Monday, March 24, 2008

Draft recap: AL South, AL West, Washington

A look at the draft classes of the eight teams in the AL South and West divisions, plus Washington.

AL South

Nashville Twang

First round: No. 10 pick Tony Pascual looks like a star, as he has the potential to play excellent defense in center field and his projected top-notch patience combined with solid ability in every other offensive area should make him a nice offensive threat. The key will be his ability to stay healthy, which is a big concern. Julian Santos (pick No. 20 as FA compensation) has the potential to be a nice starter with outstanding control, OK splits and a nice array of pitches. And 33rd overall pick Mac Garcia is a top-15 talent who fell because of signability issues. He projects to be an excellent reliever with very good control, an excellent sinker and two other useful pitches. He'll be very tough on righties and solid against lefties. Of Nashville's four first round/supplement picks, only Clint Scarsone (subpar control and splits and unimpressive pitches) was a whiff.

Grade: A

Other picks: It's a good thing the Twang picked up three excellent prospects before the second round, because they didn't get anybody with ML potential from then on. Second-rounder Arnold Hamilton has good enough potential pitches, but his control and splits will drag him down. Same for third-rounder Hanley Watson. Nashville's fifth-, sixth- and seventh-round picks all have good projected control but don't bring anything else to the table.

Grade: D

Florida Cottonmouths

First round: The Cottonmouths didn't pick until No. 72 overall after losing their first-round pick when they signed Izzy Richard, who has been an OK but certainly not spectacular reliever.

Grade: F

Other picks: Florida's first three picks (Pepe DeSoto, Don Vanguri, Andy Peavy) all appear to have the same potential: backup third baseman/corner outfielder in the majors. None of them appears likely to hit well enough to stick in the starting lineup, but at least they do have a shot at reaching the majors.

Grade: C-

San Antonio Sting

First round: With their third consecutive No. 1 overall pick (and it appears their last for quite some time), the Sting selected their third consecutive elite position prospect. Tony Guerrero may have the best bat of the three as he has an outstanding projected contact/power combination and a good batting eye. He should be solid against righties and a terror against lefties. However, unlike Ronald Levrault and Jin-Chi Choi, Guerrero is a serious health risk. If he can avoid a major injury that sets back his development, he should become a multi-time All-Star and maybe even MVP. But that's an if you'd rather avoid with a No. 1 pick if possible.

Grade: A-

Other picks: Second-round pick Greg Webster has a bat that's nearly as good as Guerrero's, and he'll mash whether he catches or DHs. The problem is that he's not durable enough to provide more than 300 or so at-bats once he's developed, so San Antonio will need to have somebody who can share a position with him. Third-round pick Todd Howard looks more like a minor league rotation workhorse than a ML prospect, and reliever Vernon Hodges is probably too wild to succeed in the majors.

Grade: B

Richmond Roustabouts

First round: No. 3 overall pick Vic Martinez is an excellent prospect, but he doesn't appear to be quite as good as Nashville's Pascual, who went seven spots later. Martinez projects to be a very nice defender in center field or at second base, but he doesn't have the excellent eye Pascual has to offset the fact that he doesn't have great potential in either contact or power. He does have the potential to do quite well against righties. And while his health is a concern, it's not as big a concern as Pascual's. It looks like supplemental pick Freddy Rudolph isn't going to sign, which hurts this class. Still, it was probably a decent gamble using the No. 37 pick on somebody who may have projected to be a mid-rotation starter if he'd signed.

Grade: B

Other picks: Second-rounder Ross Riley could develop into a solid backup infielder, but he probably won't hit enough to start in the majors. Nobody else looks that intriguing, and Richmond hasn't signed three of its seven picks in the first six rounds (including Rudolph).

Grade: D+

AL West

Albuquerque Isotopes

First round: The Isotopes lost their first round pick to free agent compensation but picked up a supplemental pick (No. 42 overall) and used it on Willie Sanchez, who has great attributes and big flaws. A catcher, his arm accuracy is going to be a problem that may ultimately force him to DH. He may also struggle against right-handed pitching, but he'll be outstanding against lefties as he has a solid contact/power combination and a great potential batting eye. His other issue is that his health isn't great. He could be anywhere from a complete bust to an All-Star catcher.

Grade: B-

Other picks: Second-round pick Reginald Kelton is an intriguing DH for an organization that doesn't really need any more DHs. He has a nice projected contact/power combination and the potential to beat up on lefties. His patience isn't going to be great and he'll only be decent against righties. Third-round pick Jed Howington has the potential to be a decent reliever as he's got solid projections across the board. Fifth-round pick Luther Robinson is a long-shot to be effective in the majors, but he has a little potential.

Grade: B+

Cheyenne Tackleberries

First round: The Tackleberries will eventually need to decide whether they want him to be a good defensive left fielder or a poor defensive second baseman, but either way Felix McDowell will be a valuable player. The only area on offense in which he's not very good is his ability against lefties, and he's at least decent there. Getting a player of his caliber at No. 13 overall is the upside of taking a chance on a player whose signability is questionable.

Grade: A

Other picks: Second-round pick Sal Fryman may be able to make it to the majors, but he's going to struggle against lefties and he's not great against righties either. Still, excellent control may give him a shot. Chipper Murray could become a defensive replacement catcher in the majors, and there are worse players you could find in the sixth round. Nobody else has ML potential.

Grade: C-

Los Angeles Hangars

First round: The Hangars haven't been able to sign their first-round pick and his high demands may prevent them from ever doing so. If he signs, this grade can obviously change. Fortunately, Los Angeles did have two supplemental picks and used them well. Chris Martin projects to have outstanding control and a phenomenal changeup to go with two other decent pitches. He'll be very tough on righties and decent against lefties. He's a potential ace and should be a good No. 3 starter at a minimum. Craig Murphy isn't going to be able to carry a heavy workload in the bullpen, but his near-perfect projected control and three potential plus pitches should allow him to be effective when he does pitch.

Grade: C+ (losing the No. 12 overall pick hurts a lot)

Other picks: Second-round pick Wilt Blair has a chance to be a back-end starter, but not a great chance, and the same is true for third-rounder J.D. Goldberg. Fourth-rounder Ross Lofton could be a usable reliever, but even if he is he'll only be able to pitch 50-60 innings.

Grade: C+

Santa Cruz Amigos

First round: No. 24 overall pick Jamie Jackson is likely a wasted pick because of his low splits and unspectacular pitches, but there's an outside chance he could be decent. Supplemental pick Byung-Hyun Martin (46th overall) isn't going to be a star but he has solid potential across the board on offense and is a very good value at this point of the draft.

Grade: C

Other picks: Second-rounder Kelvim Takada has the potential to play somewhere in the infield against lefties, but his usefulness is limited by his lack of range and he may struggle to stay healthy. Nobody else seems likely to make any impact in the majors.

Grade: C-

NL East

Washington D.C. Bureaucrats

First round: With the No. 2 overall pick, the Bureaucrats picked up one of the two true potential aces in this draft in Garrett Lorraine. Lorraine projects to have excellent control, two outstanding pitches and equally strong performance against righties and lefties. The two concerns are that his health and durability are both on the low side, so he'll need good training to help him avoid injury and he may occasionally need an extra off day even in a five-man rotation.

Grade: A

Other picks: Second-rounder Bum Spehr has the potential to be a solid reliever, with very good control, a nice group of pitches and decent splits. Third-rounder Alex Patterson has a chance to develop into a big league starting pitcher, but it's a long-shot. And fourth-rounder Louie Mieses could turn into a pinch-hitter or spot starter against righties thanks to his power, but it's more likely that his terrible contact and mediocre patience will keep him in the minors.

Grade: B+

2 comments:

ConorGlassey said...

In hindsight, I thought my 2-4 picks were pretty weak. So, the B grade was generous in my opinion. However, I was surprised there was no mention of my 5th-round pick, who I felt was an absolute steal, Ralph Simmons. The 19-year-old SS is currently hitting .430/.485/.738 over 149 ABs. Yeah, he'll probably have to move to 2B, but he'll be very solid there.

benj13blue said...

The B was entirely for Webster. He can only play half the time, but he'll kill the ball. And there are two very good things about him: first, if you make the playoffs, he can probably play every game unless he's already exhausted when they start. second, since his overall is low, he's not going to be expensive to keep on your team for as long as you want him. I bet he'll never cost you more than 2.5 million, if even that much. I almost mentioned Simmons, but I don't think he'll be able to play second, and his bat doesn't look good enough for third. he's a backup in my opinion, although i probably should have at least listed him since i listed other future backups.