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Season 17 Record: 101-61, Division Champions, lost to the Milwaukee Twindyans in the NLCS
EXP W%: .595 (projected out to 96-66 over 162 games)
Notable acquisitions: P Jim Gonzalez, P Quilvio Rodriguez, P Sparky Rando, P Wilfredo Trajano, SS Phillip Combs, SS Corey Boehringer
Notable departures: SS Glenallen Simontacchi, P Bartolo Estrada, P Orber Benitez, P Stuart Burnett, P Ted LeCroy (pending, via trade with Washington)
The Jayhawks once again look like the class of the NL East, though they look less formidable than in years past. First, the departure of Glenallen Simontacchi leaves the Jayhawks without a legitimate starting SS. New acquisitions Phillip Combs and Corey Boehringer aren't awful hitters, and incumbent Maximo Bailey can pick it, but each of them profiles better as a backup. Replicating Simontacchi's S17 performance shouldn't be too difficult; his .638 OPS last season was the second worst of his career (the worst, a .630 OPS back in S13, was at least partially a product of playing in Tacoma's pitcher-friendly ballpark), and his defense is easily worse than any of Chicago's current options. On the pitching side, it'll be far tougher to duplicate the performance of Estrada, Benitez, and Burnett; the trio combined for over 430 IP and an ERA ~ 3.60. The Jayhawks decided to fill the holes with quantity; bringing in Rodriguez, Gonzalez (a longtime Jayhawk), Rando, and Trajano ensures that they'll have arms to fill in for the departed. The problem is that they're simply not as good. Complicating matters is the squad's heavy reliance on ace Marty Melhuse, who's immensely talented but always one pitch away from ending up on the surgeon's table. There's not much help left in the farm system, either, so an injury to any of their ML pitchers will be a challenge to replace. The 'Hawks still have the most talented team in the division, but there's a lot that can go wrong.
Prediction: 94-68, NL East Champions
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Season 17 Record: 87-75, Wildcard, lost to the Milwaukee Twindyans in the NLDS
EXP W%: .561 (91-71)
Notable acquisitions: 1B Walt Lambert (OK, he was technically a Yankee last year, but only for 22 games)
Notable departures: P Birdie Cornelius, CF Felipe Cordero
While they've made the playoffs in three straight seasons, one could label the Yankees' revival as a bit of a disappointment, finishing their past three seasons with 87, 86, and 87 wins. The Yankees have traditionally built their teams around strong pitching (Haywood Towers, Brian Murata, Andres Silva, Jay Cosby, etc). However, faced with the dilemma of only being able to re-sign one of their two departing stars, GM goosegoslin elected to spurn Cornelius, instead offering Lambert a generous 5 year, $110MM contract. Even with his inclusion, it's still a stretch to call this a great lineup; Lambert is a very good hitter, but no one would mistake him for an elite talent. Still, they should score their share of runs. Unfortunately, they might end up giving back most, if not all of their gains in run prevention. The Yankees have a plethora of middling 5th starter options* sitting in AAA right now, but nothing approximating a replacement for one of the best pitchers in the league. Adding Lambert makes the offense better, but losing Cornelius makes the offseason a wash at best for the S18 fortunes of the Yankees. Expect them to tread water.
*As an aside, does any team churn out as many of these guys as the Yankees? Dewayne Christians, Juan Leon, Rico Garces, Slash Ardoin, Hod Kroon...
EDIT: I forgot that P David Calderon was injured for all of S17. Having Adams at SS will help, too, although I don't really think he's all that great. I'll boost the team from 86 wins to 90.
Prediction: 90-72, 2nd place (WC possible? I haven't assessed the NL West; I think at least one WC will come from there)
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Season 17 Record: 79-83, 3rd place
EXP W%: .500 (81-81)
Notable acquisitions: P Norm Ellenwood
Notable departures: LF Marino Reyes, 3B/OF Victor Thomas, P Roosevelt Anderson, SS Santiago Chantres
After spending most of last season in contention, the Nard Doggs faded badly down the stretch, finishing below .500 and notching a 4th consecutive season of mediocrity. Scranton could be looking at a 5th; the Nard Doggs did little to improve the team this season, choosing instead to shed some payroll and play for the future. GM schnoogens aggressively shopped the expensive Marino Reyes, dumping $15MM of his $20MM on the Oklahoma City Twins. He then let Thomas, Anderson, and Chantres walk, filling in holes through internal promotions and the lone signing of starter Norm Ellenwood. He'll join a solid but thoroughly unexciting rotation, headed by appropriately named workhorse Mule Hardy. Star reliever Sammy Gonzalez is outstanding, but the rest of the pen is shaky. Calvin Faulk and Jake Henry are excellent players, and Jacob Sauer can hit righties, but they don't have much of a supporting cast surrounding them; additionally, aside from the two aforementioned stars, none of the starters penciled to play on Opening Day are good defensively, either. No, Scranton shouldn't be awful, but the Nard Doggs have clearly taken a step backwards.
Prediction: 71-91, 3rd place
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Season 17 Record: 67-95, 4th place
EXP W%: .397 (64-98)
Notable acquisitions: P Toby LeCroy (pending, via trade with Chicago), P Del Martin, C Willie Hogan
Notable departures: P Gerard Tomlinson, P Howard Murphy, LF Jim Brown
Once the premier franchise of the National League, the Bureaucrats blew it all up last season. It was just as ugly as expected. Year 2 of the rebuild likely won't be any better. Most notable was the departure of veteran pitcher Gerard Tomlinson. Prodigal son Toby LeCroy and free agent Del Martin will help, but probably not enough, and the offense is miserable. Face of the franchise Al Iglesias is going to be a lonely, lonely man.
The big question isn't whether this team will contend, but whether they'll avoid stinking enough to prevent ownership from blowing it all up and firing the mastermind behind the 4-time champions, themoff02. It's certainly something worth following.
Prediction: 60-102, 4th place
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