Here's the next installment in the series looking at the best players at each position.
10. Ernest Crawford, Florida Cottonmouths: Iowa City's Giomar Mercado just misses the list this season because he's too big a risk at this point. The best-case scenario is that he gives you 120 quality games. But with such poor health, there's a very real chance that he'll suffer a major injury at some point and really mess up your catching situation.
Crawford's not a great catcher, but he's solid and safe. He posted a .352 OBP in each of his first two seasons in the majors, but he significantly increased his power from a .388 SLG in season 4 to a .477 SLG in season 5. He rates well across the board offensively, and there's no reason to think his offensive surge in season 5 was a fluke.
Defensively, he calls a good game and has a fairly strong arm, although it's not always on target. He's definitely at least average when it comes to overall defense compared to the rest of the league's starting catchers.
9. Lewis Stephens, San Antonio Sting: Stephens is a good hitter, but the reason he's not higher on this list is that he's not really a catcher. He plays behind the plate almost exclusively, but he's a terrible pitch caller and his throwing arm has gotten very weak.
Still, he does have a career OBP around .390 and a SLG around .490. Even in somewhat off years in seasons 4 and 5, he still put up OPS marks near .800, and he's absolutely killing the ball so far this season. He doesn't have much power, but his contact is excellent, his batting eye is solid and he destroys right-handed pitching.
8. Bernie Guerrero, Minnesota Fatboys: Guerrero might be higher on this list if not for a terrible .667 OPS in season 5. Now he has to prove that was a one-year aberration, and he's off to an excellent start. Even with the terrible output last season, Guerrero still has a career OBP of .350 and a career SLG of .480. His contact isn't that good, but he has nice power, is very good against both righties and lefties and has an excellent batting eye.
Guerrero is solid across the board defensively, with better ratings than many starting catchers in every category. His durability isn't great, but it's good enough that he can play up to 135-140 games if pushed.
7. Derek Page, Boston Red Sox: Although he wasn't quite as bad as Guerrero, Page also needs to prove he can bounce back from an down season after posting a .740 OPS in season 5. Before that he had back-to-back seasons with an OPS above .950 and three in a row above .900. Page has solid contact and a good batting eye to go with very good power, and he's very good against both righties and lefties.
Page doesn't have much range and his glove is slightly below average, but he's a solid signal caller and his arm is decent. He's also developed into a workhorse capable of catching 140-150 games without getting too fatigued.
6. Brian Wilson, Anaheim Anteaters: Wilson would have fared much better on this list before age began robbing him of much of his ability. In season 5, he posted or tied career lows in games (143), at-bats (434), runs (64), hits (131), doubles (17), homers (18), RBIs (61), walks (53), batting average (.302), OBP (.381), SLG (.475) and OPS (.856), and it's been a steady decline since season 1 in many of those categories.
Wilson still has very good contact and patience, but his power has disappeared almost entirely. He's still good against righties, and he was never particularly strong against lefties. Wilson's throwing arm has also become pretty weak, and his durability and health have declined significantly.
In fact, depending on how much more he declines before season 7 begins, this may be the last season he's even qualified to be a starting catcher.
5. Joey Robinson, Boise Mashers: Robinson has gotten on base just over 37 percent of the time each of the last two seasons while posting SLGs of .490 and .484. He doesn't have any real weak spots on offense, and his contact and ability to hit lefties are both very good.
Robinson is a good but not elite hitter, and the same can be said for his defense. He has very nice range, a solid arm and decent pitch-calling skills. Combine good but not great offense, good but not great defense and the durability to play 150-plus games a season, and you have a top-three overall catcher.
4. Jerome Perkins, Kansas City Monarchs: Perkins has improved as a hitter every season since his major league debut in season 2, culminating in his .363/.413/.497 line in season 5. He's not likely to hit .363 again, but there's no reason Perkins can't hit .330/.390/.460 or something similar, making him a very valuable hitter. Perkins has excellent contact and dominates against lefties, and he has a solid batting eye. He doesn't have much power and he struggles some against righties.
Defensively, Perkins is a mediocre pitch caller, but he has a very strong and fairly accurate arm (he's thrown out 30 percent of runners trying to steal on him in his career, which is quite good in this league). He's also durable enough to play 140-150 games without issue.
3. Josh Wagner, Montreal Grand Orange: Wagner has been an excellent hitter in four of his five seasons. Season 5 was actually the worst of those four, and he posted a .303/.393/.507 line. For his career, he has an OBP around .390 and a SLG around .525. Wagner's offensive value comes from very good power and a near-perfect batting eye.
Defensively, Wagner has a good throwing arm, but his pitch calling isn't anything special. And his biggest problem is that his durability limits him to 120-130 games a season.
2. Stan Lennon, New York Metropolitans: Lennon's offensive value comes from his perfect batting eye, which has helped him post an OBP of at least .415 every season (he was at .432 in season 5). With that kind of on-base ability, it doesn't really matter that he has almost no power, hitting just 53 homers in nearly 2,000 career at-bats. Lennon has good contact and while he struggles some against righties, he's deadly against lefties.
The biggest concern for Lennon is his throwing arm, which is very weak. Base runners have already been successful on 14 of 16 attempts against him. He does call a good game, and he's still durable enough that he can catch 140-plus games without wearing down.
1. Richard Maxwell, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: If Maxwell had average durability, he'd not only be the best catcher in the league, he'd be one of the five best position players in the league. Except when Edwin Hogan catches, Maxwell is far and away the best offensive catcher in the league. And Hogan's advantage with the bat isn't even as pronounced as it first appears since Maxwell plays in a neutral park while Hogan plays half his games in the league's best hitters park.
Maxwell's .296/.361/.621 line was the worst of his career, as he put up OPS marks around 1.060 in both seasons 3 and 4 (and he's already tearing the cover off the ball in season 6). Maxwell has a good batting eye, but the key is his amazing combination of contact and power. And while he's only decent against lefties, he's a monster against righties.
Defensively, Maxwell is solid with his range and glove and he has a strong and accurate arm. He also calls a decent game. The only issue is the durability, which limits him to no more than 120 games in a season unless you really push him.
Still, I'd rather use my backup catcher an extra 20 or so times a season and have the catcher with easily the most ability in the league playing the rest of the time. And if you're a playoff team, Maxwell's value is even higher because his durability isn't nearly as big an issue with the extra off days built in.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Top Five Designated Hitters
This is the first in a series looking at the best players at each position in Gleeman World. I'm starting with designated hitters because it's the easiest, since it only includes half the league.
Throughout the series, I'll be looking at who is the best player right now, not who has had the best career. Essentially, if you had to pick one player to play this position for your team for this season and this season only, who would it be? That's what these rankings will be about.
5. Daryle Petrick, Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims: This was a tough choice between Petrick and Buffalo's Raymond Speaker, but Petrick definitely has the edge. Petrick's offense is based on great contact and a perfect batting eye. He posted a .942 OPS in season 5, but that overlooks how valuable he really was because you can't tell from that number that he reached base 43 percent of the time.
In his career, Petrick has drawn 400 walks while only striking out 175 times, an astounding ratio. He doesn't have a great deal of power, but he doesn't need it with his on-base skills. The only thing that hurts him is a durability that limits him to 130-140 games a season.
4. Thumper Neagle, Cheyenne Tackleberries: You could make a case for putting the next three guys on this list in any order, but Neagle lands in the No. 4 spot just because of his health. It doesn't appear to have caught up with him so far, but it will some season. Even if you assume Neagle's a better hitter than the next two on the list, which is no sure thing, why would you take a greatly increased risk of injury for a very slight increase in production?
Neagle was solid his first 1.5 seasons in the major leagues, but he didn't show his true ability until season 4. He blasted 58 homers and posted a 1.055 OPS that season, and then he followed it up with a 65-homer, 1.005 OPS campaign in season 5.
Neagle's a little more inconsistent than the other hitters on this list because he has a poor batting eye -- the only one of the five, in fact, who doesn't have a very good batting eye. He makes up for it by being very good or excellent everywhere else.
3. Hector Soto, Boston Red Sox: Soto made a quick ascension to the majors, signing as an international prospect midway through season 2 and making his big league debut late in season 3. He posted a .951 OPS in season 5, and that was actually a good bit below his output in season 4, when he was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up. In each of his two full seasons, he's topped 40 homers, 115 runs, 115 RBIs, a .310 batting average, a .370 OBP and a .575 SLG.
Soto doesn't have elite ability in any area on offense, although he is excellent against lefties, but he doesn't have a real weakness either. He could be better against righties, but he hits for good contact and has very good power and patience.
2. Jumbo Rijo, Minnesota Fatboys: Rijo may end up being primarily a catcher down the road, but he spends most of his time at DH right now, and he's a darn good one. After destroying minor league pitching for 3.5 seasons, Rijo broke into the majors for 36 games in season 4 and posted a .962 OPS. He was nearly as good in season 5, putting up a .942 OPS to win the Rookie of the Year award.
Rijo's very good across the board offensively, and he's better than very good in a couple places. He's excellent against left-handed pitchers and he has immense power, as shown by his 50-homer rookie season.
1. Edwin Hogan, Albuquerque Isotopes: Hogan has caught all four games this season, but he hasn't been a full-time catcher since season 3 and he's played 394 games at DH and 265 at catcher in his career, so we're listing him as a DH this season. Whatever position he's listed at, there's no doubting his hitting ability. Hogan's .342 batting average in season 5 was the worst of his career, but he still won his fifth consecutive AL batting title. And he posted a 1.098 OPS, giving him five consecutive seasons with an OPS above 1.085 (and five straight with an OBP above .440).
Hogan has very good contact and power, but the real strength of his game comes from his near-perfect batting eye and the fact that he's turned himself into a flawless hitter against both righties and lefties. If Gleeman World is ever going to see a .400 hitter, it's probably going to be Hogan.
Throughout the series, I'll be looking at who is the best player right now, not who has had the best career. Essentially, if you had to pick one player to play this position for your team for this season and this season only, who would it be? That's what these rankings will be about.
5. Daryle Petrick, Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims: This was a tough choice between Petrick and Buffalo's Raymond Speaker, but Petrick definitely has the edge. Petrick's offense is based on great contact and a perfect batting eye. He posted a .942 OPS in season 5, but that overlooks how valuable he really was because you can't tell from that number that he reached base 43 percent of the time.
In his career, Petrick has drawn 400 walks while only striking out 175 times, an astounding ratio. He doesn't have a great deal of power, but he doesn't need it with his on-base skills. The only thing that hurts him is a durability that limits him to 130-140 games a season.
4. Thumper Neagle, Cheyenne Tackleberries: You could make a case for putting the next three guys on this list in any order, but Neagle lands in the No. 4 spot just because of his health. It doesn't appear to have caught up with him so far, but it will some season. Even if you assume Neagle's a better hitter than the next two on the list, which is no sure thing, why would you take a greatly increased risk of injury for a very slight increase in production?
Neagle was solid his first 1.5 seasons in the major leagues, but he didn't show his true ability until season 4. He blasted 58 homers and posted a 1.055 OPS that season, and then he followed it up with a 65-homer, 1.005 OPS campaign in season 5.
Neagle's a little more inconsistent than the other hitters on this list because he has a poor batting eye -- the only one of the five, in fact, who doesn't have a very good batting eye. He makes up for it by being very good or excellent everywhere else.
3. Hector Soto, Boston Red Sox: Soto made a quick ascension to the majors, signing as an international prospect midway through season 2 and making his big league debut late in season 3. He posted a .951 OPS in season 5, and that was actually a good bit below his output in season 4, when he was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up. In each of his two full seasons, he's topped 40 homers, 115 runs, 115 RBIs, a .310 batting average, a .370 OBP and a .575 SLG.
Soto doesn't have elite ability in any area on offense, although he is excellent against lefties, but he doesn't have a real weakness either. He could be better against righties, but he hits for good contact and has very good power and patience.
2. Jumbo Rijo, Minnesota Fatboys: Rijo may end up being primarily a catcher down the road, but he spends most of his time at DH right now, and he's a darn good one. After destroying minor league pitching for 3.5 seasons, Rijo broke into the majors for 36 games in season 4 and posted a .962 OPS. He was nearly as good in season 5, putting up a .942 OPS to win the Rookie of the Year award.
Rijo's very good across the board offensively, and he's better than very good in a couple places. He's excellent against left-handed pitchers and he has immense power, as shown by his 50-homer rookie season.
1. Edwin Hogan, Albuquerque Isotopes: Hogan has caught all four games this season, but he hasn't been a full-time catcher since season 3 and he's played 394 games at DH and 265 at catcher in his career, so we're listing him as a DH this season. Whatever position he's listed at, there's no doubting his hitting ability. Hogan's .342 batting average in season 5 was the worst of his career, but he still won his fifth consecutive AL batting title. And he posted a 1.098 OPS, giving him five consecutive seasons with an OPS above 1.085 (and five straight with an OBP above .440).
Hogan has very good contact and power, but the real strength of his game comes from his near-perfect batting eye and the fact that he's turned himself into a flawless hitter against both righties and lefties. If Gleeman World is ever going to see a .400 hitter, it's probably going to be Hogan.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Power Rankings: Pre-Season Edition
1. Minnesota Fatboys: The 2-time defending champs exchange Pat Badilla for Gerald Kim, and return almost everyone else. Almost the entire team is still in its prime, and the organization has plenty of talent in the minors.
2. New York Metropolitans: No one wants to face that pitching staff in the postseason.
3. Chicago Jayhawks: Even without Andres Silva, the rotation and lineup are still among the best in the league.
4. Milwaukee Twindyans: Young stars Pat Bowen and Pete Skinner are only getting better, and veterans Vic Alfonso and Hector Santos are still among the best in the game.
5. New York Yankees: Will taking Andres Silva away from the division favorites, along with a full season of Bernard Rhodes, be enough to close the gap?
6. Florida Cottonmouths: The offense is solid, if unremarkable. Can Ismael Molina and the rest of the pitching staff (2nd last year in RA) replicate Season 5's success?
7. Iowa City Comics: Few teams rely on one player as much as the Comics count on Chipper Velandia. Was last season a fluke, or has he established a new level of performance?
8. Anaheim Anteaters: Fritz Rushford is clearly in a state of decline, but the core of the team is still intact, and top prospects Mark Sakamoto, Jackson Jenkins, and Haywood Gipson are all one step away from The Show.
9. Boston Red Sox: If the pitching staff could put together even an average season, that alone would vault this team far higher in the rankings. Don't hold your breath.
10. Albuquerque Isotopes: The team with the best Season 5 EXP Win % from the division look like the favorites despite losing veteran starters Juan Gonzales and Jay Looper.
11. Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims: The much-anticipated arrival of Sting Berger should help the offense. He better, since the bottom of the rotation (Howie Delasandro and Joe Corbin) looks shaky.
12. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Charlie Stevens probably won't be this good next year, but on the flip side, Patrick Doster probably won't be this bad.
13. Kansas City Monarchs: Adding both Dale Rooney and Ben Cox should help; if Troy Roberts puts Season 5 behind him, this is a team to watch.
14. Oklahoma City Twins: A full season of Tony Hernandez gives the team a true middle-of-the-order slugger. The offense, however, still looks weak, and the team still looks like it's one move away from the playoffs. Hurry back, Nate McMillan.
15. Buffalo Europeans: A dangerous team; they have the best farm system in the American League, and a young, still-improving pitching staff that's already very good. They might contend this year; they'll definitely contend in the near future.
16. St. Louis Greys: This year's team looks almost exactly like last year's. No reason to expect markedly different results.
17. Santa Cruz Amigos: Despite their success last year, they look unlikely to match that win total. Benj's offseason recap has the details as to why. Furthermore, they outperformed their expected wins by 3, a seemingly small but significant number.
18. Philadelphia Phenomenauts: The defense up the middle remains a problem. Troy Stern, the only defensively credible SS option, can't hit, so Adam Stanley, despite his shortcomings at SS, might get the lion's share of the time. Terry O'Connor is a butcher at 2B as well. At least the rotation is improved with the signing of Otis Upshaw.
19. Montreal Grand Orange: Trading for SP Karim Unamuno last year helps, but the NL East is just too tough for Montreal to make a run.
20. Boise Mashers: The pitching isn't bad, and the lineup doesn't have any bad hitters; the problem here is that Boise doesn't have enough players who are clearly better than league average to become a winner.
21. Los Angeles Hangars: Diego Nunez and Danny Brower are a good 1-2 punch, but the team may be better served by a firesale than a push for the division.
22. Sioux Falls Gunslingers: Scot Rhodes might be a good candidate for NL ROY, and the lineup has serious pop. However, a good number of the pitchers may struggle to throw strikes, which could lead to some ugly innings.
23. Nashville Twang: Control could be an issue; 4 of the 5 projected SP have at least occasional bouts of wildness. Wiki Perez is still a force to be reckoned with, but scouts are whispering that his power is starting to go.
24. Cheyenne Tackleberries: They have several excellent players (Thumper Neagle, Stump Jordan, and Eugene Ramirez), and several others that are championship-caliber starters. The team's main weakness is defense; they have a glut of players who would make fine 3rd basemen, but lousy SS's, and they don't have a single player who could handle SS.
25. Vancouver Vigilantes: Billy Ray Perry is much better than his Season 5 would lead you to believe, and Brandon Sheffield, Douglas Coleridge, Joseph Wang, and Darrin Murphy are all young and talented. This team is certainly capable of being much better than it was last year.
26. Pittsburgh Pug Dogs: The pitching looks surprisingly decent, but don't expect the offense to give them any run support, especially without Bernard Rhodes. The team is actively in the process of rebuilding, so this squad could change very soon.
27. Monterrey Conquistadores: Still rebuilding; there aren't many impact players on this squad, and they don't figure to be competitive for at least a couple more seasons.
28. Tacoma Downpour: Ken James and Jim Brown are legitimately good hitters, and it won't be long until Steven Piper is called up. Vasco Santiago is also very talented. But Tacoma also has one of the worst defensive units in baseball, and a bushel of below replacement-level players that will drag the team down.
29. Washington D.C. Bureaucrats: Forget the major league team. The AAA team might actually be a better ballclub. This is clearly a lost season for the Bureaucrats, but the near future looks very bright; Washington has as much young talent in the minors as any organization in baseball.
30. Richmond Roustabouts: Losing Lee Roundtree and Pat Badilla won't help, and there's no one to replace them. Jimmie Torres and Luis Cervantes can hit, and Scott Watkins' bat plays against righties, but they're three lone bright spots on an otherwise forgettable roster.
31. Colorado Springs Silver Stars: This team has very few, if any, players that one could conceive having a season better than league-average. The offense is terrible, and the pitching staff doesn't look quite so good outside of Seattle.
32. San Antonio Sting: Not much to say. Godspeed, Ronald Levrault.
2. New York Metropolitans: No one wants to face that pitching staff in the postseason.
3. Chicago Jayhawks: Even without Andres Silva, the rotation and lineup are still among the best in the league.
4. Milwaukee Twindyans: Young stars Pat Bowen and Pete Skinner are only getting better, and veterans Vic Alfonso and Hector Santos are still among the best in the game.
5. New York Yankees: Will taking Andres Silva away from the division favorites, along with a full season of Bernard Rhodes, be enough to close the gap?
6. Florida Cottonmouths: The offense is solid, if unremarkable. Can Ismael Molina and the rest of the pitching staff (2nd last year in RA) replicate Season 5's success?
7. Iowa City Comics: Few teams rely on one player as much as the Comics count on Chipper Velandia. Was last season a fluke, or has he established a new level of performance?
8. Anaheim Anteaters: Fritz Rushford is clearly in a state of decline, but the core of the team is still intact, and top prospects Mark Sakamoto, Jackson Jenkins, and Haywood Gipson are all one step away from The Show.
9. Boston Red Sox: If the pitching staff could put together even an average season, that alone would vault this team far higher in the rankings. Don't hold your breath.
10. Albuquerque Isotopes: The team with the best Season 5 EXP Win % from the division look like the favorites despite losing veteran starters Juan Gonzales and Jay Looper.
11. Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims: The much-anticipated arrival of Sting Berger should help the offense. He better, since the bottom of the rotation (Howie Delasandro and Joe Corbin) looks shaky.
12. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Charlie Stevens probably won't be this good next year, but on the flip side, Patrick Doster probably won't be this bad.
13. Kansas City Monarchs: Adding both Dale Rooney and Ben Cox should help; if Troy Roberts puts Season 5 behind him, this is a team to watch.
14. Oklahoma City Twins: A full season of Tony Hernandez gives the team a true middle-of-the-order slugger. The offense, however, still looks weak, and the team still looks like it's one move away from the playoffs. Hurry back, Nate McMillan.
15. Buffalo Europeans: A dangerous team; they have the best farm system in the American League, and a young, still-improving pitching staff that's already very good. They might contend this year; they'll definitely contend in the near future.
16. St. Louis Greys: This year's team looks almost exactly like last year's. No reason to expect markedly different results.
17. Santa Cruz Amigos: Despite their success last year, they look unlikely to match that win total. Benj's offseason recap has the details as to why. Furthermore, they outperformed their expected wins by 3, a seemingly small but significant number.
18. Philadelphia Phenomenauts: The defense up the middle remains a problem. Troy Stern, the only defensively credible SS option, can't hit, so Adam Stanley, despite his shortcomings at SS, might get the lion's share of the time. Terry O'Connor is a butcher at 2B as well. At least the rotation is improved with the signing of Otis Upshaw.
19. Montreal Grand Orange: Trading for SP Karim Unamuno last year helps, but the NL East is just too tough for Montreal to make a run.
20. Boise Mashers: The pitching isn't bad, and the lineup doesn't have any bad hitters; the problem here is that Boise doesn't have enough players who are clearly better than league average to become a winner.
21. Los Angeles Hangars: Diego Nunez and Danny Brower are a good 1-2 punch, but the team may be better served by a firesale than a push for the division.
22. Sioux Falls Gunslingers: Scot Rhodes might be a good candidate for NL ROY, and the lineup has serious pop. However, a good number of the pitchers may struggle to throw strikes, which could lead to some ugly innings.
23. Nashville Twang: Control could be an issue; 4 of the 5 projected SP have at least occasional bouts of wildness. Wiki Perez is still a force to be reckoned with, but scouts are whispering that his power is starting to go.
24. Cheyenne Tackleberries: They have several excellent players (Thumper Neagle, Stump Jordan, and Eugene Ramirez), and several others that are championship-caliber starters. The team's main weakness is defense; they have a glut of players who would make fine 3rd basemen, but lousy SS's, and they don't have a single player who could handle SS.
25. Vancouver Vigilantes: Billy Ray Perry is much better than his Season 5 would lead you to believe, and Brandon Sheffield, Douglas Coleridge, Joseph Wang, and Darrin Murphy are all young and talented. This team is certainly capable of being much better than it was last year.
26. Pittsburgh Pug Dogs: The pitching looks surprisingly decent, but don't expect the offense to give them any run support, especially without Bernard Rhodes. The team is actively in the process of rebuilding, so this squad could change very soon.
27. Monterrey Conquistadores: Still rebuilding; there aren't many impact players on this squad, and they don't figure to be competitive for at least a couple more seasons.
28. Tacoma Downpour: Ken James and Jim Brown are legitimately good hitters, and it won't be long until Steven Piper is called up. Vasco Santiago is also very talented. But Tacoma also has one of the worst defensive units in baseball, and a bushel of below replacement-level players that will drag the team down.
29. Washington D.C. Bureaucrats: Forget the major league team. The AAA team might actually be a better ballclub. This is clearly a lost season for the Bureaucrats, but the near future looks very bright; Washington has as much young talent in the minors as any organization in baseball.
30. Richmond Roustabouts: Losing Lee Roundtree and Pat Badilla won't help, and there's no one to replace them. Jimmie Torres and Luis Cervantes can hit, and Scott Watkins' bat plays against righties, but they're three lone bright spots on an otherwise forgettable roster.
31. Colorado Springs Silver Stars: This team has very few, if any, players that one could conceive having a season better than league-average. The offense is terrible, and the pitching staff doesn't look quite so good outside of Seattle.
32. San Antonio Sting: Not much to say. Godspeed, Ronald Levrault.
Friday, February 15, 2008
State of the AL Prospects
It's time to look at the time five prospects for each AL team and then rank each team's overall farm system. The prospect's current position and estimated arrival in the major leagues are in parentheses.
Albuquerque Isotopes
1. Joel Croushore (RP, S6): He has the ability to be a dominant reliever as he doesn't have any weaknesses. He also provides flexibility in that he could be used for 15-20 pitches just about every day or he could toss 30-40 pitches and need some time off every now and then.
2. Matthew McCovey (DH, S7): McCovey has tremendous offensive potential as he has great power and patience and no real weakness. He's ready for the majors right now, but since he can't play defense, Albuquerque doesn't have a spot for him and might not for a while.
3. Glen Fowler (LF, S7): Fowler doesn't have nearly the ceiling as a hitter that McCovey does, but he has the advantage of being able to play the field. And when he does earn a starting spot, he may never come out of the lineup as he's got great durability and health.
4. Guy Wise (SS, S8): Wise isn't going to be a star, but he should be a very useful player. He doesn't have much power, but he's solid everywhere else on offense and shouldn't be a bad hitter. He's not going to be a Gold Glover at shortstop, but he also shouldn't be a butcher there. His health is a bit of a concern.
5. Rafael Segui (SP, S6): Segui is moving into the major league rotation this season, and there's no reason he can't pitch effectively right away. He has good control, a good changeup and two other solid pitches and he's fairly tough on righties. The one thing he won't be is a workhorse, as he can't pitch very deep into games and he certainly can't go on short rest, at least not often.
Boston Red Sox
1. Tino Simon (2B, S7): Simon's excellent batting eye combined with decent offensive abilities elsewhere should allow him to be a solid hitter. His defensive potential seems to be about average at second base, maybe slightly below average.
2. Juan DeSoto (C, S8): Nobody in the Boston organization, including the majors, has a higher offensive ceiling than DeSoto, which is certainly saying something. The two major concerns about him are his health and his defense if the Red Sox decide to use him as a catcher.
3. Cozy Bolling (RP, S9): Bolling not only has the ability to be a quality reliever, he also has the ability to toss as many as 150 innings out of the bullpen. His biggest issue figures to be that he's not nearly as tough on righties as he is on lefties.
4. Gabby Diaz (SP, S8): Diaz doesn't have stellar control and he's not all that tough against righties, but he's got two good pitches and two decent pitches and if he is able to pitch well in the majors, he'll be able to shoulder a very heavy load.
5. Julian Castro (SP, S9): Castro's coming off a dominant first professional season, but there are certainly questions about him. He has stellar control and a dominant fastball, but he only has three pitches and he doesn't cause particular trouble for righties or lefties. As with Diaz, though, if he can pitch well, he can also pitch a lot.
Buffalo Europeans
1. Vinny Wang (SP, S8): Possible the best pitching prospect in the game, Wang throws hard and with great control and he's equally tough on lefties and righties. He only throws three pitches, but they range from good to stellar. He's not going to be a huge innings-eater, but he'll be able to take his regular turn in a rotation and even go on short rest on occasion.
2. Jose Guerrero (SP, S9): Guerrero would be the best pitching prospect for probably 20 other teams. He has good control, is very tough on lefties and has a great fastball. The rest of his pitches aren't anything special and he's not dominant against righties, but he could be a stalwart in a four-man rotation.
3. Cookie Tatis (2B, S9): The newest addition to the Europeans provides some balance to a farm system that was dominated by pitchers. Tatis has the ability to be an excellent hitter at the top of the order, with excellent contact and patience and a good bit of power. He should be solid against righties and outstanding against lefties. His defense at second base will be below average, but it should be good enough to let him stay there.
4. Orber Benitez (RP, S9): Benitez's raw ability is on par with Bolling's (better control, worse pitches, dominant against righties instead of lefties), but if Bolling has the ability to toss up to 150 quality innings out of the bullpen, Benitez can blow that out of the water if the Europeans so desire. Once he reaches his potential, he could probably go two innings at a time while needing fairly few days off.
5. Brian Martin (RP, S9): Martin may actually be better than Benitez, as they have nearly identical control and pitches, but Martin is equally good against righties and lefties. And while he can't pitch as much as Benitez, he'll certainly have the ability to throw a lot of innings.
Cheyenne Tackleberries
1. Dmitri Henderson (RF, S9): Henderson should be an excellent all-around hitter as he rates well across the board. He may need to move across the outfield to left because his arm looks like it will be stretched a bit in right.
2. Doug Webster (RF, S8): Webster should become an excellent leadoff man as he has great contact, great speed and the potential to become a great baserunner. He doesn't have much power and his batting eye isn't great, but it's good enough that he won't chase too many pitches.
3. Vin Gipson (SP, S7): Gipson has great control and a great fastball, but he may struggle against righties and his other three pitches aren't anything special. He also may not be able to take the ball every fifth game, needing an extra day of rest here and there.
4. Joseph Inouoe (SS, S7): Inouoe isn't likely to be a great hitter as he has very little power, but his good contact skills will allow him to hold his own. If he stays at shortstop, he may be below average but not terrible. He also will need some time off over a 162-game season, probably maxing out at 140-150 games.
5. Travis O'Connor (SS, S9): O'Connor has even less power than Inouoe, but he has the potential to make better contact. He may struggle against righties, but he'll be able to play just about every game and his defense at shortstop should eventually be above average.
Florida Cottonmouths
1. Sparky Rando (SP, S7): Rando doesn't throw hard, but he will have very good control and two of his four pitches will be good. He should be solid against lefties and even better against righties. His health isn't perfect, but good training should be able to keep him from having too many injuries.
2. Bruce Kennedy (C, S7): Kennedy doesn't have much power and his batting eye is subpar, but he has good contact skills. On defense, he has a very strong arm and decent accuracy on his throws, and he calls a solid game.
3. Max Valdes (C, S6): Valdes isn't terrible in any facet of his offensive game, but the only place he's really above average is his ability to handle lefties. He's solid but not spectacular across the board on defense. He could probably be every game if healthy, but he's not likely to stay healthy for an entire season.
4. Elmer Nixon (SP, S9): Nixon should be solid when he's on the mound as he has the potential for very good control, two good pitches and two decent pitches, and he's not terrible against righties or lefties. His problem is that his stamina isn't very good, and his health is even worse.
5. Julian Tarasco (RP, S7): Tarasco has great control and a good fastball, he's solid against righties and even better against lefties. His second and third pitches aren't great, but they shouldn't hurt him. He probably won't be able to throw more than 70 or so innings in a season, but they should be good innings.
Los Angeles Hangars
1. Christopher Roth (2B, S7): Roth is solid in both his contact and power ability, and he's got a decent batting eye. He should be a good, not great, hitter but hit real value comes from the fact that he has the potential to be an outstanding defensive second baseman.
2. Otis Combs (SP, S10): Combs doesn't have great control, but his arsenal of pitches is very good. He has a sinker with the potential to be excellent and two other pitches should be very good. He's not great against lefties, but he's solid against righties.
3. Jerry Borbon (1B, S8): Borbon won't be an elite hitter, but he should be quite good as he has very good potential for contact, power and patience. He's not great against either righties or lefties, and his health is a bit of a concern.
4. Edgard Suarez (SS, S7): Suarez may struggle some on offense as he has very little power and his contact skills won't ever be great. His batting eye is decent and he may be able to hit lefties very well while having trouble with righties. He projects to an average defender at shortstop and he's a very durable, healthy player.
5. Ron Duvall (SP, S8): Duvall has very good control and the potential for three very good pitches, but he struggles against righties and he's not great against lefties either. Even if he does become a quality starter, he may need extra rest between starts on occasion.
Minnesota Fatboys
1. Carlos Guzman (RF, S8): Guzman projects to be a force at the top of the order, with great contact skills and a very good batting eye. He also has some pop in his bat, so he may be better off hitting second or third than leading off.
2. Ozzie Hawkins (SS, S9): Hawkins has good contact and power potential and his batting eye is decent. His defense at shortstop may be a bit below average, but it won't be terrible.
3. Alberto Bautista (SS, S9): Bautista's contact and power potential isn't quite as good as Hawkins', but it's still solid and he's more balanced against righties and lefties than Hawkins. His defense at shortstop projects to match Hawkins' almost exactly.
4. Harry Navarre (CF, S11): Navarre doesn't have very good potential contact, power or patience, but that fact that neither righties nor lefties bother him in the slightest should help him be a decent hitter. His value comes from his defense, where he projects to be above average in center field.
5. Felipe Perez (2B, S8): Perez has solid contact and batting eye and his power isn't bad, and he should give righties a great deal of trouble. His range at second base is fine, but his glove may be an issue.
Montreal Grand Orange
1. Ted Barker (SS, S9): Barker has excellent offensive potential with very good power, solid contact and patience and the ability to hit equally well against righties and lefties. The problem is that he's going to need to move to second or third so his defense isn't a problem, and he's going to get hurt. A lot.
2. Denny Hubbard (RP, S8): Hubbard projects to have excellent control and an outstanding fastball. His second pitch is solid and he has a third pitch that's not terrible, which is a plus. He's OK against righties, but he may struggle against lefties. Could make a solid closer down the road.
3. Rich Beltre (2B, S9): Beltre should be a decent hitter, but he doesn't have any abilities that stand out. His power isn't good and he may struggle against righties, but he has the potential to have solid contact and patience and he should do OK against lefties. On defense, he'll either be a weak second baseman or a very good left fielder.
4. Todd Terry (SP, S9): Terry projects to have very good control, but he struggles at times with both righties and lefties. And while none of his five pitches are awful, none of them are great and only one of them is likely to be considered good eventually.
5. Darron O'Malley (SP, S9): O'Malley projects to have very good control and an excellent sinker. He'll be OK against righties, but he may struggle against lefties. His biggest issues are likely to be his health and his durability, which could keep him from being a 200-inning starter even if he is good.
Nashville Twang
1. Birdie Cornelius (SP, S8): Cornelius projects to have excellent control and velocity. He should be good against lefties and dominant against righties. He has the potential to have a very good fastball, a good slider and two other pitches that aren't awful. His only downside is that his stamina, durability and health are all lower than you'd like, but none are dangerously low.
2. Derek Reynolds (C, S7): Reynolds projects to have perhaps the best combination of power and patience in the game. His contact skills are solid and while he's not at his best against righties, he should be able to destroy left-handed pitching. Reynolds hasn't caught much in the minors because his defense is poor, but he's such a good hitter that it might be a worthwhile sacrifice if there's no defensive catcher who can at least hold his own with the bat on the roster.
3. Valerio Duran (RF, S7): Duran's at least solid across the board offensively, and his contact and power combination is good. He should rarely be hurt or need to rest.
4. Jordan Hutch (LF, S7): Hutch should be a solid leadoff hitter as he has blazing speed and projects to have very good contact. His power and batting eye are both solid and he's good against righties and outstanding against lefties. The only drawback to him as a leadoff guy is that he doesn't have good baserunning skills to match his speed.
5. Happy Magadan (SP, S10): Magadan projects to have very good control, a very good forkball and a good slider backed up by two pitches that aren't terrible. He's good against lefties, but he may have some trouble with righties. His biggest issue is his stamina, which could prevent him from being more than a 6- or 7-inning starter.
New York Metropolitans
1. Aaron Blake (RP, S9): Blake projects to have excellent control and a very good fastball. His curveball should be solid and he has a changeup that won't terrible. He has the potential to be OK against righties and very good against lefties. His stamina and health are worrisome, but they shouldn't prevent him from tossing 60-70 effective innings most seasons.
2. Jimmie Balboa (2B, S9): Balboa has good contact potential, but that's about it. He has very little power, he's not particularly good against righties or lefties and his batting eye is just decent. He projects to have very good range at second base, but his glove will be below average. Still, he should be a decent player who can take the field just about every day.
3. Von Thomson (RF, S10): Considering how poor his contact skills are, Thomson doesn't project to have as much power as you'd like to see. He should have a solid batting eye and he'll be decent against righties and even better against lefties. His glove is a question mark in the outfield and his health isn't great.
4. Steven Buhner (RP, S9): Buhner's control isn't going to be very good and he'll likely struggle against lefties, but he projects to be solid against righties and to have a very good sinker. His curveball should also be decent, and he'll be able to throw quite a few innings if he pitches well enough.
5. Greg Pickett (RP, S8): Pickett might not make the top 15 list for some teams, but he does have solid control and two quality pitches. He's not particularly good against righties or lefties, though.
Philadelphia Phenomenauts
1. B.C. Mota (SP, S8): If Mota had even one great pitch, he'd be right on par with Wang among the top pitching prospects. As is, his excellent potential in control, velocity and performance against lefties is mitigated somewhat by his pitches. Three of them project to be solid offerings, but none rise above that level.
2. Sammy Franco (C, S8): Franco projects to be a rare catcher who can hit and play defense. He doesn't have much power and he's not great against righties, but he has excellent potential in contact, patience and against lefties. Defensively, he should be above average overall.
3. Cristobal Ramirez (2B, S6): Ramirez is very similar to Buffalo's Tatis, just slightly less impressive in a couple areas. His contact, power and batting eye all grade out a hair lower than for Tatis, as does his glove and arm strength. Still, the fact that he's that close to having the same potential means he should have a nice future ahead of him.
4. Pete Kennedy (2B, S10): Kennedy's a different type of hitter than Ramirez, but no less impressive. He projects to have an excellent combination of power and patience, and his contact will be solid. He should be solid against righties and better than that against lefties. His only problem is that his defense will likely force him to move to left field.
5. Joe Bacsik (SP, S8): Bacsik's control isn't going to be very good, but he has a nice array of pitches, including a fastball that should be very good. He projects to be tough on righties and nasty against lefties. His biggest problem aside from the control is that his low stamina and durability may limit his innings.
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
1. Rico Silva (SP, S6): Silva will make his big league debut this season, and he already has excellent control and an excellent fastball. He also has a very good slider and two other quality pitches. He's not dominant against righties or lefties, but he should be good enough to succeed in the majors.
2. Roy Rodgers (RP, S8): Rodgers' slider and curveball project to be among the best two-pitch combinations in the game, and he has the potential for very good control as well. He should be solid against lefties and very good against righties. The only real concern about him is his health.
3. Max DeLeon (C, S8): DeLeon may struggle some against righties, but he projects well everywhere else on offense as his contact, power and batting eye all have the potential to be good. On defense, his only liability is his range, although he's not outstanding at any aspect. He doesn't have great durability, so he may be limited to 120-130 games per season.
4. Bobby Hurst (SS, S7): Hurst projects to be a solid player, but nothing special. He doesn't have good contact and he may struggle against lefties, but his power and batting eye are solid and he's good against righties. He's not good enough defensively to play shortstop, so he'll need to move to second or third to avoid being a poor fielder.
5. Sammy Melendez (SP, S8): Melendez projects to have very good control, a very good fastball and a solid slider. His problem is that he may struggle mightily against lefties, and he's not particularly tough on righties either.
Richmond Roustabouts
1. Benito Alvarez (1B, S10): Alvarez projects to have great power and very good patience, as well as solid contact skills. He shouldn't struggle against pitchers from either side. His defense will likely be below average but not so bad he has to DH.
2. Aramis Julio (RP, S10): Julio projects to have excellent control and two good but not great pitches to go with a third pitch that should at least avoid being awful. He should be fine against lefties and a little better against righties.
3. Jerry Allen (SP, S9): Allen only projects to have one good pitch, but he should still become a solid pitcher. He has the potential for very good control and he'll be solid against righties and a bit better against lefties.
4. Harry Paz (C, S10): Pitchers from either side of mound can give Paz problems at times, but he projects to have solid contact, power and patience. His defense should be above average as he's got a good arm and is learning to call a nice game.
5. Julius Parnell (LF, S9): Jalal Parnell's nephew doesn't have quite the offensive potential his uncle had in his prime. Julius projects to be solid across the board, although he does handle right-handed pitching very well. He should become a good but not great hitter in the majors.
San Antonio Sting
1. Ronald Levrault (2B, S8): Levrault has the offensive potential of a first baseman, but he can actually play second base. He projects to have good contact, very good power and outstanding patience. He should hit very well against lefties and mash against righties. His defense at second base has the potential be about average, which is excellent when it comes with his bat. And he'll be able to play just about every game once he's developed.
2. Jin-Chi Choi (2B, S9): Choi is much more of an all-or-nothing hitter. He doesn't make a ton of contact, but he has excellent power potential and projects to have solid patience. He should also be good against both righties and lefties. He should be a very good hitter, but it's a bit of a joke that he's playing second in the minors. He's a corner outfielder or maybe a third baseman, although not a good one, in the majors.
3. Kareem Duckworth (LF, S6): Duckworth got a cup of coffee last season and is now ready for a full-time role, although he still has a good bit of developing to do. He doesn't have a good batting eye, but his power is already outstanding and getting better. He'll eventually have solid contact skills and he'll be solid against lefties and good against righties. Duckworth also has the potential to be a demon on the basepaths.
4. Mateo Baez (SP, S10): Baez projects to have good control and a nice array of pitches. He's not great against righties, but he's much better against lefties. He has the potential to be a solid but not spectacular pitcher.
5. Eddie Lamb (RF, S7): Lamb could become a very solid leadoff hitter. He has almost no power, but he projects to have excellent contact and patience. He may struggle some against righties, but he's OK against lefties, and he'll be a threat to steal bases. His range and arm are good enough to play the outfield, but his glove is more suited to first base.
Santa Cruz Amigos
1. Hal Smart (CF, S9): Smart figures to put the ball in play a lot, as he projects to have excellent contact and poor power and patience. He should be equally good against lefties and righties. Even if he turns out to be more No. 9 hitter than No. 1 hitter, Smart has value because he can play solid defense in center field.
2. Richie Fielder (2B, S6): Fielder's not going to get much better than he is now, which is a solid hitter who can play solid defense at second base. His value on offense comes from not being terrible in any area and being good but not great when it comes to batting eye and matching up against righties and lefties.
3. Clark Murphy (RP, S6): Murphy has good control and two good pitches, and he's equally solid against lefties and righties. He's not a dominant reliever, but he certainly has the ability to get major league hitters out.
4. Farmer Howard (SP, S10): Howard projects to have very good control and he should be very tough on lefties, although righties will have more success against him. His pitches, however, are underwhelming and he doesn't have the stamina to pitch deep into games.
5. Howie Flanagan (SP, S7): His control makes it somewhat unlikely that he'll ever be a quality major league pitcher, but he does have a good set of pitches and he throws very hard. Flanagan can be tough on righties, but he struggles against left-handed hitters.
Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims
1. Bernie Espinosa (RF, S7): Espinosa projects as an excellent all-around hitter as he has the potential to have a great batting eye and good ability everywhere else on offense. His only downside is that he won't be able to play more than 145-150 games without pushing things fatigue-wise.
2. Cesar Nunez (2B, S8): Already looking forward to playing about an hour down the thruway from where he grew up, Nunez certainly has the potential to be a hometown star. His batting eye isn't very good, but he has the potential to have solid contact skills and very good power, and he should be equally good against righties and lefties. Even if he's not a great hitter, though, he'll still be a good player because he can play above average defense at either second base or center field.
3. Jeremy Walker (SP, S6): Walker could make his debut later this season, depending on how things look in the Syracuse rotation. He already has good control and a solid arsenal of pitches, and he still has some room to improve. He may struggle a bit against lefties, but he's solid against righties and he can get better against both.
4. Al Clinton (SS, S6): After 2.5 years in AAA, Clinton needs a chance in the majors or a chance with a new team. His bat's a bit inconsistent since he doesn't have great contact, power or patience. He also isn't quite good enough defensively to really play shortstop, so he'll likely have to move to second or third in the majors.
5. John Griffith (SS, S9): Griffith has a better shot at sticking at shortstop than Clinton, but his bat is just as big a question mark. He has solid contact potential and a decent batting eye, but he doesn't have much power and he's not great against either righties or lefties.
Team rankings
1. Buffalo: The Europeans have tremendous top-end talent, and it's not only pitchers now that they've signed Tatis.
2. Minnesota: Great depth and several high-potential players, but the pitching in the system has gotten thin.
3. Nashville: Very good depth with a nice mix of pitching and hitting at the top.
4. San Antonio: Levrault along gets you into the top five, and there's enough other nice players here to move up a bit more.
5. Philadelphia: A potential ace pitcher and some impressive prospects at important defensive positions provide a nice base to work from.
6. Boston: Very good depth and several high-potential players, but none without some flaws.
7. Cheyenne: Good depth and a couple potential stars, but there's not much pitching in the system.
8. Syracuse: Decent depth and a nice pair of positional prospects at the top of the system.
9. Florida: Rando is an excellent pitching prospect, but there's not much else behind him.
10. Albuquerque: Not much depth and some of the top talents are blocked in the majors.
11. Pittsburgh: Decent depth, but there's not much high-end talent in the system.
12. Los Angeles: There's some depth there, but not a lot at the top.
13. Santa Cruz: The talent level drops off very quickly after Smart (who's not a sure thing himself), and there's no depth.
14. Richmond: There are several intriguing players, but the best one is years away and not that far above average for his position.
15. Montreal: Not much depth and the top talent in the system is a huge health risk.
16. N.Y. Mets: The deadly double - no depth and no high-level talent in the system.
Albuquerque Isotopes
1. Joel Croushore (RP, S6): He has the ability to be a dominant reliever as he doesn't have any weaknesses. He also provides flexibility in that he could be used for 15-20 pitches just about every day or he could toss 30-40 pitches and need some time off every now and then.
2. Matthew McCovey (DH, S7): McCovey has tremendous offensive potential as he has great power and patience and no real weakness. He's ready for the majors right now, but since he can't play defense, Albuquerque doesn't have a spot for him and might not for a while.
3. Glen Fowler (LF, S7): Fowler doesn't have nearly the ceiling as a hitter that McCovey does, but he has the advantage of being able to play the field. And when he does earn a starting spot, he may never come out of the lineup as he's got great durability and health.
4. Guy Wise (SS, S8): Wise isn't going to be a star, but he should be a very useful player. He doesn't have much power, but he's solid everywhere else on offense and shouldn't be a bad hitter. He's not going to be a Gold Glover at shortstop, but he also shouldn't be a butcher there. His health is a bit of a concern.
5. Rafael Segui (SP, S6): Segui is moving into the major league rotation this season, and there's no reason he can't pitch effectively right away. He has good control, a good changeup and two other solid pitches and he's fairly tough on righties. The one thing he won't be is a workhorse, as he can't pitch very deep into games and he certainly can't go on short rest, at least not often.
Boston Red Sox
1. Tino Simon (2B, S7): Simon's excellent batting eye combined with decent offensive abilities elsewhere should allow him to be a solid hitter. His defensive potential seems to be about average at second base, maybe slightly below average.
2. Juan DeSoto (C, S8): Nobody in the Boston organization, including the majors, has a higher offensive ceiling than DeSoto, which is certainly saying something. The two major concerns about him are his health and his defense if the Red Sox decide to use him as a catcher.
3. Cozy Bolling (RP, S9): Bolling not only has the ability to be a quality reliever, he also has the ability to toss as many as 150 innings out of the bullpen. His biggest issue figures to be that he's not nearly as tough on righties as he is on lefties.
4. Gabby Diaz (SP, S8): Diaz doesn't have stellar control and he's not all that tough against righties, but he's got two good pitches and two decent pitches and if he is able to pitch well in the majors, he'll be able to shoulder a very heavy load.
5. Julian Castro (SP, S9): Castro's coming off a dominant first professional season, but there are certainly questions about him. He has stellar control and a dominant fastball, but he only has three pitches and he doesn't cause particular trouble for righties or lefties. As with Diaz, though, if he can pitch well, he can also pitch a lot.
Buffalo Europeans
1. Vinny Wang (SP, S8): Possible the best pitching prospect in the game, Wang throws hard and with great control and he's equally tough on lefties and righties. He only throws three pitches, but they range from good to stellar. He's not going to be a huge innings-eater, but he'll be able to take his regular turn in a rotation and even go on short rest on occasion.
2. Jose Guerrero (SP, S9): Guerrero would be the best pitching prospect for probably 20 other teams. He has good control, is very tough on lefties and has a great fastball. The rest of his pitches aren't anything special and he's not dominant against righties, but he could be a stalwart in a four-man rotation.
3. Cookie Tatis (2B, S9): The newest addition to the Europeans provides some balance to a farm system that was dominated by pitchers. Tatis has the ability to be an excellent hitter at the top of the order, with excellent contact and patience and a good bit of power. He should be solid against righties and outstanding against lefties. His defense at second base will be below average, but it should be good enough to let him stay there.
4. Orber Benitez (RP, S9): Benitez's raw ability is on par with Bolling's (better control, worse pitches, dominant against righties instead of lefties), but if Bolling has the ability to toss up to 150 quality innings out of the bullpen, Benitez can blow that out of the water if the Europeans so desire. Once he reaches his potential, he could probably go two innings at a time while needing fairly few days off.
5. Brian Martin (RP, S9): Martin may actually be better than Benitez, as they have nearly identical control and pitches, but Martin is equally good against righties and lefties. And while he can't pitch as much as Benitez, he'll certainly have the ability to throw a lot of innings.
Cheyenne Tackleberries
1. Dmitri Henderson (RF, S9): Henderson should be an excellent all-around hitter as he rates well across the board. He may need to move across the outfield to left because his arm looks like it will be stretched a bit in right.
2. Doug Webster (RF, S8): Webster should become an excellent leadoff man as he has great contact, great speed and the potential to become a great baserunner. He doesn't have much power and his batting eye isn't great, but it's good enough that he won't chase too many pitches.
3. Vin Gipson (SP, S7): Gipson has great control and a great fastball, but he may struggle against righties and his other three pitches aren't anything special. He also may not be able to take the ball every fifth game, needing an extra day of rest here and there.
4. Joseph Inouoe (SS, S7): Inouoe isn't likely to be a great hitter as he has very little power, but his good contact skills will allow him to hold his own. If he stays at shortstop, he may be below average but not terrible. He also will need some time off over a 162-game season, probably maxing out at 140-150 games.
5. Travis O'Connor (SS, S9): O'Connor has even less power than Inouoe, but he has the potential to make better contact. He may struggle against righties, but he'll be able to play just about every game and his defense at shortstop should eventually be above average.
Florida Cottonmouths
1. Sparky Rando (SP, S7): Rando doesn't throw hard, but he will have very good control and two of his four pitches will be good. He should be solid against lefties and even better against righties. His health isn't perfect, but good training should be able to keep him from having too many injuries.
2. Bruce Kennedy (C, S7): Kennedy doesn't have much power and his batting eye is subpar, but he has good contact skills. On defense, he has a very strong arm and decent accuracy on his throws, and he calls a solid game.
3. Max Valdes (C, S6): Valdes isn't terrible in any facet of his offensive game, but the only place he's really above average is his ability to handle lefties. He's solid but not spectacular across the board on defense. He could probably be every game if healthy, but he's not likely to stay healthy for an entire season.
4. Elmer Nixon (SP, S9): Nixon should be solid when he's on the mound as he has the potential for very good control, two good pitches and two decent pitches, and he's not terrible against righties or lefties. His problem is that his stamina isn't very good, and his health is even worse.
5. Julian Tarasco (RP, S7): Tarasco has great control and a good fastball, he's solid against righties and even better against lefties. His second and third pitches aren't great, but they shouldn't hurt him. He probably won't be able to throw more than 70 or so innings in a season, but they should be good innings.
Los Angeles Hangars
1. Christopher Roth (2B, S7): Roth is solid in both his contact and power ability, and he's got a decent batting eye. He should be a good, not great, hitter but hit real value comes from the fact that he has the potential to be an outstanding defensive second baseman.
2. Otis Combs (SP, S10): Combs doesn't have great control, but his arsenal of pitches is very good. He has a sinker with the potential to be excellent and two other pitches should be very good. He's not great against lefties, but he's solid against righties.
3. Jerry Borbon (1B, S8): Borbon won't be an elite hitter, but he should be quite good as he has very good potential for contact, power and patience. He's not great against either righties or lefties, and his health is a bit of a concern.
4. Edgard Suarez (SS, S7): Suarez may struggle some on offense as he has very little power and his contact skills won't ever be great. His batting eye is decent and he may be able to hit lefties very well while having trouble with righties. He projects to an average defender at shortstop and he's a very durable, healthy player.
5. Ron Duvall (SP, S8): Duvall has very good control and the potential for three very good pitches, but he struggles against righties and he's not great against lefties either. Even if he does become a quality starter, he may need extra rest between starts on occasion.
Minnesota Fatboys
1. Carlos Guzman (RF, S8): Guzman projects to be a force at the top of the order, with great contact skills and a very good batting eye. He also has some pop in his bat, so he may be better off hitting second or third than leading off.
2. Ozzie Hawkins (SS, S9): Hawkins has good contact and power potential and his batting eye is decent. His defense at shortstop may be a bit below average, but it won't be terrible.
3. Alberto Bautista (SS, S9): Bautista's contact and power potential isn't quite as good as Hawkins', but it's still solid and he's more balanced against righties and lefties than Hawkins. His defense at shortstop projects to match Hawkins' almost exactly.
4. Harry Navarre (CF, S11): Navarre doesn't have very good potential contact, power or patience, but that fact that neither righties nor lefties bother him in the slightest should help him be a decent hitter. His value comes from his defense, where he projects to be above average in center field.
5. Felipe Perez (2B, S8): Perez has solid contact and batting eye and his power isn't bad, and he should give righties a great deal of trouble. His range at second base is fine, but his glove may be an issue.
Montreal Grand Orange
1. Ted Barker (SS, S9): Barker has excellent offensive potential with very good power, solid contact and patience and the ability to hit equally well against righties and lefties. The problem is that he's going to need to move to second or third so his defense isn't a problem, and he's going to get hurt. A lot.
2. Denny Hubbard (RP, S8): Hubbard projects to have excellent control and an outstanding fastball. His second pitch is solid and he has a third pitch that's not terrible, which is a plus. He's OK against righties, but he may struggle against lefties. Could make a solid closer down the road.
3. Rich Beltre (2B, S9): Beltre should be a decent hitter, but he doesn't have any abilities that stand out. His power isn't good and he may struggle against righties, but he has the potential to have solid contact and patience and he should do OK against lefties. On defense, he'll either be a weak second baseman or a very good left fielder.
4. Todd Terry (SP, S9): Terry projects to have very good control, but he struggles at times with both righties and lefties. And while none of his five pitches are awful, none of them are great and only one of them is likely to be considered good eventually.
5. Darron O'Malley (SP, S9): O'Malley projects to have very good control and an excellent sinker. He'll be OK against righties, but he may struggle against lefties. His biggest issues are likely to be his health and his durability, which could keep him from being a 200-inning starter even if he is good.
Nashville Twang
1. Birdie Cornelius (SP, S8): Cornelius projects to have excellent control and velocity. He should be good against lefties and dominant against righties. He has the potential to have a very good fastball, a good slider and two other pitches that aren't awful. His only downside is that his stamina, durability and health are all lower than you'd like, but none are dangerously low.
2. Derek Reynolds (C, S7): Reynolds projects to have perhaps the best combination of power and patience in the game. His contact skills are solid and while he's not at his best against righties, he should be able to destroy left-handed pitching. Reynolds hasn't caught much in the minors because his defense is poor, but he's such a good hitter that it might be a worthwhile sacrifice if there's no defensive catcher who can at least hold his own with the bat on the roster.
3. Valerio Duran (RF, S7): Duran's at least solid across the board offensively, and his contact and power combination is good. He should rarely be hurt or need to rest.
4. Jordan Hutch (LF, S7): Hutch should be a solid leadoff hitter as he has blazing speed and projects to have very good contact. His power and batting eye are both solid and he's good against righties and outstanding against lefties. The only drawback to him as a leadoff guy is that he doesn't have good baserunning skills to match his speed.
5. Happy Magadan (SP, S10): Magadan projects to have very good control, a very good forkball and a good slider backed up by two pitches that aren't terrible. He's good against lefties, but he may have some trouble with righties. His biggest issue is his stamina, which could prevent him from being more than a 6- or 7-inning starter.
New York Metropolitans
1. Aaron Blake (RP, S9): Blake projects to have excellent control and a very good fastball. His curveball should be solid and he has a changeup that won't terrible. He has the potential to be OK against righties and very good against lefties. His stamina and health are worrisome, but they shouldn't prevent him from tossing 60-70 effective innings most seasons.
2. Jimmie Balboa (2B, S9): Balboa has good contact potential, but that's about it. He has very little power, he's not particularly good against righties or lefties and his batting eye is just decent. He projects to have very good range at second base, but his glove will be below average. Still, he should be a decent player who can take the field just about every day.
3. Von Thomson (RF, S10): Considering how poor his contact skills are, Thomson doesn't project to have as much power as you'd like to see. He should have a solid batting eye and he'll be decent against righties and even better against lefties. His glove is a question mark in the outfield and his health isn't great.
4. Steven Buhner (RP, S9): Buhner's control isn't going to be very good and he'll likely struggle against lefties, but he projects to be solid against righties and to have a very good sinker. His curveball should also be decent, and he'll be able to throw quite a few innings if he pitches well enough.
5. Greg Pickett (RP, S8): Pickett might not make the top 15 list for some teams, but he does have solid control and two quality pitches. He's not particularly good against righties or lefties, though.
Philadelphia Phenomenauts
1. B.C. Mota (SP, S8): If Mota had even one great pitch, he'd be right on par with Wang among the top pitching prospects. As is, his excellent potential in control, velocity and performance against lefties is mitigated somewhat by his pitches. Three of them project to be solid offerings, but none rise above that level.
2. Sammy Franco (C, S8): Franco projects to be a rare catcher who can hit and play defense. He doesn't have much power and he's not great against righties, but he has excellent potential in contact, patience and against lefties. Defensively, he should be above average overall.
3. Cristobal Ramirez (2B, S6): Ramirez is very similar to Buffalo's Tatis, just slightly less impressive in a couple areas. His contact, power and batting eye all grade out a hair lower than for Tatis, as does his glove and arm strength. Still, the fact that he's that close to having the same potential means he should have a nice future ahead of him.
4. Pete Kennedy (2B, S10): Kennedy's a different type of hitter than Ramirez, but no less impressive. He projects to have an excellent combination of power and patience, and his contact will be solid. He should be solid against righties and better than that against lefties. His only problem is that his defense will likely force him to move to left field.
5. Joe Bacsik (SP, S8): Bacsik's control isn't going to be very good, but he has a nice array of pitches, including a fastball that should be very good. He projects to be tough on righties and nasty against lefties. His biggest problem aside from the control is that his low stamina and durability may limit his innings.
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
1. Rico Silva (SP, S6): Silva will make his big league debut this season, and he already has excellent control and an excellent fastball. He also has a very good slider and two other quality pitches. He's not dominant against righties or lefties, but he should be good enough to succeed in the majors.
2. Roy Rodgers (RP, S8): Rodgers' slider and curveball project to be among the best two-pitch combinations in the game, and he has the potential for very good control as well. He should be solid against lefties and very good against righties. The only real concern about him is his health.
3. Max DeLeon (C, S8): DeLeon may struggle some against righties, but he projects well everywhere else on offense as his contact, power and batting eye all have the potential to be good. On defense, his only liability is his range, although he's not outstanding at any aspect. He doesn't have great durability, so he may be limited to 120-130 games per season.
4. Bobby Hurst (SS, S7): Hurst projects to be a solid player, but nothing special. He doesn't have good contact and he may struggle against lefties, but his power and batting eye are solid and he's good against righties. He's not good enough defensively to play shortstop, so he'll need to move to second or third to avoid being a poor fielder.
5. Sammy Melendez (SP, S8): Melendez projects to have very good control, a very good fastball and a solid slider. His problem is that he may struggle mightily against lefties, and he's not particularly tough on righties either.
Richmond Roustabouts
1. Benito Alvarez (1B, S10): Alvarez projects to have great power and very good patience, as well as solid contact skills. He shouldn't struggle against pitchers from either side. His defense will likely be below average but not so bad he has to DH.
2. Aramis Julio (RP, S10): Julio projects to have excellent control and two good but not great pitches to go with a third pitch that should at least avoid being awful. He should be fine against lefties and a little better against righties.
3. Jerry Allen (SP, S9): Allen only projects to have one good pitch, but he should still become a solid pitcher. He has the potential for very good control and he'll be solid against righties and a bit better against lefties.
4. Harry Paz (C, S10): Pitchers from either side of mound can give Paz problems at times, but he projects to have solid contact, power and patience. His defense should be above average as he's got a good arm and is learning to call a nice game.
5. Julius Parnell (LF, S9): Jalal Parnell's nephew doesn't have quite the offensive potential his uncle had in his prime. Julius projects to be solid across the board, although he does handle right-handed pitching very well. He should become a good but not great hitter in the majors.
San Antonio Sting
1. Ronald Levrault (2B, S8): Levrault has the offensive potential of a first baseman, but he can actually play second base. He projects to have good contact, very good power and outstanding patience. He should hit very well against lefties and mash against righties. His defense at second base has the potential be about average, which is excellent when it comes with his bat. And he'll be able to play just about every game once he's developed.
2. Jin-Chi Choi (2B, S9): Choi is much more of an all-or-nothing hitter. He doesn't make a ton of contact, but he has excellent power potential and projects to have solid patience. He should also be good against both righties and lefties. He should be a very good hitter, but it's a bit of a joke that he's playing second in the minors. He's a corner outfielder or maybe a third baseman, although not a good one, in the majors.
3. Kareem Duckworth (LF, S6): Duckworth got a cup of coffee last season and is now ready for a full-time role, although he still has a good bit of developing to do. He doesn't have a good batting eye, but his power is already outstanding and getting better. He'll eventually have solid contact skills and he'll be solid against lefties and good against righties. Duckworth also has the potential to be a demon on the basepaths.
4. Mateo Baez (SP, S10): Baez projects to have good control and a nice array of pitches. He's not great against righties, but he's much better against lefties. He has the potential to be a solid but not spectacular pitcher.
5. Eddie Lamb (RF, S7): Lamb could become a very solid leadoff hitter. He has almost no power, but he projects to have excellent contact and patience. He may struggle some against righties, but he's OK against lefties, and he'll be a threat to steal bases. His range and arm are good enough to play the outfield, but his glove is more suited to first base.
Santa Cruz Amigos
1. Hal Smart (CF, S9): Smart figures to put the ball in play a lot, as he projects to have excellent contact and poor power and patience. He should be equally good against lefties and righties. Even if he turns out to be more No. 9 hitter than No. 1 hitter, Smart has value because he can play solid defense in center field.
2. Richie Fielder (2B, S6): Fielder's not going to get much better than he is now, which is a solid hitter who can play solid defense at second base. His value on offense comes from not being terrible in any area and being good but not great when it comes to batting eye and matching up against righties and lefties.
3. Clark Murphy (RP, S6): Murphy has good control and two good pitches, and he's equally solid against lefties and righties. He's not a dominant reliever, but he certainly has the ability to get major league hitters out.
4. Farmer Howard (SP, S10): Howard projects to have very good control and he should be very tough on lefties, although righties will have more success against him. His pitches, however, are underwhelming and he doesn't have the stamina to pitch deep into games.
5. Howie Flanagan (SP, S7): His control makes it somewhat unlikely that he'll ever be a quality major league pitcher, but he does have a good set of pitches and he throws very hard. Flanagan can be tough on righties, but he struggles against left-handed hitters.
Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims
1. Bernie Espinosa (RF, S7): Espinosa projects as an excellent all-around hitter as he has the potential to have a great batting eye and good ability everywhere else on offense. His only downside is that he won't be able to play more than 145-150 games without pushing things fatigue-wise.
2. Cesar Nunez (2B, S8): Already looking forward to playing about an hour down the thruway from where he grew up, Nunez certainly has the potential to be a hometown star. His batting eye isn't very good, but he has the potential to have solid contact skills and very good power, and he should be equally good against righties and lefties. Even if he's not a great hitter, though, he'll still be a good player because he can play above average defense at either second base or center field.
3. Jeremy Walker (SP, S6): Walker could make his debut later this season, depending on how things look in the Syracuse rotation. He already has good control and a solid arsenal of pitches, and he still has some room to improve. He may struggle a bit against lefties, but he's solid against righties and he can get better against both.
4. Al Clinton (SS, S6): After 2.5 years in AAA, Clinton needs a chance in the majors or a chance with a new team. His bat's a bit inconsistent since he doesn't have great contact, power or patience. He also isn't quite good enough defensively to really play shortstop, so he'll likely have to move to second or third in the majors.
5. John Griffith (SS, S9): Griffith has a better shot at sticking at shortstop than Clinton, but his bat is just as big a question mark. He has solid contact potential and a decent batting eye, but he doesn't have much power and he's not great against either righties or lefties.
Team rankings
1. Buffalo: The Europeans have tremendous top-end talent, and it's not only pitchers now that they've signed Tatis.
2. Minnesota: Great depth and several high-potential players, but the pitching in the system has gotten thin.
3. Nashville: Very good depth with a nice mix of pitching and hitting at the top.
4. San Antonio: Levrault along gets you into the top five, and there's enough other nice players here to move up a bit more.
5. Philadelphia: A potential ace pitcher and some impressive prospects at important defensive positions provide a nice base to work from.
6. Boston: Very good depth and several high-potential players, but none without some flaws.
7. Cheyenne: Good depth and a couple potential stars, but there's not much pitching in the system.
8. Syracuse: Decent depth and a nice pair of positional prospects at the top of the system.
9. Florida: Rando is an excellent pitching prospect, but there's not much else behind him.
10. Albuquerque: Not much depth and some of the top talents are blocked in the majors.
11. Pittsburgh: Decent depth, but there's not much high-end talent in the system.
12. Los Angeles: There's some depth there, but not a lot at the top.
13. Santa Cruz: The talent level drops off very quickly after Smart (who's not a sure thing himself), and there's no depth.
14. Richmond: There are several intriguing players, but the best one is years away and not that far above average for his position.
15. Montreal: Not much depth and the top talent in the system is a huge health risk.
16. N.Y. Mets: The deadly double - no depth and no high-level talent in the system.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Offseason recap
With spring training underway, it's time to look back at the offseason and see which teams improved the most and which ones are in worse shape than they were before rollover.
Here are the top five best and worst offseasons:
Worst
5. Albuquerque Isotopes
The 'Topes offseason came down to losing two pitchers to free agency and signing two different arms. Gone are Juan Gonzales (4.00 career ERA, but a 5.04 mark in season 5) and Jay Looper (4.42 career ERA, but a 4.86 mark in season 5). Both of them also had to deal with pitching in Albuquerque's terrible park for pitchers.
In their place, Albuquerque brought in Brian Hunt (4.54 career ERA, 4.28 in season 5) and Lenny Smith (4.19 career ERA, 4.66 in season 5) for at least $20.3 million over the next two seasons.
Hunt and Smith are fine pitchers, but once they start working in Isotopes Park, it's unlikely they'll be any better than Looper and Gonzales were, and they could be a good bit worse. And as part of the exchange of pitchers, Albuquerque gave up the No. 20 pick in this year's draft (for Hunt) and added the No. 42 selection (for Looper), a switch that means they may not add any impact prospects to their system this season.
4. Boise Mashers
Part of this ranking isn't really Boise's fault. The Mashers lost Sherman Yount and Steven Miller to free agency, and it wouldn't have made sense to sign either one since they're both old and declining. However, they did combine to give Boise a 3.67 ERA in 235 innings, and that kind of performance is difficult to replace.
The Mashers made a savvy signing by picking up Willie Tavarez on the cheap, but he's likely to have trouble matching his 4.12 career ERA or 4.04 season 5 ERA since he's moving from spending most of his career in Oklahoma City's pitcher's park to playing for Boise in a slight hitter's environment. Boise also re-signed Pascual Ozuna once it became apparent nobody else was going to sign the Type A free agent, but it's unclear how much he'll help at age 37 after posting a 4.73 ERA in season 5.
Aside from the changes to the pitching staff, the Mashers went out and signed two free agent position players: Esteban Manzanillo and Zach Trammell for at least $26 million over the next two seasons and possibly as much as $36 million over the next three.
Trammell, especially, seems like a waste of money. He doesn't hit well (.337 OBP and .389 SLG for his career, .335/.397 in season 5), and he's not a defensive whiz at second base to make up for it. Manzanillo (.334/.416 for his career, .348/.468 in season 5) can at least hit a little, but his defense at shortstop is similar to Trammell's at second. Both have fine gloves, but the range is lacking, which means more balls than you'd like will get through to the outfield.
Boise finished 15 games behind Anaheim in season 5, and I fail to see how either Trammell or Manzanillo will help make up that difference, especially considering the hit the pitching took in free agency. The Mashers probably would have been better served saving the money they spent on the two middle infielders and using it on prospects.
3. Chicago Jayhawks
As usual, the Jayhawks have been very active this offseason, but it was one move in particular that doomed them to this position, and there wasn't anything they could have done about it after rollover.
The biggest problem for the Jayhawks is that Andres Silva decided to test free agency after they didn't extend him before season 5 ended. When he left, the Jayhawks lost a pitcher with a career 3.53 ERA who went 17-7 with a 3.11 ERA in 211 innings in season 5. Losing that kind of production is bad enough, but when Silva went and signed with the rival New York Yankees, it turned into a double whammy.
To replace Silva, Chicago signed Mo Greer, who has a 4.56 career ERA and posted a 5.05 mark in season 5.
The other free agent loss for Chicago was Rob Matthews, who posted a .376 OBP and .443 SLG in season 5. The Jayhawks did address their offense, signing Julius Thomas, re-signing Fred Risley and trading for Peter Embree, all three of whom are getting old and struggled on offense in season 5. In fact, all three had an OPS in the .700 range.
Chicago also did some work on its bullpen, re-signing Erubiel Sanchez and trading for Jorel Shaw, Omar Rincon, Francisco Ordaz and Jose Morales, all of whom have at least been solid.
But none of the maneuvering makes up for the fact that Chicago lost one of the NL's best pitcher. And while the Jayhawks added three draft picks as compensation for Silva and Matthews, they still don't pick until 32nd overall and are unlikely to add much, if any, star talent to their farm system.
2. Santa Cruz Amigos
The Amigos had a strange offseason. Burdened with some bad contracts from the previous owner, Santa Cruz got rid of seven players by non-tendering them or declining their options. Five of the seven played a significant role on the season 5 team, with the best being RF Vin Hernandez (.795 OPS) and Gold Glove CF Jaime Sinclair (.728 OPS). The cuts saved the Amigos as much as $30 million for season 6, but how they went about replacing those players didn't make much sense.
Santa Cruz went out and signed eight free agents while re-signing two of their own players. The list: C/DH Marv Black, 1B Al Greenwood, 1B Eduardo Pinzon, RF Ted Simms and pitchers Sherman Yount, Kareem Kipling, Ricardo Barcelo, John Parker, Christopher Hines and Manny Ellenwood.
Black can't catch, his .802 career OPS wouldn't be great at DH and he's so inconsistent that he's posted an OPS below .700 in two seasons. Greenwood has nice minor league numbers, but he's never played a game in the majors and the Amigos gave him a four-year deal (3.3 million per) anyway. Pinzon is a mediocre bat for 1B, but he didn't cost very much to re-sign. Simms has power, but he also has a career .310 OBP and will be a drain on the offense, especially in that park.
Of the pitchers, only Yount had an ERA below 4.30 in season 5, but his career mark is 4.95. Parker was a solid pitcher for the Amigos, but Kipling, Ellenwood and Hines are mediocre at best (although they didn't cost much) and Barcelo has been terrible (and he got $23 million over five seasons).
The Amigos also lost 3B Dale Sedlacek in free agency, and none of the hitters they signed appear capable of matching the .882 OPS he posted in season 5.
In all, the Amigos don't appear to have done anything to help the team on either offense or defense, and they signed some very curious long-term contracts with Greenwood and Barcelo.
1. Richmond Roustabouts
Richmond's offseason pretty much only consisted of trading away SS Pat Badilla and 1B Lee Roundtree. There's nothing wrong with that, since Richmond's not ready to contend and Badilla and Roundtree were both going to cost enough in season 7 that the Roustabouts wouldn't have wanted them on the roster if they still weren't ready to contend.
The problem is what the Roustabouts got in return once they decided it was time to unload two of their most tradeable commodities. Badilla fetched SP Sammy Cedeno, C Bob Crespo and IF Rob Tracy while Roundtree brought back IF Kevin Bryant and SP Al Trajano.
None of those five players is a sure thing to be a quality major leaguer, and Bryant and Tracy are backups at best in the big leagues. Trajano and Cedeno have similar potential (Trajano has slightly better control; Cedeno throws harder), but neither will be more than a back of the rotation starter, if that. Crespo is probably the best of the bunch, as he projects to play good defense and he may be able to hold his own with the bat in the big leagues.
If you're trading away two quality players who could help several contending teams, you need to get more than a catcher with the potential to be slightly above average, two potential fourth or fifth starters and two utility infielders.
Best
5. Philadelphia Phenomenauts
After four seasons as the doormat of the AL East, the Phenomenauts climbed to third place in season 5, and now they appear to want even more than that.
Philadelphia's best move of the offseason was trading for Lee Roundtree. In that deal, discussed above, Philly picked up a first baseman with a career .949 OPS without giving up anybody who was crucial to the franchise longterm.
Philadelphia also unloaded half of Sparky Weaver's contract while picking up DH Julio Mendoza, who should at least be great as the right-handed part of a platoon in a season or two.
The Phenomenauts also decided to pick up a couple big free agents, signing LF/2B Terry O'Connor and SP Otis Upshaw. O'Connor should improve greatly upon last year's .745 OPS now that he's out of the worst hitter's park in the league, and Upshaw has a solid 4.40 career ERA and will be a definite upgrade in the rotation for Philadelphia.
The Phenomenauts still probably can't make the playoffs this season, but they should definitely set a franchise record in wins, and a winning season isn't out of the question if everything breaks right. And with some more development from the team's younger players, all four of the players Philadelphia picked up this offseason should help the team make its first real playoff push in season 7 or 8.
4. Kansas City Monarchs
The Monarchs went on a bit of a spending spree, and their timing was pretty good. With the No. 16 pick in this season's draft, they could sign Type A free agents without giving up a first-round pick, so they went out and got two.
Aside from signing OF Rob Matthews and SP Dale Rooney, the Monarchs also nabbed pitchers Denny Moore, Steven Miller and Ben Cox and re-signed Damion Rekar, all of whom will cost as much as $70 million over the next three seasons.
Those five new players replace departing free agents Julius Thomas, Brendan Henry and Mo Greer. In addition to bringing in a better group of players than they let go, the Monarchs essentially traded the 62nd and 94th picks in the draft for the 40th pick because Greer was a Type B free agent.
Greer and Henry combined for a 5.03 ERA in 299 innings for Kansas City last season. Rooney and Cox both struggled to ERAs above 5.00 last season, but Rooney still has a 3.98 career ERA and Cox is at 4.38. Together, they should be able to perform significantly better than Greer and Henry did.
And Moore has a 4.29 career ERA and was at 4.15 in season 5. Miller had a 3.74 ERA in season 5, but he's probably not really that good. Still, both pitchers should be useful for the Monarchs. And Matthews (with a .369 career OBP and .446 career SLG) is a better offensive player who's also more versatile on defense than Thomas (who had a .330 OBP and .445 SLG in season 5).
The Monarchs spent a lot of money, but it should definitely make them better. The question is whether it improves them enough for the first playoff spot in franchise history. If it was more clear that the answer is yes, they'd be higher on this list.
3. Minnesota Fatboys
Minnesota didn't do much this offseason, because the self-sustaining juggernaut generally only needs tweaking. The biggest changes are that SP Dale Rooney is gone and SS Pat Badilla has arrived.
The Fatboys had no interest in giving Rooney $10-plus million for multiple seasons, so getting two draft picks (No. 35 and 62) for him is good for the franchise. Obviously they'd have preferred for one of those picks to be a first-rounder, but they're still better off with the picks than with a pitcher they didn't really need.
Badilla isn't great and he'll be pretty expensive starting next season, but he has the ability to hit significantly better than Gerald Kim, who started 105 games at SS for Minnesota last season. And the Fatboys didn't give up anybody who figured to ever have a significant impact on their major league team to get him.
Other than that, the Fatboys traded a couple other spare parts for mediocre SP prospect Cooper Plant and they were active in Rule 5, drafting utility infielder Marty Pose and potentially useful RP Hideo Yamamoto and trading for utility infielder Phillip Trachsel. None of those players figure to see a ton of action, but they provide good depth in case of injury.
2. Nashville Twang
Nashville's offseason was a case of addition by subtraction. The Twang lost free agents Brian Hunt and Esteban Manzanillo and while they're both solid players, their subtraction from the team added three draft picks: Nos. 20, 33 and 38. Because of that, the Twang now have five picks in the top 56 to add to a farm system that is already among the best in the league.
Aside from adding some draft picks, the Twang picked up potentially solid RP Jerry Farrell in the Rule 5 draft, signed RP Enrique Posada and re-signed pitchers Pascual Vazquez and Jose Cruz. Those pitchers will cost a combined $20 million over the next two seasons and all three have the potential to be league average or slightly better.
Nashville has a wave of talented prospects at AAA ready to hit the big leagues this season and/or next season. Those players combined with this year's draft class could set the Twang up to be a major player in the NL South for many seasons to come.
1. New York Yankees
This offseason may end up hurting the Yankees in season 8 or 9, but the fact is that no team did more this offseason to help itself win the World Series in season 6 than the Yankees. The big signing, of course, was Andres Silva.
The Yankees gave the 37-year-old a guaranteed $50 million over the next four seasons, but he should be worth it for at least a season or two. Silva has a 3.53 career ERA, and his 3.11 ERA in season 5 was his best yet. He'll also be moving from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park, and he's replacing a starter who had a 4.69 ERA in season 5.
Upgrading from Otis Upshaw to Silva is probably worth 2-4 wins by itself in the regular season, but that's not really what the Yankees care about. New York has made the playoffs four seasons in a row but has only won one series and has a 7-13 record in the postseason. With Silva around to join Jay Cosby and Haywood Towers in the playoff rotation, the Yankees should be able to trot out an ace-caliber starting pitcher for every postseason game, which will make them a much tougher out.
The Yankees lost four free agents, including Upshaw, but they didn't have any interest in keeping any of them and they picked up the No. 43 pick in this season's draft because one of them was a Type B.
In addition to signing Silva, the Yankees also picked up swing man Juan Gonzales and backup CF Chris Hill. Gonzales has a 4.00 career ERA and although he posted a 5.04 mark in season 5, moving from the AL and the best hitter's park to the NL and a pitcher's park should help. Hill's a good defender (although he'd be better had he not gotten Telemaco'd in season 4) and he's hit well enough at times that he could pressure incumbent CF Daniel Jefferson for the starting job.
The Yankees also traded OF prospect Christian Reid (a tweener who appears to be borderline defensively in center field and borderline offensively in the corners) and RP Ron Hafner (a mediocre talent) for RP Paul Pearson and $6 million to cover Pearson's salary and a little extra. Pearson's upside is nice, but he's had some terrible seasons in the past and he struggles to stay healthy. Still, the worst case scenario for the Yankees is that he's either hurt for the playoffs or he pitches badly enough in the regular season that they decide not to use him much in the playoffs.
All in all, the Yankees may have added as many as 5-6 wins in the regular season and they made themselves a great deal more difficult to beat in a playoff series. If the Yankees get to the NLCS or, even better, the World Series for the first time in the next two seasons, it will be worth whatever price they end up paying for Silva's big contract down the road.
Here are the top five best and worst offseasons:
Worst
5. Albuquerque Isotopes
The 'Topes offseason came down to losing two pitchers to free agency and signing two different arms. Gone are Juan Gonzales (4.00 career ERA, but a 5.04 mark in season 5) and Jay Looper (4.42 career ERA, but a 4.86 mark in season 5). Both of them also had to deal with pitching in Albuquerque's terrible park for pitchers.
In their place, Albuquerque brought in Brian Hunt (4.54 career ERA, 4.28 in season 5) and Lenny Smith (4.19 career ERA, 4.66 in season 5) for at least $20.3 million over the next two seasons.
Hunt and Smith are fine pitchers, but once they start working in Isotopes Park, it's unlikely they'll be any better than Looper and Gonzales were, and they could be a good bit worse. And as part of the exchange of pitchers, Albuquerque gave up the No. 20 pick in this year's draft (for Hunt) and added the No. 42 selection (for Looper), a switch that means they may not add any impact prospects to their system this season.
4. Boise Mashers
Part of this ranking isn't really Boise's fault. The Mashers lost Sherman Yount and Steven Miller to free agency, and it wouldn't have made sense to sign either one since they're both old and declining. However, they did combine to give Boise a 3.67 ERA in 235 innings, and that kind of performance is difficult to replace.
The Mashers made a savvy signing by picking up Willie Tavarez on the cheap, but he's likely to have trouble matching his 4.12 career ERA or 4.04 season 5 ERA since he's moving from spending most of his career in Oklahoma City's pitcher's park to playing for Boise in a slight hitter's environment. Boise also re-signed Pascual Ozuna once it became apparent nobody else was going to sign the Type A free agent, but it's unclear how much he'll help at age 37 after posting a 4.73 ERA in season 5.
Aside from the changes to the pitching staff, the Mashers went out and signed two free agent position players: Esteban Manzanillo and Zach Trammell for at least $26 million over the next two seasons and possibly as much as $36 million over the next three.
Trammell, especially, seems like a waste of money. He doesn't hit well (.337 OBP and .389 SLG for his career, .335/.397 in season 5), and he's not a defensive whiz at second base to make up for it. Manzanillo (.334/.416 for his career, .348/.468 in season 5) can at least hit a little, but his defense at shortstop is similar to Trammell's at second. Both have fine gloves, but the range is lacking, which means more balls than you'd like will get through to the outfield.
Boise finished 15 games behind Anaheim in season 5, and I fail to see how either Trammell or Manzanillo will help make up that difference, especially considering the hit the pitching took in free agency. The Mashers probably would have been better served saving the money they spent on the two middle infielders and using it on prospects.
3. Chicago Jayhawks
As usual, the Jayhawks have been very active this offseason, but it was one move in particular that doomed them to this position, and there wasn't anything they could have done about it after rollover.
The biggest problem for the Jayhawks is that Andres Silva decided to test free agency after they didn't extend him before season 5 ended. When he left, the Jayhawks lost a pitcher with a career 3.53 ERA who went 17-7 with a 3.11 ERA in 211 innings in season 5. Losing that kind of production is bad enough, but when Silva went and signed with the rival New York Yankees, it turned into a double whammy.
To replace Silva, Chicago signed Mo Greer, who has a 4.56 career ERA and posted a 5.05 mark in season 5.
The other free agent loss for Chicago was Rob Matthews, who posted a .376 OBP and .443 SLG in season 5. The Jayhawks did address their offense, signing Julius Thomas, re-signing Fred Risley and trading for Peter Embree, all three of whom are getting old and struggled on offense in season 5. In fact, all three had an OPS in the .700 range.
Chicago also did some work on its bullpen, re-signing Erubiel Sanchez and trading for Jorel Shaw, Omar Rincon, Francisco Ordaz and Jose Morales, all of whom have at least been solid.
But none of the maneuvering makes up for the fact that Chicago lost one of the NL's best pitcher. And while the Jayhawks added three draft picks as compensation for Silva and Matthews, they still don't pick until 32nd overall and are unlikely to add much, if any, star talent to their farm system.
2. Santa Cruz Amigos
The Amigos had a strange offseason. Burdened with some bad contracts from the previous owner, Santa Cruz got rid of seven players by non-tendering them or declining their options. Five of the seven played a significant role on the season 5 team, with the best being RF Vin Hernandez (.795 OPS) and Gold Glove CF Jaime Sinclair (.728 OPS). The cuts saved the Amigos as much as $30 million for season 6, but how they went about replacing those players didn't make much sense.
Santa Cruz went out and signed eight free agents while re-signing two of their own players. The list: C/DH Marv Black, 1B Al Greenwood, 1B Eduardo Pinzon, RF Ted Simms and pitchers Sherman Yount, Kareem Kipling, Ricardo Barcelo, John Parker, Christopher Hines and Manny Ellenwood.
Black can't catch, his .802 career OPS wouldn't be great at DH and he's so inconsistent that he's posted an OPS below .700 in two seasons. Greenwood has nice minor league numbers, but he's never played a game in the majors and the Amigos gave him a four-year deal (3.3 million per) anyway. Pinzon is a mediocre bat for 1B, but he didn't cost very much to re-sign. Simms has power, but he also has a career .310 OBP and will be a drain on the offense, especially in that park.
Of the pitchers, only Yount had an ERA below 4.30 in season 5, but his career mark is 4.95. Parker was a solid pitcher for the Amigos, but Kipling, Ellenwood and Hines are mediocre at best (although they didn't cost much) and Barcelo has been terrible (and he got $23 million over five seasons).
The Amigos also lost 3B Dale Sedlacek in free agency, and none of the hitters they signed appear capable of matching the .882 OPS he posted in season 5.
In all, the Amigos don't appear to have done anything to help the team on either offense or defense, and they signed some very curious long-term contracts with Greenwood and Barcelo.
1. Richmond Roustabouts
Richmond's offseason pretty much only consisted of trading away SS Pat Badilla and 1B Lee Roundtree. There's nothing wrong with that, since Richmond's not ready to contend and Badilla and Roundtree were both going to cost enough in season 7 that the Roustabouts wouldn't have wanted them on the roster if they still weren't ready to contend.
The problem is what the Roustabouts got in return once they decided it was time to unload two of their most tradeable commodities. Badilla fetched SP Sammy Cedeno, C Bob Crespo and IF Rob Tracy while Roundtree brought back IF Kevin Bryant and SP Al Trajano.
None of those five players is a sure thing to be a quality major leaguer, and Bryant and Tracy are backups at best in the big leagues. Trajano and Cedeno have similar potential (Trajano has slightly better control; Cedeno throws harder), but neither will be more than a back of the rotation starter, if that. Crespo is probably the best of the bunch, as he projects to play good defense and he may be able to hold his own with the bat in the big leagues.
If you're trading away two quality players who could help several contending teams, you need to get more than a catcher with the potential to be slightly above average, two potential fourth or fifth starters and two utility infielders.
Best
5. Philadelphia Phenomenauts
After four seasons as the doormat of the AL East, the Phenomenauts climbed to third place in season 5, and now they appear to want even more than that.
Philadelphia's best move of the offseason was trading for Lee Roundtree. In that deal, discussed above, Philly picked up a first baseman with a career .949 OPS without giving up anybody who was crucial to the franchise longterm.
Philadelphia also unloaded half of Sparky Weaver's contract while picking up DH Julio Mendoza, who should at least be great as the right-handed part of a platoon in a season or two.
The Phenomenauts also decided to pick up a couple big free agents, signing LF/2B Terry O'Connor and SP Otis Upshaw. O'Connor should improve greatly upon last year's .745 OPS now that he's out of the worst hitter's park in the league, and Upshaw has a solid 4.40 career ERA and will be a definite upgrade in the rotation for Philadelphia.
The Phenomenauts still probably can't make the playoffs this season, but they should definitely set a franchise record in wins, and a winning season isn't out of the question if everything breaks right. And with some more development from the team's younger players, all four of the players Philadelphia picked up this offseason should help the team make its first real playoff push in season 7 or 8.
4. Kansas City Monarchs
The Monarchs went on a bit of a spending spree, and their timing was pretty good. With the No. 16 pick in this season's draft, they could sign Type A free agents without giving up a first-round pick, so they went out and got two.
Aside from signing OF Rob Matthews and SP Dale Rooney, the Monarchs also nabbed pitchers Denny Moore, Steven Miller and Ben Cox and re-signed Damion Rekar, all of whom will cost as much as $70 million over the next three seasons.
Those five new players replace departing free agents Julius Thomas, Brendan Henry and Mo Greer. In addition to bringing in a better group of players than they let go, the Monarchs essentially traded the 62nd and 94th picks in the draft for the 40th pick because Greer was a Type B free agent.
Greer and Henry combined for a 5.03 ERA in 299 innings for Kansas City last season. Rooney and Cox both struggled to ERAs above 5.00 last season, but Rooney still has a 3.98 career ERA and Cox is at 4.38. Together, they should be able to perform significantly better than Greer and Henry did.
And Moore has a 4.29 career ERA and was at 4.15 in season 5. Miller had a 3.74 ERA in season 5, but he's probably not really that good. Still, both pitchers should be useful for the Monarchs. And Matthews (with a .369 career OBP and .446 career SLG) is a better offensive player who's also more versatile on defense than Thomas (who had a .330 OBP and .445 SLG in season 5).
The Monarchs spent a lot of money, but it should definitely make them better. The question is whether it improves them enough for the first playoff spot in franchise history. If it was more clear that the answer is yes, they'd be higher on this list.
3. Minnesota Fatboys
Minnesota didn't do much this offseason, because the self-sustaining juggernaut generally only needs tweaking. The biggest changes are that SP Dale Rooney is gone and SS Pat Badilla has arrived.
The Fatboys had no interest in giving Rooney $10-plus million for multiple seasons, so getting two draft picks (No. 35 and 62) for him is good for the franchise. Obviously they'd have preferred for one of those picks to be a first-rounder, but they're still better off with the picks than with a pitcher they didn't really need.
Badilla isn't great and he'll be pretty expensive starting next season, but he has the ability to hit significantly better than Gerald Kim, who started 105 games at SS for Minnesota last season. And the Fatboys didn't give up anybody who figured to ever have a significant impact on their major league team to get him.
Other than that, the Fatboys traded a couple other spare parts for mediocre SP prospect Cooper Plant and they were active in Rule 5, drafting utility infielder Marty Pose and potentially useful RP Hideo Yamamoto and trading for utility infielder Phillip Trachsel. None of those players figure to see a ton of action, but they provide good depth in case of injury.
2. Nashville Twang
Nashville's offseason was a case of addition by subtraction. The Twang lost free agents Brian Hunt and Esteban Manzanillo and while they're both solid players, their subtraction from the team added three draft picks: Nos. 20, 33 and 38. Because of that, the Twang now have five picks in the top 56 to add to a farm system that is already among the best in the league.
Aside from adding some draft picks, the Twang picked up potentially solid RP Jerry Farrell in the Rule 5 draft, signed RP Enrique Posada and re-signed pitchers Pascual Vazquez and Jose Cruz. Those pitchers will cost a combined $20 million over the next two seasons and all three have the potential to be league average or slightly better.
Nashville has a wave of talented prospects at AAA ready to hit the big leagues this season and/or next season. Those players combined with this year's draft class could set the Twang up to be a major player in the NL South for many seasons to come.
1. New York Yankees
This offseason may end up hurting the Yankees in season 8 or 9, but the fact is that no team did more this offseason to help itself win the World Series in season 6 than the Yankees. The big signing, of course, was Andres Silva.
The Yankees gave the 37-year-old a guaranteed $50 million over the next four seasons, but he should be worth it for at least a season or two. Silva has a 3.53 career ERA, and his 3.11 ERA in season 5 was his best yet. He'll also be moving from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park, and he's replacing a starter who had a 4.69 ERA in season 5.
Upgrading from Otis Upshaw to Silva is probably worth 2-4 wins by itself in the regular season, but that's not really what the Yankees care about. New York has made the playoffs four seasons in a row but has only won one series and has a 7-13 record in the postseason. With Silva around to join Jay Cosby and Haywood Towers in the playoff rotation, the Yankees should be able to trot out an ace-caliber starting pitcher for every postseason game, which will make them a much tougher out.
The Yankees lost four free agents, including Upshaw, but they didn't have any interest in keeping any of them and they picked up the No. 43 pick in this season's draft because one of them was a Type B.
In addition to signing Silva, the Yankees also picked up swing man Juan Gonzales and backup CF Chris Hill. Gonzales has a 4.00 career ERA and although he posted a 5.04 mark in season 5, moving from the AL and the best hitter's park to the NL and a pitcher's park should help. Hill's a good defender (although he'd be better had he not gotten Telemaco'd in season 4) and he's hit well enough at times that he could pressure incumbent CF Daniel Jefferson for the starting job.
The Yankees also traded OF prospect Christian Reid (a tweener who appears to be borderline defensively in center field and borderline offensively in the corners) and RP Ron Hafner (a mediocre talent) for RP Paul Pearson and $6 million to cover Pearson's salary and a little extra. Pearson's upside is nice, but he's had some terrible seasons in the past and he struggles to stay healthy. Still, the worst case scenario for the Yankees is that he's either hurt for the playoffs or he pitches badly enough in the regular season that they decide not to use him much in the playoffs.
All in all, the Yankees may have added as many as 5-6 wins in the regular season and they made themselves a great deal more difficult to beat in a playoff series. If the Yankees get to the NLCS or, even better, the World Series for the first time in the next two seasons, it will be worth whatever price they end up paying for Silva's big contract down the road.
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