Monday, March 23, 2009

GW2 AL North Preview: Season 1

How silly is it that I'm doing a preview writeup? Very silly. In nautical terms I don't know a mast from a poop-deck yet. I'm not even sure if salty sea-hands use that as a phrase, I just waned to say 'poop.' So without knowing hardly anything about what I'm doing, here are my ironclad, irrefutable, unimpeachable expert picks:

It’s the best of times and the worst of times in the AL North as two of GW2’s highest paid rosters group up with two of the worst paid. The Toledo Blades lead the league by a wide margin with their $118 million dollar payroll and the Chicago Manual of Style follow them with $107 million committed to players’ salaries. On the other side of the channel, the Seattle Slews and the Milwaukee Harleys are only paying their players about $70 million each. While revolution isn’t likely in Settle or Milwaukee, neither is a division title.


1st - Toledo Blades

Off-season Changes – The Blades were extremely active this off-season almost completely rebuilding their starting rotation. Headlined by free agent Hulk Reilly and backed up by FA Anthony Hodges and trade bait Rod Clark and Grant Glynn the Blades turned a bad staff into a solid one. Free agent left fielder Albert Charles should hit for a high average and set the table with his speed.

Why They’ll Win - The Blades lineup is blistering with veteran boppers like Mo Trujillo and Edgar Bautista and could score the most runs in the AL. They will get offensive production up the middle from Donald Wan and likely rookie 2B callup Bob Roberts. Their retooled staff should shoulder a decent load, and the backend of their bullpen, led by closer Pascual Roque will shut down a lot of teams at the ends of games.

Why They Might Not - Those middle infielders that can hit aren’t the greatest gloves, and that goes for most of this team. Their rotation is greatly improved but pales in comparison to division rival Chicago. They’ll give up their share of runs.

The Bottom Line - This team would have to give up a whole lot of runs to eclipse their prolific offense, and even with a shoddy D behind them the GM has assembled a respectable if unspectacular staff that should hand over plenty of leads to the bullpen.


2nd - Chicago Manual of Style

Off-season Changes – After losing out in the Posiedon Lamb sweepstakes they ponied up the cash and gave Wilfredo Martin a huge deal, adding him into a rotation that already had one of the best pitchers in the league in Andrew Burks.

Why They’ll Win – Chicago has one of the strongest one-two punches atop their rotation in the league and should have the best staff in their division. Their defense is very strong all around and their bullpen will be able to hold leads given to them. Ben Byrnes and Jack Nathan will turn two up the middle plenty of times this year. It’s going to be tough to score much against this team.

Why They Won’t Win – Chicago has too many guys that leave the bat at home and just bring the glove. Jack Nathan may win a gold glove, but won’t help much at all with the bat. They aren’t helping their lukewarm lineup by not having first base manned yet. Some of their best hitters like DH slugger Jesus Arroyo won’t give full production against righties, though lefties beware.

The Bottom Line – Runs will be tough to come by against this team and lefty starters will run into trouble, but their offense isn’t going to give the great pitching staff much help. They’ll be a good team, but the high-octane Blades have a more balanced roster that should outrun them.

3rd Milwaukee Harleys

Off-season Changes – Milwaukee stood mostly pat this off-season except for going to arbitration with a number of players. With a win-later $71 million payroll and solid talent on the ML roster, this team may later regret not selling off a bit more major league talent to further bolster their great farm system.

Why They Could Win – First baseman Matthew Forbes is one of the best hitters in the league as well as having one of the best names. The outfield defense could be very good with true center fielders in both center and right. Tom Farrell is one of the better starters in the league per inning. Hot prospect JT Timlin could be ready soon with hot D at SS and a good contact bat. They’ll score a good number of runs.

Why They Won’t – This team could have gone either way with their roster but decided to stand pat. Some tradeable talent is left stuck on a team with big holes that could have been filled through trades from the deep farm system or a little more spending. The whole lineup will struggle mightily against lefties. Outside of Farrell the starting staff isn’t very good and may issue a lot of walks.

Bottom Line – A team that isn’t really dedicated to what it is and when it wants to win. The deep farm system will get bolstered this season when they have the 4th pick in the draft and this team could look great in a couple years if the GM can hold onto some of the ML nucleus until the youngsters arrive. Unfortunately, the GM has not yet returned from his off-season trip into the Amazon and many fear he may have been eaten by cannibals or whacked by morneau33hr so he could get higher prices in his fire sale.

4th – Seattle Slews

Off-season Changes – The Slews did a better hyper-hypo than Mike Myers at the rule 5 draft this year, taking 8 players as they rebuilt their roster.

Why They’ll Win – Young knuckleballer Harry Ordonez is a good pitcher and the team has solid defense all around. Closer Moises Beltre and setup man Benito Sanchez will hold most the leads they are given.

Why They Won’t – The backend of their bullpen probably won’t be handed many leads as the rotation after Ordonez will give up too many runs. Banjo-hitting lineup won’t bail out the pitchers often. No clear-cut option in right field.

The Bottom Line – The Slews are actively retooling their roster and have the 10th pick the this summer’s amateur draft, but the pitching will get hammered by the division’s big hitters and the lineup won’t score much. It’s going to be a long season for Slews fans while the front office finds a nucleus to build around.

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