Saturday, February 9, 2008

AL North Preview: Season 6

Minnesota (Season 5: 96-66, Al North & World Series Champion)

Season 5 represented a bit of a dip for the Fatboys, as they dropped 15 games in the win column after scoring about 50 less runs while allowing 40 extra runners to cross the plate. Staying steady with a 64 million payroll in their 5th season was a great accomplishment however, since competitive teams across the world have almost all seen a spike in payroll over the past 5 seasons. Finishing their year with a second straight title crowned management's patient philosophy, since the team is still poised to compete for many years to come despite it's success.

Perhaps as part of that philosophy, and with a commitment to a low payroll, the Fatboys let former All-Stars SP Dale Rooney and SS Gerald Kim walk during the offseason, replacing Kim with a shrewd trade that netted the franchise a few hundred thousand after arbitration, in addition to a talented SS replacement in the form of Pat Badilla. Returning for another go around are All-Stars SP Ruben Crespo (Cy Young runner-up), 2B Mikey Bennett (who also won a GG), LF Trey Fonville (also GG LF) and CF Nigel Whang (also the AL CF Silver Slugger). Of that group only CF Whang is at any risk of being on the other side of the proverbial hill, but the growth of ROY Jumbo Rijo should more than make up for any of it.

In the end, the 2-time champs are once again the team to beat in Season 6.

Season 6 Prediction: 105-57, best record in the AL


Syracuse (Season 5: 88-74)

Season 5 was a good one in Syracuse, as the franchise posted a record high 88 wins, although they failed to make the playoffs for what would be their second ever trip to the postseason. Led by the All-Star arms and gloves of 27 year old SP Adam Haynes, 31 year old ClA Domingo Lee and 25 year old Gold Glove SS Dusty Zoltan, the team trimmed a solid 97 runs off their Season 4 total. And the offense, led by All-Star RF Hector Hernandez, wasn't far behind, posting a franchise record 908 runs.

Want more good news? The team posted another franchise best (low) with a 46 million dollar payroll, leaving it the ability to either be a big player in the FA market, or continue to apply 20+ million towards building up the high level talent in it's minor league system. Perhaps for this reason, it's a little difficult at this time to predict what will happen in Syracuse, although it's reasonable to expect that management will continue up the patient route, enjoying the certain boost to it's win total from young players like future stud Sting Berger and Mark Allensworth.

Prediction: 92-70 and a wild card birth


Buffalo (Season 5: 83-79)

In what is gonna be a recurring theme of good news in what now appears to be the most competitive division in baseball, the Buffalo Europeans posted a franchise high 83 wins in Season 5. And even so, the season had to represent a bit of a disappointment for management, having increased team payroll by 15 million only to gain a measly 4 extra wins. Perhaps a good parallel for the team's performance this past season would be that of it's enigmatic "star" and leader, SP Gary Hermanson, who's high ratings continued to disappoint for a fifth straight year. Not disappointing with his performance was All-Star SP Abraham Davis (18-8, 238.2, 3.28), the teams sole representative in the awards roster, and a pitcher expected to contend for a Cy Young for years to come.

But the story of disappointment is not the future you should expect from this franchise. After a few advantageous trades and drafts, the Europeans are simply loaded with top level talent. Already in the bigs we have SS Luis Uribe, pitcher Clay Young, RF Al Ferrer and 2B Marlon Martin, and you don't even want to look at the pitchers they have in the minors. If you were to look, you'd see a franchise that will need all the disappointment in the world to prevent itself from being a dynasty for years to come in this world.

Season 6 Prediction: 88-74, missing the playoffs


Montreal (Season 5: 81-81)

Yes, last year was a record year in Montreal as well, as the franchise bested it's previous high of 77 wins in Season 4. And yes, in season 5 they posted their lowest payroll at approximately 70 million, some 30 million lower than their season 1 figure. And if it seems like the teams in AG's division have chosen to fight fire with fire, its cause they have! Low payrolls, patient stockpiling of talent, and a refusal to flirt with FA's is contagiously spreading all over the AL North like wildfire, and it's working.

And while this team didn't land any individual awards in Season 5, it shouldn't be too long before the likes of Sid Fleming, Cesar Piedra and Marino Reyes start adding some hardware to the shelves. Unfortunately here is where the story takes a turn for the worse: unlike it's neighbors further North in the standings, Montreal's system is rather barren on the pitching front. It seems likely that Montreal will have to acquire some arms in order to keep up with the gang, either by trading it's plethora of young position player talent (Rich Beltre, Herb Hutton, Bernie Limon to list a few), or by dipping into the FA Market. Either way, this is not a bad foundation to build from.

Season 6 Prediction: (76-86)

Friday, February 8, 2008

NL South Preview: Season 6

Iowa City Comics (96-66, NL South champions)

Iowa City has a been a dominant force in the NL for the past 3 seasons and has often been overlooked because New York and Chicago are bigger markets and have louder owners. Iowa City has won a tough division for 3 years in a row but has not had much playoff success; the Comics have only won one playoff series in 3 seasons.

How have they had such a successful run you might wonder? One reason has to be first baseman Chipper Velandia, who has been the best hitter in the league since creation. The Big Chip, along with second baseman
Charlie Ratliff, and RF/CF Ricardo Rincon, will form the offensive core for Iowa City, which was fourth best in the NL and only 34 runs from the best.

Iowa City also had the fifth best pitching staff last season, led by
Eddie Wall and Harold Darr. Big Hal has been a Cy Young contender in the past, but his best days appear to be behind him. He can't be asked to carry a rotation any more, so it's up to Iowa find some support for him.

Iowa City may be based in a small market but thanks to the leagues shared TV revenues they can still spend big. In fact, player payroll has never been under 95 million. Currently, Iowa has 83.6 million under payroll and looks to be able to add about 20 million more.


Prediction 94 wins 1st in NL south.

Oklahoma City Twins (85-77)

OCT's system failed last year. Why do I mention that? Because it's the first time that is has, as OCT had made the playoffs in each of the 4 first seasons. The only other team to accomplish that feat in the NL was Chicago. OCT's model is to use its park (which is a pitchers park) to its advantage and put rangy outfielders in the corner spots and rely on pitching and defense to win games.

It's no surprise given OTC's style of play that the team has always struggled to score runs. OCT was, as you would expect, 3rd in run prevention and 5th worst in runs scored. So what's in store for OCT this year?

Well, the team plans on breaking in a new starting pitcher to an already very good rotation in
Lance Lara. The rotation will be led, as it was in the past two years, by Max Leary, who was a controversial signing back in season 4 but has performed as well as anyone could hope, putting in close to 500 innings of 2.82 era baseball.

On offence, OCT signed
Bo Sweeney to help and Bo at this point in his career is the prototypical OCT hitter, which is a hitter with not much power but a decent to good OBP.

Prediction 90 wins.

St. Louis Greys (84-78)

The big move last year that had all of baseball talking was the Greys' mid-season trade of
Fritz Rushford to Anaheim. His power was noticeably absent and there was talk that his range in center field had slipped, but there was still great demand for the three-time MVP and in the end the deal could help St. Louis as soon as the All-Star break this year, when super prospect and centerpiece of the Rushford deal Vladimir Pichardo could be ready to take shortstop over full time.

If Vlad lives up to the hype, the Greys infield of
Louie Dispenza, Daniel Thompson and whoever plays first base could be one of the best in the league. The team is young and just signed star pitcher John Carroll to a 5-year, $50 million deal, keeping the number one starter with the team until at least season 10. Combine that with a good young core of players and you have a team that should challenge for a playoff spot sooner rather than later.

Prediction 88 wins.

Monterrey Conquistadores (66-96)

Monterrey started a rebuilding project in season 3 and has been cutting payroll and acquiring prospects since. Clayton Mack is the lone offensive star and most of the pitching isn't fully developed yet, but it is young and it does have room to improve.

There is a odd mix between young players and older declining veterans. Monterrey is moving toward youth as it is ready and not rushing prospects, which is a good sign. When the younger hitters do arrive, Pablo Garces and Josh Damon should be holding down the rotation.

Prediction 62 wins

Thursday, February 7, 2008

State of the NL Prospects

The Following is a Breakdown of the Current State of Prospects for Each National League Team as well as a Ranking of the Systems at the end (Position-Expected Season to Reach Majors):

NL EAST

Chicago Jayhawks

  1. Stu Butler (2B-S7)-Well above average 2B in the future with both great O&D potential
  2. Tuck Stein (C-S8)-Future offensive stud with respectable defensive numbers
  3. Clayton Osborne(3b-S9)- Above average offense and defense at 3rd
  4. Charles Shibata(1B-S10)-Future Slugger at 1st Base. Great value in late 1st round
  5. Luis Estrada (LF-S9)-Destined to be an average LF that mashes LHP but struggles against RHP

New York Yankees

  1. Pascual Castro (3b-S8)-A future masher at 3rd though his defense will max out at average
  2. Jorge Marquez (RP-S9)-Will be solid setup-man in the future
  3. Kelvim Lyons(C-S7)-Nice mix of solidly above average offense and defense
  4. Jon Ray (RP-S7)-As talented as Marquez but low dur/stm kills his future value
  5. Louis Anderson (LF-S8)-The LF version of Kelvim Lyons

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

  1. Mark Lyons(LF-S7)- slightly above average offense and defense for position
  2. Jimmie Rios (2B-S9)-Average 2b in the future
  3. Pedro Rijo (C-S7)-Great offense but poor d somewhat limits value (Thanks for the heads up Fry)
  4. Norm Ellenwood (P-S6)-Iffy control but great splits and pitches
  5. Jimmy Uribe (RF-S7)-The HBD version of Michael Cuddyer in RF

Washington D.C. Bureaucrats

  1. Garrett Kline(P-S6)-Future Perennial CY Young Contender
  2. Al Iglesias(CF-S7)- One of the five best hitting prospects in the game
  3. Kirk Harrison(SP-S8)-Low Dur/Stm keeps him from being considered elite
  4. Goose Hayes(SP-S7)-Great pitcher that can be trotted out every 4 days
  5. Chili Easley(C-S11)-Future On base machine with well above average D at C

NL North

Milwaukee Twindyans

  1. Ray Payton (SP-S9)-Poor splits belie an otherwise solid SP prospect
  2. Luis Lopez(3B-S6)- Gold Glove caliber 3B with average O
  3. Cliff Spencer (RP-S9)-Good LR prospect
  4. Jacob Roberts (C-S10.)-Above average O tempered by below average AS/AA
  5. Hub Berry (CF-S9)-Below average defense dampens solid offensive potential

Kansas City Monarchs

  1. Tony Cela (RF-S6)-Future Silver Slugger with great D
  2. Vinny Matthews(SP-S7)- Only two plus pitches prevents him from joining elite status
  3. Aurelio Martin (SP-S7)-Slightly worse version of Vinny Matthews
  4. Kurt Anderson (RF-S9)-Poor Man’s Tony Cela
  5. Alexander Gibbs (1B-S6)-Meet Paul Kirby

Sioux Falls Gunslingers

  1. Rob Hutch (LR-S7)-One of the best MR prospects in the game
  2. Pablo Martin (LR-S7)-Not far behind Rob Hutch
  3. Crash Miller (Cl-S8)-Every rating is great but can he overcome lack of pitches?
  4. Scott Rhodes (1B-S6)-Well above average at offense and defense for position
  5. Billy Spiers (SP-S10)-Nothing fantastic but decent SP can be hard to find

Vancouver Vigilantes

  1. Turk Badilla (SS-S7)-Poor range doesn’t dim this slugger’s star
  2. Clyde Haynes (RP-S7)-Elite setup man potential
  3. Phil Hujimoto (RP-S9)-Excellent closer potential
  4. Tomas Moreno (SP-S7)-He ain’t thin but he is a solid SP prospect
  5. Geoffrey Borchard (RP-S6)-Poor stm but an above average prospect

NL South

Iowa City Comics

  1. Sandy Price (SP-S6)-Elite control but splits and pitches only above average
  2. Alvin Wilson (RP-S8)-The RP version of Sandy Price
  3. Phillip Zinter (SP-S9)-Iffy splits but five above average pitches
  4. Matt Robertson (3B-S7)-Average 3B prospect
  5. Miguel Jose (RF-S6)-Average RF prospect

Oklahoma City Twins

  1. Tony Hernandez (C-S6)-Elite prospect at position
  2. D’Angelo Pascual (SP-S7)-Great control and three very good pitches
  3. Jose Calvo (RF-S6)-Decent offense but supbar defense, especially for field
  4. Bartolo Vazquez (2B-S7)-Poor defense blunts otherwise promising offensive potential
  5. Vic Lopez (SP-S7)-Poor RH split and only 3 pitches make him a borderline starter

St. Louis Greys

  1. Vladimir Pichardo (SS-S7)-Elite prospect with silver slugger capabilities
  2. Edgardo Uribe (RP-S10)-Top notch RP prospect though he is being rushed
  3. Kris Dickey (2B-S6)-Great all around prospect for position
  4. Alan Lewis (SP-S7)-Above average prospect but limited ceiling
  5. William Stevenson (LF)-Average Bat in LF

Monterrey Conquistadores

  1. Max Moehler (SP/LR-S9)-Elite prospect except for a lack of one dominant pitch
  2. Fransisco Nunez (C-S8)-Elite prospect except for poor durability
  3. Lance Acosta (SU-S7)-Top notch set up man with no weakness
  4. Erubiel Benitez (SS-S9)-Well above average offense combined with good defense
  5. Daniel Brinkley (LR-S6)-Slight downgrade from Lance Acosta in terms of stuff

NL West


Anaheim Anteaters

  1. Haywood Gipson (2B-S7) -Best 2B prospect in the Game
  2. Bip Regan (CF-S9)-Great bat for position and even better defense
  3. Jason Jenkins (SP-S6)-Great control and splits but average pitches
  4. Stuart Stahl (1B/LF-S10)-Powerful bat but may not hack it in LF
  5. Wilfredo Trajano (SP-S8)-Could use better pitches but good splits and control limit downside greatly

Boise Mashers

  1. Christopher Cook (SP-S7)-Decent SP but needs C with good PC to reach potential
  2. Jim Kirk (3B-S9)-Shouldn’t play SS but great D and plus O at 3rd
  3. Virgil Santos (SS-10)-Gold glove defense and great O against LHP but shouldn’t play against RHP
  4. Victor Witt (SS/3B-S8)-Average O can be masked by very good defense at 3B
  5. Jose Manzanillo (C-S7)-Good bat probably doesn’t compensate for poor AS or PC

Colorado Springs Silver Stars

  1. Hootie Medina (RF-S7)-Elite Range for position but average offense
  2. Nigel Juden (C-S6)-Lesser version of Fransisco Nunez
  3. Joseph Hong (RP-S10)- Great deal in Int’l market at $3.0 mil. Solid prospect
  4. Steven Beck (SP-S9)-Great control but a lot of rating tied up in Dur/Stm
  5. T.J. Schneider (RP-S10)-Average prospect with poor Dur/Stm

Tacoma Downpour

  1. Victor Thomas (3B-S7)-All around great prospect
  2. Ramiro Prieto (LR-S7)-Elite reliever potential with solid ratings across the board
  3. Steven Piper (1B/LF-S6)-Great offensive prospect with + range at either position
  4. Gene Tessmer (SS-S9)- Plus offense mixed with adequate D at position
  5. Gerald Griffiths (2B-S6)-Fantastic offense helps compensate for poor D

NL Team Prospect Rankings

  1. Washington-Great Position and Pitching prospects in terms of top-end talent and depth
  2. Anaheim-Rushford trade removed them from contention for top spot and farm leans heavily towards offense
  3. Vancouver- Great Pitching Depth with elite top-end talent
  4. St. Louis- Pichardo/Uribe/Dickey form great base of talent to build from
  5. Tacoma-Needs to build up SP depth but otherwise solid job of stocking system
  6. Monterrey-Best prospects have limited playing time potential but solid depth
  7. Chicago-Great depth helps to overcome lack of top end talent
  8. New York- Similar to Chicago’s system but Rhodes trade depleted farm system
  9. Sioux Falls-Elite relief pitching prospects and solid offensive prospects
  10. Kansas City-Very good prospects but many have same profile in terms of strengths and weaknesses
  11. Milwaukee -Good depth in the system at hard to fill positions
  12. Oklahoma City-Very good prospects at top but very poor depth
  13. Iowa City-Solid pitching prospects but pretty thin system
  14. Tampa Bay-Good depth in system but best prospects max out at average
  15. Boise-Okay depth but no top end talent
  16. Colorado Springs-Decent depth but barren of top-end talent

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

AL East Preview: Season 6

New York Mets (105-57, AL East champion)

The Mets rode a solid offense and by far the best pitching staff in the league to a third consecutive 100-win season. Unlike the previous two, however, Red Wainhouse wasn't the biggest contributor to that pitching staff. The two-time Cy Young award winner was hurt in spring training and then wasn't as sharp as normal when he returned. Instead, everybody chipped in as all five rotation members posted ERAs between 3.63 and 4.28 and the bullpen quartet of Stretch Creek, Marshall Wathan, Preston Stinnett, and J.D. Jackson combined for a 2.62 ERA in 251 innings.

In fact, only one pitcher who tossed at least 50 innings for the Mets posted an ERA above 4.30. That's why they had a 3.79 team ERA and the next-best pitching staff was at 4.20.

On offense, 1B Richard Stocker was the star, but the Mets got solid contributions from every position on the field. The worst OPS for a full-time starter was .759, and five of the seven players who got 500-plus plate appearance posted at least an .825 OPS. The Mets also benefited from a midseason trade for Geoffrey Bates.

The bad news for the rest of the AL? Everybody who made a significant contribution for the Mets in season 5 is back for season 6. The good news? The clock may be ticking on the dominant run in New York. The change in training rules certainly won't help a team with an average age of 29.7 (oldest in the league). The payroll is also at $103 million and climbing, and there's no help coming from the farm for the next two or three seasons to replace anybody who gets too expensive.

Season 6 prediction: 100 wins, division title.

Boston Red Sox (89-73, wild card #1)

Since deciding to rebuild in season 1, the Red Sox have improved their win total every year. In season 5, as usual, it was all about the offense.

The Red Sox led the AL in both OBP (.360) and SLG (.526) to score a league-leading 1,074 runs. 1B Matt Governale won his second MVP award, but he certainly wasn't alone. Nash McCartin posted a 1.063 OPS, and three other hitters topped .930: DH Hector Soto, 3B Darron Jenkins and RF Vic Gardel.

The pitching was another story. Only three teams allowed more than Boston's 935 runs. Lee Hall led the starters with an unspectacular 4.60 ERA and Timo Griffin was the best reliever with a 4.03 ERA. In fact, only four Boston pitchers were able to keep their ERA below 5.00.

For the first time, the Red Sox will not be breaking any rookies into significant roles, and the season 5 Opening Day lineup returns intact. What makes that even scarier is that, if anything, the offense underperformed last season as two starters posted the worst seasons of their careers. The scary thing for the Red Sox is that the pitching may return intact as well, unless they make a trade or find a good fit in the free agent market.

The good news for the Red Sox is that they've been able to keep their payroll small (a paltry $44 million at the moment), giving them the ability to keep their farm system strong and the flexibility to be a player in free agency if and when they want to be.

Season 6 prediction: 94 wins, wild card.

Philadelphia Phenomenauts (71-91)

The Philadelphia franchise escaped the AL East's basement for the first time, topping 70 wins for the second season in a row. Philly was a bit below average on both offense and defense, scoring 814 runs (ninth in the league) and allowing 898 (11th).

Brent O'Donnell is already the star of Philly's offense, and the 23-year-old right fielder is only getting better. The Phenomenauts lost their next-best bat when they traded Jesus Reynoso, but they got a promising hitter in that deal in Houston Linden and they've already replaced Reynoso at first base by trading for Lee Roundtree. This may also be the season that hot prospect Cristobal Ramirez makes his big league debut, which could give the offense another shot in the arm.

Carl Gray was the bright spot on the pitching staff, as he made a huge improvement from his rookie season to go 11-9 with a 4.03 ERA. Other than Gray, however, Rigo Pineda, Phil Sanders and B.C. Plata were able to keep their ERA below 5.00. Unfortunately for Philly, there doesn't appear to be much pitching help coming until B.C. Mota is ready for the majors.

The good news for the Phenomenauts is that most of their big leaguers are young and still improving. They have the start of a solid team and given another season of development for their younger players, a couple savvy trades and a good free agent signing or two in seasons 6 and 7, they could make a push in season 7. Right now, however, there are still too many holes for them to jump into the top two in this division.

Season 6 prediction: 77 wins.

Pittsburgh Pug Dogs (68-94)

The Pug Dugs had a disastrous season, falling from 92 wins and a wild card spot to 68 wins and the AL East cellar. The pitching staff was solid, allowing 840 runs (eighth in the league), but the offense was terrible. Only one team scored fewer than Pittsburgh's 702 runs, and the Pug Dogs were lucky they outscored somebody since they were dead last in both OBP (.314) and SLG (.396).

Pittsburgh simply didn't have a single hitter in season 5 who was better than decent. Mikey Houston (.820 OPS) and Preston Grieve (.812 OPS) were the teams best hitters, and the Pug Dogs actually gave 340-plus at-bats to two players who had an OPS in the .530 range. The arrival of Charlie James should give the offense a boost, but the Pug Dogs should still be well below average in the run scoring department.

Victor Lawrence is the pride of the pitching staff, as the 24-year-old went 11-13 with a 4.43 ERA in his first full season in the bigs. Rex Byrd and a quality bullpen helped Pittsburgh finish with a team ERA below 5.00 (4.95). Unfortunately, the Pug Dogs have lost two of those relievers to free agency, so the pitching may take a bit of a hit. The Pug Dogs also have to replace Louie Bonilla, who posted a 3.96 ERA in 143 innings before getting traded to Anaheim.

Given a few shrewd moves, the Pug Dogs can definitely contend for third over the next couple seasons, but they just don't have the offensive firepower to hang with New York and Boston. They'll need to decide whether they want to see if they can just retool the current group or if they need to blow it up and start over.

Season 6 prediction: 60 wins following a midseason fire sale.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Best hitters in the world

Last week, we looked at the best pitchers in the world. Now, it's time to take a look at the best hitters in the history of Gleeman World. We'll be looking purely at offensive contributions, so positional considerations don't matter. If you're interested in the best all-around player in world history, it's pretty much a race between a couple of NL center fielders.

Anyway, here are the top dozen hitters over the first five seasons, from No. 12 to No. 1.

12. Brian Wilson doesn't have the power of some of the others on this list, but his career on-base percentage is third-best in the world. For his career, he's hit .327/.413/.524 with 108 homers, 447 runs and 404 RBIs in 743 games.

A two-time Silver Slugger at catcher, Wilson's best season came in season 1, when he hit .340/.438/.564 with 23 homers, 92 RBIs and 98 runs scored. What makes his production even more impressive is that he's spent three seasons playing in pitcher's parks and has never had a home park that helps hitters.

11. Charlie Stevens is similar to Wilson, but with a little more power and a slightly lower OBP. For his career, Stevens has hit .321/.407/.551 with 160 homers, 441 runs scored and 521 RBIs in 717 games. His advantage over Wilson would be bigger except for the fact that he's played four seasons in a hitter's park.

An All-Star and Silver Slugger at DH in season 1, Stevens actually had his best performance in season 5, when he hit .347/.444/.573 with 29 homers, 104 runs scored and 122 RBIs and set career highs in runs, hits, doubles, walks, batting average, OBP and OPS.

10. Trey Fonville has gotten better each full season he's been in the majors, culminating in his AL MVP runner-up campaign in season 5. For his career, Fonville has hit .299/.376/.597 with 210 homers, 517 runs scored and 635 RBIs in 676 games.

A three-time All-Star and one-time Silver Slugger, Fonville could be even higher on this list in another two or three seasons. As is, he's coming off three consecutive 50-plus homer, 115-plus run, 130-plus RBI seasons.

9. Toby Joseph hasn't been flashy, but he gets the job done. He's hit .317/.398/.589 with 210 homers, 572 runs scored and 657 RBIs in 776 games. He's never hit 50 homers, but he's topped 38 every season and has 130-plus RBIs in four of his five seasons.

The AL MVP and Silver Slugger at 1B in season 1 and a two-time All-Star, Joseph has actually been at his best the past three seasons, hitting at least .326 with an OBP of at least .404 and a SLG of at least .572 each season.

8. Bernard Rhodes has only shown big-time home run power once, but he's never collected fewer than 70 extra-base hits in a season and he's also never had a batting average below .325. For his career, Rhodes has hit .337/.404/.595 with 201 homers, 569 runs scored and 619 RBIs in 774 games.

A two-time All-Star, Rhodes had by far his best performance in season 5, when he posted the second-highest average in world history at .379. Along with that came a .453 OBP and .643 SLG. And he controlled the strike zone about as well as possible with 75 walks against only 35 strikeouts.

7. Rickey Dixon is something of an unsung star in Chicago, getting overshadowed by a certain center fielder and starting pitcher, but there's not questioning how important his bat is to the Jayhawks. In his career, he's hit .312/.409/.597 with 209 homers, 504 runs and 655 RBIs in 738 games.

A three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger, Dixon's seasons have ranged from very good (.923 OPS in season 3 and .929 in season 5) to excellent (1.071 OPS in season 4 and 1.096 in season 1). He's posted a batting average as high as .350 (season 4) and topped 50 homers once (51 in season 1).

6. Bryan Beckett is amazingly consistent on offense, posting an OPS between .987 and 1.044 every season and hitting 41-49 homers every year. For his career, the one-time MVP and four-time All-Star has hit .307/.396/.613 with 229 homers, 701 runs and 679 RBIs in 755 games.

If you're wondering why Beckett's ranked ahead of Dixon even though they have nearly the same career OPS and Dixon's is based on the high OBP, it's because Beckett contributes with his legs as well. In addition to being one of the most feared hitters in the game, he has 129 steals in 140 attempts for an 86.6 percent success rate.

5. Matt Governale holds the single-season record with 77 home runs and is one of three players with multiple MVP awards. Also a three-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger, he's hit .324/.398/.660 with 284 homers, 682 runs scored and 689 RBIs in 770 games.

Governale made his big league debut early in season 1 and had a good but not spectacular rookie season. Since then, he's hit .326 while averaging 63 homers, 148 runs and 153 RBIs, missing just three games in those four seasons.

4. Hector Santos doesn't have quite as good a peak season as Governale, but he's been much more consistent over the five seasons. For his career, he's hit .328/.398/.665 with 272 homers, 653 runs and 738 RBIs in 769 games.

A four-time All-Star and five-time Silver Slugger, Santos is without a doubt the best player who hasn't won an MVP award. His worst season was season 1, when he posted a 1.024 OPS with 44 homers 128 runs and 129 RBIs. He's hit at least 54 homers, driven in at least 144 runs and posted an OPS of at least 1.047 every season since.

3. Fritz Rushford is the only three-time MVP, and much of that is because he's the second-biggest on-base threat in the world. For his career, Rushford has hit .341/.442/.613 with 172 homers, 629 runs and 626 RBIs in 791 games, all while playing his entire career in pitcher's parks.

A three-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger, he might rank even higher on this list had he not fallen off a bit in season 5. He posted an OPS between 1.066 and 1.100 in each of his first four seasons before dropping to .939 in season 5. And while he hasn't shown nearly as much home run power as most of the other guys on this list, he does have four seasons with 40-plus doubles.

2. Edwin Hogan may be the best pure hitter in the world. A two-time MVP, three-time Silver Slugger and four-time All-Star, he's hit .364/.454/.654 with 186 homers, 542 runs and 629 RBIs in 655 games.

Hogan holds the league record with a .383 batting average in season 3, and he checks in at third and fourth on the list with .376 and .367 marks in seasons 2 and 4. His .364 career batting average is 21 points higher than Rushford in second place. There are just two reasons he's not No. 1 on this list. One, he's missed an average of 31 games a season. Two, he's played his entire career in the best hitter's park in the league.

1. Unlike Chipper Velandia, who has spent his entire career playing in a pretty severe pitcher's park and still managed to hit .329/.408/.685 with 274 homers, 591 runs and 694 RBIs in 739 games.

A four-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger, Velandia won his first MVP award in season 5 when he hit .334/.399/.759 with 72 homers, 135 runs and a league-record 181 RBIs. That wasn't even his best season, however, as he posted a ridiculous 1.193 OPS in season 3. Not only is he the only player to top the 1.150 mark twice, but Governale's the only other hitter who's even done it once.

As good as he's been, it's scary to think about what Velandia's career might look like if he played in a park that helps hitters.

AL South Preview: Season 6

Florida (Season 5: 93-69, AL South Champion)

With a strong Season 5 campaign, the Cottonmouths returned to their familiar spot atop the AL South Standings after seeing their record gradually decrease over the first four seasons. And given the infamously trade recluse ownership in Florida (it's been over 3 full seasons since Florida swung a trade of any significance), they did it the hard way - by staying within the organization.

With the exception of veteran LF Peter Li, who was signed at a bargain rate, all major contributions came from within. The story starts with the Season 5 AL Cy Young Ismael Molina, who pitched his way to a stunning 18-3 record, putting up a stingy .597 OPS against, 1.11 WHIP and 2.65 ERA over 197.1 innings in only his second full year in the bigs. Joining Ismael in his second season, and at the All-Star game, was 2nd year man, 24 year old SP Cy Kelly (15-8, 3.37, 237.2 IP) and 25 year old 2nd year C Ernest Crawford (.829 OPS, 4.14 CERA). And it doesn't end there: Sparky Rando (AA) is a can't-miss prospect who should be seeing the awful confines of Pro Player stadium in the next year or two. Florida is a going to be a powerhouse for several seasons, with only veteran All-Star RP Philip Byrd at risk of declining next year.

Season 6 Prediction: 98 wins, Division Champions

Nashville (Season 5: 73-89)

Season 5 was a bit of a rebound year for the Twang, as they improved from their franchise-worst 66 wins in Season 4, while managing to reduce their player payroll for a 5th straight season. Unfortunately, that's about the extent of the positives for the big club in Season 5, which went All-Star-less for the first time in their history, as former All-Stars like RP Jay Piazza, CF Del Garcia and 2B RJ Granados all got off to slow starts. Their record was also about 5 games better than expected, and their offense put up the 3rd fewest runs in the AL.

Not all is lost though. With the 4th overall pick in Season 5, Birdie Cornelius became the latest in a string of young pitchers to announce their happiness at being Twang's - he is a can't-miss stud well on his way to tearing up the bigs. Others young guns like Chilli Coles and Francis Green combine with the current young ML staff to form a very deep nucleus of starting pitching. The team also ended the year on a positive note, sweeping the final set of Player of the Week awards, with the honors going to 3B Esteban Manzanillo and SP Chad Neal. With that in mind, the next 2 years should be good ones in Nashville, although management will likely need to trade some veterans to help surround that young nucleus of pitching talent.

Season 6 Prediction: 78 wins

Richmond (Season 5: 60-102)

A 21-game drop in the W column from Season 4 to 5 represented pretty much a worst-case scenario for Roustabout fans. Falling from division champions to 33 games out of 1st in a single season is a hard blow to accept for any fan base. Perhaps by design, there was very little activity in Richmond this past offseason - only 1 ML player signed (a backup catcher) and no real trades of any consequence. Richmond did a fantastic job in the Rule V, stealing Trenidad Silva with the 19th pick (!) And with a middle round draft pick, Richmond did fairly well, selecting Slugging 1B Benito Alvarez.

Looking at the Richmond Depth Chart we see that most of it's high potential talent is already in the bigs suggesting that the team won't make any big moves upward in the standings for the next few years. The team will improve some though, with the aforementioned Silva and Humerto Rivera (who should be back for the start of Season 6) under the age of 23 and well below their projected ceilings still. Add that with some decent younger talent in the low minors, and management's good showings in the drafts, and it's reasonable to expect that this will represent the low point for the Richmond franchise for years to come.

Season 5 Prediction: 68 wins

San Antonio (Season 5: 54-108)

With 54 wins, the Sting were once again the worst team in the AL, and were tied for the worst record in the majors. With the first overall pick for a third consecutive year in Season 6, it's hard to avoid questioning the direction the team has taken since it's high water mark of 83 wins in Season 1. Their first overall picks in both the Rule 4 and 5 drafts left much to be desired, given other players available later on in both drafts. Perhaps predictably, the team was entirely shut-out of post-season awards, without a single candidate in any section at the ML level.

Season 6 doesn't hold much more promise for the Sting faithful either. While there are a few youngsters at the ML level, many of the recent draft picks are still several seasons away. They should once again be competing for last place overall.

Season 6 Prediction: 50 wins, worst record in the majors

Sunday, February 3, 2008

NL North Preview: Season 6

Milwaukee Twindyans Season 5 record- 102-60 NL North Champs.

Milwaukee has never finished lower than 2nd in the NL North and has made the playoffs in 4 of the 5 seasons. Lead by arguably, top players at their positions in Hector Santos and Vic Alfonzo Milwaukee made it to World Series this year, which was their second appearance in franchise history. Milwaukee's 2 biggest stars maybe old but don't think that the Twindyans are an old team Dennis Nelson, Pete Skinner, Pat Bowen, Neil Byrne and Ted Simpson will all start season 6 25 or younger. It seems that Milwaukee took a step back in season 4 to take a step forward into the future and the future looks bright.

Milwaukee has no real weaknesses, an upgrade at third base and an additional bullpen arm wouldn't hurt but the need is not that pressing. Look for
the Twindyans to compete for a first round bye and a World Series appearance again next season.

Prediction 97-65

Kansas City Monarchs Season 5 record 81-81 second in NL North.

What word best describes the Kansas City franchise? Mediocre is probably best. The franchise has never won more than 87 games or lost more than 88. An off-season trade for Bud Jones improved the offensive last year and rookie Tony Cela should improve it further next year but if the Monarchs want to make a playoff run the guys that toe the rubber will have to improve. In season 4 the Monarchs had a top 5 pitching staff and despite returning almost every pitcher from that staff the Monarchs ranked in the middle of the pack this season. Most notably Troy Roberts went from great to bad to injured although he'll be back in time for next season some within the organization question whether he'll ever be the pitcher he was in season 3 and 4 again.

The Monarchs could use an upgrade at first base, SS and they will also need to add at least 4 pitchers between the rotation and bullpen if they want to compete for a playoff spot. Prediction 84-78.

Sioux Falls Gunslingers Season 5 record 77-85 3rd in the NL North.


Sioux Falls won the division in last season but fell back to 3rd in season 5. Their pitching was poor and the offence wasn't any better. The team allowed 857 runs and only scored 736 for an expected winning percentage .428, Sioux Falls should have been worse than they were. On the bright side there were a couple of starters gave Sioux Falls reason for hope Joey Mitchell and Derek Boone had good seasons at age 30. On offense Carlos Carreras, Tomas Carrasco, Dennis James and of course Chris Kirkland lead the way other than these four there isn't a position that couldn't use a upgrade for Sioux Falls.

Sioux Falls doesn't seem to to have many top prospects close to the majors so I'm sure the question will be asked, does Souix Falls need to rebuild or is it just a couple players away from jumping near the top of the division?
Prediction 74-88

Vancouver Vigilantes
Season 5 record 62-100 4th in the NL North

The ownership in Vancouver has been urging fans to "Get Vigilant" for a couple seasons now but frankly there hasn't been much to look forward to the last 3 years with 98, 94 and 100 losses in that time. Star prospect Turk Badilla is still a couple years away and last years failure to sign Howard Palmer, a player who would have brought star potential to Vancouver, was not what this franchise needed. Vancouver has the 4th pick in this years draft and has to make signing this pick a top priority. Vancouver does have some pieces to build around in Douglas Coleridge, Billy Ray Perry, Paul Wilson, Brandon Sheffield and Darrin Murphy. But none are really stars and most are really complementary players.

Vancouver was 2nd worst in the league in runs allowed and 6th worst in runs scored so there is no where to go but up. The rebuilding project will likely last into season 8 or 9 with no end in sight. It will take some creative thinking and bold management to compete before then. Prediction 65-97.