Here is a list of win requirements this season for teams that won fewer than 75 games last season:
Minnesota: 60
Rochester: 53
Austin: 64
Trenton: 55
Cheyenne: 52
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Friday, August 21, 2009
NL South preview: Season 12
St. Louis Greys (97-65, NL South champions)
After the most exciting offseason in Greys history, St. Louis was back to its typical, inactive ways this offseason. The biggest loss was RP Lawrence Edwards and the Greys didn't add anybody of consequence.
Matt Governale returns as the key to the offense after an excellent first season in the NL, but he'll need help if St. Louis is going to improve on last season's 10th-place showing in runs scored.
Bronson Ritz is a good hitter, although he was probably over his head last season, and Vladimir Pichardo and Slim Gutierrez are both solid, but the rest of the lineup is pretty mediocre.
Fortunately for St. Louis, it returns most of the pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs in the NL last season. The key, obviously, is five-time Cy Young winner (including the last four) John Carroll.
He's joined in the rotation by solid, if unspectacular, starters Howie Dalesandro, Willis Smith and Roy Gold, with David Alvarado as a weak fifth starter.
The bullpen is led by the fine trio of Nate Pedersen, Don Parkers and Edgardo Uribe.
Prediction: 94-68, NL South champions
Oklahoma City Twins (81-81)
The Twins overachieved in Season 11, and GM garlogic realizes that his team isn't ready to contend despite what seems like steady improvement from Season 9 to Season 11. As a result, he got rid of several players in the offseason, most notably 19-game winner Lance Lara and solid innings-eater D'Angelo Pascual.
Oklahoma City finished last in the NL with 640 runs scored and it looks like offense will be a problem again. Kirk Titan is the best returning player who received at least 300 at-bats and he'll get an expanded role. Kevin North will also get a full-time role after a brutal cup of coffee in the majors last season.
Lariel Lee and Ray Lyons are the only other returning position players who posted an OPS above .620 last season.
Adrian Henderson, Vic Lopez and Bobby Metzger are the three returning starters and they'll be joined by rookie Ben Weston and an unknown fifth starter. The bullpen is led by Moe Farley, Jesus Santos and Henry Gilmore.
Prediction: 65-97
Monterrey Conquistadores (75-87)
After two nice seasons in Atlanta, the franchise moved to Monterrey and has had trouble getting anything going, topping out at 85 wins in Season 10. After a step back in Season 11, the Conquistadores hope to start making progress toward a return to the playoffs.
Monterrey jettisoned four players this offseason who had significant roles with the team last season, none of them particularly good: SP Carl Gray, SP Bum Marte, 3B Pedro Pulido and LF Victor Bieser, plus a couple relievers who also struggled.
Monterrey didn't bring in a whole lot of new talent in the offseason, signing Houston Linden to replace Pulido at third and Richard Delaney to replace one of the departed relievers. Neither of them is great, but they should at least be able to do what the players they're replacing did.
The biggest upgrades to the team this season are expected to come from the promotion of a couple prospects after 20 games.
Taylor Turner will replace Bieser in left field and should be a massive improvement. Combined with Francisco Nunez (about half the time), Ted Simpson and Dennis Nelson (who should bounce back from a down season), Taylor will give Monterrey an imposing heart of the order.
The other call-up will be Ismael Colome, who should be an improvement over Gray and will join Max Moehler to provide a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation.
Unfortunately, the back of the rotation isn't very good with Loaiza and Otis Upshaw and the bullpen is mediocre at best.
Prediction: 83-79
Iowa City Comics (63-99)
Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Comics lost two players who had full-time roles in Season 11: 2B Alejandro Javier and SP Joe Sanders. Neither is a star, but both are solid players and will be missed by a team just looking to win at least 62 games.
The Comics brought in 3B Darron Jenkins and SP William Cheng, and while both are a bit past their prime, they should be able to contribute.
Future Hall of Famer Chipper Velandia remains as a reminder of how good the franchise used to be, but there's just not very much talent around him.
It's going to be a tense season in Iowa City as the win rule looms large. Fortunately, the Comics underperformed a bit last season. The team had the run differential of a 70-win team, so even if the talent level is lower this season, there should be something of a buffer.
Prediction: 65-97
After the most exciting offseason in Greys history, St. Louis was back to its typical, inactive ways this offseason. The biggest loss was RP Lawrence Edwards and the Greys didn't add anybody of consequence.
Matt Governale returns as the key to the offense after an excellent first season in the NL, but he'll need help if St. Louis is going to improve on last season's 10th-place showing in runs scored.
Bronson Ritz is a good hitter, although he was probably over his head last season, and Vladimir Pichardo and Slim Gutierrez are both solid, but the rest of the lineup is pretty mediocre.
Fortunately for St. Louis, it returns most of the pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs in the NL last season. The key, obviously, is five-time Cy Young winner (including the last four) John Carroll.
He's joined in the rotation by solid, if unspectacular, starters Howie Dalesandro, Willis Smith and Roy Gold, with David Alvarado as a weak fifth starter.
The bullpen is led by the fine trio of Nate Pedersen, Don Parkers and Edgardo Uribe.
Prediction: 94-68, NL South champions
Oklahoma City Twins (81-81)
The Twins overachieved in Season 11, and GM garlogic realizes that his team isn't ready to contend despite what seems like steady improvement from Season 9 to Season 11. As a result, he got rid of several players in the offseason, most notably 19-game winner Lance Lara and solid innings-eater D'Angelo Pascual.
Oklahoma City finished last in the NL with 640 runs scored and it looks like offense will be a problem again. Kirk Titan is the best returning player who received at least 300 at-bats and he'll get an expanded role. Kevin North will also get a full-time role after a brutal cup of coffee in the majors last season.
Lariel Lee and Ray Lyons are the only other returning position players who posted an OPS above .620 last season.
Adrian Henderson, Vic Lopez and Bobby Metzger are the three returning starters and they'll be joined by rookie Ben Weston and an unknown fifth starter. The bullpen is led by Moe Farley, Jesus Santos and Henry Gilmore.
Prediction: 65-97
Monterrey Conquistadores (75-87)
After two nice seasons in Atlanta, the franchise moved to Monterrey and has had trouble getting anything going, topping out at 85 wins in Season 10. After a step back in Season 11, the Conquistadores hope to start making progress toward a return to the playoffs.
Monterrey jettisoned four players this offseason who had significant roles with the team last season, none of them particularly good: SP Carl Gray, SP Bum Marte, 3B Pedro Pulido and LF Victor Bieser, plus a couple relievers who also struggled.
Monterrey didn't bring in a whole lot of new talent in the offseason, signing Houston Linden to replace Pulido at third and Richard Delaney to replace one of the departed relievers. Neither of them is great, but they should at least be able to do what the players they're replacing did.
The biggest upgrades to the team this season are expected to come from the promotion of a couple prospects after 20 games.
Taylor Turner will replace Bieser in left field and should be a massive improvement. Combined with Francisco Nunez (about half the time), Ted Simpson and Dennis Nelson (who should bounce back from a down season), Taylor will give Monterrey an imposing heart of the order.
The other call-up will be Ismael Colome, who should be an improvement over Gray and will join Max Moehler to provide a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation.
Unfortunately, the back of the rotation isn't very good with Loaiza and Otis Upshaw and the bullpen is mediocre at best.
Prediction: 83-79
Iowa City Comics (63-99)
Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Comics lost two players who had full-time roles in Season 11: 2B Alejandro Javier and SP Joe Sanders. Neither is a star, but both are solid players and will be missed by a team just looking to win at least 62 games.
The Comics brought in 3B Darron Jenkins and SP William Cheng, and while both are a bit past their prime, they should be able to contribute.
Future Hall of Famer Chipper Velandia remains as a reminder of how good the franchise used to be, but there's just not very much talent around him.
It's going to be a tense season in Iowa City as the win rule looms large. Fortunately, the Comics underperformed a bit last season. The team had the run differential of a 70-win team, so even if the talent level is lower this season, there should be something of a buffer.
Prediction: 65-97
Thursday, August 20, 2009
NL East Season 12 Preview
This has to be the most boring preview ever.
Bureaucrats, Jayhawks, Yankees, Frymaster.
Done.
There's at least a 95% chance it winds up that way, which is ordinarily remarkable I suppose, but there are just too many gaps between each team over 162 games for anything else to happen.
But fine, a preview is a preview:
Washington, World Series back to back champions
Want the bad news right away? Ok: Dave Worrell. The Bureaucrats farm system pipeline is not yet done producing talent, as Season 8's first round draft pick figures to hit the big league roster 20 games into the season. A trade for Larry Piatt is probably the next most significant improvement if I'd have to guess. So it's not all terrible for the rest of the league.
On the positive side (for the rest of the league of course), due to some unconscious contracts handed out to SS's during a particularly aggressive run on FA SS's (Oscar Sugawara, welcome to 26mm/4 years. 32 year old Cesar Piedra? Welcome to over 9mm a year for 3 years. Scot F'ing Busby, your 8.2 mm contract is right over here), Washington wound up having to spend it's extra payroll locking up Dale Smart and his 83 glove. The same could be said for Derek Boone, I'm certainly glad that money is being spent on these two rather than on a $20 million prospect budget. Small victories....
Prediction: 108 wins, Division Champs, no 3-peat
Chicago Jayhawks
Last year saw the arrival of Ace prospect Juan Arroyo, Ace Closer Jimmie Estrella and the poor man's Mark Texeira: Mike Jarvis. This season Chitown has far less to look forward to from the farm, perhaps Fernando Cruz, but not much more behind him I'm guessing.
So in turn, GM thorku did what GM thorku's do: Wheel & Deal. First stop? Back up the Brinks truck and make a substantial deposit in the Artistic Capital of the World: Florence, Italy. Bongiorno Billy Ray Perry! Throw in a solid innings eater in Phil Sanders, very solid 2B Daryl Morgan & the very rotting and decaying smelly corpse of Bryan Beckett and you have an improved squad without a doubt. Just not enough to win the division unfortunately.
Prediction: 2nd spot in the NL East, 5th seed overall. NL Pennant a real possibility.
NY Yankees
On the heels of it's franchises two worst seasons ever, GM goosegoslin is getting excited once more about big league baseball in NY. Presumably this means a move above the .500 line, and further distance between the team that drafted 2nd overall last year; the Yankees are on the slow road back to respectability.
Unfortunately, and this will surprise precisely no one, I'm actually having trouble figuring out who the members of the "Fab Five" are exactly (GM goose made reference to a quintet getting called up at game 20). Future SS Luis Alvarez is presumably not on the list (he has yet to have a single AAA AB), and David "The Beast" Calderon has already been told he'll be at AAA as well.
Jared Kraemer is certainly on the list, although his .929 MiL career OPS, while solid, won't make many All-Star games. LF Pablo Merced, now in his 7th year as a professional is presumably a lock due to sheer age, but 36 power for a CO leaves it's doubts that he's worthy of being called an improvement. I'm guessing Al Sierra is on the list, but 52 PC catchers who's hitting ratings top out at 76/77 are somewhat dime a dozen in WIS. I'm guessing RP Junior Navarro makes the list with his 76 control and 73/63 splits? Perhaps Happy Magadan and his 69/59 splits?
I'm not sure, and in the end don't see too much happening here - .500 seems like a high end projection to me, but I'll go with it out of respect for the gooser's knack for getting the most out of the least.
Prediction: 3rd place in the NL East, 81-81 record.
Frymaster (Still refuse to acknowledge San Juan/Tampa. I say fry should move once more just for fun)
Well, the man is still here, give him that much credit at very least. After winning 124, 128 and 130 games over 2 running seasons for the past 4 years, the Frymaster has pretty much pushed the limits of suck. If there was a Greg Maddux "painting the corners" award for GM's, fry would sweep in destructive fashion.
This year's pile of suck? May I interest you in Ben Everett at 2x $2.5 million? If I said I had Cristian Daly at 2x $1.75 million, would that be something you might be interested in? Francis Green for 2@2.665 mill? Darryl Walker, $2.87mm for 2 years? Veritable ACE Javy James went for a relatively good value by comparison: 8 million total, spread out over 2 years. Even lightning rod of controversy Calvin Chen scored himself a sweet $3.4mm in guaranteed money over the next 2 years.
And with that, my head hurts.
Prediction: Let's not jinx it...
Bureaucrats, Jayhawks, Yankees, Frymaster.
Done.
There's at least a 95% chance it winds up that way, which is ordinarily remarkable I suppose, but there are just too many gaps between each team over 162 games for anything else to happen.
But fine, a preview is a preview:
Washington, World Series back to back champions
Want the bad news right away? Ok: Dave Worrell. The Bureaucrats farm system pipeline is not yet done producing talent, as Season 8's first round draft pick figures to hit the big league roster 20 games into the season. A trade for Larry Piatt is probably the next most significant improvement if I'd have to guess. So it's not all terrible for the rest of the league.
On the positive side (for the rest of the league of course), due to some unconscious contracts handed out to SS's during a particularly aggressive run on FA SS's (Oscar Sugawara, welcome to 26mm/4 years. 32 year old Cesar Piedra? Welcome to over 9mm a year for 3 years. Scot F'ing Busby, your 8.2 mm contract is right over here), Washington wound up having to spend it's extra payroll locking up Dale Smart and his 83 glove. The same could be said for Derek Boone, I'm certainly glad that money is being spent on these two rather than on a $20 million prospect budget. Small victories....
Prediction: 108 wins, Division Champs, no 3-peat
Chicago Jayhawks
Last year saw the arrival of Ace prospect Juan Arroyo, Ace Closer Jimmie Estrella and the poor man's Mark Texeira: Mike Jarvis. This season Chitown has far less to look forward to from the farm, perhaps Fernando Cruz, but not much more behind him I'm guessing.
So in turn, GM thorku did what GM thorku's do: Wheel & Deal. First stop? Back up the Brinks truck and make a substantial deposit in the Artistic Capital of the World: Florence, Italy. Bongiorno Billy Ray Perry! Throw in a solid innings eater in Phil Sanders, very solid 2B Daryl Morgan & the very rotting and decaying smelly corpse of Bryan Beckett and you have an improved squad without a doubt. Just not enough to win the division unfortunately.
Prediction: 2nd spot in the NL East, 5th seed overall. NL Pennant a real possibility.
NY Yankees
On the heels of it's franchises two worst seasons ever, GM goosegoslin is getting excited once more about big league baseball in NY. Presumably this means a move above the .500 line, and further distance between the team that drafted 2nd overall last year; the Yankees are on the slow road back to respectability.
Unfortunately, and this will surprise precisely no one, I'm actually having trouble figuring out who the members of the "Fab Five" are exactly (GM goose made reference to a quintet getting called up at game 20). Future SS Luis Alvarez is presumably not on the list (he has yet to have a single AAA AB), and David "The Beast" Calderon has already been told he'll be at AAA as well.
Jared Kraemer is certainly on the list, although his .929 MiL career OPS, while solid, won't make many All-Star games. LF Pablo Merced, now in his 7th year as a professional is presumably a lock due to sheer age, but 36 power for a CO leaves it's doubts that he's worthy of being called an improvement. I'm guessing Al Sierra is on the list, but 52 PC catchers who's hitting ratings top out at 76/77 are somewhat dime a dozen in WIS. I'm guessing RP Junior Navarro makes the list with his 76 control and 73/63 splits? Perhaps Happy Magadan and his 69/59 splits?
I'm not sure, and in the end don't see too much happening here - .500 seems like a high end projection to me, but I'll go with it out of respect for the gooser's knack for getting the most out of the least.
Prediction: 3rd place in the NL East, 81-81 record.
Frymaster (Still refuse to acknowledge San Juan/Tampa. I say fry should move once more just for fun)
Well, the man is still here, give him that much credit at very least. After winning 124, 128 and 130 games over 2 running seasons for the past 4 years, the Frymaster has pretty much pushed the limits of suck. If there was a Greg Maddux "painting the corners" award for GM's, fry would sweep in destructive fashion.
This year's pile of suck? May I interest you in Ben Everett at 2x $2.5 million? If I said I had Cristian Daly at 2x $1.75 million, would that be something you might be interested in? Francis Green for 2@2.665 mill? Darryl Walker, $2.87mm for 2 years? Veritable ACE Javy James went for a relatively good value by comparison: 8 million total, spread out over 2 years. Even lightning rod of controversy Calvin Chen scored himself a sweet $3.4mm in guaranteed money over the next 2 years.
And with that, my head hurts.
Prediction: Let's not jinx it...
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Season 12 win requirements
Here are the win totals needed in Season 12 for the franchises that didn't win at least 75 games in Season 11.
Pittsburgh - 55
Boston - 59
Florida - 59
San Antonio - 62
Cheyenne - 56
Milwaukee - 61
San Juan - 60
Iowa City - 62
Boise - 51
Pittsburgh - 55
Boston - 59
Florida - 59
San Antonio - 62
Cheyenne - 56
Milwaukee - 61
San Juan - 60
Iowa City - 62
Boise - 51
Friday, May 22, 2009
Season 11 win requirements
Here are number of wins needed this season to stay in the league for teams that won less than 75 games in Season 10:
Pittsburgh: 56
Cheyenne: 61
Los Angeles: 64
Sioux Falls: 53
Milwaukee: 56
San Juan: 60
N.Y. Yankees: 62
Iowa City: 58
Salem: 55
Pittsburgh: 56
Cheyenne: 61
Los Angeles: 64
Sioux Falls: 53
Milwaukee: 56
San Juan: 60
N.Y. Yankees: 62
Iowa City: 58
Salem: 55
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
AL North Preview: Season 11
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The defending division champs decided to keep as much of their pitching staff as possible intact; the only turnover involved low-leverage reliever Douglas Johns replacing little-used Glen Leon. On the flip side, nealphd did bring in a few new position players, including 3B Houston Linden, C Tony Hernandez, and recent call-up Norm Webster. Linden will likely be an everyday player, while Hernandez and Webster will share duties with incumbents Tuck Stein and Luis Uribe, respectively. This year's team, as is, looks likely to suffer from the same pitfalls as last year's team; Uribe is a butcher at SS, the bullpen doesn't have much depth after Sandy Bryant, and the lineup is merely decent. The rotation is still as good as any in baseball, though. Last year's performance wasn't a fluke; look for them to run away with the title of AL's best team this year.
Prediction: 108-54, Division champs
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The Fatboys were hit as hard as any one team by free agency; four of their departing players combined for 15 All-Star game appearances (Stewart, Crespo, Washington, Fonville). Minnesota also dealt away starting pitchers Norm Ellenwood and Lance Lara, although the losses were somewhat mitigated by adding capable arms Dennis Cohen and Billy Ray Perry. However, that appears to be at least a small net loss, and even the better starters on the roster all have some question marks (Is Harrison better than last year? Will Becker rebound from last year's injury? Does Leary still "have it" at 40 years old?). The Fatboys also dealt away SS Guy Wise, although the organizational depth at the position borders on ludicrous. The bullpen features the three-headed monster of Croushore, Zhou, and Gandarilla; both Croushore and Gandarilla are capable of topping 100 innings of quality relief per season, and Zhou ranks among the better closers in the league. The lineup is still plenty dangerous, although expecting Keeler to repeat last season's performance would be unreasonable under any circumstances. The Fatboys still have a good team, but temper your expectations; this might be the weakest team Minny's fielded in a while.
Prediction: 90-72, Wildcard
*EDIT: Quote taken from Gleeman off the world chat: "I'm not even kidding. Read the AL North preview (which is well done, generally) and if you agree with the wins prediction for the Fatboys, name a number. I'll bet $10,000, if someone wants. Seriously."
Not that I'm completely disagreeing with him (it does feel a bit low, on second thought), but I felt I had to post this so I could look back on it at the end of the season. :-)
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After a tumultuous offseason that included a controversial vetoed trade, new GM morneau33hr decided to keep the core of the team intact. The problem is, many of the complementary pieces appear to be gone, and no one was signed to replace them. Relievers Kordell Bordick, Ross Livingstone, and Brian Murata were allowed to walk, as were catchers Derek Page and Vic Hardtke and outfielder Hector Hernandez. The Rocks signed OF Luis Cairo to replace Hernandez, but the loss of Page and Hardtke leaves incumbent Rich Beech alone to hit against RHP, which probably isn't the best idea, even considering his defense. Also, the bullpen, once a strength, looks awfully shaky behind Brian Hunt. There are enough stars here to call this a playoff-caliber team, but the glaring holes in the margins of Cleveland's roster makes them a bit of a tough read.
Prediction: 83-79, 3rd place, no playoffs
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The Tumbleweeds patched up one of their team's biggest holes this offseason, signing C Neil Byrne to replace all-glove C Humberto Martinez and the excrable Miguel Alou. Adding Luis Cervantes to replace Ken James is less of an upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless. However, the rest of last year's thoroughly mediocre team is back at it again, with the same so-so pitching staff to complement what should be a capable, but forgettable lineup. The Tumbleweeds are in an awkward position: they're too good to be considered a rebuilding team, but aren't really contenders in the AL's toughest division. It doesn't appear that will change this season.
Prediction: 79-83, 4th place
NL North preview: Season 11
Vancouver Vigilantes (93-69, NL North champs)
Vancouver lost half-season rental Eugene Ramirez to free agency, but that may not be as big a loss as expected. The Vigilantes went out and signed Ruben Crespo to replace him. While Crespo's not quite as good as Ramirez, he did post a 3.99 ERA in an AL hitters' park last season, while pitching 311 innings. Crespo should be able to improve upon the production Vancouver got from Ramirez and Coco Ferrell last season (a combined 3.89 ERA in 236 innings).
Vancouver's other big loss was RF Douglas Coleridge. To replace his bat, they traded for 3B Darron Jenkins and will move Brandon Sheffield to RF.
Jenkins should help an offense that finished third in the NL in runs scored (894) last season, as he joins 2B Bryan Beckett, Sheffield, CF Joseph Wang, SS Turk Badilla and LF Mark Sakamoto in a balanced lineup. The only weak spot is 1B, where the Vigilantes will try to get by with Pedro Marin.
Crespo leads a rotation that includes Paul Wilson and a bunch of question marks. Pat Bowen and Tomas Moreno have durability issues. Juan Gonzales has stamina issues. And Alfonso Aquino and Fred Torres have issues of quality.
The bullpen will rely heavily on Shigetoshi Itou and Clyde Haynes.
When you factor in the age-related declines of Beckett and Gonzales, Vancouver probably only improved slightly in the offseason. The good news for Vigilantes fans is that nobody else in the division did enough to make up the gap.
Prediction: 94-68, first place by at least 10 games
Ottawa Otters (79-83)
Ottawa didn't lose any critical players, saying goodbye to Rickey Dixon and Octavio Suarez and good riddance to Andy Weaver and Cody Woods. Unfortunately, the Otters didn't add any critical players either, as signing RP Nick Harper was the team's only real offseason move.
Harper will join Josh Houston and Grant Westbrook in what should be a solid bullpen.
The rotation still features quality starters Aurelio Martin and Vinny Matthews at the top, with Pablo Campos, Nick Roosevelt and an unattractive choice between Ed McNamara and Javy Gomez.
The pitching staff allowed 720 runs last season, fifth in the NL, and should be somewhere in that range again this season. The offense, on the other hand, is a mess. It was 12th in the league with 709 runs scored last season and doesn't appear much improved.
LF Enrique Melendez is the only player on Ottawa's roster who had at least 250 at-bats for the Otters last season and posted an OPS above .800. RF Tony Cela should bounce back from a disappointing season, but it's no guarantee. James Holmes and Esteban Lecuona will take some of the at-bats left by the departures of Dixon, Weaver and Woods, but it remains to be seen whether they can improve on the poor performance of that trio.
Prediction: 81-81
Sioux Falls Gunslingers (72-90)
Sioux Falls also didn't lose anybody of consequence, and actually made one of the biggest one-for-one upgrades of the entire offseason. The Gunslingers kicked Howard Riley (.543 OPS in 387 at-bats) to the curb and signed J.D. Pettyjohn to take most of the at-bats at catcher. Even if Pettyjohn fails to replicate last season's career year, he'll be a huge improvement over Riley. Sioux Falls' offense (15th in the NL last season) should also get more production from corner outfielders Al Rapp and Carlos Carreras.
Sioux Falls' other offseason move was to trade for SP Jayson Ellis who should benefit from leaving Fenway behind and joining the NL. He'll lead a rag-tag rotation that may shift a lot througout the season.
The strength of the Gunslingers is definitely its bullpen, led by Crash Miller, Larry Piatt and Rob Hutch.
Prediction: 75-87
Milwaukee Twindyans (69-93)
After nine consecutive winning seasons and eight playoff appearances, Milwaukee fell hard last season, and it's not going to get any better this season. The Twindyans traded their best hitter (Darrin Murphy) during season 10 and then lost their next-best hitter (Victor Bieser) in the offseason. So an offense that was 13th in the NL with 691 runs scored last season could be much, much worse this season.
On top of that, the Twindyans also lost their best starting pitcher (Larry Williamson) during the offseason and will replace him with rookie Theo Marquis, who should be solid but is untested as of yet.
And the only relievers in the bullpen who posted sub-4 ERAs in significant action are Rickey Bolick and the ancient Vic Alfonzo.
Prediction: 65-97
Vancouver lost half-season rental Eugene Ramirez to free agency, but that may not be as big a loss as expected. The Vigilantes went out and signed Ruben Crespo to replace him. While Crespo's not quite as good as Ramirez, he did post a 3.99 ERA in an AL hitters' park last season, while pitching 311 innings. Crespo should be able to improve upon the production Vancouver got from Ramirez and Coco Ferrell last season (a combined 3.89 ERA in 236 innings).
Vancouver's other big loss was RF Douglas Coleridge. To replace his bat, they traded for 3B Darron Jenkins and will move Brandon Sheffield to RF.
Jenkins should help an offense that finished third in the NL in runs scored (894) last season, as he joins 2B Bryan Beckett, Sheffield, CF Joseph Wang, SS Turk Badilla and LF Mark Sakamoto in a balanced lineup. The only weak spot is 1B, where the Vigilantes will try to get by with Pedro Marin.
Crespo leads a rotation that includes Paul Wilson and a bunch of question marks. Pat Bowen and Tomas Moreno have durability issues. Juan Gonzales has stamina issues. And Alfonso Aquino and Fred Torres have issues of quality.
The bullpen will rely heavily on Shigetoshi Itou and Clyde Haynes.
When you factor in the age-related declines of Beckett and Gonzales, Vancouver probably only improved slightly in the offseason. The good news for Vigilantes fans is that nobody else in the division did enough to make up the gap.
Prediction: 94-68, first place by at least 10 games
Ottawa Otters (79-83)
Ottawa didn't lose any critical players, saying goodbye to Rickey Dixon and Octavio Suarez and good riddance to Andy Weaver and Cody Woods. Unfortunately, the Otters didn't add any critical players either, as signing RP Nick Harper was the team's only real offseason move.
Harper will join Josh Houston and Grant Westbrook in what should be a solid bullpen.
The rotation still features quality starters Aurelio Martin and Vinny Matthews at the top, with Pablo Campos, Nick Roosevelt and an unattractive choice between Ed McNamara and Javy Gomez.
The pitching staff allowed 720 runs last season, fifth in the NL, and should be somewhere in that range again this season. The offense, on the other hand, is a mess. It was 12th in the league with 709 runs scored last season and doesn't appear much improved.
LF Enrique Melendez is the only player on Ottawa's roster who had at least 250 at-bats for the Otters last season and posted an OPS above .800. RF Tony Cela should bounce back from a disappointing season, but it's no guarantee. James Holmes and Esteban Lecuona will take some of the at-bats left by the departures of Dixon, Weaver and Woods, but it remains to be seen whether they can improve on the poor performance of that trio.
Prediction: 81-81
Sioux Falls Gunslingers (72-90)
Sioux Falls also didn't lose anybody of consequence, and actually made one of the biggest one-for-one upgrades of the entire offseason. The Gunslingers kicked Howard Riley (.543 OPS in 387 at-bats) to the curb and signed J.D. Pettyjohn to take most of the at-bats at catcher. Even if Pettyjohn fails to replicate last season's career year, he'll be a huge improvement over Riley. Sioux Falls' offense (15th in the NL last season) should also get more production from corner outfielders Al Rapp and Carlos Carreras.
Sioux Falls' other offseason move was to trade for SP Jayson Ellis who should benefit from leaving Fenway behind and joining the NL. He'll lead a rag-tag rotation that may shift a lot througout the season.
The strength of the Gunslingers is definitely its bullpen, led by Crash Miller, Larry Piatt and Rob Hutch.
Prediction: 75-87
Milwaukee Twindyans (69-93)
After nine consecutive winning seasons and eight playoff appearances, Milwaukee fell hard last season, and it's not going to get any better this season. The Twindyans traded their best hitter (Darrin Murphy) during season 10 and then lost their next-best hitter (Victor Bieser) in the offseason. So an offense that was 13th in the NL with 691 runs scored last season could be much, much worse this season.
On top of that, the Twindyans also lost their best starting pitcher (Larry Williamson) during the offseason and will replace him with rookie Theo Marquis, who should be solid but is untested as of yet.
And the only relievers in the bullpen who posted sub-4 ERAs in significant action are Rickey Bolick and the ancient Vic Alfonzo.
Prediction: 65-97
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