Florida Cottonmouths
The Cottonmouths possessed the 19th pick in the draft, however, and a large scouting budget they had limited draft resources with only $8mm budgeted for signing prospects. Florida choose to emphisis pitching, specificly young arms as they selected hurlers with 12 of their first 13 selections with the first three being teenagers. With the 19th pick in the first round the Cottonmouths selected tweener (low stamania SP) lefty softtosser Carl Winn. Winn signed quickly for slot and has pitched solidly in rookie league. Winn has good command and a plus fastball, above average slider and a decent secondary offerings. With only average health and makeup Winn was a bit of a risk, but represented very good value as this commentator only had one pitcher on the board of similar merit when Winn was selected.
In the second round the Cottonmouths selected Turner Carroll, a righthanded who is somewhat similar to Winn as neither throws with any kind of velocity. Carroll has a very good movement on his fastball and a solid change combined with a curve which projects to be league average. Carroll, is a fierce competitor with a clean delivery, the only question is how long it will take his arm to bounce back from outings. He signed for slot and represents both a good risk and a good value as Carroll is very likely to be a championship caliber ball player.
In the third round the Cottonmouths selected Rusty Rollins, JuCo lefty who is similar to Winn, but just worse as one would expect based on their relative draft positions. Rollins projects to be a fringe pitcher who will need to get used to riding the shuttle between AAA and the Majors. He won't collect a pensions.
The last noteable pick Florida made was Tony Fernadez a highschool player out of Yoder Wyoming who was the only position player drafted in the first thirteen rounds. Yoda signed at for about double slot and projects to be a corner outfielder. Fernadez has a lot of development to do, however, if he reaches his potential he could be a strong sideplatoon player, though his plate displine may be problamtic as his batting eye is below average and his ability to consistently make contact is major problem.
No other players look to contribute at the major league level, and the lop sided nature of the draft will cause some problems for Florida down the road as they were not able to pick up many minor league filler type position players in the middle to latter stages of the draft. The top of the draft was outstanding though, as Florida picked up good value while paying slot, however, with the 8th highest scouting budget in the league I feel they should have found more value in the draft, and that kept Florida out of the A range.
Grade: B
Richmond Roustabouts
Going into the draft Richmond had the 7th overall pick, and a supplemental pick in the first round (37th overall) and a large prospect war chest ($16mm). Despite that Richmond largely under spent in scouting with a budget only a mid tier scouting budget with $26mm dedicated to their cause.
With Richmond's first selection Sherry MacFarlene fell into their laps. MacFarlane the top power hitter in the draft signed for slot and will play a top notch defensive right field for the Roustabouts while hitting for tremendous power, though only solid onbase skills. With their supplemental selection Richmond selected Dustan Allen, another of the drafts top power hitters. Allan, a lefthanded hitting first baseman will be championship caliber ball player for some time to come, and while Allen wasn't the best player on the board at the time of the selection, he was very close and possibly the second best.
In the second round Richmond selected Phillips Combs, a solid glove man who will have a good career as a major leaguer though will likely never be more than a rotational player as his bat won't play as a starter, though he represented solid value. With their third round selection Jayson Gray a switch hitting high school right fielder. Gray will make contact and hit for solid power. His control of the strike zone and batting eye are his best attributes coupled with great speed and baserunning instincts. Gray again represents solid value, and will likely have a fringe career as a major leaguer.
Richmond was able to continue to add good value throughout the majority of the draft and did a nice job of building minor league depth. Couple that with the getting the two power bats with their top two picks despite a limited scouting resources resulted in an excellent draft for Richmond.
Grade: A
Nashville Twangs
Nashville entered the draft with the 25th pick in the draft, a limited prospect budget ($8mm) and bottom quartile spending on scouting. The Twangs focused on adding hitting depth as eight of their first ten picks were position players nearly all who signed for at or below slot (one above).
With their first selction Nashville selected Ken Petrov, a lefthand hitting power hitter who should develop into a league average leftfielder. Petrov looks to have good power versus both lefthanded and righthanded pitchers, but whose onbase skills project to be league average. Petrov is a good athelete who should be a high percentage basestealer, and play solid to better leftfield. Petrov has no real holes in his game, and represents a solid all around player and but offers no relative value relative to other players drafted around him.
In the second round the Twangs selected highschool second baseman Juan Gonzalez, and then agreed to his over slot contract demands. Gonzalez, will likely not get signifigant playing time at the major league level on a seasonal basis, as he projects more as a utility player, due to his solid and broad skill set: sure hands, solid range; speed, baserunning and making contact. However, his batting eye likely won't translate to league average and his ability to hit for average is somewhat questionable and he has no power at all. There were many better players on the board, and better middle infielders. The Twangs didn't deliver with this pick.
The Twang walked away with one more player who will likely make the show in Ken Pickford a third round selection out of the University of South Carolina who has tremendous power and looks to probably have more MLB at bats than Gonzalez as a strong side of a platoon at the left of the defensive spectrum. Pickford's game is fairly one dimensional, as his power develops so will he. Solid value for the third round.
The remainder of the draft was filled reasonable value players, and unsigned selection. Overall, the Twang left draft day a slightly improved organazation on absolute terms, however, a step back relative to its competitors.
Grade: C-
San Antonio Sting
The Sting, enetered the draft with the 12th overall pick and second round pick in the possesion of Oklahoma. The what the Sting did have going for it was a large scouting budget, $33mm despite having only 8mm allocated to signing prospects, which I thought was an unusual strategy considering it didn't have a second round pick, and considering it had 13mm (max drop) allocated to Internation Scouting but no real budget to bring in a players (which predictably they didn't sign). If I was running the club I might have allocated my budget differently, to try and get some value out of the internation budget.
Anyway without a second round pick the teams draft success is going to be highly dependent on the quality of its first rounder, who in this case is thirdbaseman Raul Basco. Basco, a Juco power hitter has above average power and above average disipline at the plate. He will hit from both sides of the plate, though he will struggle to put the bat on the ball. He will play enough defense to be able to hold down the hot corner, though he won't be an asset there. He has a good make, up and has projects to be fairly healthy so he has a good chance of reaching his potential, though without improved conditioning he will tend to wear down. A strong pick.
With the 93rd overall pick the Sting went with Mel Sorrano who is a good enough hitter to play in the league, but his glove doesn't play at most positions, considering his lack of power. He will likely ride the AAA-ML shuttle for a few years, but not collect a pension. The Sting, made a noble effort to recoup some value by going above slot signifigantly in a couple of places namly in the 4th round for Buddy Hermanson (1.85mm) and in the 11th round for Bill Carpenter (750k), unfortuantly the early returns are that neither of these picks will get more than a cup of coffee.
Grade: B-
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Draft Recap: AL North, AL East
AL North
Minnesota Fatboys
1st Round: Arlie Moriarty is a superb shortstop; his range is very good, his glovework is excellent, and his arm draws comparisons to Rafael Furcal. He will need a platoon partner, however; he's a solid hitter against righties, but gets eaten up by southpaws. He projects to develop plus power, rare for a shortstop. He's also very fast, but a terrible baserunner that doesn't project to get much better. Health shouldn't be a concern. Concerning the draft position, not a bad pick.
Grade: B
Rest of draft: Jamie Puffer's glove is a bit fringy for SS, and his bat doesn't play too well at 3B or 2B. Still, he's talented enough to start somewhere for someone. Reginald Aldridge and James Holmes are solid options at 2B and CF, respectively; they're not studs, but they project as excellent backups that can start for a lesser team. Howie Aspromonte is a solid platoon option at catcher against southpaws. Tim Fisher is like Puffer in that he's a fringy SS, but his bat won't play in the majors. All in all, a very nice haul, aided by a sandwich pick and two 2nd rounders.
Grade: A-
Buffalo Europeans
1st Round: 1st basemen that are drafted in the first round are almost always elite hitters. Zeus Hollins is no different. A hitter with no true weaknesses, Hollins makes good contact, drives the ball against both righties and lefties, possesses good pitch recognition skills, and most importantly, is capable of hitting moon shots. His defense at 1B is also above average. He is a bit of an injury risk. A great pick at #22.
Grade: A-
Rest of draft: Ricardo Santos and Hoss Ball are far from your prototypical ballplayers. Santos is a catcher that projects to plus-plus power, has a strong, very accurate arm, and had a reputation as the best pitch caller in amateur baseball. So why did he fall to the 40th pick overall? Santos' power is his only tool as a hitter; he doesn't drive the ball consistently enough to take advantage of his strength, his contact skills are poor, and he's an impatient hacker. Even with his power, Santos' glove will have to make up for his inability to get on base or hit for average. Ball is a defensive whiz at SS, perhaps the best high school fielder in the country. Ball has good power, and drives the ball well against lefties. However, he's a complete zero against right-handers, has a tendency to chase the high fastball, and worst, cannot make contact at the plate, projecting to strike out a third of the time (maybe more) at the major league level. He'll probably make it as a defensive replacement that can fill in occasionally against lefties without swing and miss stuff. No one else drafted really sticks out as a major league prospect.
Grade: C+
Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims
1st Round: Cristian Stevenson certainly has talent; he doesn't strike out much, and he possesses excellent power to all fields. He's also very durable, and has a clean bill of health. However, he's a right-handed 1st baseman with poor hands, a weakness against right-handed pitchers, and only average pitch recognition skills. He projects as a starting 1B, for sure, but his inability to hit righties with authority will likely prevent him from becoming a star of any sort. Not a terrible pick, but they could have done better with the 11th overall pick. Both Zeus Hollins (see Buffalo above) at #22 and Mike Jarvis (pick #26) project better.
Grade: C
Rest of draft: Al Sierra's bat will easily play; his defense at catcher is also adequate, although nothing special. He does have durability issues, and is a long ways from his ceiling, but he's a keeper. Javier Lee is your classic "take and rake" slugger, with great patience and raw power, but little else. He'll probably become your classic Quad-A slugger. Pat Reynolds projects as a very good defensive 2B or a fair CF. Unfortunately, his bat won't get him out of the minors. Not much to see here outside of Sierra.
Grade: C+
Montreal Grand Orange
1st Round: With the 5th overall pick, the Grand Orange selected Bennie Taylor, a talented young southpaw with excellent stuff, the ability to get both lefties and righties out, and an uncanny ability to generate ground balls at will. He also draws raves from his HS coaches as "intelligent, coachable, hardworking, and competitive." Yet this pick still feels like a reach to me for two reasons: control and stamina. Taylor's control isn't awful, but it's still below average for a prospect, and doesn't project to get any better than average. It'll likely keep him from becoming a star. He's also no workhorse; scouts don't expect him to be able to pitch past the 6th inning with any consistency. Hideki Martin, picked 18 spots later, looks like a superior pitcher.
Grade: C+
Rest of draft: Butch Cashman might be a fringe ML pitcher in the right park; his control is average, he struggles against lefties, and gives up tons of fly balls. Nothing special. Elston McMurtry's splits and stuff scream "AAA innings eater." His 'stash is definitely major league, if it's any consolation. Torii Stevenson, a 7th round find, is pure poetry with the leather at SS, but he probably couldn't hit adequately with an aluminum bat. There's not much else here with any major league potential.
Grade: D+
AL East
New York Metropolitans
1st Round: n/a
Rest of draft: Umm...so how about those Mets? They're in the World Series again!
Grade: F
Boston Red Sox
1st Round: Willie Valdez? Yuck. Valdez has good, but not great power, solid contact skills, and a fairly good batting eye. Considering his lack of defensive skill (he projects as a below average 1B) and lack of any dominant offensive tool, Valdez needs to be able to drive the ball effectively against both righties and lefties to be worth the pick. He can't. Valdez hits lefties very well, but as a right-handed hitter, struggles against same-handed pitchers. He projects to someday get the short end of a platoon at 1B. That's not a first rounder; that might not even be a 2nd rounder. Granted, the Sox are in win-now mode, and Valdez is 22 and should be able to help very soon. That doesn't excuse the overdraft, but it does make it understandable.
Grade: D+
Rest of draft: Mac Robinson has great contact skills, and hits well against lefties; he'll be ideal as a cheap platoon right fielder soon. Billy Richardson has the range and glovework to be a very playable CF, never strikes out, and is a very fast, intelligent baserunner. However, he'll have to learn to drive the ball better to earn a starting role; he looks like a very useful backup for now. Orlando Mercado is your run-of-the-mill great glove/no-hit SS. He might make it as a defensive specialist. A reasonable, if unspectacular haul.
Grade: B-
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
1st Round: Benny Bell is a lefty with excellent command, a live arm, and is death against lefties, while holding his own against righties. He's not a health risk, should be able throw a healthy number of innings, and possesses two plus pitches. What prevents me from calling this pick an unmitigated success is that Bell lacks even an average third pitch. The pitch, a curveball, is rudimentary at best right now, and doesn't project to get much better. Bell is talented enough to get by at the ML level anyways, but that weakness might prevent him from becoming something special.
Grade: B-
Rest of draft: Bud Crosby has 5 pitches, ranging from fringy to bush-league. With even average stuff, he'd make a reasonable #5 starter. As is, he's a long shot to be anything more than a mopup guy. No one else has an ML ceiling.
Grade: D
Philadelphia Phenomenauts
1st Round: Lefty Roosevelt is actually a right-handed reliever. He's tremendously durable, and has excellent stamina for a reliever; he'll be able to easily give a team 120+ innings. He's also very effective against either lefties or righties, and has no problem pounding the strike zone. However, his stuff is questionable; he has an excellent changeup, but his sinker is somewhat flat, and doesn't have enough bite to keep hitters from teeing off of it. He doesn't have any other pitches, either, which can certainly pose a problem. Considering the pick, Roosevelt seems a bit risky of a selection.
Grade: C
Rest of draft: Edgar Velazquez looks like a nice find; he's a switch-hitting 2B that projects to be average with the glove and has some pop. He's a fringe starter, or a quality backup. Lyle Hayes is a better defender at the same position as Velazquez, and has great bat control, but has absolutely no power. Rudy Hunt looks like a major league pitcher, and certainly would be if he could throw strikes with consistency. He can't.
Grade: B
Minnesota Fatboys
1st Round: Arlie Moriarty is a superb shortstop; his range is very good, his glovework is excellent, and his arm draws comparisons to Rafael Furcal. He will need a platoon partner, however; he's a solid hitter against righties, but gets eaten up by southpaws. He projects to develop plus power, rare for a shortstop. He's also very fast, but a terrible baserunner that doesn't project to get much better. Health shouldn't be a concern. Concerning the draft position, not a bad pick.
Grade: B
Rest of draft: Jamie Puffer's glove is a bit fringy for SS, and his bat doesn't play too well at 3B or 2B. Still, he's talented enough to start somewhere for someone. Reginald Aldridge and James Holmes are solid options at 2B and CF, respectively; they're not studs, but they project as excellent backups that can start for a lesser team. Howie Aspromonte is a solid platoon option at catcher against southpaws. Tim Fisher is like Puffer in that he's a fringy SS, but his bat won't play in the majors. All in all, a very nice haul, aided by a sandwich pick and two 2nd rounders.
Grade: A-
Buffalo Europeans
1st Round: 1st basemen that are drafted in the first round are almost always elite hitters. Zeus Hollins is no different. A hitter with no true weaknesses, Hollins makes good contact, drives the ball against both righties and lefties, possesses good pitch recognition skills, and most importantly, is capable of hitting moon shots. His defense at 1B is also above average. He is a bit of an injury risk. A great pick at #22.
Grade: A-
Rest of draft: Ricardo Santos and Hoss Ball are far from your prototypical ballplayers. Santos is a catcher that projects to plus-plus power, has a strong, very accurate arm, and had a reputation as the best pitch caller in amateur baseball. So why did he fall to the 40th pick overall? Santos' power is his only tool as a hitter; he doesn't drive the ball consistently enough to take advantage of his strength, his contact skills are poor, and he's an impatient hacker. Even with his power, Santos' glove will have to make up for his inability to get on base or hit for average. Ball is a defensive whiz at SS, perhaps the best high school fielder in the country. Ball has good power, and drives the ball well against lefties. However, he's a complete zero against right-handers, has a tendency to chase the high fastball, and worst, cannot make contact at the plate, projecting to strike out a third of the time (maybe more) at the major league level. He'll probably make it as a defensive replacement that can fill in occasionally against lefties without swing and miss stuff. No one else drafted really sticks out as a major league prospect.
Grade: C+
Syracuse Fightin' Boeheims
1st Round: Cristian Stevenson certainly has talent; he doesn't strike out much, and he possesses excellent power to all fields. He's also very durable, and has a clean bill of health. However, he's a right-handed 1st baseman with poor hands, a weakness against right-handed pitchers, and only average pitch recognition skills. He projects as a starting 1B, for sure, but his inability to hit righties with authority will likely prevent him from becoming a star of any sort. Not a terrible pick, but they could have done better with the 11th overall pick. Both Zeus Hollins (see Buffalo above) at #22 and Mike Jarvis (pick #26) project better.
Grade: C
Rest of draft: Al Sierra's bat will easily play; his defense at catcher is also adequate, although nothing special. He does have durability issues, and is a long ways from his ceiling, but he's a keeper. Javier Lee is your classic "take and rake" slugger, with great patience and raw power, but little else. He'll probably become your classic Quad-A slugger. Pat Reynolds projects as a very good defensive 2B or a fair CF. Unfortunately, his bat won't get him out of the minors. Not much to see here outside of Sierra.
Grade: C+
Montreal Grand Orange
1st Round: With the 5th overall pick, the Grand Orange selected Bennie Taylor, a talented young southpaw with excellent stuff, the ability to get both lefties and righties out, and an uncanny ability to generate ground balls at will. He also draws raves from his HS coaches as "intelligent, coachable, hardworking, and competitive." Yet this pick still feels like a reach to me for two reasons: control and stamina. Taylor's control isn't awful, but it's still below average for a prospect, and doesn't project to get any better than average. It'll likely keep him from becoming a star. He's also no workhorse; scouts don't expect him to be able to pitch past the 6th inning with any consistency. Hideki Martin, picked 18 spots later, looks like a superior pitcher.
Grade: C+
Rest of draft: Butch Cashman might be a fringe ML pitcher in the right park; his control is average, he struggles against lefties, and gives up tons of fly balls. Nothing special. Elston McMurtry's splits and stuff scream "AAA innings eater." His 'stash is definitely major league, if it's any consolation. Torii Stevenson, a 7th round find, is pure poetry with the leather at SS, but he probably couldn't hit adequately with an aluminum bat. There's not much else here with any major league potential.
Grade: D+
AL East
New York Metropolitans
1st Round: n/a
Rest of draft: Umm...so how about those Mets? They're in the World Series again!
Grade: F
Boston Red Sox
1st Round: Willie Valdez? Yuck. Valdez has good, but not great power, solid contact skills, and a fairly good batting eye. Considering his lack of defensive skill (he projects as a below average 1B) and lack of any dominant offensive tool, Valdez needs to be able to drive the ball effectively against both righties and lefties to be worth the pick. He can't. Valdez hits lefties very well, but as a right-handed hitter, struggles against same-handed pitchers. He projects to someday get the short end of a platoon at 1B. That's not a first rounder; that might not even be a 2nd rounder. Granted, the Sox are in win-now mode, and Valdez is 22 and should be able to help very soon. That doesn't excuse the overdraft, but it does make it understandable.
Grade: D+
Rest of draft: Mac Robinson has great contact skills, and hits well against lefties; he'll be ideal as a cheap platoon right fielder soon. Billy Richardson has the range and glovework to be a very playable CF, never strikes out, and is a very fast, intelligent baserunner. However, he'll have to learn to drive the ball better to earn a starting role; he looks like a very useful backup for now. Orlando Mercado is your run-of-the-mill great glove/no-hit SS. He might make it as a defensive specialist. A reasonable, if unspectacular haul.
Grade: B-
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
1st Round: Benny Bell is a lefty with excellent command, a live arm, and is death against lefties, while holding his own against righties. He's not a health risk, should be able throw a healthy number of innings, and possesses two plus pitches. What prevents me from calling this pick an unmitigated success is that Bell lacks even an average third pitch. The pitch, a curveball, is rudimentary at best right now, and doesn't project to get much better. Bell is talented enough to get by at the ML level anyways, but that weakness might prevent him from becoming something special.
Grade: B-
Rest of draft: Bud Crosby has 5 pitches, ranging from fringy to bush-league. With even average stuff, he'd make a reasonable #5 starter. As is, he's a long shot to be anything more than a mopup guy. No one else has an ML ceiling.
Grade: D
Philadelphia Phenomenauts
1st Round: Lefty Roosevelt is actually a right-handed reliever. He's tremendously durable, and has excellent stamina for a reliever; he'll be able to easily give a team 120+ innings. He's also very effective against either lefties or righties, and has no problem pounding the strike zone. However, his stuff is questionable; he has an excellent changeup, but his sinker is somewhat flat, and doesn't have enough bite to keep hitters from teeing off of it. He doesn't have any other pitches, either, which can certainly pose a problem. Considering the pick, Roosevelt seems a bit risky of a selection.
Grade: C
Rest of draft: Edgar Velazquez looks like a nice find; he's a switch-hitting 2B that projects to be average with the glove and has some pop. He's a fringe starter, or a quality backup. Lyle Hayes is a better defender at the same position as Velazquez, and has great bat control, but has absolutely no power. Rudy Hunt looks like a major league pitcher, and certainly would be if he could throw strikes with consistency. He can't.
Grade: B
Draft Review - NL West
Anaheim
First Round: Lance Cyr offers some impressive split ratings and control, but average pitches. Which of these forces will win the tug of war?
Grade: B-
The rest: Sandwich pick Rick Tyner will have great split rating and pitches, but subpar control. Sammy Mateo looks to be a subpar to average C, defensively, but will be a nice hitter when he can play (~60 durability). 3rd rounder Jorel Bush and 7th rounder Mo Nicholson will likely need platoon partners (Bush hits righties, Nicholson hits lefties), but provide can hold their own otherwise. 5th rounder Andres Encarnacion continues the trend of great ratings (his being splits) addled by average ones (control and pitches). George Henderson probably is best suited to be a DH, but he’ll hit.
Grade: A (no surefire studs, but a lot of quality players)
Boise
First Round: No pick
Grade: Incomplete
The rest: Anthony Fuller was drafted as a 2B, but probably can’t stay there. His bat makes him a borderline corner player. Shea Carver projects to have a good 2B glove, but his bat might not be enough.
Grade: C
Colorado Springs
First Round: With the 3rd pick, the Silver Stars chose Chris Mason. A power threat of the highest order (literally; his projected power is 100) and projected to be a useful right fielder. The only “knocks” would be a sub-awesome contact and vR ratings and very low speed.
Grade: A
The rest: 2nd rounder Marvin Stern projects to provide GG-caliber D in CF, but will probably have to “hit” near the bottom of the lineup. SS Stubby Reith projects to be oh-so-close to an average defensive SS. He’ll need to play up the middle to justify his underwhelming bat. Also, with a name like Stubby, he’s sure to be voted “Most Likely to Kill a Heckler.”
Grade: C+
Tacoma
First Round: Cliff Hawkins. What else needs to be said? How about future MVP candidate? How about 46 extra-base hits in his first 66 games? Opposing pitchers might as well start counseling now to get a head start.
Grade: A (you’d have to try pretty hard to screw up the first overall pick)
The rest: Kevin Morris has talent, but his durability/stamina combo will probably push him into the bullpen. Sean Bailey projects to be a decent 1B prospect, but with Hawkins in the fold, his best bet lies outside Tacoma.
Grade: B-
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