Thursday, May 31, 2012

GW1 Hall of Fame proposal

As we've been discussing in the world chat, there are too many deserving players on the Hall of Fame ballot this season, especially since we can only vote for five. This causes some problems for people who enjoy the Hall of Fame and want to see it work. First, the more deserving players on the ballot, the less likely players get in, because people won't necessarily vote for the same deserving players at the same time. Second, the fewer players get in this season, the worse the situation will be next season, when it's likely that more deserving players will join the ballot.

So, in an effort to clear the backlog of deserving players, I'm proposing we do our best to induct five players this season. Below I'm going to list 14 players, with some brief stats (if you want to know more about them, click the link to their player card). To the right is a poll with the same 14 players. Please vote for the five players you think are most deserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame. Please only vote once. The poll will close at the end of the day Friday.

At that point, I'll post the names of the five players who got the most votes in the poll and propose that we all vote for those five players. Obviously, you don't have to. But if you want to clear the backlog of (what should be) sure Hall of Famers, this is the best way to do it.

Abraham Davis, SP

3.75 ERA with 2,500 strikeouts in 3,550 innings

Juan DeSoto, C

.415 OBP, .536 SLG, .951 OPS in 6,153 at-bats
182 passed balls, 19.7% success rate on throwing out base stealers in 12,800 innings at catcher

Sid Fleming, 3B/CF

.325 OBP, .519 SLG, .844 OPS in 8,816 at-bats
43 +, 5 - plays in 6,562 innings at 3B
12 +, 46 - plays in 7,040 innings at CF

Darron Kirkland, 2B/3B/SS

.346 OBP, .498 SLG, .844 OPS in 9,025 at-bats
 29 +, 3 - plays in 5,294 innings at 2B
19 +, 2 - plays in 5,393 innings at 3B
3 +, 21 - plays in 5,945 innings at SS

Aaron McGowan, RP

3.37 ERA with 1,072 strikeouts in 1,259 innings

Darrin Murphy, 2B

.352 OBP, .494 SLG, .846 OPS in 7,749 at-bats
17 +, 38 - plays in 13,455 innings at 2B

Dennis Nelson, RF/LF

.368 OBP, .522 SLG, .890 OPS in 10,592 at-bats
16 +, 30 - plays in 16,866 innings in RF
4 +, 19 - plays in 4,394 innings in LF

Brent O'Donnell, RF

.377 OBP, .536 SLG, .913 OPS in 9,074 at-bats
8 +, 68 - plays in 13,121 innings in RF

Jumbo Rijo, C

.364 OBP, .590 SLG, .954 OPS in 8,175 at-bats
92 passed balls, 28.4% success rate throwing out base stealers in 12,090 innings at C

Doug Rueter 2B/SS/CF

.339 OBP, .477 SLG, .816 OPS in 8,832 at-bats
20 +, 8 - plays in 6,795 innings at 2B
5 +, 21 - plays in 3,919 innings at SS
4 +, 11 - plays in 4,330 innings at CF

Pete Skinner, CF

.338 OBP, .498 SLG, .836 OPS in 8,781 at-bats
207 +, 24 - plays in 19,315 innings at CF

Richard Stocker, 1B

.387 OBP, .573 SLG, .960 OPS in 7,566 at-bats
16 +, 22 - plays in 13,380 innings at 1B

Gerald Tomlinson, SP

3.95 ERA with 3,235 strikeouts in 4,032 innings

Dusty Zoltan, SS

.326 OBP, .360 SLG, .686 OPS in 7,159 at-bats
136 +, 27 - plays in 16,527 innings at SS

Friday, February 10, 2012

Gleeman World All-Time Franchise Standings

I compiled the numbers for each franchise through 21 seasons of Gleeman World. They are listed below, with teams separated by league and ranked by regular season winning percentage.

Here's a key for the abbreviations used:
W% = Winning Percentage
D = Division Titles
P = Playoff Appearances
L = LCS Appearances
W = World Series Appearances
$ = Championships
AL TEAMS         WIN    LOSS      W%    D    P    L    W    $
Fatboys 2151 1251 .632 16 21 14 7 4
Metropolitans 1915 1487 .563 11 14 10 7 5
Europeans 1910 1492 .561 5 15 2 1 1
Red Sox 1849 1553 .544 7 12 5 3 2
Heat 1717 1685 .505 7 9 1 0 0
Roustabouts 1716 1686 .504 5 8 2 0 0
Enrollers 1715 1687 .504 9 11 3 0 0
Boeheims 1686 1716 .496 0 6 1 1 0
Devil Rays 1674 1728 .492 7 7 0 0 0
Tumbleweeds 1632 1770 .480 0 2 0 0 0
Vacuums 1630 1772 .479 7 7 2 1 1
Pug Dogs 1581 1821 .465 1 2 0 0 0
A's 1558 1844 .458 7 8 0 0 0
Outlaw Reds 1503 1899 .442 2 4 2 1 0
Sky Sox 1468 1934 .432 0 0 0 0 0
Vandals 1467 1935 .431 0 0 0 0 0
NL TEAMS         WIN    LOSS      W%    D    P    L    W    $
Jayhawks 1928 1474 .567 6 15 7 3 0
Yankees 1845 1557 .542 8 14 4 3 0
Greys 1845 1557 .542 9 10 3 1 0
Anteaters 1831 1571 .538 11 12 7 3 1
Mafia 1826 1576 .537 13 14 4 3 0
Twins 1736 1666 .510 4 9 4 2 1
Bootleggers 1678 1724 .493 6 10 1 1 1
Comics 1674 1728 .492 4 6 2 0 0
Mashers 1656 1746 .487 1 5 2 0 0
Havoc 1649 1753 .485 4 4 1 0 0
Benjamins 1647 1755 .484 6 8 4 4 4
Nard Doggs 1624 1778 .477 1 4 1 0 0
Strohs 1595 1807 .469 3 3 0 0 0
Santa Marias 1591 1811 .468 3 3 0 0 0
Longspur 1582 1820 .465 3 5 1 0 0
Redbirds 1557 1845 .458 1 2 1 1 0
WINNING PERCENTAGE           PLAYOFF APPEARANCES
Fatboys .632 Fatboys 21
Jayhawks .567 Europeans 15
Metropolitans .563 Jayhawks 15
Europeans .561 Metropolitans 14
Red Sox .544 Mafia 14
Yankees .542 Yankees 14
Greys .542 Anteaters 12
Anteaters .538 Red Sox 12
Mafia .537 Enrollers 11
Twins .510 Bootleggers 10
Heat .505 Greys 10
Roustabouts .504 Heat 9
Enrollers .504 Twins 9
LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIPS         WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS
Fatboys 7 Metropolitans 5
Metropolitans 7 Fatboys 4
Benjamins 4 Benjamins 4
Yankees 3 Red Sox 2
Jayhawks 3 Anteaters 1
Mafia 3 Europeans 1
Red Sox 3 Vacuums 1
Anteaters 3 Gougers 1
Twins 2 Twins 1

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Lessons Learned in Player Value

With the new rule in place that considers any owner with more than 2 seasons of experience a "vet" with no veto protection from other owners, the best thing to do for newer owners is to help educate them. I recommend following these unofficial rules for the first 1-5 seasons:

1. Don't make any trades in seasons 1-2
a) only exception is if there is at least one experienced, unbiased owner that reviews it for you beforehand

2. Don't sign a FA to a contract >$5M/year for more than 3 years without asking an experienced, unbiased owner about it first

3. Don't release any player unless you have maxed out roster throughout your minor leagues. If you're at that point, release a guy with at 3+ years of experience with the lowest OVR rating (which is only useful until you get a handle on the true meaningful ratings)

4. If your fielding instructor is not willing to return, prepare to spend $3-$5M on a FI and try to get at least a 70 glove rating. FI's can be very expensive and they are crucial to defensive development.

Mistakes I've made:
First of all, in none of these cases did a more experienced owner blatantly rip me off. This is not intended to demonstrate owners acting against the league's best interests - none of these trades was "vetoable" nor should they have been. But in every case I made a decision that was based upon my non-complete knowledge of player values and the value of money...and all of these decisions were made when I had 6 or less seasons of experience with HBD. I guess I'm a slow learner?

Trade #1 (S3, my first full season of control):
I trade Hal Owen, a player with a 28 overall rating, for Russ Perkins, s SP making $8M in his last contract year. Perkins is immediately my best pitcher (my team was awful) and I was desperate for some SP. And a 28 overall player is awful, right???

Analysis: Perkins ended up pitching for me for just one season, going 14-13 in 211.2 IP with a 1.43 WHIP and 4.97 ERA. This isn't awful, but it's certainly not worth $8M. What I should have realized is that he was essentially a salary dump by the other team - they didn't want to get stuck paying $8M for him even just for one more season, so I should have asked for a minimum of $4M of salary coverage if I was going to take him on my team (and even if I was giving up nothing in return). In the other team's defense, he was coming off of a 1.28 WHIP/3.24 ERA season...so he appeared to be a much better pitcher than what his ratings would suggest.

So Perkins +$4M for a random minor leaguer would have been ok. But I didn't give up a random minor leaguer...I gave up an awesome pinch hitter for an NL team. Owen's overall rating is artificially low because his durability was 11. But his batting ratings were decent and he was still improving...and an 83 batting eye can be hard to find. In his ML career (all since the trade) he has hit .291/.384/.422 in 1411 AB's...and what tops it all off is that a player with this low of an overall rating is always willing to play for the bare minimum salary. In that sense, he's an even more valuable commodity than his good stats would suggest alone.

Conclusion: I traded for a pitcher who I paid $8M to throw 212 replacement-level innings in return for a career .806 OPS player who has made $3M total in 9 major league seasons.

Other comments:
This post already is longer than I anticipated and I need to install a car seat and put together a crib this afternoon, so I think I'll leave this trade as the lone example. But here a few "Cliff's Notes" regarding other uninformed mistakes I've made:

1. #1 starters are the most valuable commodity, followed closely (or some would say equal to) by CF and SS with a solid glove who can hit for a .850+ OPS. If you're trading a future #1 starter for a SS who you think fits the bill, make sure the SS is at least 82+ in all defensive categories and that his batting splits are at least >65 (these are generic, personal guidelines). I made this mistake with the Mesa-Millwood trade in season 7 (Edgar Mesa and Neil Millwood).

2. Like mentioned above, solid defensive players who can hit are valuable. I pulled the trigger on Haywood Enders way too early and didn't get a decent return (Roberto Cortez). Cortez is available for trade, by the way! He'd be a great #5 starter or long reliever for a non-contending team. But even when I traded for him he was clearly projecting to be no better than a #4 starter and I gave up a guy who could be plugged in at 2B or 3B for a long career and be counted on to produce decent stats (especially at 2B). Some guys have bad seasons...it was unfortunate that Enders' career with me started that way.

Again, this post is not intended to "call out" the owners on the other sides of the trades...it's to illustrate the small errors in judgment that can result in the degradation of one's overall franchise value. I'll quote Ernest Hemingway from The Sun Also Rises: when asked how he went bankrupt, a man replies "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." The same could be said for your beloved HBD franchise.

Caveat Emptor.

GW2 prediction

Here's my prediction for the players involved in the trade that sickchangeup hates.

In Season 12, Ismael Coronado will post at least a .685 OPS and will have more plus plays on defense than minus plays.

At least once by the end of Season 16, Sammy Matos and Everth Quintero will have combined for at least 90 innings pitched and an ERA under 4.00.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

GW1 Hall of Fame voting

Season 14

Red Wainhouse - 29 votes
Fritz Rushford - 28 votes
Vic Alfonzo - 24 votes
Billy Ray Prince - 19 votes

Season 15

Haywood Towers - 26 votes
Geoffery Bates - 22 votes
Brian Murata - 20 votes

Season 16

Hector Santos - 22 votes
Edwin Hogan - 21 votes
Toby Joseph - 19 votes

Season 17

Bryan Beckett - 30 votes
Trey Fonville - 22 votes
Ruben Crespo - 18 votes

Season 18

Don Masato - 26 votes

Season 19

Bernard Rhodes - 25 votes
Gary Long - 22 votes

Season 20

Matt Governale - 23 votes
Chipper Velandia - 22 votes

Also getting votes: Nash McCartin 11, Ronald Garcia 9, Bill Cameron 7, Max Leary 5, Dusty Zoltan 4, Thumper Neagle 4, Nigel Whang 3, Lou Gil 3, Brad Jefferson 3, Doug Rueter 2, Tim Stark 2, Darron Jenkins 2, R.J. Granados 2, Darwin Stocker 2, J.D. Jackson 1, Hector Hernandez 1, Derek Page 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Ralph Jackson 1, Richard Maxwell 1, Dennis James 1

Season 21

Nash McCartin - 24 votes
Ronald Garcia - 23 votes
Bill Cameron - 17 votes

Also getting votes: Max Leary 9, Darron Jenkins 7, Darron Kirkland 7, Doug Rueter 7, Thumper Neagle 5, Lou Gil 4, Dusty Zoltan 3, Nigel Whang 2, Nate McMillan 1, R.J. Granados 1, Daryle Petrick 1, Brad Jefferson 1, Dennis James 1, Ted Simpson 1, Charlie Stevens 1, Derek Page 1, John Carroll 1, Ricardo Rincon 1.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Hall Of Fame Candidates: Season 19

In an effort to help everyone evaluate the Hall of Fame candidates for Season 19, here are their career numbers simplified for easy comparisons (along with my analysis). I've included all pitchers with 1,000 innings and all hitters with 6,500 plate appearances.
PITCHER              IP      ERA
Gary Long 3000 3.50
Benny Molina 2700 4.00
Max Leary 2600 3.50
Jayson Ellis 2100 4.00
Miguel Torres 1800 4.00
Billy Stovall 1600 3.50
Tim Stark 1250 3.25
J.D. Jackson 1050 3.25
My take: Gary Long should be a no-brainer pick as one of the truly elite pitchers in Gleeman World history, but Max Leary is under-appreciated. Leary has the same ERA as Long in about 13 percent fewer innings and is clearly ahead of the other starter candidates. Tim Stark and J.D. Jackson are among the top relievers in Gleeman World history, but I'm not very keen on voting for relievers when they have only half as many innings as various starter candidates.
HITTER               PA      OPS     POS
Bernard Rhodes 10300 .925 1B/LF
Darrin Murphy 8400 .850 2B/1B
Bud Jones 8300 .850 LF/RF
Luis Cervantes 7700 .875 1B/DH
Ralph Jackson 7700 .875 DH/1B
Thumper Neagle 7600 .900 DH/C
Nate McMillan 7400 .850 DH/1B
Brooks Zaun 7300 .825 RF/3B
Bono Hughes 7300 .775 3B/RF
R.J. Granados 7000 .875 2B/LF
Darwin Stocker 7000 .850 RF/LF
Ted Simpson 6900 .900 1B/DH
Dennis James 6900 .850 SS/3B
Jose Morales 6700 .825 LF/RF
Nigel Whang 6700 .800 CF/LF
Tony Cortes 6600 .825 SS/3B
My take: As one of three Gleeman World players with 3,000 hits Bernard Rhodes is a no-brainer even more so than Long on the pitching side. After that it gets a bit muddled, as the ballot is filled with first basemen, designated hitters, and corner outfielders with OPS in the .850-.900 range. I tend to think middle infielders and center fielders are too often overlooked, so I'd highlight Darrin Murphy as being very underrated with the second-most plate appearances of any candidate and a bat that compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates while playing mostly second base (albeit not particularly well).

Dennis James' bat also compares to most 1B/LF/RF candidates, yet he played third base and shortstop. Having only 6,900 plate appearances hurts his case, but his .850 OPS was significantly more valuable than all those .850-.900 OPS from 1B/LF/RF. Jose Morales has gotten substantial support in the past despite only 6,700 plate appearances and he's a solid enough candidate, but I'm not sure why anyone would rank him above Nigel Whang. Morales had an .800 OPS and 600 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a left fielder, while Whang had an .800 OPS and 500 steals in 6,700 PA as mostly a center fielder. Their offensive contributions are nearly identical and once you factor in defense and positional adjustments Whang should clearly be ahead.

My ballot: Bernard Rhodes, Gary Long, Max Leary, Darrin Murphy.

Monday, May 9, 2011

NL Season 18 Preview Followup

I was curious as to how successful I was on my preseason predictions. So here goes:

NL North:
Milwaukee Twindyans
Prediction: 98-64, NL North Champions
Actual: 109-53, NL North Champions
Difference: +11

Columbus Santa Marias
Prediction: 64-98, 3rd place
Actual: 56-106, 4th place
Difference: -8

Cleveland Redbirds
Prediction: 91-71, WC
Actual: 95-67, WC
Difference: +4

Hartford Dark Blues
Prediction: 53-109, 4th place
Actual: 63-99, 3rd place
Difference: +10


NL East:
Chicago Jayhawks

Prediction: 94-68, NL East Champions
Actual: 77-85, 3rd place
Difference: -17 (oops)

New York Yankees
Prediction: 90-72, maybe WC
Actual: 97-65, NL East Champs
Difference: +7

Scranton Nard Doggs
Prediction: 71-91, 3rd place
Actual: 80-82, 2nd place
Difference: +9

Washington Bureaucrats
Prediction: 60-102, 4th place
Actual: 67-95, 4th place
Difference: +7


NL South:
Oklahoma City Twins
Prediction:
85-77, NL South Champs
Actual: 80-82, 3rd place
Difference: -5

Iowa City Comics
Prediction: 78-84, 4th place
Actual: 74-88, 4th place
Difference: -4

St. Louis Greys
Prediction: 83-79, 2nd place
Actual: 87-75, NL South Champs
Difference: +4

Nashville Havoc
Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place
Actual: 84-78, 2nd place
Difference: +3

Average Difference Between Prediction and Actual: 7.4 wins
Worst Prediction: -17 (Chicago Jayhawks)
Best Prediction: +3 (Nashville Havoc)