GW2: Trenton Dirty Jerz Season Review

With the season winding down I thought it would be interesting to take a look at my club. Without further ado: The Trenton Dirty Jerz Season 3 Review.

Going into the season I had a couple of goals:
1. Improve from 70 wins in season 2 to closer to 80 wins in season 3.
2. Add 1 Star quality player and 1 Good regular through the draft and International and some supporting players.
3. Keep all my future core players healthy.

Well, the first goal didn’t come to fruition, but I can take some comfort in scoring more runs than I allowed so my team is improving.

I lost 2 of my 5 projected starting pitchers to injuries before they made 10 starts. While Richard Glanville is no world beater he was a useful 5th starter last year and looked like he would be bad to OK this year as well. His injury forced me to go rung deeper on the starting pitcher depth chart, a rung I really wanted to stay away from, but frankly at that point suck is suck.

The starting pitcher injury that really hurt me and caused some chaining impact on my pitching staff was Trenidad Marquez who made 2 starts in AAA before being lost for the season with a labrum tear. This will likely cause him to miss at least spring training next year. He will compete for a rotation spot during season 4, with his effectiveness and sloting largely dependent on how much he bounces back from injury. As I mentioned the loss of Marquez had some chaining implications I used the pitcher I had penciled in as Long A Mike Marte and the pitcher I had penciled in as Long B RJ Stroud into a tandem role for most of the season. Both were rule 5 picks and pitched well and may break camp with the club in season 4, but will have to compete for a spot. Pepe Sierra, another rule 5 pick this year also pitched well as the Dirty Jerz's top setup man.

Bryan Ball one of last year's Rookie of the year finalist had a sophomore slump as his ERA jumped a point and half as he struggled to adjust to a four and a half man rotation. Justin Brooks continued his consistent performance as a reliable starter and Matt Frye had a nice rookie year and will be penciled in for the number 2 or 3 slot in the rotation next year. Weldon Brooks made the club after Glanville's injury and pitched well in a number of roles from starter to closer and will also compete for a spot to make the club out spring training next year. I'm optimistic at being able to improve the pitching staff with internal options next year.

On the offensive side of the ball the team ran in place despite strong rookie years by David Johnson and BC Tucker and surprisingly strong first year by veterans Mike Browne and Michael Baker. Young veterans Chan Dong and Juan Mendoza continued to be excellent and good players receptively. Based on those comments alone you would expect an offense considerably better than last season, however, Pedro Perez fell off a cliff going from silver slugger to 675 OPS while at a less demanding defensive position. Mule Holmes 800+ OPS and 300+ BA dropped to 660 and 250. Alving Gonzalez hit with good power in his debut year but didn’t do much else. Dan Crawford's offense didn't improve as hoped and the tandem of Paul Howington and Gary Johnstone sucked worse than expected at shortstop.

I feel there are some improvements that can be made on the offense next year largely by replacing the sink hole at shortstop, however, it may be tough to get too much better than league average Crawford will need to develop into a solid top of the order on base threat, and Gonzalez will need to get his onbase percentage into an acceptable range.
From a player procurement perspective the season was a big success. I was able to add impact talent through both the draft (historically strong draft) and international (inspite of myself). On the international side I added potential work horse in Louie Hernandez. The Venezuelan is a major league starter now with 70 control, 82/62 splits and 2 league average pitches. The 20 year-old who dominated Hi-A in 100 innings has a lot of growth potential as well with potential strong splits versus both sides and a dominant sinker combined with strong control and the ability to pitch deep into games, on short rest.

With the 6th pick I was able to snag the player I had rated 3rd overall (didn't see a couple players) Richard Blackmon. Blackmon won't be able to stick at SS but depending on how his glove develops he may be able to play CF, 3B, or 2b. Blackmon looks like an elite hitter with excellent power and excellent splits a solid eye and solid contact. He had an excellent year in Low A as an 18 year old. The rest of the draft was largely a bust as my round 2 and 5 pick wouldn't sign and my 3rd and 4th round picks didn’t translate well or develop. I was able to add 3 pitchers through the rule 5 draft who posted solid ERA's, in 350 combined innings.

From an injury perspective the most severe is to Marquez, but considering his ceiling it's not a significant injury to the future of the organization. Thought it cost me a couple of wins last year and will cost me a couple in season 4 and 5. Mike Marte also got injured in the last start of the year, which will have a somewhat minor impact on the team going forward.

Top 15 Prospects:
1. Phillip Holtz: LHP - Drafted in season 2 with the third pick Holtz dominated HiA. He is a major league pitcher now with 72 control, 76/68 splits and 87/67 top 2 pitches, and is developing well with 4-6 points in every major category since spring training looks to be a good bet to get close to his projections: 93 control 89/88 with top pitches of 100 and 81. With 87 health he doesn't have much injury risk associated with him.

2. Louie Hernandez: LHP - Signed as an international in season 3, Hernadez dominated HiA. He is a major league starter now with 70 control, 82/62 splits and first two pitches of 72 and 68 pitches. With only 100 innings as a pro it's tough to gauage his development pace but he looks like a good bet to develop into a number 1 starter who could throw 275 innings, though likely not as dominant as Holtz. 90 Health Rating.

3. Felipe Hernandez: SH, C - An international signed for $20mm out of season 2. Hernadez is an MVP bat whose receiving skills leave much to be desired and may end up at DH depending on how the other catchers in the system develop. Hernadez got solid development this year gaining 4 points across the board and is currently at 70 contact 89 power splits of 88/78 and an eye of 45. That eye is always going to hurt his performance but mid to high 90's power with 80's contract and high 80's splits will go a long way to compensate for the problem. The time table on Hernandez is a little clouded he certainly will spend next year and the first 20 games of season 5 in AAA, however, weather he repeats the full year or comes to the show will be dependent on how the team plays in season 5. Health rating 94.

4. Richard Blackmon: RHH, Inf - Drafted 6th overall in season 3 Blackmon looks like an allstar bat at either 3b, 2b, of CF with great power and great splits. Like most players with no pro-experience he got little progression but lit up Low-A while getting acclimated. Blackmon is sitting at: 72 power, 61/53 splits and 61 control, his bat control is his weak point at only 34. My best guess is he will end up with low 90's power and mid 80's splits and an above average eye. Defensively he projects to be very sure handed with average range for most positions with an arm passable for all positions but SS. 84 health rating.

5.Felix Nomo: LHP - Nomo signed in season 1 as an international with a $26mm bonus has been somewhat of a disappointment. While he has developed and looks like he will debut in game 21 of season 5 he isn't turning into the dominant pitcher I thought I was getting. After 2 full years of development he is sitting at: 77 control, 75/64 splits and 92/76 first two pitches with great velocity and a strong groundball tendency. His pitches, his control and versus LHP is still developing but if his versus RHP doesn’t get a good 3rd year jump he is not going to be the impact player I had hoped for. Health rating 64.

6. Albert Puente: RHP - Acquired 9th overall in the season 1 amateur draft Puente doesn’t have the upside of either Holtz or Hernandez but looks like he will be a high end SP going forward. Puente is further along in his development than either Holtz or Hernandez as he has had more developmental time and is a year older. Puente is a soft-tosser without a dominant outpitch but will have good control and work both sides of the plate. He currently sits at 81 control, 62/68 splits and 74/78 top 2 pitches and developed 4 points in most major categories with his big 3rd year of development ahead hopefully he will get a needed bump in his pitches and will continue to develop his control and splits. 94 Health Rating

7. Dick Hull: RH, SS - Signed by Vancouver as a $13.9mm international in season 1 and was acquired via trade early in season 2. Hull list here at SS and is even money to land somewhere else as his defense even if fully developed is stretched at SS. Hull looks like he will be a top of the order player with a strong eye and very good on base skills. Currently his ratings are 52 contact, 56 power, 72 vs L, 67 vs R, 83 eye. It looks like Hull will be ready for a regular role 20 games into season 5, however, if he can't play SS where he will play is somewhat murky, perhaps playing center or 2b and pushing Dong to left or 1b. Heath rating 82

8. Kevin Matthews: LHP: Drafted in the supplemental round of the season 1 draft. A college closer Matthews has all the stuff to be a great closer in the bigs but struggled at Low and High A before having a solid season in AA this year. Matthews will probably be limited to a traditional 1 inning closer role. Currently, has a control of 76 splits of 67/68 and pitches of 86 and 96. It's likely he will hit mid 80's control mid 70's splits with dominant pitches. Matthews looks to debut in season 5. Health 60.

9. Victor Prieto: LHP: Prieto the one inherited player in the top 10 will challenge for a job in the bullpen next year after a dominant season in AA and slowing development. Prieto will never walk less than 3 per 9 but outside of below average control he is a the total package for an RP. 50 stamina, 28 durability will get him over 100 innings a year splits at 84/82, a fastball 83 and a sinker at 86 his weakness is his 54 control. He probably has a point or two of development left which he may get at the major league level. Health 56.

10. Justin Romero: RH, 1B - Aquired through trade in season 1. Nothing special as a player. More or less fully developed and ready to take a full time role next season as DH. Won't be a world beater but should be a reliable 800 OPS player until a better option is available through the farm or free agency. Currently 70 contact, 60 Power, 79/63 splits, 67 eye. Health 77.

11. Paul Marte: RH, C - An inherited player may be squeezed for a job despite having good hitting skills. This all bat catcher is ready to hit in the bigs now despite only being in HiA this season. Marte is a solid but unspectacular 62 contract, 74 power, 57/62 splits and 80 eye. Defensively his game calling leaves a lot to be desired as does his arm. With better catchers, 1b and DH's sprinkled throughout the system he may be trade bait or a bench bat. Health 78.

12. Migue Cruz: RH, 2b - a second round draft pick is developing nicely and had a strong year in LowA. Cruz's bat is progressing quickly and looks like it will be solid if he can continue to develop. He will never be a star, but can be a regular at 2b or CF. His bat stands at 61 contract, 41 power, 62/53 splits and 62 eye and advancing quickly. With 79/84 range/hands projection he could be a regular for a long time. Health 58.

13. Bryan Cordova: LHP - An inherited player who looks like he will be a solid back of the rotation starter on a short term basis. His development has slowed considerably this year, but he will compete for a job in the big league rotation next spring. He has solid unremarkable control, solid unremarkable pitches and below average control. Contol 62, 60/52 splits and pitches 79/73/50/67. Health 87.

14. Phil Riggs: RHP - Traded for in season 1, another young pitcher whose development has stalled. Solid control and tough on righties with a good outpitch Riggs has some weaknesses in so much that he doesn't throw all that hard, doesn't induce all that many grounders and doesn't have much after his good fastball and league average curve. Currently at 79 control, 51/72 splits with 83/68 first two pitches and not blessed with an arm that is very rubbery. He will compete for a spot on the staff next year. Health 92

15. Albert Martin: RB SS: An inherited player who has the inside track on the starting SS gig next year. He isn't much of a hitter 27 contact, 47 power, 43/37 splits and 46 eye but a solid defender currently at 87/83/88/89. While nothing to write home about an improvement over the current situation and if he can stay healthy next year he may get 600 PA's starting on opening day. Health: 39

Others of Note: Miguel Terreo, Steve Farley, Nicholas McKiney, Denis Thornton, Kordell Kirby, Harry Cora, Luis Martin, Brent Ransom, Tori Thomas, Trenidad Marquez, Juan Deleon, Nigel File, Mark Duncan, Eli Segui

Projected Season 4 Roster

1. C: Juan Mendoza (season 3)
2. 1b: Mike Browne (season 3)
3. 2b: Chan Dong (season 3)
4. 3b: BC Tucker (season 3)
5. SS: Albert Martin (AAA)
6. LF: Alving Gonzalez/Luis Martin platoon (season 3)
7. CF: Dan Crawford (season 3)
8. RF: David Johnson (season 3)
9. DH: Justin Romero (AAA)
10. C: Michael Baker (season 3)
11. Util: Pedro Perez or FA upgrade (season 3)
12. SS/CF: Gary Johnstone (season 3)
13. Platoon Gonzalez/Martin (AAA)
14. Free Agent
15: SP1 Justin Brooks (season 3)
16: SP2 Bryan Ball (season 3)
17: SP3 Matt Frye (season 3)
18: SP4 Marquez/Cordova/Riggs (DL/AAA/AA)
19: SP5 Marquez/Cordova/Riggs (DL/AAA/AA)
20: Long A: Prieto/Mike Marte /Riggs (AA/season 3)
21: Long B: Mike Marte/Cradle/RJ Stroud/Brooks (season 3)
22: SetA: Prieto/Nicholas Mckiney (AA)
23: SetB Pepe Sierra/Mike Marte/Cradle/RJ Stroud/Brooks (season 3)
24: SetB: Pepe Sierra/Mike Marte/Cradle/RJ Stroud/Brooks (season 3)
25: Cl: Dennis Thornton (AA)

Overall, I think the club will be better next year. Hopefully up near 500. My payroll looks be less in season 4 than season 3 as the last of the bad inherited contracts will roll off the books. I’m not opposed to adding talent via trade, however, I would want to add talent at spots of organizational weakness that would fit into my long term plans. Relieve pitcher and SS/CF and perhaps corner outfield or 1b are areas that I would improve with the right move. I like my organizational starting pitching even if it is a little far away.

Goals for season 4

1. 80 wins.
2. Keep the prospects and young veterans healthy.
3. Add 2 impact players in player procurement.
4. Add some depth system wide and perhaps trading some AA and AAA prospects for Low A prospects to restock the lower part of the farm.