With the new rule in place that considers any owner with more than 2 seasons of experience a "vet" with no veto protection from other owners, the best thing to do for newer owners is to help educate them. I recommend following these unofficial rules for the first 1-5 seasons:
1. Don't make any trades in seasons 1-2
a) only exception is if there is at least one experienced, unbiased owner that reviews it for you beforehand
2. Don't sign a FA to a contract >$5M/year for more than 3 years without asking an experienced, unbiased owner about it first
3. Don't release any player unless you have maxed out roster throughout your minor leagues. If you're at that point, release a guy with at 3+ years of experience with the lowest OVR rating (which is only useful until you get a handle on the true meaningful ratings)
4. If your fielding instructor is not willing to return, prepare to spend $3-$5M on a FI and try to get at least a 70 glove rating. FI's can be very expensive and they are crucial to defensive development.
Mistakes I've made:
First of all, in none of these cases did a more experienced owner blatantly rip me off. This is not intended to demonstrate owners acting against the league's best interests - none of these trades was "vetoable" nor should they have been. But in every case I made a decision that was based upon my non-complete knowledge of player values and the value of money...and all of these decisions were made when I had 6 or less seasons of experience with HBD. I guess I'm a slow learner?
Trade #1 (S3, my first full season of control):
I trade Hal Owen, a player with a 28 overall rating, for Russ Perkins, s SP making $8M in his last contract year. Perkins is immediately my best pitcher (my team was awful) and I was desperate for some SP. And a 28 overall player is awful, right???
Analysis: Perkins ended up pitching for me for just one season, going 14-13 in 211.2 IP with a 1.43 WHIP and 4.97 ERA. This isn't awful, but it's certainly not worth $8M. What I should have realized is that he was essentially a salary dump by the other team - they didn't want to get stuck paying $8M for him even just for one more season, so I should have asked for a minimum of $4M of salary coverage if I was going to take him on my team (and even if I was giving up nothing in return). In the other team's defense, he was coming off of a 1.28 WHIP/3.24 ERA season...so he appeared to be a much better pitcher than what his ratings would suggest.
So Perkins +$4M for a random minor leaguer would have been ok. But I didn't give up a random minor leaguer...I gave up an awesome pinch hitter for an NL team. Owen's overall rating is artificially low because his durability was 11. But his batting ratings were decent and he was still improving...and an 83 batting eye can be hard to find. In his ML career (all since the trade) he has hit .291/.384/.422 in 1411 AB's...and what tops it all off is that a player with this low of an overall rating is always willing to play for the bare minimum salary. In that sense, he's an even more valuable commodity than his good stats would suggest alone.
Conclusion: I traded for a pitcher who I paid $8M to throw 212 replacement-level innings in return for a career .806 OPS player who has made $3M total in 9 major league seasons.
Other comments:
This post already is longer than I anticipated and I need to install a car seat and put together a crib this afternoon, so I think I'll leave this trade as the lone example. But here a few "Cliff's Notes" regarding other uninformed mistakes I've made:
1. #1 starters are the most valuable commodity, followed closely (or some would say equal to) by CF and SS with a solid glove who can hit for a .850+ OPS. If you're trading a future #1 starter for a SS who you think fits the bill, make sure the SS is at least 82+ in all defensive categories and that his batting splits are at least >65 (these are generic, personal guidelines). I made this mistake with the Mesa-Millwood trade in season 7 (Edgar Mesa and Neil Millwood).
2. Like mentioned above, solid defensive players who can hit are valuable. I pulled the trigger on Haywood Enders way too early and didn't get a decent return (Roberto Cortez). Cortez is available for trade, by the way! He'd be a great #5 starter or long reliever for a non-contending team. But even when I traded for him he was clearly projecting to be no better than a #4 starter and I gave up a guy who could be plugged in at 2B or 3B for a long career and be counted on to produce decent stats (especially at 2B). Some guys have bad seasons...it was unfortunate that Enders' career with me started that way.
Again, this post is not intended to "call out" the owners on the other sides of the trades...it's to illustrate the small errors in judgment that can result in the degradation of one's overall franchise value. I'll quote Ernest Hemingway from The Sun Also Rises: when asked how he went bankrupt, a man replies "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." The same could be said for your beloved HBD franchise.
Caveat Emptor.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
GW2 prediction
Here's my prediction for the players involved in the trade that sickchangeup hates.
In Season 12, Ismael Coronado will post at least a .685 OPS and will have more plus plays on defense than minus plays.
At least once by the end of Season 16, Sammy Matos and Everth Quintero will have combined for at least 90 innings pitched and an ERA under 4.00.
In Season 12, Ismael Coronado will post at least a .685 OPS and will have more plus plays on defense than minus plays.
At least once by the end of Season 16, Sammy Matos and Everth Quintero will have combined for at least 90 innings pitched and an ERA under 4.00.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
GW1 Hall of Fame voting
Season 14
Red Wainhouse - 29 votes
Fritz Rushford - 28 votes
Vic Alfonzo - 24 votes
Billy Ray Prince - 19 votes
Season 15
Haywood Towers - 26 votes
Geoffery Bates - 22 votes
Brian Murata - 20 votes
Season 16
Hector Santos - 22 votes
Edwin Hogan - 21 votes
Toby Joseph - 19 votes
Season 17
Bryan Beckett - 30 votes
Trey Fonville - 22 votes
Ruben Crespo - 18 votes
Season 18
Don Masato - 26 votes
Season 19
Bernard Rhodes - 25 votes
Gary Long - 22 votes
Season 20
Matt Governale - 23 votes
Chipper Velandia - 22 votes
Also getting votes: Nash McCartin 11, Ronald Garcia 9, Bill Cameron 7, Max Leary 5, Dusty Zoltan 4, Thumper Neagle 4, Nigel Whang 3, Lou Gil 3, Brad Jefferson 3, Doug Rueter 2, Tim Stark 2, Darron Jenkins 2, R.J. Granados 2, Darwin Stocker 2, J.D. Jackson 1, Hector Hernandez 1, Derek Page 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Ralph Jackson 1, Richard Maxwell 1, Dennis James 1
Season 21
Nash McCartin - 24 votes
Ronald Garcia - 23 votes
Bill Cameron - 17 votes
Also getting votes: Max Leary 9, Darron Jenkins 7, Darron Kirkland 7, Doug Rueter 7, Thumper Neagle 5, Lou Gil 4, Dusty Zoltan 3, Nigel Whang 2, Nate McMillan 1, R.J. Granados 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Brad Jefferson 1, Dennis James 1, Ted Simpson 1, Charlie Stevens 1, Derek Page 1, John Carroll 1, Ricardo Rincon 1.
Red Wainhouse - 29 votes
Fritz Rushford - 28 votes
Vic Alfonzo - 24 votes
Billy Ray Prince - 19 votes
Season 15
Haywood Towers - 26 votes
Geoffery Bates - 22 votes
Brian Murata - 20 votes
Season 16
Hector Santos - 22 votes
Edwin Hogan - 21 votes
Toby Joseph - 19 votes
Season 17
Bryan Beckett - 30 votes
Trey Fonville - 22 votes
Ruben Crespo - 18 votes
Season 18
Don Masato - 26 votes
Season 19
Bernard Rhodes - 25 votes
Gary Long - 22 votes
Season 20
Matt Governale - 23 votes
Chipper Velandia - 22 votes
Also getting votes: Nash McCartin 11, Ronald Garcia 9, Bill Cameron 7, Max Leary 5, Dusty Zoltan 4, Thumper Neagle 4, Nigel Whang 3, Lou Gil 3, Brad Jefferson 3, Doug Rueter 2, Tim Stark 2, Darron Jenkins 2, R.J. Granados 2, Darwin Stocker 2, J.D. Jackson 1, Hector Hernandez 1, Derek Page 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Ralph Jackson 1, Richard Maxwell 1, Dennis James 1
Season 21
Nash McCartin - 24 votes
Ronald Garcia - 23 votes
Bill Cameron - 17 votes
Also getting votes: Max Leary 9, Darron Jenkins 7, Darron Kirkland 7, Doug Rueter 7, Thumper Neagle 5, Lou Gil 4, Dusty Zoltan 3, Nigel Whang 2, Nate McMillan 1, R.J. Granados 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Brad Jefferson 1, Dennis James 1, Ted Simpson 1, Charlie Stevens 1, Derek Page 1, John Carroll 1, Ricardo Rincon 1.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Hall Of Fame Candidates: Season 19
In an effort to help everyone evaluate the Hall of Fame candidates for Season 19, here are their career numbers simplified for easy comparisons (along with my analysis). I've included all pitchers with 1,000 innings and all hitters with 6,500 plate appearances.
Dennis James' bat also compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates, yet he played third base and shortstop. Having only 6,900 plate appearances hurts his case, but his .850 OPS was significantly more valuable than all those .850-.900 OPS from 1B/LF/RF. Jose Morales has gotten substantial support in the past despite only 6,700 plate appearances and he's a solid enough candidate, but I'm not sure why anyone would rank him above Nigel Whang. Morales had an .800 OPS and 600 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a left fielder, while Whang had an .800 OPS and 500 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a center fielder. Their offensive contributions are nearly identical and once you factor in defense and positional adjustments Whang should clearly be ahead.
My ballot: Bernard Rhodes, Gary Long, Max Leary, Darrin Murphy.
PITCHER IP ERAMy take: Gary Long should be a no-brainer pick as one of the truly elite pitchers in Gleeman World history, but Max Leary is under-appreciated. Leary has the same ERA as Long in about 13 percent fewer innings and is clearly ahead of the other starter candidates. Tim Stark and J.D. Jackson are among the top relievers in Gleeman World history, but I'm not very keen on voting for relievers when they have only half as many innings as various starter candidates.
Gary Long 3000 3.50
Benny Molina 2700 4.00
Max Leary 2600 3.50
Jayson Ellis 2100 4.00
Miguel Torres 1800 4.00
Billy Stovall 1600 3.50
Tim Stark 1250 3.25
J.D. Jackson 1050 3.25
HITTER PA OPS POSMy take: As one of three Gleeman World players with 3,000 hits Bernard Rhodes is a no-brainer even more so than Long on the pitching side. After that it gets a bit muddled, as the ballot is filled with first basemen, designated hitters, and corner outfielders with OPS in the .850-.900 range. I tend to think middle infielders and center fielders are too often overlooked, so I'd highlight Darrin Murphy as being very underrated with the second-most plate appearances of any candidate and a bat that compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates while playing mostly second base (albeit not particularly well).
Bernard Rhodes 10300 .925 1B/LF
Darrin Murphy 8400 .850 2B/1B
Bud Jones 8300 .850 LF/RF
Luis Cervantes 7700 .875 1B/DH
Ralph Jackson 7700 .875 DH/1B
Thumper Neagle 7600 .900 DH/C
Nate McMillan 7400 .850 DH/1B
Brooks Zaun 7300 .825 RF/3B
Bono Hughes 7300 .775 3B/RF
R.J. Granados 7000 .875 2B/LF
Darwin Stocker 7000 .850 RF/LF
Ted Simpson 6900 .900 1B/DH
Dennis James 6900 .850 SS/3B
Jose Morales 6700 .825 LF/RF
Nigel Whang 6700 .800 CF/LF
Tony Cortes 6600 .825 SS/3B
Dennis James' bat also compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates, yet he played third base and shortstop. Having only 6,900 plate appearances hurts his case, but his .850 OPS was significantly more valuable than all those .850-.900 OPS from 1B/LF/RF. Jose Morales has gotten substantial support in the past despite only 6,700 plate appearances and he's a solid enough candidate, but I'm not sure why anyone would rank him above Nigel Whang. Morales had an .800 OPS and 600 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a left fielder, while Whang had an .800 OPS and 500 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a center fielder. Their offensive contributions are nearly identical and once you factor in defense and positional adjustments Whang should clearly be ahead.
My ballot: Bernard Rhodes, Gary Long, Max Leary, Darrin Murphy.
Monday, May 9, 2011
NL Season 18 Preview Followup
I was curious as to how successful I was on my preseason predictions. So here goes:
NL North:
Milwaukee Twindyans
Prediction: 98-64, NL North Champions
Actual: 109-53, NL North Champions
Difference: +11
Columbus Santa Marias
Prediction: 64-98, 3rd place
Actual: 56-106, 4th place
Difference: -8
Cleveland Redbirds
Prediction: 91-71, WC
Actual: 95-67, WC
Difference: +4
Hartford Dark Blues
Prediction: 53-109, 4th place
Actual: 63-99, 3rd place
Difference: +10
NL East:
Chicago Jayhawks
Prediction: 94-68, NL East Champions
Actual: 77-85, 3rd place
Difference: -17 (oops)
New York Yankees
Prediction: 90-72, maybe WC
Actual: 97-65, NL East Champs
Difference: +7
Scranton Nard Doggs
Prediction: 71-91, 3rd place
Actual: 80-82, 2nd place
Difference: +9
Washington Bureaucrats
Prediction: 60-102, 4th place
Actual: 67-95, 4th place
Difference: +7
NL South:
Oklahoma City Twins
Prediction: 85-77, NL South Champs
Actual: 80-82, 3rd place
Difference: -5
Iowa City Comics
Prediction: 78-84, 4th place
Actual: 74-88, 4th place
Difference: -4
St. Louis Greys
Prediction: 83-79, 2nd place
Actual: 87-75, NL South Champs
Difference: +4
Nashville Havoc
Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place
Actual: 84-78, 2nd place
Difference: +3
Average Difference Between Prediction and Actual: 7.4 wins
Worst Prediction: -17 (Chicago Jayhawks)
Best Prediction: +3 (Nashville Havoc)
NL North:
Milwaukee Twindyans
Prediction: 98-64, NL North Champions
Actual: 109-53, NL North Champions
Difference: +11
Columbus Santa Marias
Prediction: 64-98, 3rd place
Actual: 56-106, 4th place
Difference: -8
Cleveland Redbirds
Prediction: 91-71, WC
Actual: 95-67, WC
Difference: +4
Hartford Dark Blues
Prediction: 53-109, 4th place
Actual: 63-99, 3rd place
Difference: +10
NL East:
Chicago Jayhawks
Prediction: 94-68, NL East Champions
Actual: 77-85, 3rd place
Difference: -17 (oops)
New York Yankees
Prediction: 90-72, maybe WC
Actual: 97-65, NL East Champs
Difference: +7
Scranton Nard Doggs
Prediction: 71-91, 3rd place
Actual: 80-82, 2nd place
Difference: +9
Washington Bureaucrats
Prediction: 60-102, 4th place
Actual: 67-95, 4th place
Difference: +7
NL South:
Oklahoma City Twins
Prediction: 85-77, NL South Champs
Actual: 80-82, 3rd place
Difference: -5
Iowa City Comics
Prediction: 78-84, 4th place
Actual: 74-88, 4th place
Difference: -4
St. Louis Greys
Prediction: 83-79, 2nd place
Actual: 87-75, NL South Champs
Difference: +4
Nashville Havoc
Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place
Actual: 84-78, 2nd place
Difference: +3
Average Difference Between Prediction and Actual: 7.4 wins
Worst Prediction: -17 (Chicago Jayhawks)
Best Prediction: +3 (Nashville Havoc)
Sunday, April 10, 2011
S9 AL West Preview
Los Angeles Anteaters of Irvine
Season 8 Record: 94-68, AL West Champ
Key Additions: Harry Cora, Wesley Cook
Key Losses: Glenn Simmons, Raul Trevino
The four-time reigning AL West champs and now 2 years removed from the franchise’s first World Series appearance, the Anteaters are in a position of having reached their likely peak and now hope to contend for as many years as possible with much of the same roster from the last few seasons. While they have remained steady (92, 93, and 94 wins in S6-S8), the rest of the division is showing signs of strength and it will likely be difficult to improve on their win total.
The strength of this team remains its pitching, with Pablo Jose coming back from a horrific injury, defending Cy Young Darwin Martin, and former Cy Young winner Adam Ducey. With Felipe Machado rounding out the normal 4-man rotation, this is still one of the best staffs in baseball. The bullpen welcomes the aforementioned Cook along with team veteran and fellow stamina-starved stud Gerald Ward. Unfortunately, the defense is average at best, especially with iron gloved Edgar Mesa at SS. All things considered, last year’s team 3.55 ERA/1.29 WHIP should be within reach.
The lineup returns with minor changes, the most notable with new addition and likely leadoff man Harry Cora replacing the departed Glenn Simmons in LF. This team led the Majors in HR’s last year (277 to the Bloggers’ 263), but its issue remains getting on base, with the team posting a.257/.318/.439 line last season. Signing Barry Peterson to a 4-year $42.7M contract helped them solidify 3B for the future, and they still have lineup anchors Moises Martin and Philip Wolf. Patrick Osbourne delivered a phenomenal performance last season in his platoon role against LHP, but it will be hard to repeat. This season LA is relying on their investment in Cora (2 yrs $8.2M) to improve their OBP, but it will likely be more of the same…relying on the long ball to give their pitching enough to work with.
Outlook: They could make another run at the World Series and are a likely playoff team, but the competition will be thick in the AL this season. Worst case is 85 wins and just missing the wild card.
Predicted division finish: 1st
Cheyenne Morning Star
Season 8 record: 82-80, 4th in AL West
Key additions: Pascual Roque, Carlos Valentin, Miguel Alcantara
Key losses: Don Murray, Cliff Carter, Edgar Bautista, Al Baerga
Cheyenne hit a lull last year, seeing their win total fall from 86 and just barely missing the playoffs in S7 to 82 in S8. They’ve made up huge ground throughout the last few years as they were a 61-win team as recently as Season 6. The last couple of offseasons have featured some heavy free agent investments that coincide with the arrival of some of the team’s promising young stars. The last two offseasons they committed an astounding $242.5M over 17 seasons to 8 different players (an average of $14.3M/season per player), with another $55M/3 yrs contract that began in S7. So they are playing with $300M of FA’s and some pretty decent youth…does the math finally add up to a playoff appearance?
The staff is led by inning-eaters Steve Barrett and Brady Murray, the aging but effective Andrew Burks, and Alex Donahue. A 2-year $36M deal brought S8 Fireman of the Year Roque into the bullpen to join Del Cubillan to round out a squad that should improve on the 4.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP from last year. With the experienced rotation, this team could fare well in what would be the franchise’s first playoff series.
Slugger Albert Ortega anchors the lineup, and Cheyenne is hoping for a bounce back season from Steve Coleman and still boast RHP platoon slugger Walt Kelly. They are trying to replace Baerga and Bautista’s production with Valentin and Alcantra, and it’s probably a push. Cliff Carter and his .888 OPS will be missed the most, and Ed Howell has seen his best years. They won’t set any scoring records, but if Coleman and Valentin rediscover themselves they could overcome the .261/.326/.431 team batting stats from last season. Or perhaps the biggest question is how soon we’ll see future stud Kelly Johnson or fellow prospect Miguel Padilla. Is their time now?
Outlook: This is very likely the season they break through for their first playoff berth, and the promotion of Johnson could help ensure that. Cheyenne has certainly opened their wallet to try to buy success, so anything short of the playoffs would be a major disappointment.
Predicted division finish: 2nd (Wild Card)
Colorado Springs Eternal
Season 8 record: 85-77, 2nd in AL West
Key additions: Bob Gilmore, Lee Cone
Key losses: Yamid Felix, Bill Castillo, Bob Walbeck
You’ve got to tip your cap to what jnewfry has accomplished in the first 8 seasons – his team has never been worse than .500. The continued competitiveness has helped keep this division so strong through the years, but has the success helped or hurt this team? 3 of the last 4 years Colorado Springs has won between 81 and 85 games, which hasn’t gotten them in the playoffs and hasn’t quite allowed them to rebuild either. This team is getting older (17 players are older than 30) so it will be decision time very soon…do they make another run at the playoffs or hit the rebuild button?
The rotation is anchored by veterans Cole Perkins, Josh King, Antone Hill, and Alex DeSoto. None of them are shutdown starters, but they are also pretty consistent. Delino Holt is one of the better relievers in the league, but there is not a lot of depth here. The team’s 4.04 ERA/1.32 WHIP from last year will likely be delivered again as there hasn’t been a lot of movement in the staff overall.
The loss of Bob Walbeck looms large…he’ll be difficult to replace in CF. The addition of Lee Cone (5 yrs, $40.6) is the biggest change, and if he can return to his career .817 OPS rather than the .697 of last year, he could help improve on the team’s overall .261/.326/.417 line. All-Star SS Eric Montgomery also returns, and Billy Karnuth is a dependable DH. However, I’m not buying Earl Mulholland ever doing anything better than the .733 OPS he posted last season, and at 1B and 3 yrs/$13.2M he’s probably been overextended with this latest contract. And Ricardo Rincon’s last season is not likely to be repeated again, either. All things considered, this offense looks to be in for a year of decline.
Outlook: Colorado Springs will be competitive, but unless they get career years out of some of their key players they may struggle to stay in the playoff race the entire season. It still seems like extending the streak of winning seasons to 9 is a good possibility, but the aging roster and lack of prime prospects means these days may be numbered.
Predicted division finish: 3rd
Albuquerque From "Life Goes On"
Season 8 record: 84-78, 3rd in AL West
Key additions:None
Key losses: Luis Cruz, Paul Jackson, William Tamura, Junior Spencer
It appears that Albuquerque is heading into a transition, which is clearly evident by the lack of any key signings in the offseason while letting a few major contributors from last year’s team walk in free agency. Star slugger Paul Bang is on the Trade Block along with Peaches Washington and SP Peter Larson. How long will each of them remain with the team? It always seems that Robot gets the most out of his players, as this team was counted out in each of the last few years but remained in contention the whole way through, so while this team review may come off as negative, you never know what this owner can pull off.
The starting pitching is definitely the worst of the AL West. The team put up a cumulative 4.37 ERA/1.36 WHIP last season, but the fact that it wasn’t worse is attributable almost entirely to the bullpen. With Junior Spencer and Luis Cruz gone from the rotation, the only bright spots the aforementioned tradeable Larson, and younger pitchers Hamlet Donovan and Alberto Ontiveros. All-Star closer Travis Lewis returns, but with guys like Cesar Piedra on the roster, will he even be necessary?
As for the lineup, if Bang and Washington get traded, this team will struggle to score runs, and it will signal the official countdown starting to the day stud prospect Lou Lindsey arrives in the majors. The returning J.T. Timlin helped this squad hit a combined .267/.324/.413 – they can hit for average, but there’s not a lot of pop. Being conservative in the FA market has meant that while there isn’t a lot of talent here, it’s relatively young and inexpensive, which will allow for some flexibility in the coming years. And if the aforementioned trades occur, this team could find itself with a sub $40M roster quickly.
Outlook: Count these guys out for contention this season – I think Robot has already squeezed as much as he could out of these guys. But they are positioned well for a rebuild with some valuable veterans and plenty of cap room. We probably won’t see the entire AL West at or above .500 this year, but this team won’t embarrass the division either.
Predicted division finish: 4th
Season 8 Record: 94-68, AL West Champ
Key Additions: Harry Cora, Wesley Cook
Key Losses: Glenn Simmons, Raul Trevino
The four-time reigning AL West champs and now 2 years removed from the franchise’s first World Series appearance, the Anteaters are in a position of having reached their likely peak and now hope to contend for as many years as possible with much of the same roster from the last few seasons. While they have remained steady (92, 93, and 94 wins in S6-S8), the rest of the division is showing signs of strength and it will likely be difficult to improve on their win total.
The strength of this team remains its pitching, with Pablo Jose coming back from a horrific injury, defending Cy Young Darwin Martin, and former Cy Young winner Adam Ducey. With Felipe Machado rounding out the normal 4-man rotation, this is still one of the best staffs in baseball. The bullpen welcomes the aforementioned Cook along with team veteran and fellow stamina-starved stud Gerald Ward. Unfortunately, the defense is average at best, especially with iron gloved Edgar Mesa at SS. All things considered, last year’s team 3.55 ERA/1.29 WHIP should be within reach.
The lineup returns with minor changes, the most notable with new addition and likely leadoff man Harry Cora replacing the departed Glenn Simmons in LF. This team led the Majors in HR’s last year (277 to the Bloggers’ 263), but its issue remains getting on base, with the team posting a.257/.318/.439 line last season. Signing Barry Peterson to a 4-year $42.7M contract helped them solidify 3B for the future, and they still have lineup anchors Moises Martin and Philip Wolf. Patrick Osbourne delivered a phenomenal performance last season in his platoon role against LHP, but it will be hard to repeat. This season LA is relying on their investment in Cora (2 yrs $8.2M) to improve their OBP, but it will likely be more of the same…relying on the long ball to give their pitching enough to work with.
Outlook: They could make another run at the World Series and are a likely playoff team, but the competition will be thick in the AL this season. Worst case is 85 wins and just missing the wild card.
Predicted division finish: 1st
Cheyenne Morning Star
Season 8 record: 82-80, 4th in AL West
Key additions: Pascual Roque, Carlos Valentin, Miguel Alcantara
Key losses: Don Murray, Cliff Carter, Edgar Bautista, Al Baerga
Cheyenne hit a lull last year, seeing their win total fall from 86 and just barely missing the playoffs in S7 to 82 in S8. They’ve made up huge ground throughout the last few years as they were a 61-win team as recently as Season 6. The last couple of offseasons have featured some heavy free agent investments that coincide with the arrival of some of the team’s promising young stars. The last two offseasons they committed an astounding $242.5M over 17 seasons to 8 different players (an average of $14.3M/season per player), with another $55M/3 yrs contract that began in S7. So they are playing with $300M of FA’s and some pretty decent youth…does the math finally add up to a playoff appearance?
The staff is led by inning-eaters Steve Barrett and Brady Murray, the aging but effective Andrew Burks, and Alex Donahue. A 2-year $36M deal brought S8 Fireman of the Year Roque into the bullpen to join Del Cubillan to round out a squad that should improve on the 4.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP from last year. With the experienced rotation, this team could fare well in what would be the franchise’s first playoff series.
Slugger Albert Ortega anchors the lineup, and Cheyenne is hoping for a bounce back season from Steve Coleman and still boast RHP platoon slugger Walt Kelly. They are trying to replace Baerga and Bautista’s production with Valentin and Alcantra, and it’s probably a push. Cliff Carter and his .888 OPS will be missed the most, and Ed Howell has seen his best years. They won’t set any scoring records, but if Coleman and Valentin rediscover themselves they could overcome the .261/.326/.431 team batting stats from last season. Or perhaps the biggest question is how soon we’ll see future stud Kelly Johnson or fellow prospect Miguel Padilla. Is their time now?
Outlook: This is very likely the season they break through for their first playoff berth, and the promotion of Johnson could help ensure that. Cheyenne has certainly opened their wallet to try to buy success, so anything short of the playoffs would be a major disappointment.
Predicted division finish: 2nd (Wild Card)
Colorado Springs Eternal
Season 8 record: 85-77, 2nd in AL West
Key additions: Bob Gilmore, Lee Cone
Key losses: Yamid Felix, Bill Castillo, Bob Walbeck
You’ve got to tip your cap to what jnewfry has accomplished in the first 8 seasons – his team has never been worse than .500. The continued competitiveness has helped keep this division so strong through the years, but has the success helped or hurt this team? 3 of the last 4 years Colorado Springs has won between 81 and 85 games, which hasn’t gotten them in the playoffs and hasn’t quite allowed them to rebuild either. This team is getting older (17 players are older than 30) so it will be decision time very soon…do they make another run at the playoffs or hit the rebuild button?
The rotation is anchored by veterans Cole Perkins, Josh King, Antone Hill, and Alex DeSoto. None of them are shutdown starters, but they are also pretty consistent. Delino Holt is one of the better relievers in the league, but there is not a lot of depth here. The team’s 4.04 ERA/1.32 WHIP from last year will likely be delivered again as there hasn’t been a lot of movement in the staff overall.
The loss of Bob Walbeck looms large…he’ll be difficult to replace in CF. The addition of Lee Cone (5 yrs, $40.6) is the biggest change, and if he can return to his career .817 OPS rather than the .697 of last year, he could help improve on the team’s overall .261/.326/.417 line. All-Star SS Eric Montgomery also returns, and Billy Karnuth is a dependable DH. However, I’m not buying Earl Mulholland ever doing anything better than the .733 OPS he posted last season, and at 1B and 3 yrs/$13.2M he’s probably been overextended with this latest contract. And Ricardo Rincon’s last season is not likely to be repeated again, either. All things considered, this offense looks to be in for a year of decline.
Outlook: Colorado Springs will be competitive, but unless they get career years out of some of their key players they may struggle to stay in the playoff race the entire season. It still seems like extending the streak of winning seasons to 9 is a good possibility, but the aging roster and lack of prime prospects means these days may be numbered.
Predicted division finish: 3rd
Albuquerque From "Life Goes On"
Season 8 record: 84-78, 3rd in AL West
Key additions:None
Key losses: Luis Cruz, Paul Jackson, William Tamura, Junior Spencer
It appears that Albuquerque is heading into a transition, which is clearly evident by the lack of any key signings in the offseason while letting a few major contributors from last year’s team walk in free agency. Star slugger Paul Bang is on the Trade Block along with Peaches Washington and SP Peter Larson. How long will each of them remain with the team? It always seems that Robot gets the most out of his players, as this team was counted out in each of the last few years but remained in contention the whole way through, so while this team review may come off as negative, you never know what this owner can pull off.
The starting pitching is definitely the worst of the AL West. The team put up a cumulative 4.37 ERA/1.36 WHIP last season, but the fact that it wasn’t worse is attributable almost entirely to the bullpen. With Junior Spencer and Luis Cruz gone from the rotation, the only bright spots the aforementioned tradeable Larson, and younger pitchers Hamlet Donovan and Alberto Ontiveros. All-Star closer Travis Lewis returns, but with guys like Cesar Piedra on the roster, will he even be necessary?
As for the lineup, if Bang and Washington get traded, this team will struggle to score runs, and it will signal the official countdown starting to the day stud prospect Lou Lindsey arrives in the majors. The returning J.T. Timlin helped this squad hit a combined .267/.324/.413 – they can hit for average, but there’s not a lot of pop. Being conservative in the FA market has meant that while there isn’t a lot of talent here, it’s relatively young and inexpensive, which will allow for some flexibility in the coming years. And if the aforementioned trades occur, this team could find itself with a sub $40M roster quickly.
Outlook: Count these guys out for contention this season – I think Robot has already squeezed as much as he could out of these guys. But they are positioned well for a rebuild with some valuable veterans and plenty of cap room. We probably won’t see the entire AL West at or above .500 this year, but this team won’t embarrass the division either.
Predicted division finish: 4th
Sunday, March 27, 2011
GW1 Hall of Fame - Correct Positions
I find it mildly annoying that player positions for the Hall of Fame are listed as what the AI thought the player should be playing when he retired, instead of say something logical, obvious, and simple to program like say... which position said player accumlated the most innings (or more starts or relief appearances for pitchers) or his career.
So I went ahead and did it myself, no love for non-first base infielders!
Catcher
First Base
Second Base
none
Third Base
none
Shortstop
none
Left Field
Center Field
Right Field
Starting Pitcher
Relief Pitcher
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