Vancouver Vigilantes (93-69, NL North champs)
Vancouver lost half-season rental Eugene Ramirez to free agency, but that may not be as big a loss as expected. The Vigilantes went out and signed Ruben Crespo to replace him. While Crespo's not quite as good as Ramirez, he did post a 3.99 ERA in an AL hitters' park last season, while pitching 311 innings. Crespo should be able to improve upon the production Vancouver got from Ramirez and Coco Ferrell last season (a combined 3.89 ERA in 236 innings).
Vancouver's other big loss was RF Douglas Coleridge. To replace his bat, they traded for 3B Darron Jenkins and will move Brandon Sheffield to RF.
Jenkins should help an offense that finished third in the NL in runs scored (894) last season, as he joins 2B Bryan Beckett, Sheffield, CF Joseph Wang, SS Turk Badilla and LF Mark Sakamoto in a balanced lineup. The only weak spot is 1B, where the Vigilantes will try to get by with Pedro Marin.
Crespo leads a rotation that includes Paul Wilson and a bunch of question marks. Pat Bowen and Tomas Moreno have durability issues. Juan Gonzales has stamina issues. And Alfonso Aquino and Fred Torres have issues of quality.
The bullpen will rely heavily on Shigetoshi Itou and Clyde Haynes.
When you factor in the age-related declines of Beckett and Gonzales, Vancouver probably only improved slightly in the offseason. The good news for Vigilantes fans is that nobody else in the division did enough to make up the gap.
Prediction: 94-68, first place by at least 10 games
Ottawa Otters (79-83)
Ottawa didn't lose any critical players, saying goodbye to Rickey Dixon and Octavio Suarez and good riddance to Andy Weaver and Cody Woods. Unfortunately, the Otters didn't add any critical players either, as signing RP Nick Harper was the team's only real offseason move.
Harper will join Josh Houston and Grant Westbrook in what should be a solid bullpen.
The rotation still features quality starters Aurelio Martin and Vinny Matthews at the top, with Pablo Campos, Nick Roosevelt and an unattractive choice between Ed McNamara and Javy Gomez.
The pitching staff allowed 720 runs last season, fifth in the NL, and should be somewhere in that range again this season. The offense, on the other hand, is a mess. It was 12th in the league with 709 runs scored last season and doesn't appear much improved.
LF Enrique Melendez is the only player on Ottawa's roster who had at least 250 at-bats for the Otters last season and posted an OPS above .800. RF Tony Cela should bounce back from a disappointing season, but it's no guarantee. James Holmes and Esteban Lecuona will take some of the at-bats left by the departures of Dixon, Weaver and Woods, but it remains to be seen whether they can improve on the poor performance of that trio.
Prediction: 81-81
Sioux Falls Gunslingers (72-90)
Sioux Falls also didn't lose anybody of consequence, and actually made one of the biggest one-for-one upgrades of the entire offseason. The Gunslingers kicked Howard Riley (.543 OPS in 387 at-bats) to the curb and signed J.D. Pettyjohn to take most of the at-bats at catcher. Even if Pettyjohn fails to replicate last season's career year, he'll be a huge improvement over Riley. Sioux Falls' offense (15th in the NL last season) should also get more production from corner outfielders Al Rapp and Carlos Carreras.
Sioux Falls' other offseason move was to trade for SP Jayson Ellis who should benefit from leaving Fenway behind and joining the NL. He'll lead a rag-tag rotation that may shift a lot througout the season.
The strength of the Gunslingers is definitely its bullpen, led by Crash Miller, Larry Piatt and Rob Hutch.
Prediction: 75-87
Milwaukee Twindyans (69-93)
After nine consecutive winning seasons and eight playoff appearances, Milwaukee fell hard last season, and it's not going to get any better this season. The Twindyans traded their best hitter (Darrin Murphy) during season 10 and then lost their next-best hitter (Victor Bieser) in the offseason. So an offense that was 13th in the NL with 691 runs scored last season could be much, much worse this season.
On top of that, the Twindyans also lost their best starting pitcher (Larry Williamson) during the offseason and will replace him with rookie Theo Marquis, who should be solid but is untested as of yet.
And the only relievers in the bullpen who posted sub-4 ERAs in significant action are Rickey Bolick and the ancient Vic Alfonzo.
Prediction: 65-97
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
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