Monday, October 13, 2008

AL East Draft Recap

Boston Red Sox

1st Round

Boston stuck with its college centric approach by picked up Troy State’s senior SSWoody Hume, the last top tier bat of the first round. Hume immediately draws comparisons to current Boston 3B Darron Jenkins as he combines an excellent approach with top notch power. His contact and plate discipline are middling and isn’t dynamic on the basepaths. There is little question that he won’t be able to stick at SS, but his bat should be more than adequate for third base where his glove and range will be most suited. He might be athletic enough to stick at 2B but it would likely be a stretch. However, Boston didn’t draft him for his defense and his bat is good enough for a MLB corner spot. A great value for the pick.

A

Rest of Draft

Boston focused on power as they picked up CF Ed Malone, 1B Douglas Ashby, and DH Brian McCorley with their 2nd, 5th, and 6th round pick respectively. Only Malone looks like an everyday player as his power is intriguing with his ability to play a solid 2B or below average CF. His approach at the plate approach and makeup are big question marks but his risk-reward value makes the pick quite worthwhile. He is at the very least a MLB bench player and his ceiling is a 2B with 30+ HRs. Ashby and McCorley have little to no defensive value which diminishes the value of their power, if either of these two make it to big league is unlikely it will be with Boston. The Sox picked up RHP RP Eddie Buehrle, a college closer who compliments an above average fastball and curve with decent control and average-ish splits. His weaknesses are that his slider is very hittable and his durability makes him a fringe MLB RP.

B

New York Metropolitans

1st Round

This season the Mets traded in their last few amateur scouts for a bingo ball hopper as their method for drafting players. The reigning World Champs felt their resources would be better spent elsewhere and got exactly what they paid for. RP Ronald Stone is unspectacular in everyway aside from his plus-plus changeup and great curve. Everything else is downright average or below. There were better pitchers available but its not like the Mets would know or care. As long as they keep winning championships I don’t think their fans will care either.

F

Rest of the draft

They used their first eight selections on high school and JUCO pitchers. However, none are likely to see a day in the majors. The closest is 2nd round selection Earl Robertson who if it were not for his poor control could be a decent reliever. His splits are solid with two decent pitches and one bad one. If he does make it to the majors it will be a cup of coffee and not with the Mets.

F

Philadelphia Phenomenauts

1st Round

Philadelphia used their perpetual top ten pick in the draft to pick up the top hitter in the draft, JUCO RF Jeff Stein. The 2nd overall pick summons every ounce of his 5’10, 188 lbs frame to generate his top tier raw power, but what sets him apart from the rest of the crowd is his excellent approach. There seems to be no holes in his offensive game as he hits both lefties and righties with equal aplomb. The question will be if opposing pitchers will be able to throw a pitch past him with his potentially perfect contact skill and his excellent batting eye. His defense will be adequate for RF and his baserunning skills are nothing to get excited about but combined with his offense there doesn’t seem to be any glaring weakness in his game. The only question about him is whether his makeup will allow him to reach his ceiling. He is a potential superstar.

A+

Rest of the draft

The Regulators focused on adding college hitters using their first seven selections that included a supplemental pick and two 2nd round picks and didn’t select a pitcher until 175th pick. The best of the bunch is Haywood Flair, an offensive 2B with excellent contact and decent raw power. He has trouble with RHP and isn’t great against LHP either which why it will be important to develop his defensive skills so he can stay at the keystone. Felipe Rodriguez has a similar game to Stein’s with better plate discipline but considerably less power and problems with RHP. It will be interesting to see what position James Campbell ends up at since he doesn’t have the range for 2B or the bat for 3B. These guys all do things well, but each one has at least one glaring hole in their game. With five picks in the first 80, Philadelphia has to be disappointed they didn’t come away with more potential everyday players.

C-

Pittsburg Pug Dogs

1st Round

With the 15th pick of the draft the Pug Dogs selected arguably the 2nd best high school pitcher in flamethrowing Jared Doerr. At 6’7, Doerr generates tremendous velocity with good control and his stamina is second to none. He possesses two plus pitches, his fastball and change-up, along with an above average curve and an average slider. The question mark in his game are his splits as they are merely average and his ability to take the ball every fifth day. While he projects to be a #3-4 starter, he is a good pickup for a team needing pitching considering the shallow pitching class.

B-

Rest of draft

Pittsburg went more aggressive in the middle of their draft which cost them considerable organizational depth and didn’t sign a pick past the 15th round. There isn’t a player that profiles as an everyday MLB player, however, they did pick up JUCO pitcher Rick Clement in the 2nd round who projects to a long reliever or 5th starter on a non-contender. His ability to eat innings on a consistent basis and good control are his strengths but his splits are average to below average. While his array of pitches aren’t awful, none will give MLB hitters consistent trouble. Pitt picked up two power hitters in the mid rounds in Bryant Hartman and Donte Crosby. Hartman has the better offensive game being a switch hitter and should be able to hit left handers while Crosby has a less offensive upside but has the potential to play a serviceable 3B.

D

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Top Ten LF Prospects

*Reminder: Left fielders must project within 10 points of each defensive rating's recommendations:

RNG of at least 45
GLV of at least 45
AS of at least 40
AA of at least 40


10. Benito Belliard
Washington D.C. Bureaucrats
Bats: R
23 years old, AAA
Drafted (College FR) in the 1st round (45th overall, Season 4)

Belliard's power is his calling card. He's in his 5th minor league season, blasting 172 homers along the way, including 47 (and counting) this season. He makes solid contact and is fairly disciplined at the plate. Belliard shouldn't have any problems hitting for average, although he does have a fair platoon split (hitting better against LHP). Belliard is very fast, but a mediocre baserunner. He's also a bit slow in reacting to fly balls. His arm and glovework out there are both adequate. Currently sporting a gaudy 1.107 OPS in AAA, it's a bit of a mystery as to why he's not on the ML roster right now. The Bureaucrats were in the thick of the Wildcard race until recently (and still have an outside shot), and Belliard is probably better than incumbent LF Preston Grieve right now.


9. Lazy Rigney
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Bats: R
21 years old, Low A
Drafted (College JR) in the 1st round (17th overall, Season 8)

Among the best contact hitters in the low minors, Rigney is also Wichita State's all-time leader in single-season batting average. The man can flat-out rake. He has an excellent swing, one that's very effective against righties, but almost otherworldly against lefties. His raw power only rates as a hair above average, but his swing makes that power play up a full grade. He will chase bad pitches, but his hand-eye coordination is so good that he can still line a good fastball at the shoulders into the gaps, or golf an ankle-high curveball down the left-field line. He's a solid LF, but doesn't have the athleticism or arm to play in right. Lazy isn't his birthname, but a nickname he earned in middle school that's stuck with him ever since. Not surprisingly, he's difficult to motivate, and looked terribly out of shape during training sessions. It'll take a hell of a coach to get the best of him.


8. Denny Abercrombie
Buffalo Europeans
Bats: R
20 years old, High A
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (17th overall, Season 6)

Abercrombie is a natural left fielder. He's very fluid out there, with little wasted motion, and makes a beeline for the ball every time. He's also very sure-handed, already establishing himself as a playmaker that makes even the most difficult catches look easy. At the plate, Abercrombie profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat. He has very good power and patience, and should be able to maintain a reasonable batting average against both lefties and righties. Strangely though, Abercrombie isn't a very good pull hitter, preferring to drive the ball to right field. He's not very big, but has a lot of lean muscle; scouts swear they've seen him hit the ball 450 feet the other way in batting practice.


7. Enrique Melendez
Ottawa Otters
Bats: L
20 years old, AA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (16th overall, Season 6)

Melendez has no weaknesses as a hitter, unless you count his complete inability to lay down a bunt. He has no platoon split, plus power, excellent contact skills, a mechanically sound swing, and solid patience at the plate. He accelerates surprisingly well, allowing him to cover a lot of ground in left with just average speed. Melendez is also one of the more intelligent players in the minors; he carries a copy of Ted Williams' The Science of Hitting whereever he goes, and diligently studies videos breaking down his swing and approach against opposing pitchers.


6. Jesus Benitez
Philadelphia Phenomenauts
Bats: S
21 years old, AAA
International FA, signed to a $20.1 million deal (Season 8)

Just signed out of Nicaragua. Benitez is probably the best contact hitter in minor league baseball, and would rank among the best in the majors as well. He has good power and patience, and is equally skilled from each side of the plate. Continuing the theme, he's another top LF prospect that has absolutely no idea how to bunt. In Benitez's case, he didn't even know what "bunting" was (coaches had to ask other players "Como se dice "bunt?" and Benitez still didn't understand the translation, either). Benitez has good speed, which translates over to his defense; he could play LF in the bigs today, and has room for growth. Benitez was given a very substantial signing bonus, but hasn't let the money spoil him; coaches call him "tireless" in his pursuit to become a better ballplayer.


5. Stuart Stahl
San Antonio Sting
Bats: R
21 years old, AAA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (16th overall, Season 5)

Stahl is easily a major-league caliber hitter right now. He doesn't strike out, hits the ball with authority against all pitchers, and has very good raw power. A converted 1B from his high school days; it shows in the field. Stahl is fairly fast, but never takes the shortest route to the ball, and occasionally muffs a few plays when he's near the fence. He throws like you'd expect a 1B to. An asset offensively, but like Benitez and Melendez, an atrocious bunter. During drills, he managed to completely miss on half of his pitches, and either popped up or fouled off the rest. Just awful, although not really important.


4. Marc Collier
Los Angeles Hangars
Bats: R
23 years old, AA
Drafted (College SR) in the 1st round (9th overall, Season 7)

Collier gives opposing right-handed pitchers nightmares. He has tremendous power, and seems to use every ounce of that power on every swing he makes against same-handed pitchers, sending ball after ball into the stratosphere. He's not nearly the same force of nature against southpaws, but can certainly hold his own. He does chase bad pitches, and will strike out occassionally, so he's certainly not without flaws. His defense in left is iffy at best. He's not fast enough to cover the LCF gap or balls hit down the line, and will botch plays that should be fairly routine for an ML defender. The bat will definitely play, though.


3. Felix McDowell
Cheyenne Tackleberries
Bats: L
20 years old, High A
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (13th overall, Season 6)

McDowell is one of the best opposite-field hitters you will see. He has outstanding bat control, and has a fantastic inside-out swing that results in a ton of singles and doubles to right field, a la Joe Mauer. And yet, he still manages to have plus power; he projects to hit 30 homers per year in his prime, opposite-field swing and all. A terror against RHP, but he's easily good enough against southpaws to merit everyday playing time. He's a tremendously hard worker, but he's a long shot to stick at 2nd base, lacking the quickness or hands to play in the infield. A shift to LF should be imminent, where he projects as a plus defender with plenty of range.


2. Dmitri Henderson
Cheyenne Tackleberries
Bats: R
21 years old, AAA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (2nd overall, Season 5)

The other of Cheyenne's two prized corner outfield prospects, assuming McDowell counts as a left fielder. Henderson rates as an above average major league hitter across the board; he doesn't strike out, has an excellent swing that should result in some gaudy batting averages, and displays fantastic patience and power. Don't be surprised to see him put up several .300/.400/.500 seasons at his peak. He also has good speed and awareness on the basepaths; while he's not a major threat to steal, he does a great job of picking his battles when taking the extra base. He's classified as a right fielder, where his glove would play, but his arm is a bit weak for the position.


1. Tony Guerrero
Phildelphia Phenomenauts
Bats: R
22 years old, AA
Drafted (College SO) in the 1st round (1st overall, Season 6)

Guerrero has outstanding power, but has struck out in just 11.6% of his at-bats in the minors. In addition, he absolutely destroys lefties, while doing plenty of damage against righties. He has solid patience; while he could stand to walk a bit more, that's just nitpicking. Guerrero's a future .300 hitter with legitimate 45-50 homer pop, and should be an annual All-Star candidate. The Sting and Phenomenauts have both toyed with the idea of playing him at 2B; he's responded by letting countless 4-hoppers dribble by him as he lumbers over helplessly, sometimes attempting a last-ditch lunge at the ball as it rolls past his outstretched glove. Needless to say, he's just not mobile enough for the position. His defense in LF, on the other hand, gets high marks; he's masterful at positioning himself, and plays the fence very well.



Friday, October 10, 2008

Top Ten 3B Prospects

*Reminder: Third basemen must come within 5 points of each defensive rating's recommendations:

Range of at least 60
Glove of at least 65
Arm Strength of at least 70
Arm Accuracy of at least 65

10. Harry Martin
Iowa City Comics
Bats: S
24 years old, AA
Drafted (College SR) in the 3rd round (106th overall, Season 6)

Martin has plus-plus power, his only real tool on offense. He whiffs a healthy amount (although not as much as some other all-or-nothing guys), and has little semblance of big-league plate discipline. He's a switch hitter, but is more comfortable hitting left-handed. His defense is average; the glove will certainly play at the position. Martin has excellent durability, but has played the last few years with plantar fasciitis. He's tough enough to play through the pain, but the team's doctors worry that this might lead to a cascade of other injuries. He may be one-dimensional, but top-shelf power and capable 3B defense is enough to warrant a spot on the list, especially at a position this thin.


9. Joshua Munoz
Ottawa Otters
Bats: R
20 years old, High A
Drafted (HS) in the 3rd round (101st overall, Season 6)

Munoz's hitting ability doesn't resemble what you'd expect from a top prospect. His contact ability and batting eye both leave something to be desired, and while he has solid power, his struggles against righties will make him a questionable candidate as an everyday player. The only reason you'd consider him as a starter is his glovework, which is excellent at the position. A converted shortstop, Munoz has excellent hands, good lateral quickness, and a decent arm that's plenty accurate enough for 3B. Not the most mature player; he gets ejected for petty reasons, and doesn't appear to be serious about getting better.


8. Alvin Smith
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
Bats: L
22 years old, AAA
Drafted (College FR) in the 2nd round (69th overall, Season 5)

Smith has a very long swing, which leads to a ton of strikeouts, and some unimpressive batting averages. He's also capable of hitting a baseball very, very far. Smith has a reverse platoon split, hitting better against southpaws than right-handers, although he's solid enough where he could merit playing time against righties as well. His batting eye projects as about average. Smith is a solid defender, getting to all of the balls you'd expect him to, with pretty good glovework, a decent arm, and fair accuracy on his throws. A true gamer, Smith is always ready to play, and very durable. The first 3B listed that probably merits everyday playing time in his prime.


7. Clayton Osborne
Tacoma Downpour
Bats: R
21 years old, AA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (32nd overall, Season 5)
Osbourne opens his hips up too early and doesn't let the ball travel deep enough into the zone, which saps some of his power. However, he has great bat control; while his contact skills are merely decent, he hits nothing but screamers against right-handed pitching, while losing little against lefties. He does love swinging early in the count, and expands his strike zone when he falls behind; while he's able to foul these pitches off, his approach doesn't lead to many walks. Defensively, Osbourne's best tool is his strong arm, although his accuracy is a bit questionable. Osbourne's a born leader; he's very vocal in the dugout and clubhouse, and is determined to lead by example as well. The kid dedicates every free moment he has to the game. A real pro, even at the youthful age of 21.


6. Roy Cooke
Anaheim Anteaters
Bats: R
18 years old, Rookie League
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (30th overall, Season 8)

Cooke can struggle to make contact at times, but when he connects, he really puts a charge into the ball. An excellent line drive hitter with solid pure power as well, Cooke should be able to hit for a pretty good average despite his strikeouts. Cooke doesn't appear to have the greatest grasp of the strike zone, chasing pitches letter high and trying to golf pitches at his ankles. His defense at third should be good; while his range and arm accuracy are merely decent, he vacuums up grounders effortlessly, and has enough arm strength to gun runners down from his knees. Cooke isn't a durability or injury risk.


5. Luis Alvarez
Las Vegas Armijos
Bats: L
18 years old, Rookie League
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (34th overall, Season 8)

Drafted as a shortstop, there's a good chance Alvarez will have to move to third. He has excellent straight-line speed, but doesn't cover much ground at short despite his athleticism. He's a natural at third base, where his range is more of an asset than weakness. His glovework and arm are both what you'd expect from a converted shortstop (excellent). He's good enough to win several Gold Gloves in his career if he makes the switch. As a hitter, Alvarez has trouble hitting quality breaking stuff, especially when behind in the count. That results in a healthy number of strikeouts. However, he's an excellent fastball hitter, and has a knack for shooting the ball into the gaps. He has better power than you'd expect from a player of his size. He does have good patience at the plate; combined with his line-drive swing, sprinter-like speed, and rapidly improving baserunning skills, and you have an ideal top-of-the-order threat.


4. Jared Kraemer
New York Yankees
Bats: L
19 years old, Low A
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (30th overall, Season 7)

Kraemer profiles a bit like Mike Lowell, with a bit less pop, and a bit more batting average. He has a sweet line drive swing, and has pretty good raw power. He works the count well, drawing a decent number of walks, but also racking up a fair share of strikeouts. Kraemer fields the position very well; he's very quick on his feet, always fields the ball cleanly, and shows off a strong, accurate arm. He's a hard worker, always trying to get better; the vets should love him. He was a highly recruited QB in high school, but tore his PCL after being blindsided by a 230 pound defensive end (the left tackle was subsequently benched for the season). You could make a pretty good case that the players ranked 4-6 could be placed in any order; indeed, there's little separating them on this list.


3. Byron Blake
Montreal Grand Orange
Bats: R
18 years old, Low A
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (9th overall, Season 8)

Like Luis Alvarez, Blake was drafted as a shortstop. He projects to have better range than Alvarez, though, making him a more likely candidate to stick. Still, he'd probably be well-served to make the switch; his arm and glovework are a bit suspect at short, but turn into assets at the hot corner. Like Alvarez, he'd be either a poor fielding shortstop, or a Gold Glove-caliber 3B. Blake has wand-like bat control. He makes excellent contact, and drills the ball with authority seemingly every time he's up. He projects to develop average power. His plate discipline could use a lot of work; he has all kinds of trouble picking up the spin on a tight breaking ball. He flails at sliders low and away, and will flinch when caught off-guard by a good breaking ball that breaks over the inside corner. A bit raw at this stage, but he should be a good one.


2. Raul Blasco
San Antonio Sting
Bats: R
21 years old, High A
Drafted (College SO) in the 1st round (12th overall, Season 7)

When Blasco makes contact, he absolutely crushes the ball. He has very good raw power, but it plays even better than that because of his ability to connect with the sweet spot of the bat with such high frequency. The swing can be a bit long; not surprisingly, Blasco is somewhat prone to striking out. His plate discipline isn't an issue. Blasco is an average defensive player. His bat should carry him to an All-Star game or two in the future, though.


1. Woody Hume
Boston Red Sox
Bats: R
22 years old, High A
Drafted (College SR) in the 1st round (19th overall, Season 8)


Hume projects similarly to Raul Blasco, but with more raw power and significantly better defense. Hume's swing is about as good as you'll see from a right-handed hitter. He generates excellent torque with his lower half, keeps his body well-balanced, and absolutely unloads on the ball. He can hit for both power and average, and doesn't have a platoon split. His plate discipline and contact skills could both use a bit of work, but neither project to be serious flaws. Hume was drafted as a shortstop, but there isn't a single good scout that will tell you that Hume can stick there. He's quick on his feet, but isn't particularly fast; his range projects as very good at third, but won't cut it at short. His glovework is excellent; he's particularly good at charging and barehanding bunts down the third base line. His arm is pretty good at third base, but he just can't make the throw deep in the hole at shortstop. Hume does a great job protecting himself from injury, and shows up to play every day. A well-conditioned athlete, he can play a full season without wearing down.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Season 8 NL West Draft Recap

Anaheim Anteaters

First round: The Anteaters took 3B Roy Cooke with the 30th overall pick. Cooke has mediocre contact skills and patience, but he has the potential for good power. He also has a tremendous approach at the plate against both righties and lefties. Defensively, he should be about average. His durability and health are both good enough that he should be able to stay in the lineup most of the time during his prime. Considering how long Anaheim had to wait to pick, getting a potentially good starter is a nice haul.

Grade: A

Other picks: Nobody else stands out as a future big league regular, but there are some interesting players. Pitcher Solly Melville has an excellent repertoire of pitches (though he should stop throwing the palmball), but his control is spotty and he has trouble jamming hitters on either side of the plate. LF Darryl Logan has a fantastic eye and good ability to make contact, but he has very little power and he struggles to center the ball on the bat. RF Jim Corder has tremendous power, but he swings at too many pitches and doesn't make nearly enough contact. Benny Ozuna has good power and a great eye, but he has little real value since he'd pretty much be limited to pinch-hitting against lefties in the big leagues.

Grade: C-

Boise Mashers

First round: The Mashers took CF Carl Dransfeldt with the 23rd overall pick. Dransfeldt makes good contact and has very good patience. His power's just OK and while he doesn't have a platoon split, he doesn't have a great approach at the plate either. Defensively, his range may be stretched in center field, but he projects to be fairly surehanded. He'll also need a day off here and there as he's not the most durable player. As long as he can stay in center, he should be a solid starter.

Grade: B+

Other picks: SS Teddy Trunk projects to be fantastic across the board defensively. Unfortunately, defensive replacement is probably his ceiling as very good patience is the only offensive skill he has. His contact is mediocre and his power and approach are even worse. Dee Knotts projects to have very good control and decent pitches, but he doesn't hide the ball well from batters on either side. Heinie Browne has good contact potential and good range, but his glove isn't really good enough to play second base and, even if it was, the rest of his offense wouldn't be good enough for him to be more than a defensive replacement.

Grade: D+

Colorado Springs Silver Stars

First round: The Silver Stars had the No. 1 overall pick, and they used it on starting pitcher Jack Leslie. Leslie projects to have pinpoint control and excellent action on his pitches, especially against right-handed hitters. His pitches aren't fantastic, but they're certainly good: a very good four-seam fastball, a good curveball and a decent changeup and cut fastball; the slider is the only weak pitch in the bunch. His stamina isn't great, but it's good enough to go at least seven innings regularly, and he bounces back quickly; he could pitch in a four-man rotation. His health isn't good, but it's not disastrous either. With the first pick, you hope to get a potential MVP or Cy Young winner, and Colorado Springs did that.

Grade: A+

Other picks: There's good news and bad news here. The bad news is that only one other player has the potential to even reach the big leagues, realistically. The good news is that player could be good enough to make a real impact. The Silver Stars took reliever Orlando Martinez in the third round, and though he's struggled this season and actually hasn't pitched in quite some time, he does have good potential. He projects to have OK control, good stuff against both lefties and righties, a good fastball and a solid curveball (plus a poor changeup). If he keeps developing, he could be the second or third setup man in a big league bullpen.

Grade: C

Tacoma Down Pour

First round: Picking sixth, the Down Pour went with SS Paul Lorin, already named the No. 1 shortstop prospect in Gleeman World. Lorin doesn't make great contact, but he has good power and a very good eye. A switch-hitter, he's much more potent from the right side, but he's certainly no slouch batting lefty. His range and glove may both fall a bit short of average for a shortstop, but he should be able to handle the position at least. His arm projects to be a huge asset, strong and accurate. He's durable enough to play almost every game, but his health is a bit of a question mark. Overall, he has the potential to be a regular in the All-Star game.

Grade: A

Other picks: Tacoma has failed to sign its second- and fourth-round picks so far, as the aggressive strategy that has paid off so handsomely in the past didn't work out as well this season. Still, 3B Greg White has the potential to reach the majors and maybe start against righties. He projects to have excellent power and a decent eye, but he doesn't make much contact. His defense should be fine at third but nothing special. Reliever Marc Gipson projects to have good control, two solid pitches and OK movement against both righties and lefties. He should at least develop into a pitcher who can eat innings in low-leverage situations, and he could be better than that. LF Ray Knott has very good power potential and a solid batting eye, but he doesn't make enough contact and his approach at the plate is terrible.

Grade: C

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Top Ten SS Prospects

*Reminder: Shortstops must project to at least 75 range and 80 glove. Additionally, glove + arm must be equal or greater than 160.

10. Ross Riley
Richmond Roustabouts
Bats: R
20 years old, High A
Drafted (HS) in the 2nd round (49th overall, Season 6)

Riley's appearance is on the list is more of an indictment of the dearth of talent at the position than anything else. That said, he's certainly not a bad prospect. Defensively, his range and arm strength both project as league-average, his glove a bit better, and his arm accuracy a bit worse. He whiffs surprisingly frequently for a guy with little more than gap power, but he makes up for it by peppering line drives and drawing his share of walks. He's very fast, but not a particularly good baserunner; he does, however, project to get better. All of this adds up to a nice, but uninspiring player; he's a starter for a lesser team, or an important bench player for a true contender. He does have an incredibly bad temper, though; look for him to set some sort of record for most ejections per game played.


9. Arlie Moriarty
Minnesota Fatboys
Bats: R
21 years old, Low A
Drafted (College SO) in the 1st round (31st overall, Season 7)

Moriarty's a tremendous athlete. He's a true blazer that's as fast as anyone else in organized baseball, he has above average range afield, and has an absolute cannon for an arm. His defensive fundamentals are strong, too; he's smooth with the glove, and has plenty of accuracy on his throws. He's a bit raw as a hitter. His contact abilities are acceptable, and he does have pretty good pop and plate discipline, but he can't figure out lefties at all. He's reasonably good against righties, and should be useful as a platoon SS against same-handed pitchers. Despite his speed, though, Moriarty is a poor baserunner and terrible bunter. I hate rating platoon players this highly, but the everyday players below Moriarty simply don't project as very good everyday players, and a quality platoon player against righties is more valuable than a mediocre starter. Interesting fact: Moriarty was born about an hour's drive away from the Metrodome. Thanks, Google Maps!


8. Wolf Lockhart
Pittsburgh Pug Dogs
Bats: R
20 years old, AA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (8th overall, Season 6)

Lockhart is an impressive prospect, but has two major flaws that could keep him from becoming a solid starter. First, his plate discipline is horrendous. Lockhart is a fairly good contact hitter, but still strikes out in more than 20% of his at-bats. He'll chase good breaking balls, high fastballs, splitters in the dirt, you name it. Also, Lockhart's arm is very erratic. While his throws have plenty of zip on them, he struggles with his release, and habitually drops his arm down (throwing side-arm), causing the ball to sail high and away from the target. The rest of the package is nice; Lockhart has good power, no platoon split and a mechanically sound swing. Defensively, he has great range and soft hands. He doesn't have any durability issues, and he's been praised as a hard worker on and off the field. But those two glaring flaws could pose a major problem; we'll see if he can succeed in spite of them.


7. Joseph Dong
Boston Red Sox
Bats: R
19 years old, Low A
Signed as an international free agent (Season 7, $7.5 million)

Dong is almost good enough defensively to play SS in the majors today. He accelerates and changes directions very quickly; he does have elite range, but is actually very slow; he'll actually lose in a footrace to most first basemen. However, his positioning, reaction time, and quickness are unparalleled. He fields ground balls effortlessly; he almost lulls you to sleep with his natural ability. You expect him to make every single play, whether it's routine or close to impossible. His arm conjures up images of Rafael Furcal or Shawn Dunston. His bat, however, is a big question mark; he struggles to make consistent contact, and too often tries to pull the outside pitch, resulting in routine grounders to short. His plate discipline isn't major league caliber, either. However, Dong has plus power, which should give him at least some offensive value. It's a strange combination (one-dimensional slow-footed slugger, elite defensive shortstop), but the end result should have plenty of value.


6. Glenallen Simontacchi
Tacoma Downpour
Bats: R
20 years old, AA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (5th overall, Season 6)

Simontacchi has good contact skills, and generates plenty of line drives with his swings (currently hitting .336 in AA as a 20 year old, no small feat). He also has solid pop. He does get a bit overeager at times, especially when he falls behind in the count, and better pitchers should be able to expand the strike zone against him. Simontacchi projects to be a solid defender; his arm accuracy is a bit shaky, but his arm is plenty strong enough for the position, and his glovework and range are fine. A good, down-to-earth kid that always shows up to practice and gives it his all on every play.


5. Erubiel Benitez
Monterrey Conquistadores
Bats: S
21 years old, AA
Signed as an international free agent (Season 5, $14.9 million)

Benitez is the Toyota Camry of shortstops; he's solid and reliable in every way, but not particularly good at anything. It makes for a nice package, though. There's not much to say about his bat; he projects to be around the ML average at every single attribute as a hitter. His defense is the same, too; his slightly inaccurate arm is made up for by his slightly above average glovework and range. The only thing remarkable about this kid is his work ethic; he's a tireless worker who's made the most of his abilities, and truly loves the game. While no single aspect of his game stands out, a league-average hitter who plays league-average defense at the game's most difficult position to fill stands out as a valuable player.


4. Ivan Hernandez
Albuquerque Isotopes
Bats: R
19 years old, Low A
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (26th overall, Season 7)

Hernandez's bat is solid; he has good power, reasonable contact skills, and doesn't chase too many bad pitches. He scorches right handers, but he can struggle at times against lefties. Where he really shines, though, is on the defensive end. Much like Joseph Dong, Hernandez has excellent range despite a lack of speed. He's also got great hands and a solid arm. A plus defender with a league-average bat is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but he does come with an extensive injury history, and a habit of letting his life off the field interfere with his game. He's worth dealing with the baggage, though.


3. Ozzie Hawkins
Minnesota Fatboys
Bats: R

23 years old, AAA

Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (7th overall, Season 3)


Hawkins comes from Transition Plus, a special-needs school. He's dyslexic, and has said that ever since he started playing baseball, it instantly became his catharsis, a haven away from the drudgery of everyday life. Not surprisingly, his coaches remark that Hawkins is one of the most intense, determined, and dedicated players they've ever seen. He's a skilled hitter with excellent contact ability, good power, and a solid stroke. He has a bit of a platoon split (better against LHP), but it's nothing major. He can be a bit impatient at the plate. Defensively, Hawkins is fairly rangy, and his glovework and arm are both adequate. There aren't any durability or injury concerns of note.


2. Jim Kydd
Cheyenne Tackleberries
Bats: R

18 years old, Rookie League

Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (12th overall, Season 8)


At 5'8'' and 163 lbs, Kydd is among the smallest players on a Top Prospect list. That said, he's certainly not just here because he's a good story. The guy's a legitimately talented prospect. He's armed with contact skills you'd expect from a diminutive player, but you wouldn't be able to tell from his swing; taking maximum effort hacks at the plate a la Dustin Pedroia, Kydd has caught many an unsuspecting outfielder (and pitcher) off-guard by crushing the ball over everyone's head. Even with such a swing, Kydd hits for a high average (due to freakish hand-eye coordination), and shows very good patience at the plate. He's not particularly fast, but he's an intelligent baserunner who knows when to take the extra base. As a shortstop, he's pretty rangy, sure-handed, and has a good arm, but he has a tendency to underthrow the ball a bit on routine plays, forcing the first baseman to get low and dig the ball out. Kydd hasn't missed a game since Little League, and is as tough as they come. A fiery competitor, he's been ejected from his fair share of games, but the anger comes from his drive to win rather than any sort of selfish immaturity. Coaches don't mind the outbursts; he's always been very coachable.


1. Paul Lorin
Tacoma Downpour
Bats: S
21 years old, High A
Drafted (College JR) in the 1st round (6th overall, Season 8)

A shortstop that projects to plus power and patience? I'd take three, please. In addition, Lorin has very good bat control, putting good wood on the ball far more often than not, and rarely striking out. As a switch hitter, he's solid left-handed, but turns it up to another gear when hitting right-handed. His hitting coach at BYU suggested that he try hitting right handed only, but he then suffered an 0-24 drought against righties before going back to switch-hitting for good. Lorin has a strong arm, solid accuracy, and sufficient range at his position, but he does have a bit of trouble backhanding the ball cleanly. Lorin can play every day, but he's had lower back problems that have plagued him over the last few years; it's certainly something to watch out for.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Top Ten 2B Prospects

*Reminder: Second basemen must project to at least 70 range AND 65 glove (both within 10 points of "average," as suggested by HBD's GM window). Arm strength/accuracy does not have a base. 2B are moved to CF rankings if glove + accuracy are greater to or equal 165. All left-handed players are filtered out.

10. Bob Flaherty
Minnesota Fatboys
Bats: R

21 years old, High A
Drafted (College FR) in the 1st round (27th overall, Season 6)

A very capable fielder, Flaherty has both the agility and glovework to play a good 2B at the major league level. He's a very competent hitter as well; he's a very sculpted 185, strong enough to hit his share of dingers despite a less-than-perfect swing. He has a fair batting eye. Flaherty hits better against lefties, and doesn't whiff excessively. Durability and health don't appear to be an issue in the future. Should end up being a solid everyday starter.


9. Christopher Roth
Los Angeles Hangars
Bats: R
24 years old, AAA

Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (41st overall, Season 2)


This is Roth's 7th season in the minor leagues, and his 3rd go-around in AAA. Despite this, Roth is a legitimate prospect, only stuck in the minors to delay his arbitration clock (to Roth's displeasure). He's a good contact hitter with above average pop, but tends to get a little pull-happy at times, which has kept his batting average down in the minors and may hamper him in the majors as well. Despite excellent speed, he's only a fair baserunner (his career stolen base percentage is a bit over 72%). His best attribute is his defense; despite only average range, Roth is very sure-handed, much like Placido Polanco. He also has a surprisingly good arm for a second baseman. He could conceivably play centerfield, although with his range, he might be a little stretched there.


8. David Terrero
St. Louis Greys
Bats: S

20 years old, High A

Drafted (HS) in the first round (18th overall, Season 6)


Nobody doubts that Terrero can hit in the major leagues. An excellent contact hitter with a fluid swing, he can put on quite a show in BP, peppering line drives just about everywhere. He has good power as well. His plate discipline is passable. Defensively, it's a bit unclear as to whether Terrero will stick at 2B. His glovework isn't particularly good, and he doesn't cover a lot of ground, either. He might stay there, or he might shift over to LF; if so, he'll become a plus defender there. His bat is good enough to play at either position. An excellent bunter, if you're into that sort of thing.


7. Tony Henriquez
Monterrey Conquistadores
Bats: R

23 years old, AA

Drafted (College SR) in the 1st round (8th overall, Season 7)

Henriquez, at 5'7'' and 162 lbs, is one of the smallest players in Gleeman World, but he's still a very talented ballplayer. He profiles well as a prototypical top-of-the-order hitter, with uncannily good bat control, an excellent line drive swing, and terrific plate discipline, along with surprisingly good pop. Henriquez hits well against righties, but is exceptionally good against lefties. He runs well, but shouldn't ever steal; his career SB% is an atrocious 56% (14 for 25). Defensively, he's a bit lacking in range, but makes up for it with soft hands and good fundamentals.


6. Ted Barker
San Juan Rincons
Bats: R
21 years old, AAA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (11th overall, Season 5)

Barker is listed as a shortstop, and has played there for the vast majority of his time in the minors, but no scout thinks he's even close to ML quality at the position. His FLD% in the minors at SS is a ghastly .933. His glovework and range are acceptable at SS, but his arm just doesn't cut it; Barker throws like a second baseman. He should be at least adequate at the keystone, should the Rincons decide to move him there. Barker, as a hitter, is a dead ringer for Alfonso Soriano. A slender 5'11'' and 174 pounds, Barker doesn't look like a power hitter, but has exceptionally quick wrists, which give him excellent power despite his smallish frame. He has a fairly sound swing, no real platoon split, and solid contact skills, although he occasionally will chase a good fastball at the letters. He does have a couple of major warts, which keep him from ranking higher than this. First, Barker has a history of being difficult to coach; when Barker was still in high school, scout Micah Dillon saw him leave a tied ballgame (in the 8th inning of a Kentucky Regional Semi-finals game) after his coach chewed him out for not running out a grounder to short, and his minor league coaches can attest to that type of behavior being the norm for Barker, rather than an aberration. Second, Barker has an injury-riddled past that rivals J.D. Drew and Rondell "Ron-DL" White.


5. Pete Kennedy
Philadelphia Phenomenauts
Bats: R
21 years old, AA

Drafted (HS) in the first round (9th overall, Season 5)


Kennedy has great power and patience, a combination that will always merit a spot among the best. His other skills as a hitter are solid, too; he doesn't strike out very often, and he hits very well against lefties while not giving up much against same-handed pitchers. The question marks concerning Kennedy are all on the defensive end. Kennedy isn't particularly fast for his position, and he doesn't move well laterally. Glove-wise, he's not a butcher, but not good, either. His arm is poor enough where some think it's actually too weak for 2B. He's just 21, and has room for improvement, but this rating all hinges on whether he can handle 2B at the ML level. If he can't, he'll have to move to LF, where his bat is merely good, and not great.


4. Taylor Turner
Monterrey Conquistadores
Bats: R

18 years old, Rookie League

Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (5th overall, Season 8)


At the plate, Turner resembles Placido Polanco (I know, I've already used the comp once), only with above average power. An outstanding contact hitter with a fundamentally sound swing, Turner should also be able to top 20 homers per year regularly in his prime, while regularly posting batting averages above .300. His plate discipline is fairly strong, and projects to be an asset. Defensively, Turner has solid glovework, but doesn't range particularly well towards ground balls hit to his right side. That's odd, since Turner is one of the fastest players in organized baseball. He also projects to be a plus bunter, which should pair up nicely with his speed. Despite this, Turner is an abysmally bad baserunner; he has absolutely no ability to read pickoff moves, and gets terrible jumps (or just gets picked off) when attempting to steal. Turner has no injury concerns, played every game in his high school career, and is always trying to better his game, day in and day out.


3. Dave Worrell
Washington D.C. Bureaucrats
Bats: S
18 years old, Low A

Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (13th overall, Season 8)

Worrell's swing is an absolute work of art. Born a natural right-hander, his father taught him how to switch hit when he was 6, and he's been doing it ever since, just as well from either side. He's on the short list of prospects most likely to win a batting title; not only does he have an outstanding line drive swing, he's a great contact hitter with excellent speed and solid discipline at the plate. Like Taylor Turner, though, Worrell has awful baserunning instincts. He has reasonably good power which belies his diminutive stature, kind of like Ray Durham in his prime. Defensively, Worrell gets it done, with good glovework that makes up for a slow first step. Worrell tends to "zone" his coaches out, and has never been accused of working too hard; it's something to keep an eye out on in the future.


2. Alex Bravo
Las Vegas Armijos
Bats: L

21 years old, AAA

Drafted (College SO) in the 1st round (4th overall, Season 7)

Bravo hits better than the majority of big league 1B right now, which explains why he was promoted to AAA after less than 160 games in the minors. He has monstrous power, but has Juan Pierre-like contact ability. His swing generates quite a few majestic fly-ball homers, but also produces its fair share of screaming line drive doubles in the gaps as well. He prefers hitting against same-handed pitching, but is still very dangerous against righties. Only his plate discipline falls short of excellence, but it's not really a flaw, either. His glove, however, is highly questionable. His range is a bit short, but his hands are just bad. He's still an outstanding bat in LF, but he'll be one of the best hitters at the position at 2B. It'll be an interesting dilemma as he's only one stop away from the bigs.


1. Jimmie Peters
San Antonio Sting
Bats: R

21 years old, High A

Drafted (College JR) in the 1st round (14th overall, Season 8)


Peters is an absolute beast of a hitter. He has plus-plus power, a picturesque swing, and is adept at making contact; he projects to be a .300+ hitter that can annually top 50 homers, something that clearly places him among the best prospects out there. His defense is solid; his range is average, and he looks comfortable fielding even the hardest hit grounders and choppers. Durability and health shouldn't be a major problem. There are some mild concerns with his makeup, as he is well aware of how talented he is, and doesn't always put forth his full effort (somewhat of a prima donna). What's unfair is that the Sting already have the best young 2B in baseball in Ronald Levrault. Levrault is 22, just one year older than Peters. Both are at least adequate 2B, but stretched defensively in CF. So the question is, what do the Sting do? Of course, such a problem is the envy of every other team in the league.

1B/DH Prospects: #10-1

*Reminder: There are no defensive requirements for 1B/DH.

10. Charles Shibata
San Juan Rincons
Bats: L
22 years old, AAA
Drafted (College FR) in the 1st round (37th overall, Season 5)

About as well-rounded of a player as you'll find, Shibata makes contact, hits for power, drives the ball against lefties and righties alike, and draws quite a few walks. He also plays above average defense. He's about as good a player as you can be without having any elite attributes. Durability is a mild concern, but he should still get in close to 500 plate appearances a season.


9. James Morrison
Minnesota Fatboys
Bats: S
22 years old, High A
Drafted (HS) in the 3rd round (112th overall, Season 3)
Morrison's an all-or-nothing guy, like Tony Jordan, but has even more power, although slightly less (but still excellent) plate discipline. He's got a good approach and takes good swings against righties, certainly better than most of the other whiff-happy sluggers out there, and should be able to keep his batting average respectable despite his poor contact skills. He's not quite as good against left-handed pitchers. His glove will play at 1B. He does have a history of relative fragility, so that could be a concern going forward.


8. Dustan Allen
Richmond Roustabouts
Bats: L
22 years old, High A
Drafted (College JR) in the 1st round (37th overall, Season 7)

Allen profiles similarly to many of the hitters lower on this list: good contact, very good power, somewhat of a free swinger. However, he's ranked this highly because of his ability to kill right handed pitching; scouts think he's capable of slugging upwards of .550 in his prime against northpaws. He's not a pushover against lefties, although he does have a habit of "fishing" for sliders low and away.. His defense is reasonable at 1B. Allen gets great marks for his makeup; coaches praise him for his hustle, work ethic, and dedication to the game.


7. Mike Jarvis
Chicago Jayhawks
Bats: S
21 years old, High A
Drafted (College SO) in the 1st round (27th overall, Season 7)

In 174 games, Jarvis has walked 94 times, and struck out just 86. He's very patient, gets deep into counts, and can hit comfortably with 2 strikes on him. He doesn't have great power, especially for a first baseman. He's a switch hitter, although his swings looks more natural when he bats left-handed. He could use a bit of practice scooping out low throws, as they tend to give him a bit of trouble. One of Jarvis' best traits is his Ripken-like desire to play in every game; he genuinely hates being benched, even for just a day.


6. Quinton Snyder
San Antonio Sting
Bats: L
22 years old, AA
Drafted (College SO) in the 1st round (23rd overall, Season 6)

Snyder is arguably the best hitter in the minors. Period. While his contact skills are merely okay, he has monstrous power, an excellent batting eye, and the ability to drive the ball at will against all pitchers. He ranks this low for two reasons. First, he doesn't really have a defensive position. His glovework wouldn't be horrid at 1B, but his footwork is very raw. He's a soft, pudgy 201 lbs; he's slow-footed and lacks any lateral agility, meaning that he'll likely never have the requisite range for any defensive position. His arm is poor for a catcher, and his pitch calling is questionable, although better than the majority of DH's. So while he COULD play another position outside of DH, he won't be very good. Secondly, Snyder does have an extensive injury history, and wears down fairly easily, meaning that he'll have to be monitored very carefully to get the most out of him. Still, the bat is so special that he's worth the extra effort.


5. Benito Alvarez
Richmond Roustabouts
Bats: R
21 years old, AA
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (19th overall, Season 5)

Alvarez projects to legitimate 40 homer power, makes consistent contact, shows patience at the plate, and shows the ability to hit for average as well. That he ranks this low says a lot about the players ranked ahead of him. Alvarez shows decent glovework, but is a bit stiff around the bag, lacking the quickness exhibited by most elite defensive 1B. He's a bit difficult to motivate, has a thicker frame that puts on weight easily, and has been accused of taking offseason conditioning too lightly, things that could pose an issue later in his career.


4. Zeus Hollins
Buffalo Europeans
Bats: R
19 years old, Low A
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (22nd overall, Season 7)

Hollins is similar to Alvarez, but equal or better at every aspect of the game. He's a very good contact hitter, has prodigious power, kills lefties while doing good damage against righties, and draws plenty of walks. He's even the fastest 1B on this list, which also shows in his defense; he's rangy, and can pick it with the best at the position. He's the best candidate on this list to be moved to LF, although his arm might not be good enough for the transition, and he doesn't get very good jumps on fly balls, often taking a tentative step back on contact before beginning pursuit. He's able to play just about every day, but a bit of an injury concern, stemming from an ACL tear he suffered in high school while playing basketball recreationally.


3. Hank Haynes
Florida Cottonmouths
Bats: R
18 years old, Rookie League
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (21st overall, Season 8)

Haynes is an exceptionally gifted hitter. Like Chicago's Mike Jarvis, Haynes has walked more than he's struck out in his minor league career, something that scouts feel could potentially carry on to the majors. Haynes' swing is more fundamentally sound than Jarvis, resulting in more line drives and deep flies. His power projects to be just short of elite. Haynes prefers hitting righties, but has no trouble with left-handers. His defense at 1B is superb, although he's somewhat noodle-armed (blew out his shoulder pitching in HS), so a move to LF is probably out of the question. He can be a bit of a hothead, although management doesn't seem to mind too much, as long as it doesn't become a distraction.


2. Walt Lambert
Las Vegas Armijos
Bats: L
19 years old, Low A
Drafted (College FR) in the 1st round (3rd overall, Season 8)

Lambert has outstanding power, and uses that power equally well against both lefties and righties. He's also a very good contact hitter that rarely swings at pitches out of the strike zone. He draws raves for his hands at 1B; he's capable of scooping out throw after throw at first, and rarely makes mistakes. He's dependable, too; you can pencil him into the lineup from opening day until the end of September (or October, if you're lucky/good).


1. Cliff Hawkins
Tacoma Downpour
Bats: L
19 years old, High A
Drafted (HS) in the 1st round (1st overall, Season 7)

The top pick of Season 7's draft, and for good reason. Hawkins rarely swings and misses, projects to have plenty of power (although not quite as much as the best on this list), and has very good plate discipline. What sets him apart is his preternatural ability to absolutely obliterate right-handed pitching. Hawkins has topped a 1.100 OPS against righties in both Seasons 7 and 8 in the minors, admittedly a small sample size, but scouts claim that he's just getting started. Defensively, Hawkins is merely average. There aren't any significant durability or health concerns.