Friday, May 6, 2016

Case Study on a Free Agency Decision

Here is a case study I wrote that walks the reader through a specific player decision in free agency.

Case Study

 

Friday, November 8, 2013

Stop Killing My Precious Team

This is a message intended for jasonbhag1, who is already taking my beloved Long Angeles Anteater franchise into the crapper. I'll spare the existing owners from sounding like jerks and do the job for them. They already attempted to advise you against big moves like this and you refused to listen. Your trade was stupid. Almost every new owner has learned this lesson, including me. Yet new owners continue to ignore veterans' sage advice. Dude, I left very explicit and helpful instructions on how to manage through the team, and I also wrote a sitemail that you haven't read that offered help if you needed it. But instead you trade two above average ML's with manageable short-term contracts for two duds, one of which is a 1B that is worse than your existing cheap 24 year-old Juan Romero (so where is the new guy going to play???) and the other is a guy that you could have picked up in the Rule 5 draft if you really needed to but won't ever be a ML SS and probably just shouldn't be on a ML team. Let's not forget that possibly both Cerda and Ozuna would be likely Type A/Type B candidates in FA (Cerda maybe a B, Ozuna likely an A or a for sure B) that would have netted you draft picks. Not awesome draft picks in all liklihood, but better than the S*** sandwich you just traded for. All of this for...$6M more in the Intl market? Are you f'ing kidding me? You are nowhere close to being able to afford the best Intls that would make this worthwhile. You traded two assets for basically nothing. Congratulations. Can't wait to see how else you take the franchise down the toilet. Schnoogens out.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

GW1 Hall of Fame proposal for S27

After not inducting anybody to the Hall of Fame in Season 25, we went back to the method we had been using in Season 26 and inducted four players. I propose that we continue using that method.

As we discussed in the world chat in past seasons, there are too many deserving players on the Hall of Fame ballot, especially since we can only vote for five. This causes some problems for people who enjoy the Hall of Fame and want to see it work. First, the more deserving players on the ballot, the less likely players get in, because people won't necessarily vote for the same deserving players at the same time. Second, the fewer players get in this season, the worse the situation will be next season, when it's likely that more deserving players will join the ballot.

So, in an effort to clear the backlog of deserving players, I'm proposing we do our best to induct five players this season. Below I'm going to list 13 players, with some brief stats (if you want to know more about them, click the link to their player card). To the right is a poll with the same 13 players. Please vote for the five players you think are most deserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame. Please only vote once. The poll will close at the end of the day Tuesday.

At that point, I'll post the names of the five players who got the most votes in the poll and propose that we all vote for those five players. Obviously, you don't have to. But if you want to clear the backlog of (what should be) sure Hall of Famers, this is the best way to do it.

Jesus Benitez, 1B, COF

.365 OBP, .506 SLG, .871 OPS in 8,401 at-bats
25 +, 4 - plays in 5,800 innings at 1B
8 +, 25 - plays in 5,800 innings at LF
1 plus, 20 - plays in 4,100 innings at RF

Alex Bravo, LF
, 1B
.355 OBP, .538 SLG, .893 OPS in 8,822 at-bats
77 +, 12 - plays in 16,400 innings at LF
30 +, 0 - plays in 2,000 innings at 1B

Abraham Davis, SP

3.75 ERA with 2,500 strikeouts in 3,550 innings

Lou Duff, LF

.349 OBP, .529 SLG, .878 OPS in 8,187 at-bats
43 +, 10 - plays in 12,300 innings at LF

Sid Fleming, 3B/CF

.325 OBP, .519 SLG, .844 OPS in 8,816 at-bats
43 +, 5 - plays in 6,562 innings at 3B
12 +, 46 - plays in 7,040 innings at CF

Rob Hutch, RP

3.16 ERA with 953 strikeouts in 1,123 innings

Crash Miller, RP

2.78 ERA with 2,332 strikeouts in 2,635 innings

Harry Navarre, CF

.361 OBP, .481 SLG, .842 OPS in 6,889 at-bats
45 +, 39 - plays in 12,584 innings at CF

Mitch Nunnally, C

.363 OBP, .529 SLG, .892 OPS in 6,502 at-bats
27.6 percent caught stealing rate in 10,884 innings at C

Marino Reyes, COF

.356 OBP, .445 SLG, .801 OPS in 9,584 at-bats
33 +, 16 - plays in 13,200 innings at RF
10 +, 19 - plays in 5,600 innings at LF

Sal Roosevelt, SP

3.89 ERA with 2,894 strikeouts in 4,110 innings

Richard Stocker, 1B

.387 OBP, .573 SLG, .960 OPS in 7,566 at-bats
16 +, 22 - plays in 13,380 innings at 1B

Clay Young, SP

3.62 ERA with 2,567 strikeouts in 2,971 innings

Monday, March 11, 2013

GW1 Hall of Fame proposal

After inducting nine players into the Hall of Fame in seasons 23 and 24, we didn't induct anybody in season 25 because we didn't use the method we had used in those two seasons. So, I'm reintroducing what we did in seasons 23 and 24.

As we discussed in the world chat in past seasons, there are too many deserving players on the Hall of Fame ballot, especially since we can only vote for five. This causes some problems for people who enjoy the Hall of Fame and want to see it work. First, the more deserving players on the ballot, the less likely players get in, because people won't necessarily vote for the same deserving players at the same time. Second, the fewer players get in this season, the worse the situation will be next season, when it's likely that more deserving players will join the ballot.

So, in an effort to clear the backlog of deserving players, I'm proposing we do our best to induct five players this season. Below I'm going to list 15 players, with some brief stats (if you want to know more about them, click the link to their player card). To the right is a poll with the same 15 players. Please vote for the five players you think are most deserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame. Please only vote once. The poll will close at the end of the day Wednesday.

At that point, I'll post the names of the five players who got the most votes in the poll and propose that we all vote for those five players. Obviously, you don't have to. But if you want to clear the backlog of (what should be) sure Hall of Famers, this is the best way to do it.

Jesus Benitez, 1B, COF

.365 OBP, .506 SLG, .871 OPS in 8,401 at-bats
25 +, 4 - plays in 5,800 innings at 1B
8 +, 25 - plays in 5,800 innings at LF
1 plus, 20 - plays in 4,100 innings at RF

Albert Brooks, COF

.365 OBP, .544 SLG, .909 OPS in 7,811 at-bats
2 +, 50 - plays in 9,800 innings at RF
6 +, 23 - plays in 5,700 innings at LF

Joel Croushore, RP

3.37 ERA with 2,397 strikeouts in 2,881 innings

Abraham Davis, SP

3.75 ERA with 2,500 strikeouts in 3,550 innings

Lou Duff, LF

.349 OBP, .529 SLG, .878 OPS in 8,187 at-bats
43 +, 10 - plays in 12,300 innings at LF

Sid Fleming, 3B/CF

.325 OBP, .519 SLG, .844 OPS in 8,816 at-bats
43 +, 5 - plays in 6,562 innings at 3B
12 +, 46 - plays in 7,040 innings at CF

Tony Guerrero, LF/1B

.354 OBP, .556 SLG, .910 OPS in 8,220 at-bats
31 +, 26 - plays in 11,700 innings at LF
76 +, 2 - plays in 6,100 innings at 1B

Al Iglesias, OF

.395 OBP, .556 SLG, .951 OPS in 8,100 at-bats
53 +, 3 - plays in 7,200 innings at RF
8 +, 23 - plays in 6,800 innings at CF
6 +, 6 - plays in 2,600 innings at LF

Ronald Levrault, 2B/LF

.390 OBP, .509 SLG, .899 OPS in 10,022 at-bats
33 +, 22 - plays in 12,800 innings at 2B
24 +, 20 - plays in 6,700 innings at LF

Aaron McGowan, RP

3.37 ERA with 1,072 strikeouts in 1,259 innings

Marino Reyes, COF

.356 OBP, .445 SLG, .801 OPS in 9,584 at-bats
33 +, 16 - plays in 13,200 innings at RF
10 +, 19 - plays in 5,600 innings at LF

Sal Roosevelt, SP

3.89 ERA with 2,894 strikeouts in 4,110 innings

Doug Rueter 2B/SS/CF

.339 OBP, .477 SLG, .816 OPS in 8,832 at-bats
20 +, 8 - plays in 6,795 innings at 2B
5 +, 21 - plays in 3,919 innings at SS
4 +, 11 - plays in 4,330 innings at CF

Richard Stocker, 1B

.387 OBP, .573 SLG, .960 OPS in 7,566 at-bats
16 +, 22 - plays in 13,380 innings at 1B

Clay Young, SP

3.62 ERA with 2,567 strikeouts in 2,971 innings

Sunday, September 2, 2012

GW1 Hall of Fame proposal

As we discussed in the world chat last season, there are too many deserving players on the Hall of Fame ballot this season, especially since we can only vote for five. This causes some problems for people who enjoy the Hall of Fame and want to see it work. First, the more deserving players on the ballot, the less likely players get in, because people won't necessarily vote for the same deserving players at the same time. Second, the fewer players get in this season, the worse the situation will be next season, when it's likely that more deserving players will join the ballot.

So, in an effort to clear the backlog of deserving players, I'm proposing we do our best to induct five players this season. Below I'm going to list 12 players, with some brief stats (if you want to know more about them, click the link to their player card). To the right is a poll with the same 12 players. Please vote for the five players you think are most deserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame. Please only vote once. The poll will close at the end of the day Tuesday.

At that point, I'll post the names of the five players who got the most votes in the poll and propose that we all vote for those five players. Obviously, you don't have to. But if you want to clear the backlog of (what should be) sure Hall of Famers, this is the best way to do it. Doing it this way last season, we were able to get four deserving players into the Hall of Fame.

Abraham Davis, SP

3.75 ERA with 2,500 strikeouts in 3,550 innings

Juan DeSoto, C

.415 OBP, .536 SLG, .951 OPS in 6,153 at-bats
182 passed balls, 19.7% success rate on throwing out base stealers in 12,800 innings at catcher

Sid Fleming, 3B/CF

.325 OBP, .519 SLG, .844 OPS in 8,816 at-bats
43 +, 5 - plays in 6,562 innings at 3B
12 +, 46 - plays in 7,040 innings at CF

Haywood Gipson, 2B/LF

.370 OBP, .521 SL, .891 OPS in 9,093 at-bats
17 +, 31 - plays in 13,291 innings at 2B
17 +, 6 - plays in 4,641 innings at LF

Darron Kirkland, 2B/3B/SS

.346 OBP, .498 SLG, .844 OPS in 9,025 at-bats
 29 +, 3 - plays in 5,294 innings at 2B
19 +, 2 - plays in 5,393 innings at 3B
3 +, 21 - plays in 5,945 innings at SS

Aaron McGowan, RP

3.37 ERA with 1,072 strikeouts in 1,259 innings

Darrin Murphy, 2B

.352 OBP, .494 SLG, .846 OPS in 7,749 at-bats
17 +, 38 - plays in 13,455 innings at 2B

Brent O'Donnell, RF

.377 OBP, .536 SLG, .913 OPS in 9,074 at-bats
8 +, 68 - plays in 13,121 innings in RF

Doug Rueter 2B/SS/CF

.339 OBP, .477 SLG, .816 OPS in 8,832 at-bats
20 +, 8 - plays in 6,795 innings at 2B
5 +, 21 - plays in 3,919 innings at SS
4 +, 11 - plays in 4,330 innings at CF

Richard Stocker, 1B

.387 OBP, .573 SLG, .960 OPS in 7,566 at-bats
16 +, 22 - plays in 13,380 innings at 1B

Kelvin Sullivan, SP

3.61 ERA with 2,731 strikeouts in 3,830 innings

Dusty Zoltan, SS

.326 OBP, .360 SLG, .686 OPS in 7,159 at-bats
136 +, 27 - plays in 16,527 innings at SS

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Blowing up the Bloggers

Everything must go! First come, first serve!

I've decided to blow up the reigning champions and trade my roster full of elite MLB talent for prospects and/or young big leaguers. Almost everyone is available, so I'm going to list most of them below along with a short description. I'm looking to make deals quickly, so trade chat, e-mail, or instant message me with interest as soon as possible. I'll delete players from the list as I trade them.

Trevor Christopher, 29-year-old SP: Arguably the best pitcher in GW2 history, with 95/95 splits, 93 control, five good pitches, and incredible numbers: 77-25 with .227 opponents' batting average and 2.62 ERA in 963 innings. Under 30, still arbitration eligible, and willing to sign long term for $6.75 million per season.

Miller Stein, 30-year-old CF/2B: Gold Glove center fielder with 97 power and 85 contact who hit .280/.356/.559 with 43 homers and 120 RBIs last season and .301/.365/.530 with 32 homers and 111 RBIs two seasons ago. One of the top 10 all-around players in GW2, still only 30 years old, and signed for two more seasons.

Neil Millwood, 30-year-old SP: Ace right-hander with 96 control and 95 split versus righties. Career 3.69 ERA and can throw 225-plus innings per season if needed. Also 9-0 with a 3.09 ERA in the playoffs. Still arbitration eligible and willing to sign long term for $7.5 million per season.

Harry Castillo, 30-year-old SS/2B/CF: Three-time Gold Glover at second base who's also capable of playing shortstop or center field. Career .276/.333/.506 hitter with 89 power, 88 contact, and 30-plus homers in four straight seasons. Still arbitration eligible and willing to sign long term for $7.3 million per season.

Harry Lackey, 33-year-old SP: One of the best left-handers in GW2 history, with a 3.12 ERA, 128-69 record, and .235 opponents' batting average in 323 career starts. Also 10-3 with a 3.47 ERA in the playoffs. Under contract for $7.5 million this season and willing to sign an extension at the same salary.

Hayes Dorsey, 29-year-old SS/2B/CF: My starting shortstop for the past six seasons and a career .282/.344/.395 hitter who makes very few errors defensively. Still arbitration eligible and willing to sign long term for $7.25 million per season.

Pedro Cruz, 30-year-old catcher: Low-durability catcher with an incredible bat and good glove who can get 300-400 plate appearances per season. Career .296/.355/.539 hitter and only wants $2.2 million per season in a long-term deal because of his low overall rating.

Otto Barkley, 29-year-old SP: Top-of-the-rotation starter with 85 control, 83/71 splits, 97 velocity, .240 opponents' batting average, and 3.70 ERA in 689 career innings. Still under 30 years old and arbitration eligible for the first time.

Matthew Laird, 28-year-old RF/LF/1B: Laird has never batted below .310 in a season and is a career .338 hitter with a .393 on-base percentage and .487 slugging percentage. Has a 95 split versus righties and 88 contact. Arbitration eligible for the first time and only asking for $1.5 million.

Herman Maxwell, 35-year-old RP: Elite reliever with 95 split versus righties, 89 control, .231 opponents' batting average, and 3.87 ERA in 696 career innings. Older, but no signs of slowing down yet and under contract cheaply.

Tuck Holder, 27-year-old 1B: Cheap, good-hitting first baseman who's arbitration eligible for the first time and asking for only $1.3 million. Career .291/.360/.481 hitter with even splits versus lefties and righties.

Reggie Harris: 28-year-old catcher: Low-durability catcher who crushes left-handers and plays very good defense. Career .300/.349/.524 hitter with 64 pitch-calling and very cheap to sign long term because of his low overall rating.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

GW1 Hall of Fame proposal

As we've been discussing in the world chat, there are too many deserving players on the Hall of Fame ballot this season, especially since we can only vote for five. This causes some problems for people who enjoy the Hall of Fame and want to see it work. First, the more deserving players on the ballot, the less likely players get in, because people won't necessarily vote for the same deserving players at the same time. Second, the fewer players get in this season, the worse the situation will be next season, when it's likely that more deserving players will join the ballot.

So, in an effort to clear the backlog of deserving players, I'm proposing we do our best to induct five players this season. Below I'm going to list 14 players, with some brief stats (if you want to know more about them, click the link to their player card). To the right is a poll with the same 14 players. Please vote for the five players you think are most deserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame. Please only vote once. The poll will close at the end of the day Friday.

At that point, I'll post the names of the five players who got the most votes in the poll and propose that we all vote for those five players. Obviously, you don't have to. But if you want to clear the backlog of (what should be) sure Hall of Famers, this is the best way to do it.

Abraham Davis, SP

3.75 ERA with 2,500 strikeouts in 3,550 innings

Juan DeSoto, C

.415 OBP, .536 SLG, .951 OPS in 6,153 at-bats
182 passed balls, 19.7% success rate on throwing out base stealers in 12,800 innings at catcher

Sid Fleming, 3B/CF

.325 OBP, .519 SLG, .844 OPS in 8,816 at-bats
43 +, 5 - plays in 6,562 innings at 3B
12 +, 46 - plays in 7,040 innings at CF

Darron Kirkland, 2B/3B/SS

.346 OBP, .498 SLG, .844 OPS in 9,025 at-bats
 29 +, 3 - plays in 5,294 innings at 2B
19 +, 2 - plays in 5,393 innings at 3B
3 +, 21 - plays in 5,945 innings at SS

Aaron McGowan, RP

3.37 ERA with 1,072 strikeouts in 1,259 innings

Darrin Murphy, 2B

.352 OBP, .494 SLG, .846 OPS in 7,749 at-bats
17 +, 38 - plays in 13,455 innings at 2B

Dennis Nelson, RF/LF

.368 OBP, .522 SLG, .890 OPS in 10,592 at-bats
16 +, 30 - plays in 16,866 innings in RF
4 +, 19 - plays in 4,394 innings in LF

Brent O'Donnell, RF

.377 OBP, .536 SLG, .913 OPS in 9,074 at-bats
8 +, 68 - plays in 13,121 innings in RF

Jumbo Rijo, C

.364 OBP, .590 SLG, .954 OPS in 8,175 at-bats
92 passed balls, 28.4% success rate throwing out base stealers in 12,090 innings at C

Doug Rueter 2B/SS/CF

.339 OBP, .477 SLG, .816 OPS in 8,832 at-bats
20 +, 8 - plays in 6,795 innings at 2B
5 +, 21 - plays in 3,919 innings at SS
4 +, 11 - plays in 4,330 innings at CF

Pete Skinner, CF

.338 OBP, .498 SLG, .836 OPS in 8,781 at-bats
207 +, 24 - plays in 19,315 innings at CF

Richard Stocker, 1B

.387 OBP, .573 SLG, .960 OPS in 7,566 at-bats
16 +, 22 - plays in 13,380 innings at 1B

Gerald Tomlinson, SP

3.95 ERA with 3,235 strikeouts in 4,032 innings

Dusty Zoltan, SS

.326 OBP, .360 SLG, .686 OPS in 7,159 at-bats
136 +, 27 - plays in 16,527 innings at SS

Friday, February 10, 2012

Gleeman World All-Time Franchise Standings

I compiled the numbers for each franchise through 21 seasons of Gleeman World. They are listed below, with teams separated by league and ranked by regular season winning percentage.

Here's a key for the abbreviations used:
W% = Winning Percentage
D = Division Titles
P = Playoff Appearances
L = LCS Appearances
W = World Series Appearances
$ = Championships
AL TEAMS         WIN    LOSS      W%    D    P    L    W    $
Fatboys 2151 1251 .632 16 21 14 7 4
Metropolitans 1915 1487 .563 11 14 10 7 5
Europeans 1910 1492 .561 5 15 2 1 1
Red Sox 1849 1553 .544 7 12 5 3 2
Heat 1717 1685 .505 7 9 1 0 0
Roustabouts 1716 1686 .504 5 8 2 0 0
Enrollers 1715 1687 .504 9 11 3 0 0
Boeheims 1686 1716 .496 0 6 1 1 0
Devil Rays 1674 1728 .492 7 7 0 0 0
Tumbleweeds 1632 1770 .480 0 2 0 0 0
Vacuums 1630 1772 .479 7 7 2 1 1
Pug Dogs 1581 1821 .465 1 2 0 0 0
A's 1558 1844 .458 7 8 0 0 0
Outlaw Reds 1503 1899 .442 2 4 2 1 0
Sky Sox 1468 1934 .432 0 0 0 0 0
Vandals 1467 1935 .431 0 0 0 0 0
NL TEAMS         WIN    LOSS      W%    D    P    L    W    $
Jayhawks 1928 1474 .567 6 15 7 3 0
Yankees 1845 1557 .542 8 14 4 3 0
Greys 1845 1557 .542 9 10 3 1 0
Anteaters 1831 1571 .538 11 12 7 3 1
Mafia 1826 1576 .537 13 14 4 3 0
Twins 1736 1666 .510 4 9 4 2 1
Bootleggers 1678 1724 .493 6 10 1 1 1
Comics 1674 1728 .492 4 6 2 0 0
Mashers 1656 1746 .487 1 5 2 0 0
Havoc 1649 1753 .485 4 4 1 0 0
Benjamins 1647 1755 .484 6 8 4 4 4
Nard Doggs 1624 1778 .477 1 4 1 0 0
Strohs 1595 1807 .469 3 3 0 0 0
Santa Marias 1591 1811 .468 3 3 0 0 0
Longspur 1582 1820 .465 3 5 1 0 0
Redbirds 1557 1845 .458 1 2 1 1 0
WINNING PERCENTAGE           PLAYOFF APPEARANCES
Fatboys .632 Fatboys 21
Jayhawks .567 Europeans 15
Metropolitans .563 Jayhawks 15
Europeans .561 Metropolitans 14
Red Sox .544 Mafia 14
Yankees .542 Yankees 14
Greys .542 Anteaters 12
Anteaters .538 Red Sox 12
Mafia .537 Enrollers 11
Twins .510 Bootleggers 10
Heat .505 Greys 10
Roustabouts .504 Heat 9
Enrollers .504 Twins 9
LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIPS         WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS
Fatboys 7 Metropolitans 5
Metropolitans 7 Fatboys 4
Benjamins 4 Benjamins 4
Yankees 3 Red Sox 2
Jayhawks 3 Anteaters 1
Mafia 3 Europeans 1
Red Sox 3 Vacuums 1
Anteaters 3 Gougers 1
Twins 2 Twins 1

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Lessons Learned in Player Value

With the new rule in place that considers any owner with more than 2 seasons of experience a "vet" with no veto protection from other owners, the best thing to do for newer owners is to help educate them. I recommend following these unofficial rules for the first 1-5 seasons:

1. Don't make any trades in seasons 1-2
a) only exception is if there is at least one experienced, unbiased owner that reviews it for you beforehand

2. Don't sign a FA to a contract >$5M/year for more than 3 years without asking an experienced, unbiased owner about it first

3. Don't release any player unless you have maxed out roster throughout your minor leagues. If you're at that point, release a guy with at 3+ years of experience with the lowest OVR rating (which is only useful until you get a handle on the true meaningful ratings)

4. If your fielding instructor is not willing to return, prepare to spend $3-$5M on a FI and try to get at least a 70 glove rating. FI's can be very expensive and they are crucial to defensive development.

Mistakes I've made:
First of all, in none of these cases did a more experienced owner blatantly rip me off. This is not intended to demonstrate owners acting against the league's best interests - none of these trades was "vetoable" nor should they have been. But in every case I made a decision that was based upon my non-complete knowledge of player values and the value of money...and all of these decisions were made when I had 6 or less seasons of experience with HBD. I guess I'm a slow learner?

Trade #1 (S3, my first full season of control):
I trade Hal Owen, a player with a 28 overall rating, for Russ Perkins, s SP making $8M in his last contract year. Perkins is immediately my best pitcher (my team was awful) and I was desperate for some SP. And a 28 overall player is awful, right???

Analysis: Perkins ended up pitching for me for just one season, going 14-13 in 211.2 IP with a 1.43 WHIP and 4.97 ERA. This isn't awful, but it's certainly not worth $8M. What I should have realized is that he was essentially a salary dump by the other team - they didn't want to get stuck paying $8M for him even just for one more season, so I should have asked for a minimum of $4M of salary coverage if I was going to take him on my team (and even if I was giving up nothing in return). In the other team's defense, he was coming off of a 1.28 WHIP/3.24 ERA season...so he appeared to be a much better pitcher than what his ratings would suggest.

So Perkins +$4M for a random minor leaguer would have been ok. But I didn't give up a random minor leaguer...I gave up an awesome pinch hitter for an NL team. Owen's overall rating is artificially low because his durability was 11. But his batting ratings were decent and he was still improving...and an 83 batting eye can be hard to find. In his ML career (all since the trade) he has hit .291/.384/.422 in 1411 AB's...and what tops it all off is that a player with this low of an overall rating is always willing to play for the bare minimum salary. In that sense, he's an even more valuable commodity than his good stats would suggest alone.

Conclusion: I traded for a pitcher who I paid $8M to throw 212 replacement-level innings in return for a career .806 OPS player who has made $3M total in 9 major league seasons.

Other comments:
This post already is longer than I anticipated and I need to install a car seat and put together a crib this afternoon, so I think I'll leave this trade as the lone example. But here a few "Cliff's Notes" regarding other uninformed mistakes I've made:

1. #1 starters are the most valuable commodity, followed closely (or some would say equal to) by CF and SS with a solid glove who can hit for a .850+ OPS. If you're trading a future #1 starter for a SS who you think fits the bill, make sure the SS is at least 82+ in all defensive categories and that his batting splits are at least >65 (these are generic, personal guidelines). I made this mistake with the Mesa-Millwood trade in season 7 (Edgar Mesa and Neil Millwood).

2. Like mentioned above, solid defensive players who can hit are valuable. I pulled the trigger on Haywood Enders way too early and didn't get a decent return (Roberto Cortez). Cortez is available for trade, by the way! He'd be a great #5 starter or long reliever for a non-contending team. But even when I traded for him he was clearly projecting to be no better than a #4 starter and I gave up a guy who could be plugged in at 2B or 3B for a long career and be counted on to produce decent stats (especially at 2B). Some guys have bad seasons...it was unfortunate that Enders' career with me started that way.

Again, this post is not intended to "call out" the owners on the other sides of the trades...it's to illustrate the small errors in judgment that can result in the degradation of one's overall franchise value. I'll quote Ernest Hemingway from The Sun Also Rises: when asked how he went bankrupt, a man replies "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." The same could be said for your beloved HBD franchise.

Caveat Emptor.

GW2 prediction

Here's my prediction for the players involved in the trade that sickchangeup hates.

In Season 12, Ismael Coronado will post at least a .685 OPS and will have more plus plays on defense than minus plays.

At least once by the end of Season 16, Sammy Matos and Everth Quintero will have combined for at least 90 innings pitched and an ERA under 4.00.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

GW1 Hall of Fame voting

Season 14

Red Wainhouse - 29 votes
Fritz Rushford - 28 votes
Vic Alfonzo - 24 votes
Billy Ray Prince - 19 votes

Season 15

Haywood Towers - 26 votes
Geoffery Bates - 22 votes
Brian Murata - 20 votes

Season 16

Hector Santos - 22 votes
Edwin Hogan - 21 votes
Toby Joseph - 19 votes

Season 17

Bryan Beckett - 30 votes
Trey Fonville - 22 votes
Ruben Crespo - 18 votes

Season 18

Don Masato - 26 votes

Season 19

Bernard Rhodes - 25 votes
Gary Long - 22 votes

Season 20

Matt Governale - 23 votes
Chipper Velandia - 22 votes

Also getting votes: Nash McCartin 11, Ronald Garcia 9, Bill Cameron 7, Max Leary 5, Dusty Zoltan 4, Thumper Neagle 4, Nigel Whang 3, Lou Gil 3, Brad Jefferson 3, Doug Rueter 2, Tim Stark 2, Darron Jenkins 2, R.J. Granados 2, Darwin Stocker 2, J.D. Jackson 1, Hector Hernandez 1, Derek Page 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Ralph Jackson 1, Richard Maxwell 1, Dennis James 1

Season 21

Nash McCartin - 24 votes
Ronald Garcia - 23 votes
Bill Cameron - 17 votes

Also getting votes: Max Leary 9, Darron Jenkins 7, Darron Kirkland 7, Doug Rueter 7, Thumper Neagle 5, Lou Gil 4, Dusty Zoltan 3, Nigel Whang 2, Nate McMillan 1, R.J. Granados 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Brad Jefferson 1, Dennis James 1, Ted Simpson 1, Charlie Stevens 1, Derek Page 1, John Carroll 1, Ricardo Rincon 1.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Hall Of Fame Candidates: Season 19

In an effort to help everyone evaluate the Hall of Fame candidates for Season 19, here are their career numbers simplified for easy comparisons (along with my analysis). I've included all pitchers with 1,000 innings and all hitters with 6,500 plate appearances.
PITCHER              IP      ERA
Gary Long 3000 3.50
Benny Molina 2700 4.00
Max Leary 2600 3.50
Jayson Ellis 2100 4.00
Miguel Torres 1800 4.00
Billy Stovall 1600 3.50
Tim Stark 1250 3.25
J.D. Jackson 1050 3.25
My take: Gary Long should be a no-brainer pick as one of the truly elite pitchers in Gleeman World history, but Max Leary is under-appreciated. Leary has the same ERA as Long in about 13 percent fewer innings and is clearly ahead of the other starter candidates. Tim Stark and J.D. Jackson are among the top relievers in Gleeman World history, but I'm not very keen on voting for relievers when they have only half as many innings as various starter candidates.
HITTER               PA      OPS     POS
Bernard Rhodes 10300 .925 1B/LF
Darrin Murphy 8400 .850 2B/1B
Bud Jones 8300 .850 LF/RF
Luis Cervantes 7700 .875 1B/DH
Ralph Jackson 7700 .875 DH/1B
Thumper Neagle 7600 .900 DH/C
Nate McMillan 7400 .850 DH/1B
Brooks Zaun 7300 .825 RF/3B
Bono Hughes 7300 .775 3B/RF
R.J. Granados 7000 .875 2B/LF
Darwin Stocker 7000 .850 RF/LF
Ted Simpson 6900 .900 1B/DH
Dennis James 6900 .850 SS/3B
Jose Morales 6700 .825 LF/RF
Nigel Whang 6700 .800 CF/LF
Tony Cortes 6600 .825 SS/3B
My take: As one of three Gleeman World players with 3,000 hits Bernard Rhodes is a no-brainer even more so than Long on the pitching side. After that it gets a bit muddled, as the ballot is filled with first basemen, designated hitters, and corner outfielders with OPS in the .850-.900 range. I tend to think middle infielders and center fielders are too often overlooked, so I'd highlight Darrin Murphy as being very underrated with the second-most plate appearances of any candidate and a bat that compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates while playing mostly second base (albeit not particularly well).

Dennis James' bat also compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates, yet he played third base and shortstop. Having only 6,900 plate appearances hurts his case, but his .850 OPS was significantly more valuable than all those .850-.900 OPS from 1B/LF/RF. Jose Morales has gotten substantial support in the past despite only 6,700 plate appearances and he's a solid enough candidate, but I'm not sure why anyone would rank him above Nigel Whang. Morales had an .800 OPS and 600 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a left fielder, while Whang had an .800 OPS and 500 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a center fielder. Their offensive contributions are nearly identical and once you factor in defense and positional adjustments Whang should clearly be ahead.

My ballot: Bernard Rhodes, Gary Long, Max Leary, Darrin Murphy.

Monday, May 9, 2011

NL Season 18 Preview Followup

I was curious as to how successful I was on my preseason predictions. So here goes:

NL North:
Milwaukee Twindyans
Prediction: 98-64, NL North Champions
Actual: 109-53, NL North Champions
Difference: +11

Columbus Santa Marias
Prediction: 64-98, 3rd place
Actual: 56-106, 4th place
Difference: -8

Cleveland Redbirds
Prediction: 91-71, WC
Actual: 95-67, WC
Difference: +4

Hartford Dark Blues
Prediction: 53-109, 4th place
Actual: 63-99, 3rd place
Difference: +10


NL East:
Chicago Jayhawks

Prediction: 94-68, NL East Champions
Actual: 77-85, 3rd place
Difference: -17 (oops)

New York Yankees
Prediction: 90-72, maybe WC
Actual: 97-65, NL East Champs
Difference: +7

Scranton Nard Doggs
Prediction: 71-91, 3rd place
Actual: 80-82, 2nd place
Difference: +9

Washington Bureaucrats
Prediction: 60-102, 4th place
Actual: 67-95, 4th place
Difference: +7


NL South:
Oklahoma City Twins
Prediction:
85-77, NL South Champs
Actual: 80-82, 3rd place
Difference: -5

Iowa City Comics
Prediction: 78-84, 4th place
Actual: 74-88, 4th place
Difference: -4

St. Louis Greys
Prediction: 83-79, 2nd place
Actual: 87-75, NL South Champs
Difference: +4

Nashville Havoc
Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place
Actual: 84-78, 2nd place
Difference: +3

Average Difference Between Prediction and Actual: 7.4 wins
Worst Prediction: -17 (Chicago Jayhawks)
Best Prediction: +3 (Nashville Havoc)

Sunday, April 10, 2011

S9 AL West Preview

Los Angeles Anteaters of Irvine

Season 8 Record: 94-68, AL West Champ

Key Additions: Harry Cora, Wesley Cook

Key Losses: Glenn Simmons, Raul Trevino
The four-time reigning AL West champs and now 2 years removed from the franchise’s first World Series appearance, the Anteaters are in a position of having reached their likely peak and now hope to contend for as many years as possible with much of the same roster from the last few seasons. While they have remained steady (92, 93, and 94 wins in S6-S8), the rest of the division is showing signs of strength and it will likely be difficult to improve on their win total.

The strength of this team remains its pitching, with Pablo Jose coming back from a horrific injury, defending Cy Young Darwin Martin, and former Cy Young winner Adam Ducey. With Felipe Machado rounding out the normal 4-man rotation, this is still one of the best staffs in baseball. The bullpen welcomes the aforementioned Cook along with team veteran and fellow stamina-starved stud Gerald Ward. Unfortunately, the defense is average at best, especially with iron gloved Edgar Mesa at SS. All things considered, last year’s team 3.55 ERA/1.29 WHIP should be within reach.

The lineup returns with minor changes, the most notable with new addition and likely leadoff man Harry Cora replacing the departed Glenn Simmons in LF. This team led the Majors in HR’s last year (277 to the Bloggers’ 263), but its issue remains getting on base, with the team posting a.257/.318/.439 line last season. Signing Barry Peterson to a 4-year $42.7M contract helped them solidify 3B for the future, and they still have lineup anchors Moises Martin and Philip Wolf. Patrick Osbourne delivered a phenomenal performance last season in his platoon role against LHP, but it will be hard to repeat. This season LA is relying on their investment in Cora (2 yrs $8.2M) to improve their OBP, but it will likely be more of the same…relying on the long ball to give their pitching enough to work with.

Outlook: They could make another run at the World Series and are a likely playoff team, but the competition will be thick in the AL this season. Worst case is 85 wins and just missing the wild card.

Predicted division finish: 1st

Cheyenne Morning Star

Season 8 record: 82-80, 4th in AL West

Key additions: Pascual Roque, Carlos Valentin, Miguel Alcantara

Key losses: Don Murray, Cliff Carter, Edgar Bautista, Al Baerga

Cheyenne hit a lull last year, seeing their win total fall from 86 and just barely missing the playoffs in S7 to 82 in S8. They’ve made up huge ground throughout the last few years as they were a 61-win team as recently as Season 6. The last couple of offseasons have featured some heavy free agent investments that coincide with the arrival of some of the team’s promising young stars. The last two offseasons they committed an astounding $242.5M over 17 seasons to 8 different players (an average of $14.3M/season per player), with another $55M/3 yrs contract that began in S7. So they are playing with $300M of FA’s and some pretty decent youth…does the math finally add up to a playoff appearance?

The staff is led by inning-eaters Steve Barrett and Brady Murray, the aging but effective Andrew Burks, and Alex Donahue. A 2-year $36M deal brought S8 Fireman of the Year Roque into the bullpen to join Del Cubillan to round out a squad that should improve on the 4.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP from last year. With the experienced rotation, this team could fare well in what would be the franchise’s first playoff series.

Slugger Albert Ortega anchors the lineup, and Cheyenne is hoping for a bounce back season from Steve Coleman and still boast RHP platoon slugger Walt Kelly. They are trying to replace Baerga and Bautista’s production with Valentin and Alcantra, and it’s probably a push. Cliff Carter and his .888 OPS will be missed the most, and Ed Howell has seen his best years. They won’t set any scoring records, but if Coleman and Valentin rediscover themselves they could overcome the .261/.326/.431 team batting stats from last season. Or perhaps the biggest question is how soon we’ll see future stud Kelly Johnson or fellow prospect Miguel Padilla. Is their time now?

Outlook: This is very likely the season they break through for their first playoff berth, and the promotion of Johnson could help ensure that. Cheyenne has certainly opened their wallet to try to buy success, so anything short of the playoffs would be a major disappointment.

Predicted division finish: 2nd (Wild Card)


Colorado Springs Eternal

Season 8 record: 85-77, 2nd in AL West

Key additions: Bob Gilmore, Lee Cone

Key losses: Yamid Felix, Bill Castillo, Bob Walbeck

You’ve got to tip your cap to what jnewfry has accomplished in the first 8 seasons – his team has never been worse than .500. The continued competitiveness has helped keep this division so strong through the years, but has the success helped or hurt this team? 3 of the last 4 years Colorado Springs has won between 81 and 85 games, which hasn’t gotten them in the playoffs and hasn’t quite allowed them to rebuild either. This team is getting older (17 players are older than 30) so it will be decision time very soon…do they make another run at the playoffs or hit the rebuild button?

The rotation is anchored by veterans Cole Perkins, Josh King, Antone Hill, and Alex DeSoto. None of them are shutdown starters, but they are also pretty consistent. Delino Holt is one of the better relievers in the league, but there is not a lot of depth here. The team’s 4.04 ERA/1.32 WHIP from last year will likely be delivered again as there hasn’t been a lot of movement in the staff overall.

The loss of Bob Walbeck looms large…he’ll be difficult to replace in CF. The addition of Lee Cone (5 yrs, $40.6) is the biggest change, and if he can return to his career .817 OPS rather than the .697 of last year, he could help improve on the team’s overall .261/.326/.417 line. All-Star SS Eric Montgomery also returns, and Billy Karnuth is a dependable DH. However, I’m not buying Earl Mulholland ever doing anything better than the .733 OPS he posted last season, and at 1B and 3 yrs/$13.2M he’s probably been overextended with this latest contract. And Ricardo Rincon’s last season is not likely to be repeated again, either. All things considered, this offense looks to be in for a year of decline.

Outlook: Colorado Springs will be competitive, but unless they get career years out of some of their key players they may struggle to stay in the playoff race the entire season. It still seems like extending the streak of winning seasons to 9 is a good possibility, but the aging roster and lack of prime prospects means these days may be numbered.

Predicted division finish: 3rd

Albuquerque From "Life Goes On"
Season 8 record: 84-78, 3rd in AL West

Key additions:None

Key losses: Luis Cruz, Paul Jackson, William Tamura, Junior Spencer

It appears that Albuquerque is heading into a transition, which is clearly evident by the lack of any key signings in the offseason while letting a few major contributors from last year’s team walk in free agency. Star slugger Paul Bang is on the Trade Block along with Peaches Washington and SP Peter Larson. How long will each of them remain with the team? It always seems that Robot gets the most out of his players, as this team was counted out in each of the last few years but remained in contention the whole way through, so while this team review may come off as negative, you never know what this owner can pull off.

The starting pitching is definitely the worst of the AL West. The team put up a cumulative 4.37 ERA/1.36 WHIP last season, but the fact that it wasn’t worse is attributable almost entirely to the bullpen. With Junior Spencer and Luis Cruz gone from the rotation, the only bright spots the aforementioned tradeable Larson, and younger pitchers Hamlet Donovan and Alberto Ontiveros. All-Star closer Travis Lewis returns, but with guys like Cesar Piedra on the roster, will he even be necessary?

As for the lineup, if Bang and Washington get traded, this team will struggle to score runs, and it will signal the official countdown starting to the day stud prospect Lou Lindsey arrives in the majors. The returning J.T. Timlin helped this squad hit a combined .267/.324/.413 – they can hit for average, but there’s not a lot of pop. Being conservative in the FA market has meant that while there isn’t a lot of talent here, it’s relatively young and inexpensive, which will allow for some flexibility in the coming years. And if the aforementioned trades occur, this team could find itself with a sub $40M roster quickly.

Outlook: Count these guys out for contention this season – I think Robot has already squeezed as much as he could out of these guys. But they are positioned well for a rebuild with some valuable veterans and plenty of cap room. We probably won’t see the entire AL West at or above .500 this year, but this team won’t embarrass the division either.

Predicted division finish: 4th

Sunday, March 27, 2011

GW1 Hall of Fame - Correct Positions

I find it mildly annoying that player positions for the Hall of Fame are listed as what the AI thought the player should be playing when he retired, instead of say something logical, obvious, and simple to program like say... which position said player accumlated the most innings (or more starts or relief appearances for pitchers) or his career.


So I went ahead and did it myself, no love for non-first base infielders!


Catcher



First Base



Second Base

none


Third Base

none

Shortstop

none


Left Field




Center Field




Right Field



Starting Pitcher








Relief Pitcher

Friday, March 18, 2011

GW2 Noteworthy Games

No-hitters

Season 1

Jayson Bagwell: 1 BB, 5 K in Iowa City's 2-0 win over Atlanta, 3/30/09PM2
Bucky Kelly: 5 BB, 6 K in Louisville's 10-0 win over Oakland, 4/28/09PM2

Season 2

Bucky Kelly: 3 BB, 4 K in Louisville's 6-0 win over Wichita, 8/25/09AM

Season 3

Kenny DiSarcina: 4 BB, 5 K in Minnesota's 6-0 win over Boston, 10/13/09PM2
Earl Buckley: 1 BB, 6 K in Oakland's 3-0 win over Seattle, 10/25/09PM2
Zeus Webster: 3 BB, 6 K in Nashville's 6-0 win over Scranton, 11/13/09PM
Charles Franco: 4 BB, 6 K in Fargo's 6-0 win over Atlanta, 11/29/09PM2 (postseason)

Season 4

None

Season 5

Neil Castillo: 2 BB, 9 K in Helena's 3-0 win over Vancouver, 5/5/10AM

Season 6

Posiedon Lamb (8.1 IP) and Carlos James (0.2 IP): 3 BB, 3 K (all by Lamb) in San Antonio's 6-0 win over Philadelphia, 7/14/10PM

Season 7

Ed McMillan (perfect game): 7 K in Austin's 1-0 win over Minnesota, 12/15/10PM2 (postseason)

Season 8

Ariel Andujar (perfect game): 5K in Helena's 1-0 win over Baltimore, 1/3/11PM
Pat McGee: 1BB, 7K in Pittsburgh's 10-0 win over Nashville, 2/18/11AM

Cycles

Season 1

David Mora: 4-for-5, 2 R, 4 RBI in Chicago Manual of Style's 16-1 win over Trenton, 4/12/09AM

Season 2

Chan Dong: 4-for-5, 3 R, 6 RBI in Trenton's 14-8 win over Los Angeles, 7/11/09AM

Season 3

Eric Allen: 4-for-6, BB, 2 R, 5 RBI in Toledo's 9-7 win over Florida, 10/13/09AM
Cliff Carter: 4-for-8, 3 R, 2 RBI in Hartford's 26-16 win over Kansas City, 10/29/09PM
Hal Price: 4-for-5, 3 R, 2 RBI in Louisville's 11-2 win over St. Louis, 11/22/09PM

Season 4

Roger Barclay: 4-for-6, 2 R, 2 RBI in Fargo's 11-3 win over Iowa City, /28/10AM

Season 5

Cliff Carter: 4-for-5, R, 3 RBI in St. Louis' 6-1 win over Helena, 5/7/10PM

Season 6

Guy Nicholas: 4-for-5, 4 R, 5 RBI in Austin's 12-1 win over Wichita, 7/5/10AM

Season 7

None

Hit milestones

Season 1

6 - Jeromy Wingo 6-for-6, 2B, 5 R, 3 RBI in Honolulu's 23-5 win over Chicago Apple Hurlers, 4/16/09AM

Season 2

6 - Brendan Borland 6-for-7, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI in Scranton's 6-5 win over Mexico City, 7/1/09AM

Season 3

6 - Quentin Cepicky 6-for-6, 3B, 2 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI in Hartford's 13-12 loss to Kansas City, 10/31/09AM

Season 4

7 - Timo Smith 7-for-7, 2B, HR, BB, 6 R, 8 RBI in San Antonio's 36-1 win over Nashville, 1/24/10PM
6 - Hal Price 6-for-6, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI in Louisville's 12-4 win over Austin, 2/7/10PM
6 - Alex McGee 6-for-7, 4 HR, 4 R, 7 RBI in Durham's 27-7 win over Nashville, 1/26/10AM
6 - Bartolo Lee 6-for-7, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 R, 11 RBI in Oklahoma City's 37-7 win over Nashville, 1/16/10PM

Season 5

5 - Accomplished at least 15 times

Season 6

5 - Accomplished at least 10 times

Season 7

6 - Parker Lennon 6-for-6, 3 HR, SB, 5 R, 6 RBI in St. Louis' 15-1 win over Nashville, 10/19/10PM

Season 8

6 - Blake Kennedy 6-for-7, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI in Helena's 8-7 win over Madison, 2/27/11PM2
6 - Alberto Crespo 6-for-6, 2 2B, 4 HR, BB, 6 R, 10 RBI in Austin's 20-3 win over Oakland, 1/15/11PM

HR milestones

Season 1

4 - Carlos Martinez 4-for-4, 3 BB, 5 R, 8 RBI in Fargo's 28-9 win over Wichita, 4/14/09PM2

Season 2

4 - Norman Sutton 5-for-5, 2B, 4 R, 8 RBI in Florida's 11-4 win over Philadelphia, 7/11/09PM
4 - Emilio Moya 5-for-5, 1B, 5 R, 7 RBI in Los Angeles' 13-1 win over Florida, 8/12/09PM2

Season 3

4 - Albert Gonzalez 4-for-6, BB, 5 R, 8 RBI in Durham's 26-5 win over Hartford, 10/14/09PM

Season 4

4 - Alex McGee 6-for-7, 4 R, 7 RBI in Durham's 27-7 win over Nashville, 1/26/10AM

Season 8

4 - Bryan Butler 4-for-5, 4 R, 8 RBI in Fargo's 11-6 win over Scranton, 1/11/11PM
4 - Alberto Crespo 6-for-6, 2 2B, BB, 6 R, 10 RBI in Austin's 20-3 win over Oakland, 1/15/11PM
4 - Omar Andrus 4-for-4, 4 R, 5 RBI in Austin's 11-9 win over Pittsburgh, 3/4/11PM

RBI milestones

Season 1


9 - Vic Javier 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2 R in New York's 14-0 win over Augusta, 3/30/09PM2

Season 2

9 - Ted Wakeland 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2 R in Louisville's 18-8 win over Boston, 8/13/09PM2

Season 3

9 - Matthew Forbes 3-for-4, 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 R in Fargo's 19-3 win over Nashville, 10/18/09AM

Season 4

11 - Bartolo Lee 6-for-7, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 R in Oklahoma City's 37-7 win over Nashville, 1/16/10PM

Season 5

8 - Pedro Nunez 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2 R in Fargo's 14-1 win over Atlanta, 4/29/10PM
8 - Hamlet Henry 3-for-3, 2 HR, SF, 3 R in Washington's 12-6 win over San Antonio, 5/5/10AM

Season 6

8 - Nicholas Hollingsworth, Jack Hoffman, Orel Sierra, Miguel Carrara

Season 7

8 - Louie Martin, Sammy Barrett, Benji Flores

Season 8

10 - Alberto Crespo 6-for-6, 2 2B, 4 HR BB, 6 R in Austin's 20-3 win over Oakland, 1/15/11PM


Stolen base milestones

Season 4

6 - Bobby Towers 4-for-5, 2B, 3 R, 2 RBI in Iowa City's 9-3 win over Los Angeles, 1/11/10AM

Strikeout milestones

Season 1 (NL)

13 - Whitey Nichting in Wichita's 13-8 loss to St. Louis, 5/18/09PM2
13 - Glen Herzog in Baltimore's 11-3 win over Fargo, 4/13/09PM2

Season 1 (AL)

12 - Jon Cedeno in Iowa City's 5-0 loss to Texas, 4/2/09AM
12 - Louie Jackson in Atlanta's 7-0 win over Seattle, 5/17/09AM
12 - Marc Rolison in Los Angeles' 4-3 win over Wichita, 4/22/09PM2

Season 2 (NL)

13 - Darby Butler in Louisville's 8-4 win over Minnesota, 8/8/09PM

Season 2 (AL)

11 - 6 pitchers (Salem's Peter Larson, New York's Antone Hill, San Antonio's Pat Tipton, Atlanta's Jayson Bagwell, Durham's Willie Castilla, Chicago's Wilfredo Martin)

Season 3 (NL)

12 - 4 pitchers (Louisville's Bob Trammell, St. Louis' Dante Walker, Louisville's Bucky Kelly, Baltimore's David Flores)

Season 3 (AL)

12 - 5 pitchers (Colorado Springs' Lon Cashman, Salem's Cole Perkins, Florida's Cliff Perez, N.Y. Yankees' Antone Hill, Kansas City's Jon Cedeno)

Season 4 (NL)

13 - Sam Ganzel in Austin's 3-1 win over Boston, 1/30/10PM

Season 4 (AL)

13 - Pat Tipton in Toledo's 2-0 win over Kansas City, 1/12/10PM

Season 5 (NL)

13 - Jon Cedeno in Vancouver's 1-0 win over Wichita, 5/13/10PM

Season 5 (AL)

14 - Antone Hill in Washington D.C.'s 7-3 win over Boise, 5/22/10PM

Season 6 (NL)

12 - Andy Atchley in Rochester's 11-0 win over Baltimore, 7/8/10PM2
12 - Jumbo Gil in Oakland's 3-0 win over Atlanta, 8/13/10PM2

Season 6 (AL)

14 - Clint Clark in Iowa City's 5-2 win over Cheyenne, 8/21/10PM2
13 - David Telemaco in Philadelphia's 2-1 win over Toledo, 7/6/10PM2

Sunday, February 27, 2011

NL South Preview, Season 18


Season 17 Record: 90-72, Division Champions, lost to the New York Yankees in the Play-in Series
EXP W%: .536 (projected out to 87-75 over 162 games)
Notable acquisitions: LF Marino Reyes, P Moe Farley
Notable departures: P Vic Lopez, 1B Juan Lira, CF Bernie Crespo, LF Mendy Knight

In one of the most predictable player pairings (try saying that three times fast) in Gleeman World history, the Twins traded for the speedy Marino Reyes. He'll fit right in as the best baserunner on the fastest team in baseball (7 different players stole 30+ bases last season). It won't amount to a ton of runs, but it might be enough to support the National League's top run prevention unit. The pitching staff doesn't walk anybody (2nd fewest issued in the NL), the defense converts balls in play into outs (fewest hits allowed, below average strikeout rate), and they don't give up the long ball (once again, 2nd fewest allowed in the NL). Part of that is from the park, but most of that is simply from the design of the team. You know the Twins will always struggle to score, and that they'll always prevent runs. The problem here is that they've had stretches where their offense wasn't just bad, but awful (not 2010 Mariners awful, but awful enough), to the point where no level of pitching could salvage them. This squad is better than that, but I'm not altogether convinced that they won't regress a bit.

Prediction: 85-77, Division Champions



Season 17 Record: 82-80, tied for 2nd place
EXP W%: .483 (78-84)
Notable acquisitions: P Alex Rojas, P Grant Westbrook, 1B Charles Shibata
Notable departures: CF Branch Laker, SS Leonardo Nen, P Happy Magadan, C Damion Chen, P Davey Jacquez

Last season, the Comics made a 13 game jump over S16 to post their first winning season in 10 (Gleeman World) years. Despite this, they still look to be somewhat of a long shot in contending this season, even within a weak division. Much of that stems from the curious decision to trade away CF Branch Laker, the team's best position player, in return for a couple of relievers. Granted, the pen looks to be much improved as a result, and Laker didn't hit all that well last season. However, Eduardo Oliva's glovework in CF is much worse than Laker's, and the move might force someone like Ken Petrov into action; while a fine bench player, he's stretched as an everyday option. The acquisition of Shibata is a bit strange as well. While a fine hitter, Shibata is exactly what Iowa City doesn't need: a left-handed hitter defensively limited to 1B (Jamie Zheng, Nash McCartin). The rotation is top-heavy; Fausto Rosado is a stud, and The Other Rosado (as he'll forever be known as) was outstanding last year; although scouts are still waiting for the other shoe to drop, it's hard to deny his performance so far. Alan Womack and Walt Aldred, however, have both proven to be filler, and Hideki Sakamoto is coming off of an awful rookie season. One would think Sakamoto is a prime bounce-back candidate; on the other hand, The Other Rosado looks primed for a date with Ms. Regression. As it stands, the team should be competitive. Just not competitive enough.

*By the way, how are Sean Watkins and Vern Ryal still in HiA?

Prediction: 78-84, 4th place



Season 17 Record: 82-80, tied for 2nd place
EXP W%: .529 (86-76)
Notable acquisitions: 1B Chipper Velandia
Notable departures: 2B Solly Alexander, P Del Martin

The inevitable changing of the guard in St. Louis is right around the corner; faces of the franchise John Carroll and Bronson Ritz are clearly closing in on the twilight of their careers, nearly ready to be replaced by the kiddie corps. There's not much to say about this team as opposed to last season's team; the same familiar faces are still there, though it's not clear how much Carroll or Ritz have left at this point. The problem here is that for the first time in franchise history, the Greys don't have any star power to augment their modestly talented roster. The end result is a vanilla squad that should hold their own, but don't have much hope for anything more than that. Maybe young 1B Tuck Mathis rebounds from a disappointing rookie campaign. Maybe Carroll and Ritz have one last hurrah in them. Maybe a few of their players find God and clean living and decide to have career seasons. It's all the Greys can hope for this season. As noted above, the Greys do have some young talent in the minors (C Warren O'Connor and IF Homer Bird look ready). Should they be called up, they could easily make the division race more interesting. Regardless of who comes out of this division, though, that team will likely be the worst playoff team in the NL.

Prediction: 83-79 (if O'Connor + Bird are promoted), 2nd place



Season 17 Record: 79-83, 4th place (as the Monterrey Conquistadores)
EXP W%: .494 (80-82)
Notable acquisitions: 3B Vladimir Pichardo, P Clark Murphy
Notable departures: P Danny Brower, P Rigo Gutierrez, P Max Moehler, 3B Jim Kirk

The surprising resignation of Monterrey's longtime GM evelandz23 coincided with the relocation of the Conquistadores. As a result, the franchise, now in Nashville, has been re-branded as the Havoc, run by scottlaz, the recently-deposed head honcho of the now-Santa Cruz Slugs. The Havoc fit right in with the rest of the division; they're hardly a bad team, but they don't figure to scare anyone, either. Losing Max Moehler doesn't figure to hurt as badly as one might think, as he was largely ineffective last season. Vladimir Pichardo should be an upgrade over recently departed Jim Kirk, too. Furthermore, the franchise is only a season removed from back-to-back 90+ win campaigns, with much of the same core group of players. It's hardly a great team, but it's not outrageous to think that they can compete. Just don't expect too much past that.

Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place