Friday, October 24, 2008

NL North Draft Review

Milwaukee Twindyans

First Round: With the 70th pick in the draft being their first, Milwaukee was never going to pour resources into their scouting budgets this year. Also with the 70th pick being their first, this section is obsolete.

Grade: X

The Rest: So, that much-hyped 70th pick. Bronson Fischer really isn't that exciting. A possible long guy, he may be able to throw a large number of decent innings from a major league bullpen one day. Or they may be well below decent. With only one good pitch and nothing else to make him stand out, it'll be a struggle. The 102nd player chosen was Manny Norris, a plus defender in RF with fairly projectable on-base skills and a decent line drive swing. Feasible that he'll be a major leaguer while making the minimum one day. He'll never be good enough to pay more than that though. Richie Tatum, taken in the 9th has a chance to be a RHS from the pen one day, with good control of his 4-seamer. Aside from that......

The draft was an afterthought in Milwaukee this year and anyone that makes themselves useful down the line will be seen as an unexpected bonus.

Overall Grade: E


Vancouver Vigilantes

First Round: With the 11th pick Vancouver manages to grab a guy who could well have gone No. 1 overall. Phil Walbeck is sick. Superb CF defense combined with a majestic power stroke make him a player with no weaknesses. I'll bet he takes home at least one MVP before his career is over. Seriously.

Grade: A+

The Rest: Steve Stephenson was taken with the 56th pick and should settle in as a setup guy for the length of his career. Good solid pick in that slot. Dwight Burnett went 88th, and despite struggling to hit same-handed pitchers could well find himself a place as an everyday player due to his blazing speed, 2B defense and ability to put the ball in play. While it's no certainly that he'll be an everyday player, this low in the draft it's as good as you can reasonably hope for. Sadly, not much else in this class.

Overall: C+


Ottawa Otters

First Round: Going 10th overall to Ottawa was Marlon Rose, a potential top-of-the rotation starter. Now, the movement of his pitches is awesome. He's comfortable using any of his pitches to go for the K in high pressure situation. Great belief in himself and a stunning work ethic. A perfect, clean slate of health. Sounds too good to be true? It is. His control can let him down at the worst of times. Now, he's as likely as anyone to throw a no-hitter, and should be a top starter, but it's tough to be consistent with iffy control. Best case scenario, Ottawa just drafted Dice-K. Worst case, he puts up ERA's approaching 5 for his career. I like him, but I expect that opinion on Rose will be more divided than on most top 10 picks.

In the supplemental round the Otters picked up Justin Hamilton, another pitcher with a blazing fastball. Without any of his other skills grading out much above average though, it's tough seeing him in any vaguely important role for a major league team. Not so keen.

Grade: B+, Rose has some kind of upside but is pretty tough to project until we get a larger sample size.

The Rest: Fernando Lee, a 3rd rounder, could probably fill in at LF for a cheap team who didn't want to pay a guy more than the minimum. None one would pay him more. That type of guy is a theme for the rest of the class, good career minor-leaguers and a couple of defensive specialists like Albert Barrios. Unexciting but necessary.

Overall: D, to only get one surefire ML'er (who himself has questions) is disappointing, especially with 3 picks in the top 55.


Sioux Falls Gunslingers

First Round: Already profiled in the Top Ten RF Prospects list, Al Baez is a big OF with top defense in the corners. A contact hitter with well above average power, Baez should string together some very nice seasons in his prime. No glaring weaknesses should make him a consistent hitter who'll stay in the top half lineup for 155+ games a year. A valuable commodity indeed.

Grade: B

The Rest: Jimmy Williams was the next guy that the Gunslingers took, a SP prospect with good movement on his pitches but only average control. Another wait-and-see type of guy, he could certainly have a rotation place for many years once he develops. Great, high risk/reward pick at 65. At 97, Sioux Falls picked Max Hall, a 2B who just screams 'Captain Vanilla!'. Average, or a touch above, in every aspect of the game, Hall could well have a long career starting for a weaker side, or backing up 2B, CF and 3B for a better one. Of course you could do better, but while he's cheap he'll carry plenty of value. He'll have a journeyman tag one day. While that's the end of the major league talent in this class, considering the spots they were picking in, Sioux Falls did, I believe, a great job at getting value.

Overall: C+

Three extremely similar draft classes in the NL North (Milwaukee doesn't count, natch), with Sioux Falls grabbing better depth and Vancouver getting the single best player. Same old story though, if Rose turns out to be a top starter....

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