Friday, May 1, 2009

GW1 Look Back: Season 2 Draft

The players from the second amateur draft have finished their ninth professional season, so it's a good time to look back and see how that class has done so far.

I'm going to rank the 30 players who signed based on what they've done since then. Keep in mind that I'm not considering ratings at all. These ratings are based entirely on what each player has accomplished on the field.

Also, after ranking the first rounders, I'll list the 10 best players who weren't picked in the first round.

30. Vic Valentin (12th by Iowa City): The only Season 2 first-rounder who has already retired, Valentin got one season in the majors, posting a 7.80 ERA in 60 innings. In his minor league career, he had a 4.79 ERA in 278 innings. He was easily the biggest first-round bust of Season 2.

29. Ron Duvall (32nd by Los Angeles Hangars): Duvall is the only first-rounder who hasn't made an appearance in the majors. His minor league career is extensive, as he's gone 79-69 with a 4.39 ERA in 1,289 innings.

28. Max Walters (29th by Los Angeles Snappers): When first drafted, Walters looked like he could be a mediocre hitter with a good glove. Instead, he's become a bad hitter with a mediocre glove. He's hit .263/.327/.314 (.641) in 2,036 at-bats and he hasn't posted a .700-plus OPS in four seasons. Defensively, he has nine plus plays and nine minus plays in nearly 3,800 innings at shortstop.

27. Kareem Duckworth (15th by San Antonio): Duckworth has some power, with 159 big league homers in 617 games, but that's about it. He's hit .242/.300/.488 (.788) in 2.362 at-bats, and making outs in 70% of your plate appearances is unacceptable for a left fielder. He does play good defense, winning a Gold Glove in Season 10.

26. Mikey Houston (18th by Indianapolis): Houston had a good start to his career, posting an .821 OPS as a rookie and a .799 OPS the following season. He hasn't been nearly as good since then and now sports a .263/.328/.394 (.722) line in 2,884 at-bats. He spent a good chunk of Season 10 in AAA and only got 56 big league at-bats. Defensively, he has 12 plus plays and 19 minus plays in nearly 6,000 innings at second base.

25. Al Clinton (20th by Syracuse): Aside from a 69-game stint with the Chicago Jayhawks, Clinton's had a thoroughly mediocre career. His career line is .265/.323/.414 (.737) in 2,147 at-bats. He's been solid on defense, mostly at second base, with eight plus plays and four minus plays in nearly 3,600 innings there. He also won a Gold Glove at second in Season 10.

24. Chili Coles (16th by Nashville): Coles didn't reach the majors until Season 8, when he was 27 years old, and he hasn't done much in the three seasons since. He's 35-32 with a 5.41 ERA in 611 career innings, and his best season was a 4.54 ERA in Season 9. The biggest problem in his career has been the long ball, as he's allowed 124 homers so far, including 49 in Season 10.

23. Jose Nieves (30th by Atlanta): Nieves reached the majors for good in Season 5, but he's never been a full-time player, with a high of 410 at-bats in Season 9. His best attribute is his power, with a .263/.324/.488 (.812) line with 110 homers in 1,844 at-bats. For a corner outfielder, he's just not that good a hitter.

22. Dan Ojala (10th by Cheyenne): Ojala has played at least 146 games for the Tackleberries ever since his rookie year in Season 5. He's shown consistent 20-homer power, but he doesn't get on base much, hitting .253/.316/.440 (.756) with 138 homers in 3,263 at-bats. His best performance was an .817 OPS in Season 6, when he was an All-Star. Defensively, he's been poor at both center field (4,500 innings) and shortstop (1,900 innings); he'd be a very good second baseman though.

21. Ozzie Zhang (5th by Philadelphia): Zhang had short stints in the majors in Seasons 3 and 4 before getting a full-time job in Season 5. He's a solid pitcher, but he'd be much better if he didn't struggle mightily against lefties. For his career, he's 59-77 with a 5.28 ERA in 1,203 innings, which isn't terrible in a hitters' park in the AL.

20. Jeremy Walker (28th by Indianapolis): Walker didn't reach the majors until Season 7, when he was 25 years old. He posted a 4.24 ERA as a rookie that season and while he hasn't been that good since, he's still 53-53 with a 5.13 ERA in 905 innings for his career.

19. Tony Cela (8th by Kansas City): Cela has struggled to live up to his potential as a player with great contact skills, good power and a decent batting eye to go with a solid approach at the plate. He came up late in Season 5 and had a nice 25-game stint, but he's been unable to match that level of production since. For his career, he's hitting .276/.334/.491 (.825) with 152 homers in 2,907 at-bats. His career thus far has to be considered a huge disappointment, especially considering the corner outfielder who went one spot later.

18. Jose Machado (31st by Los Angeles Snappers): Coming off his fourth season in the majors, Machado has shown good power but has struggled to get on base. He's also struggled with durability, and he had a major injury in Season 9. For his career, he's hitting .274/.328/.513 (.841) with 117 homers in 1,849 innings. Defensively, he has 5 plus plays and 2 minus plays in more than 3,900 innings at third base.

17. Victor Bieser (22nd by Milwaukee): Bieser was a part-time player early in his career, and didn't really get to start every day until his last two seasons. He doesn't have great home run power for a corner outfielder, but he's hit .282/.347/.505 (.852) in 1,901 at-bats.

16. Mark Lyons (13th by Tampa Bay): Lyons got a bit of a late start, as he didn't reach the majors for good until Season 7, when he was 25 years old. He's been OK since then, hitting .282/.354/.481 (.835) in 2,131 at-bats, mostly in a slight hitters' park. He doesn't have the power you'd like from a corner outfielder (only 85 homers), but he gets on base at a solid clip and he's stolen 212 bases in 237 attempts.

15. Bronson Ritz (23rd by St. Louis): Ritz was called up to the majors early in Season 4 at the tender age of 20 and has been a full-time player ever since. He's had a couple fantastic seasons (.289/.348/.604 with 45 homers in Season 7 and .271/.337/.553 with 42 homers in Season 6), but mostly he's been a home run hitter who doesn't get on base otherwise. He's hitting .264/.325/.524 (.849) with 265 homers in 3,785 at-bats in his career. Even in a pitchers' park, he hasn't been a great hitter for a right fielder.

14. Jon Stowers (11th by Boise): Stowers was one of the first Season 2 draft picks to reach the majors, getting called up before midseason of Season 3. Since then, he's hit .281/.346/.512 (.858) in 4,360 at-bats, getting some help from a hitters' park. He supplements decent home run power (209 in his career) with good doubles power (269). He's also stolen 186 bases, but not at a great rate (65%). He's been a good-hitting (but not great) right fielder.

13. Geoff Forest (17th by San Antonio): Forest didn't get a full-time job in the majors until Season 7, but he's been pretty good in his four seasons since then, hitting .285/.359/.415 (.774) in 2,402 at-bats. He has been helped by playing in a pretty good hitters' park for 2.5 seasons, but even so you have to like that kind of OBP from a second baseman. His defense has been spotty, with 11 plus plays and 16 minus plays in more than 4,300 innings.

12. Clyde Haynes (19th by Montreal): Haynes has an amazing combination of control and pure stuff, but his pitches never really developed, which has led to some inconsistency. He posted ERAs of 3.75 or lower in Seasons 6, 7 and 10 and ERAs of 4.73 and 4.32 in Seasons 8 and 9. For his career, he's 21-22 with a 3.96 ERA and 88 saves in 111 chances in 347 innings. For a reliever in a neutral park in the NL, he's been solid but not great. Strangely, his one All-Star appearance came in Season 8, his worst season.

11. Luis Uribe (6th by Buffalo): Uribe spent some time in the majors in Seasons 3 and 4 before sticking for good to start Season 5. He's been Buffalo's starting shortstop since then, and while his defense is somewhat lacking, he's been one of the better hitters at his position in the AL. Uribe has a .274/.334/.456 (.790) line in 3,542 at-bats, which is good enough to earn him Silver Slugger awards in Seasons 7, 9 and 10. He's hit 132 career homers while stealing 148 bases in 186 attempts. Defensively, he has 7 plus plays and 20 minus plays in more than 6,000 innings. His lone All-Star appearance came in Season 7.

10. Gene Tessmer (7th by Las Vegas): Tessmer's a better-hitting, better-fielding version of Uribe. He came up early in Season 6 and has hit .278/.331/.497 (.828) with 146 homers in 2,741 at-bats. He's spent 3.5 seasons in a good hitters' park and a little over a season in a terrible hitters' park. His .307/.358/.592 line with 44 homers and 100 RBI was good for an All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger award in Season 9, and he also made the All-Star team in Season 10. Defensively, he has 11 plus plays and 13 minus plays in nearly 5,200 innings at shortstop.

9. Sid Fleming (2nd by Rochester): Fleming was in the majors by early in Season 4, and he was an excellent hitter through Season 8. For some reason he's struggled mightily the past two seasons, but he's still hitting .276/.324/.536 (.860) with 271 homers in 4,234 career at-bats, although he has been helped by his home park most of his career. Defensively, he's been terrible in center field (11 plus plays and 38 minus plays in nearly 5,800 innings) and decent at shortstop (5 plus plays and 4 minus plays in about 2,150 innings).

8. Dale Stewart (3rd by San Francisco): Stewart played just 82 games in the minors after getting drafted before he was in the majors that season as a 22-year-old just out of college. He's been a consistently good hitter ever since. For his career, Stewart's hitting .284/.351/.480 (.831) with 169 homers, 294 doubles and 195 steals (in 264 attempts) in 4,660 at-bats. He's played in both hitters' parks (his best years came in Seasons 8 and 9 in Minnesota) and pitchers' parks (his worst year was Season 7 in Las Vegas). Defensively, he was out of his element when asked to play shortstop, posting 9 plus plays and 44 minus plays in more than 6,100 innings. In his 3,200-plus innings at second base, he's had 8 plus plays and 2 minus plays. Stewart has won two Silver Sluggers awards and has made the All-Star team twice.

7. Joey Ward (14th by Albuquerque): Ward has had a tumultuous career, getting traded three times and seeing his performance range from a 3.83 ERA in Season 5 with Minnesota to a 5.24 ERA in Season 8 with Minnesota and Syracuse. For his career, Ward's 49-31 with a 4.34 ERA in 757 innings. He's also spent his entire career in the AL, and about half of it with a slight hitter's park as his home park.

6. Luis Cervantes (21st by Charlotte): Cervantes spent his entire career in the Charlotte/Richmond system before leaving as a free agent to sign with Fargo this offseason. In his seven seasons with Richmond, he was a model of consistency, posting an OPS between .832 and .910 every season. For his career, he's hit .298/.381/.495 (.876) with 189 homers in 3,867 at-bats. He's also been an excellent defensive first baseman, winning the Gold Glove award in Seasons 5 and 9.

5. Goose Hayes (25th by Minnesota): Traded from Minnesota to Washington in a swap of elite prospects, Hayes has gone on to great success in the majors. He went 14-5 with a 3.31 ERA in Season 7 to win the Rookie of the Year award and he blossomed into a true star in Season 10, going 19-6 with a 2.89 ERA. A poor Season 9 that's looking like a fluke is the only reason he hasn't done better in his career than 55-36 with a 3.71 ERA in 828 innings.

4. Richard Stocker (24th by N.Y. Mets): Stocker got a brief stint in the majors in Season 3, came up halfway through Season 4 and played his first full season in the bigs at age 24. Since that Season 4 call-up, he's done nothing but mash, hitting .308/.385/.591 (.976) with 293 homers in 3,840 at-bats. His defense at first base has been spotty, but that hardly matters when you hit like he does. He's made the All-Star team in Seasons 7, 8 and 10.

3. Haywood Gipson (1st by Colorado): The fact that Gipson isn't No. 1 on this list just shows you how strong this draft was. Gipson made his big league debut early in Season 6 and has been the NL's best second baseman over the 4-plus seasons since, making four All-Star teams and winning three Silver Slugger awards. For his career, he's hit .306/.370/.548 (.918) with 165 homers and 94 steals (in 123 attempts) in 2,863 at-bats. He hasn't been awful defensively, either, with 10 plus plays and 12 minus plays in nearly 6,000 innings.

2. Al Iglesias (4th by Scranton): He may eventually be No. 1 on this list, but for now Iglesias hasn't done enough to overcome the fact that he reached the majors four seasons after the top guy. When he did make it to the bigs, he made an instant impact, posting a .935 OPS as a rookie in Season 7. He followed that up by hitting .351/.419/.699 (1.118) with 40 homers, 96 RBI and 114 runs scored to win the Season 8 MVP award. He hasn't been that good the past two seasons, but he still has a .325/.395/.586 (.981) line with 118 homers in 2,129 career at-bats. He's not a good defender, with 6 plus plays and 13 minus plays in about 4,300 innings in center field, but the fact that he can even play a premier position gives him a ton of value. In addition to his MVP award, he's made three All-Star teams and won two Silver Slugger awards.

1. Nash McCartin (9th by Boston): A college graduate, McCartin probably could have gone straight from the draft to the majors. Instead he stayed in the minors until late in Season 3, and he struggled after getting called up. Starting in Season 4, however, he turned into a hitting machine and hasn't stopped, hitting .325/.380/.691 (1.071) with 390 homers in 3,790 at-bats. He's played his entire career in hitters' parks, but that only helps so much. He posted an 1.174 OPS with 76 homers and 167 RBI to win the Season 10 MVP award, and he's also made six All-Star teams and won four Silver Slugger awards.

Top 10 non-first-rounders (in order of when they were picked)

Scot Rhodes (34th by Chicago): .265/.351/.558 (.909) with 257 homers in 2,963 at-bats. Season 6 Rookie of the Year, Season 7 All-Star, Gold Glove first baseman in Seasons 8 and 10.

Andy Page (40th by Kansas City): .277/.340/.500 (.840) with 128 homers in 2,582 at-bats. 11 plus plays, 11 minus plays in 5,500 innings at second base.

Charlie Ramsey (49th by Kansas City): .279/.342/.403 (.745) in 2,531 at-bats. Has thrown out 25.5 percent of base stealers (112 of 440) in 5,500 innings.

David Gates (51st by N.Y. Yankees): 30-35 with a 4.88 ERA in 573 innings.

Daniel Thompson (64th by St. Louis): .270/.347/.420 (.767) in 2,061 at-bats. 22 plus plays, 9 minus plays in 4,000 innings at second base. Season 8 Gold Glove winner.

Lance Acosta (65th by N.Y. Mets): 14-15 with 21 saves in 33 chances and 3.51 ERA in 215 innings.

Douglas Jordan (76th by San Francisco): 11-10 with six saves in seven chances and 4.48 ERA in 211 innings.

Dave Coles (83rd by Cheyenne): .310/.386/.477 (.863) in 2,266 at-bats. 5 plus plays, 4 minus plays in 5,000 innings at first base. Season 9 All-Star.

Jesus Santos (124th by Montreal): 10-23 with 56 saves in 76 chances and a 4.56 ERA in 225 innings. Season 8 All-Star.

Ben Everett (161st by N.Y. Mets): .246/.332/.519 (.851) with 98 homers in 1,315 at-bats.

1 comment:

Sche0707 said...

I didn't see McCartin which is too bad or I would have taken him over cela the rest of my draft was pretty good though.