Saturday, February 9, 2008

AL North Preview: Season 6

Minnesota (Season 5: 96-66, Al North & World Series Champion)

Season 5 represented a bit of a dip for the Fatboys, as they dropped 15 games in the win column after scoring about 50 less runs while allowing 40 extra runners to cross the plate. Staying steady with a 64 million payroll in their 5th season was a great accomplishment however, since competitive teams across the world have almost all seen a spike in payroll over the past 5 seasons. Finishing their year with a second straight title crowned management's patient philosophy, since the team is still poised to compete for many years to come despite it's success.

Perhaps as part of that philosophy, and with a commitment to a low payroll, the Fatboys let former All-Stars SP Dale Rooney and SS Gerald Kim walk during the offseason, replacing Kim with a shrewd trade that netted the franchise a few hundred thousand after arbitration, in addition to a talented SS replacement in the form of Pat Badilla. Returning for another go around are All-Stars SP Ruben Crespo (Cy Young runner-up), 2B Mikey Bennett (who also won a GG), LF Trey Fonville (also GG LF) and CF Nigel Whang (also the AL CF Silver Slugger). Of that group only CF Whang is at any risk of being on the other side of the proverbial hill, but the growth of ROY Jumbo Rijo should more than make up for any of it.

In the end, the 2-time champs are once again the team to beat in Season 6.

Season 6 Prediction: 105-57, best record in the AL


Syracuse (Season 5: 88-74)

Season 5 was a good one in Syracuse, as the franchise posted a record high 88 wins, although they failed to make the playoffs for what would be their second ever trip to the postseason. Led by the All-Star arms and gloves of 27 year old SP Adam Haynes, 31 year old ClA Domingo Lee and 25 year old Gold Glove SS Dusty Zoltan, the team trimmed a solid 97 runs off their Season 4 total. And the offense, led by All-Star RF Hector Hernandez, wasn't far behind, posting a franchise record 908 runs.

Want more good news? The team posted another franchise best (low) with a 46 million dollar payroll, leaving it the ability to either be a big player in the FA market, or continue to apply 20+ million towards building up the high level talent in it's minor league system. Perhaps for this reason, it's a little difficult at this time to predict what will happen in Syracuse, although it's reasonable to expect that management will continue up the patient route, enjoying the certain boost to it's win total from young players like future stud Sting Berger and Mark Allensworth.

Prediction: 92-70 and a wild card birth


Buffalo (Season 5: 83-79)

In what is gonna be a recurring theme of good news in what now appears to be the most competitive division in baseball, the Buffalo Europeans posted a franchise high 83 wins in Season 5. And even so, the season had to represent a bit of a disappointment for management, having increased team payroll by 15 million only to gain a measly 4 extra wins. Perhaps a good parallel for the team's performance this past season would be that of it's enigmatic "star" and leader, SP Gary Hermanson, who's high ratings continued to disappoint for a fifth straight year. Not disappointing with his performance was All-Star SP Abraham Davis (18-8, 238.2, 3.28), the teams sole representative in the awards roster, and a pitcher expected to contend for a Cy Young for years to come.

But the story of disappointment is not the future you should expect from this franchise. After a few advantageous trades and drafts, the Europeans are simply loaded with top level talent. Already in the bigs we have SS Luis Uribe, pitcher Clay Young, RF Al Ferrer and 2B Marlon Martin, and you don't even want to look at the pitchers they have in the minors. If you were to look, you'd see a franchise that will need all the disappointment in the world to prevent itself from being a dynasty for years to come in this world.

Season 6 Prediction: 88-74, missing the playoffs


Montreal (Season 5: 81-81)

Yes, last year was a record year in Montreal as well, as the franchise bested it's previous high of 77 wins in Season 4. And yes, in season 5 they posted their lowest payroll at approximately 70 million, some 30 million lower than their season 1 figure. And if it seems like the teams in AG's division have chosen to fight fire with fire, its cause they have! Low payrolls, patient stockpiling of talent, and a refusal to flirt with FA's is contagiously spreading all over the AL North like wildfire, and it's working.

And while this team didn't land any individual awards in Season 5, it shouldn't be too long before the likes of Sid Fleming, Cesar Piedra and Marino Reyes start adding some hardware to the shelves. Unfortunately here is where the story takes a turn for the worse: unlike it's neighbors further North in the standings, Montreal's system is rather barren on the pitching front. It seems likely that Montreal will have to acquire some arms in order to keep up with the gang, either by trading it's plethora of young position player talent (Rich Beltre, Herb Hutton, Bernie Limon to list a few), or by dipping into the FA Market. Either way, this is not a bad foundation to build from.

Season 6 Prediction: (76-86)

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