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Season 17 Record: 96-66, lost to the Minnesota Fatboys in the World Series.
EXP W%: .618 (projected out to 100-62 over 162 games)
Notable acquisitions: none
Notable departures: none
The Twindyans culminated their most successful regular season since S8 with a somewhat surprising playoff run that ended in a World Series loss to the 3-time champion Fatboys. Whether it stemmed from complacency, a desire to keep the same faces around, or an unwillingness to spend in the free agent market, management elected to return every member on the 25 man roster. Given that the team's 96 wins last season were actually 4 wins below its expected winning percentage, there's little doubt that the Twindyans will contend again. There are some warning signs; 7 of the returnees are 34 or older, and scouts suggest sluggers Kareem Duckworth and Jin-Chi Choi may not age particularly gracefully. There isn't much help coming through the minor league pipeline, either. However, these issues are hardly relevant for the upcoming season. This is a playoff team.
Prediction: 98-64, NL North Champions
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Season 17 Record: 71-91, 2nd place
Exp W%: .436 (71-91)
Notable acquisitions: none
Notable departures: OF Joaquin Cordero, 3B Del Tavarez, P Sam Roberts, P Gary Hermanson, P Carlos Santiago, P Chili Coles
The Santa Marias, after another dismal season, have decided to blow it all up and start from scratch. Gone are several core veteran players, replaced by a smattering of modestly talented (and even that's a stretch) kids tasked with the job of keeping the franchise from plummeting to new lows. LF Willie Espinoza might be the only above average position player in a punchless lineup (.688 OPS in S17), and GM mrincubus may end up moving him at some point during the season. The pitching, supposedly the team's strength, took a significant hit; innings-eater Chili Coles opted for free agency, and the team's best pitcher, Sam Roberts, was flipped to Minnesota. With no talent coming in to replace any of the holes, this could get ugly quickly.
Prediction: 64-98, 3rd place
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Season 17 Record: 67-95, 3rd place
EXP W%: .425 (69-93)
Notable acquisitions: CF Branch Laker, 3B Del Tavarez, SS Leonardo Nen, P Birdie Cornelius, P Max Moehler, P Gerard Tomlinson
Notable departures: P Alex Rojas, P Grant Westbrook, P Dennis Cohen, P Ted Roskos, 3B Sting Berger, P Aaron McGowan
The Redbirds turned out to be the surprise team of the offseason, trading for 2-time All-Star CF Branch Laker and defensive whiz 3B Del Tavarez, then committing a combined $161.5MM on three starting pitchers through free agency. Sluggers Brent O'Donnell and Tony Guerrero return, along with the rest of the supporting cast, to form an offense that should be at least adequate. The pitching goes from terrible (4.70 ERA, 2nd worst in the NL) to a point of strength. Cornelius is a legitimate ace, Moehler will give the Redbirds quality innings, if not quantity, and Tomlinson is more than an innings-eater. And while the bullpen could be a problem, it's hardly a disaster, and they do have prospects waiting in the wings at AAA to take over, should somebody falter. It's not a team built to last, but look for them to challenge for a wildcard slot this season.
Prediction: 91-71, WC
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Season 17 Record: 60-102, 4th place
EXP W%: .349 (57-105)
Notable acquisitions: 1B Matt Governale
Notable departures: CF Shane Raben, P Kenneth Thomas, P Paul Wilson, P Jay Piazza, SS Brian Hendricksen, P Javy Gomez, P Jesus Santos
The Dark Blues were, by any measure, the worst team in the National League in S17. Understandably, GM tjefferson jettisoned many of the players that received the most playing time, including disasters Javy Gomez (146 1/3 IP, 6.83 ERA) and Jay Piazza (86 2/3 IP, 6.65 ERA). Unfortunately, the replacements don't figure to be a whole lot better. Pretend you know nothing about the team. If someone told you that the 25 man roster on Opening Day would consist of 4 waiver-wire castoffs, and 5(!) Rule 5 draft picks, how good would you think that team was?
Exactly.
Additionally, not every player leaving Hartford was terrible. The Dark Blues lost their best position player in Shane Raben and a quality reliever in Thomas. The lineup isn't a complete disaster; Esteban Lecuona was terrific last season, and both Enrique Melendez and Ronnie Malloy can hit as well. However, the National League's worst pitching staff doesn't really look any better this season, the lineup still has far too many holes, and there's absolutely no depth anywhere, should anyone get hurt. There's no reason to think that this team will improve on last season's record, and that's saying a lot.
Prediction: 53-109, 4th place
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