB keep his career ERA higher than one would think.
5) Don Masato, BOS
In theory: The 2nd best starter, and top lefty SP, The Don boasts few weaknesses as well. 86 control, 87/90 splits, 97 P1. Only possible drop off is two 75 pitches.
In practice: 3.28 career ERA, pretty damn solid. 2 Cy Young awards.
And now a little something for everyone
BY LEVEL
Top "STUFF", AAA (by position):
SP: Garrett Lorraine, WAS.
12th best STUFF amongst ALL SP's in the game.
RP: Shigetoshi Itou, VC.
Best STUFF amongst all MiL'ers. 25th overall.
Top "STUFF", AA (by position):
SP: Francisco Tatis, NY2
RP: Einar Gandarilla, MIN
Top "STUFF", High A (by position):
SP: Juan Arroyo, CH1
RP: Lance Cyr, SF
Top "STUFF", Low A (by position):
SP: Juan Bonilla, BUF
RP: Willie Manning, STL
By AGE
Top "STUFF", 19 years old:
SP: Juan Bonilla, BUF, Low A
Top "STUFF", 20 years old:
RP: Davey Jacquez, SJU, High A
Top "STUFF", 21 years old:
RP: Shigetoshi Itou, VC, AAA
Top "STUFF", 22 years old:
SP: Max Moehler, MNT, AAA
Top "STUFF", 23 years old:
SP: Vinny Wang, BUF, ML
BEST CURRENTLY UNASSIGNED:
Manny Ellenwood
WORST PITCHER GETTING PAID TO PITCH (2227th place):
Carlos Uribe, Low A, CHY
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Forced Into Early Retirement?? Pitchers Edition!
Retreads? Pulled off the scrap heap? AAAA player? Not the worst option I could imagine? Veteran Gamer who knows how to pitch to the score? And the dreaded "Innings Eater"? That is what I spent my Saturday night searching for (mostly in vain) as my attention drifted from the game of the week blowout. These are the pitchers that may be forced into an early retirement, but could possibly maybe have some value - or at least could be signed to a contract to cover an injury...
SP Johnnie Cooper - Worse pitchers than Johnnie in a major league uniform over the past 8+ seasons. Cooper has been remarkably consistent over the past 3 seasons, posting an ERA of 4.6x for the 3 seasons. His career 1.45 WHIP and 4.97 aren't horrible, and his season 5 performance drags things down a bit.
Cooper has been healthy since a minor shoulder inflammation in the minors during season 4. He's still only 29 and He could be a #5 starter at least on many teams, and can be had for about 770K (and falling!) for the season.
RP Jose Cruz - Jose just wants to play one more season. He'll gladly take the league minimum salary as the bullpen mop up man, since it is highly preferable to the real life janitorial mopping he will be required to do as he has already blown his 30+ million in major league earnings on a bad real estate deal. At age 38, he was able to post a non-vomit inducing .274/.351/.403 against with a 1.46 WHIP and a 3.51 ERA in 66.2 innings.
RP Hector Pena - Pena has been an absolute workhorse out of the bullpen over the last 4 years pitching between 70-90 games per season along with 94.0 to 121.1 innings per year over the same span. His rate stats didn't look so good last year, but most scouts think that he should be able to bounce back and post something closer to his season 5-7 numbers, at least for another year. A one-year, no risk contract for about 500k will can get you 90 or so league average innings.
RP Luis Villa - Luis Villa, he's not terrible! Villa could be a ROOGY or a second tier setup pitcher for a lot of teams. His career stats aren't great, and at first glance I thought he might have been overworked a bit during his career by a 'Dusty Baker' type manager. On further inspection, it appears that his highest two games/innings seasons were also his most productive. At age 29, I think he could latch on and get another chance, all for pocket change!
SP Johnnie Cooper - Worse pitchers than Johnnie in a major league uniform over the past 8+ seasons. Cooper has been remarkably consistent over the past 3 seasons, posting an ERA of 4.6x for the 3 seasons. His career 1.45 WHIP and 4.97 aren't horrible, and his season 5 performance drags things down a bit.
Cooper has been healthy since a minor shoulder inflammation in the minors during season 4. He's still only 29 and He could be a #5 starter at least on many teams, and can be had for about 770K (and falling!) for the season.
RP Jose Cruz - Jose just wants to play one more season. He'll gladly take the league minimum salary as the bullpen mop up man, since it is highly preferable to the real life janitorial mopping he will be required to do as he has already blown his 30+ million in major league earnings on a bad real estate deal. At age 38, he was able to post a non-vomit inducing .274/.351/.403 against with a 1.46 WHIP and a 3.51 ERA in 66.2 innings.
RP Hector Pena - Pena has been an absolute workhorse out of the bullpen over the last 4 years pitching between 70-90 games per season along with 94.0 to 121.1 innings per year over the same span. His rate stats didn't look so good last year, but most scouts think that he should be able to bounce back and post something closer to his season 5-7 numbers, at least for another year. A one-year, no risk contract for about 500k will can get you 90 or so league average innings.
RP Luis Villa - Luis Villa, he's not terrible! Villa could be a ROOGY or a second tier setup pitcher for a lot of teams. His career stats aren't great, and at first glance I thought he might have been overworked a bit during his career by a 'Dusty Baker' type manager. On further inspection, it appears that his highest two games/innings seasons were also his most productive. At age 29, I think he could latch on and get another chance, all for pocket change!
Friday, November 21, 2008
Top 30 Prospects-Season 9
Going in to Season 9, here is my view on the top 30 prospects in Gleeman world. Positional value is considered as is durability, health and makeup when determining the rankings. Though I generally give the benefit of the doubt with 19-21 year olds when it comes to ratings with an assumption they'll get within 3-4 of the rating, I am not so generous with 23-24 year olds who are not close to the projected ratings. For further discussion of the players, I can not recommend reading Base's positional ranking series strongly enough though we obviously disagree on some players. Without further ado, here are the top 30 rankings:
1. Livan Guzman-C-Philadelphia-The rare up the middle player who excels at both offense and defense. While this catcher has a little lower durability than desirable, his positional scarcity and excellence both at and behind the plate make him the top prospect in the game
2. Jack Leslie-P-Salem- Jack Leslie is the ideal non-glitch pitcher. However, his ~60 health rating makes him fall below Guzman as the top prospect in the game.
3. Phil Walbeck-CF-Washington-Given the lack of even replacement level offensive players at the CF position in general, Walbeck is the rare breed of player who will excel at offense and be good at defense in addition to good ratings in durability, health, and makeup
4. Garret Lorraine-P-Washington-Definitely a step down from Leslie in talent, Lorraine's stuff is a clear #2 from all other pitching prospects in Gleeman world. Health is a concern though.
5. Chili Easley-C-Washington-If his pitch calling were 20 points higher, he'd be the number 1 prospect in the game. However, he is excellent at every other facet of the game and has the ability to play every game of the year.
6. Taylor Turner-2B-Monterrey-Second baseman with his offensive repetoire do not exist in Gleeman world and questions about his defensive potential at 2B are the only thing preventing him from being in the top 3 in prospects in the game.
7. Alex Bravo-LF/2B-Las Vegas-Even though he is a LF or a butcher at 2B, Bravo still has a ton of value and justifies a ranking in the top 10 as he is one of the most dominant sluggers in the game with no obvious questions in durability, health, or makeup.
8. Juan Arroyo-P-Chicago-While a split against below 80 RHB keeps him from being in the top two tiers, Arroyo is top notch everywhere else and has no obvious health risks though his low durability also lowers total value.
9. Ozzie Hawkins-SS-Minnesota-Your first question may be, is he still a prospect? And the answer is yes. A week from now he'll be a fully developed shortstop with below average D but plus plus offense in the majors but for now he is still a prospect.
10. Paul Lorin-2B/3B-Tacoma-If you think Lorin is a shortstop, he is a top 3 prospect. However, I don't think he will be a reasonable defensive shortstop which reduces his value. Even as a 2B or 3B with plus defense, he is still tremendously valuable and a top 10 prospect.
11. Jimmie Peters-2B-NY Mets-He is definitely a slugger at the position but Turner's superb contact and more impressive "Other Three" (Dur/Health/Makeup) ratings put him a notch above Peters.
12. Jeff Stein-RF-Florida- Stein is the second most talented pure hitter next to Cliff Hawkins but his extra defensive value and better durability and health ratings outweigh his poor makeup rating.
13. Cliff Hawkins-1B-Tacoma-As a pure hitter, he is the most talented prospect in the game. However, his defensive utility is next to non-existant and his less than ideal durability rating further decreases his value below the top 10 in the game.
14. Vic Martinez-CF-Richmond-Martinez is a lesser version of Walbeck whose defense will be very good for the position and his offense will be great for the position. He should be a great building block for Richmond.
15. Max Moehler-SP-Monterrey-He also suffers from relatively poor splits against RHB but he is solid everywhere else including a wide variety of pitches. A higher stamina would be appreciated as well.
16.Raul Blasco-3B-San Antonio-Blasco will be a plus defensive and plus plus offensive player with tremendous hitting ability.
17. Albie Cruz-SP-Washington-His relatively low versus left rating does keep him from being a top tier pitcher and his control is below elite. However, his versus RHB rating is the second highest projected in the world amongst SP and pitchers with RHB splits in the 90 are almost always among the best in the league.
18. Shannon Perez-CF/LF-Los Angeles-He'll be one of the best offensive CF's in the game but a lot of his value will depend on if he becomes a competent CF. I think it will happen in a relative sense due to the poor CF crops coming up the pike but he will always be below average.
19. Jin-Chin Choi-RF-Anaheim-Choi will be a plus defensive player with great offense at the position. Though his offense is definitively below Stein's caliber. He'll still be a tremendous building block for the next generation of Anteaters.
20. Albert Brooks-RF-Washington-Very similar offensive player to Choi with a slightly different skill set but his defense is worse defense puts him a notch below Choi
21. Dave Worrell-2B-Washington-Although he will never be a 30-40 HR threat, Worrell will be an on base and doubles machine and will actually have good range at the postition unlike some other of the top 2B prospects along with being solid elsewhere on defense. His poor makeup is certainly a concern and drops him about 5 spots.
22. Woody Hume-3B-San Fransisco-Although his eye and contact could be better and there are some questions as to how much further he'll develop as he is already quite old for a prospect, his power potential is top notch and his defensive floor at the position is probably average. If he manages to continue developing at 25 and 26, he'd be about 10 spots higher on the list.
23. Chris Mason-RF-Salem-Mason is a slightly worse version of Brooks and Choi but he is still incredibly solid in his own right...pun very much intended.
24. Stuart Stahl-LF-San Antonio-Although his offensive potential is slightly lower than Guerrero's, he is a durable player that can probably go 162 games a season and his makeup and health are both plus which puts his overall value above Guerrero's
25. Tony Guerrero-LF-Philadelphia-He is definitely one of the better offensive players in the game but his limited defensive utility and poor health rating push him below the top tier of players.
26. Jimmie Estrella-RP-Chicago-A relief pitcher with zero weaknesses and strong durability, Estrella is the best RP in the game though his value would be slightly dimished as a closer since he has the ability to pitch 100+ innings a year.
27. Shigetoshi Itou-RP-Vancouver-His dur/stm ratings are ideal for a closer and the only question is his tendency to give up flyballs. However, his splits are the best in the game next to Jack Leslie and his first pitch is a knockout.
28. Chris Martin-SP-Los Angeles-A starting pitcher with very good ability against RHB and solid ratings elsewhere, Martin has no real weaknesses elsewhere and should be a solid pitcher for LA to build around
29. Robert Fikac-SP-Tacoma-Fikac is a top notch pitcher against lefties though his ability against RHB leaves one slightly wanting for increased skill. Otherwise, he is a durable pitcher with strong pitches and control who should be able to pitch north of 200 innings annually.
30. Dimitri Henderson-LF- Cheyenne- He'll be a strong LF though his hitting ability will be below Guerrero's and his overall durability will be below Stahl's.
1. Livan Guzman-C-Philadelphia-The rare up the middle player who excels at both offense and defense. While this catcher has a little lower durability than desirable, his positional scarcity and excellence both at and behind the plate make him the top prospect in the game
2. Jack Leslie-P-Salem- Jack Leslie is the ideal non-glitch pitcher. However, his ~60 health rating makes him fall below Guzman as the top prospect in the game.
3. Phil Walbeck-CF-Washington-Given the lack of even replacement level offensive players at the CF position in general, Walbeck is the rare breed of player who will excel at offense and be good at defense in addition to good ratings in durability, health, and makeup
4. Garret Lorraine-P-Washington-Definitely a step down from Leslie in talent, Lorraine's stuff is a clear #2 from all other pitching prospects in Gleeman world. Health is a concern though.
5. Chili Easley-C-Washington-If his pitch calling were 20 points higher, he'd be the number 1 prospect in the game. However, he is excellent at every other facet of the game and has the ability to play every game of the year.
6. Taylor Turner-2B-Monterrey-Second baseman with his offensive repetoire do not exist in Gleeman world and questions about his defensive potential at 2B are the only thing preventing him from being in the top 3 in prospects in the game.
7. Alex Bravo-LF/2B-Las Vegas-Even though he is a LF or a butcher at 2B, Bravo still has a ton of value and justifies a ranking in the top 10 as he is one of the most dominant sluggers in the game with no obvious questions in durability, health, or makeup.
8. Juan Arroyo-P-Chicago-While a split against below 80 RHB keeps him from being in the top two tiers, Arroyo is top notch everywhere else and has no obvious health risks though his low durability also lowers total value.
9. Ozzie Hawkins-SS-Minnesota-Your first question may be, is he still a prospect? And the answer is yes. A week from now he'll be a fully developed shortstop with below average D but plus plus offense in the majors but for now he is still a prospect.
10. Paul Lorin-2B/3B-Tacoma-If you think Lorin is a shortstop, he is a top 3 prospect. However, I don't think he will be a reasonable defensive shortstop which reduces his value. Even as a 2B or 3B with plus defense, he is still tremendously valuable and a top 10 prospect.
11. Jimmie Peters-2B-NY Mets-He is definitely a slugger at the position but Turner's superb contact and more impressive "Other Three" (Dur/Health/Makeup) ratings put him a notch above Peters.
12. Jeff Stein-RF-Florida- Stein is the second most talented pure hitter next to Cliff Hawkins but his extra defensive value and better durability and health ratings outweigh his poor makeup rating.
13. Cliff Hawkins-1B-Tacoma-As a pure hitter, he is the most talented prospect in the game. However, his defensive utility is next to non-existant and his less than ideal durability rating further decreases his value below the top 10 in the game.
14. Vic Martinez-CF-Richmond-Martinez is a lesser version of Walbeck whose defense will be very good for the position and his offense will be great for the position. He should be a great building block for Richmond.
15. Max Moehler-SP-Monterrey-He also suffers from relatively poor splits against RHB but he is solid everywhere else including a wide variety of pitches. A higher stamina would be appreciated as well.
16.Raul Blasco-3B-San Antonio-Blasco will be a plus defensive and plus plus offensive player with tremendous hitting ability.
17. Albie Cruz-SP-Washington-His relatively low versus left rating does keep him from being a top tier pitcher and his control is below elite. However, his versus RHB rating is the second highest projected in the world amongst SP and pitchers with RHB splits in the 90 are almost always among the best in the league.
18. Shannon Perez-CF/LF-Los Angeles-He'll be one of the best offensive CF's in the game but a lot of his value will depend on if he becomes a competent CF. I think it will happen in a relative sense due to the poor CF crops coming up the pike but he will always be below average.
19. Jin-Chin Choi-RF-Anaheim-Choi will be a plus defensive player with great offense at the position. Though his offense is definitively below Stein's caliber. He'll still be a tremendous building block for the next generation of Anteaters.
20. Albert Brooks-RF-Washington-Very similar offensive player to Choi with a slightly different skill set but his defense is worse defense puts him a notch below Choi
21. Dave Worrell-2B-Washington-Although he will never be a 30-40 HR threat, Worrell will be an on base and doubles machine and will actually have good range at the postition unlike some other of the top 2B prospects along with being solid elsewhere on defense. His poor makeup is certainly a concern and drops him about 5 spots.
22. Woody Hume-3B-San Fransisco-Although his eye and contact could be better and there are some questions as to how much further he'll develop as he is already quite old for a prospect, his power potential is top notch and his defensive floor at the position is probably average. If he manages to continue developing at 25 and 26, he'd be about 10 spots higher on the list.
23. Chris Mason-RF-Salem-Mason is a slightly worse version of Brooks and Choi but he is still incredibly solid in his own right...pun very much intended.
24. Stuart Stahl-LF-San Antonio-Although his offensive potential is slightly lower than Guerrero's, he is a durable player that can probably go 162 games a season and his makeup and health are both plus which puts his overall value above Guerrero's
25. Tony Guerrero-LF-Philadelphia-He is definitely one of the better offensive players in the game but his limited defensive utility and poor health rating push him below the top tier of players.
26. Jimmie Estrella-RP-Chicago-A relief pitcher with zero weaknesses and strong durability, Estrella is the best RP in the game though his value would be slightly dimished as a closer since he has the ability to pitch 100+ innings a year.
27. Shigetoshi Itou-RP-Vancouver-His dur/stm ratings are ideal for a closer and the only question is his tendency to give up flyballs. However, his splits are the best in the game next to Jack Leslie and his first pitch is a knockout.
28. Chris Martin-SP-Los Angeles-A starting pitcher with very good ability against RHB and solid ratings elsewhere, Martin has no real weaknesses elsewhere and should be a solid pitcher for LA to build around
29. Robert Fikac-SP-Tacoma-Fikac is a top notch pitcher against lefties though his ability against RHB leaves one slightly wanting for increased skill. Otherwise, he is a durable pitcher with strong pitches and control who should be able to pitch north of 200 innings annually.
30. Dimitri Henderson-LF- Cheyenne- He'll be a strong LF though his hitting ability will be below Guerrero's and his overall durability will be below Stahl's.
NL East Preview: Season 9
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Season 8: 107-55, NL East Champs, lost to the Chicago Jayhawks in the NLDS.
Notable acquisitions: Bill Bradley, Neil Byrne
Notable departures: Kelvim Lyons, Blake Canseco, Del Garcia
The Yankees might still be the class of the NL East, but they clearly have to look over their shoulder now; the difference in talent between the top 3 teams in the division has shrunk considerably. The Yankees brought in Neil Byrne to play catcher; he should have no problem topping Kelvim Lyon's Season 9 performance. The loss of Del Garcia and Blake Canseco shouldn't hurt the team; Canseco was nothing more than a low-leverage reliever, and the Yankees simply shuffled their in-house players to different positions to replace Garcia. The age of the pitching staff is more of a concern. Star pitchers Haywood Towers and Jay Cosby are 37 and 40, respectively, and elderly relievers Brian Murata and Tim Stark aren't spring chickens, either. These 4 players comprise the core of the pitching staff, and are clearly on the decline. It'll be interesting to see how long they can maintain their current level of production. Still, the hulabaloo concerning their immediate demise appears to be somewhat overblown; expect them to give back a few wins from last year, but still finish on top of the division.
Prediction: 101-61, NL East Champs
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Season 8: 92-70, Wildcard, lost to the Anaheim Anteaters in the NLCS.
Notable acquisitions: Rex Byrd, Trent Gordon, Marshall Wathan, Red Wainhouse (after ~ 28 games)
Notable departures: Seth Adams, Jackson Jenkins, Stu Butler, Oswaldo Dotel, Ross Livingstone, Troy Roberts
After a brief one season departure from the playoff race, the Jayhawks are back in business. Coming off of a successful year culminating in an appearance in the NLCS, GM thorku was anything but complacent, making several key deals that should improve the team. Veterans Trent Gordon and Rex Byrd were brought in to replace disappointing youngsters Stu Butler and Jackson Jenkins; they'll undoubtedly upgrade their respective positions this season. Losing relievers Dotel and Livingstone shouldn't be a big deal; Dotel was awful last year, and Livingstone will be replaced by shutdown closer Marshall Wathan. What could be problematic is the rotation; Miguel Abreu is good, but Miguel Torres is fragile and in decline, and pitchers Byrd, David Gates, and Al Trajano hardly scare anyone. Even with the addition of legendary hurler Red Wainhouse around the 30-game mark, the rotation is hardly strong for a playoff contender; they'll miss Seth Adams and Troy Roberts. However, the Jayhawk front office has always been notorious for being trigger-happy with trades; it wouldn't be surprising to see them make a few impact acquisitions before the deadline.
Prediction: 97-65, Wildcard
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Season 8: 82-80, 3rd place.
Notable acquisitions: Gerald Tomlinson, Derek Boone, Jesus Reynoso, Dale Rooney
Notable departures: Matty Montanez, Preston Grieve, Al Kirwan
Contenders for most of Season 8, the Bureaucrats faded down the stretch, finishing just above .500. Don't expect them to fall short again. In one of several blockbuster trades made this offseason, Washington acquired rubber-armed ace Gerald Tomlinson to front the rotation. They also signed aging starter Dale Rooney to slot in behind Goose Hayes and Garrett Kline. The biggest concern for the Bureaucrats, however, would be the sustainability of last year's offense. Grizzled veteran Jesus Reynoso probably won't match Matty Montanez's Season 8 production, but he should come close. More of a concern is replicating the numbers of MVP Al Iglesias and ROY Mitch Nunnally. Both are excellent players, to be sure, but expecting both of them to slug better than .650 would probably be foolish. That said, the team should outperform last year's, and play well enough to grab the final playoff spot in the NL.
Prediction: 91-71, Wildcard
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Season 8: 61-101, 4th place
Notable acquisitions: Lee Roundtree, Clayton Mack, Rick Goodwin, Jorel Shaw, Harold Harris
Notable departures: Luis Ortiz, Nerio Gibbons, Gary Wood, Andy Weaver
Last year, the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays decided to relocate to San Juan, losing their city and team name to the franchise formerly known as the Nashville Twang. Along the way, they somehow also lost the ability to play good baseball, going from a 98-win playoff team to a 101-loss disaster. The Rincons decided to sign a bunch of 1 year veteran patches to plug in holes, including former stars Lee Roundtree, Rick Goodwin, and Clayton Mack. Of course, all of their acquisitions are well past their prime, and no longer quality contributors, but they should still help San Juan avoid the 100-loss mark. Hopefully.
Prediction: 65-97, last in the division (duh)
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