Tuesday, March 24, 2009

GW 2 NL East Preview: Season 1

Rochester
Rochester Garbage Plates (NL)
benj13blue
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The Garbage Plates are old. Plain and simple. Only 5 players on their 25 man roster are under the age of 30; the team is clearly built to win now, not later. Appropriately, Rochester GM benj13blue signed star veteran Tom Beckett to a monstrous 5 year deal worth a whopping $91 million. Along with F.P. Wall and Quentin Cepicky, among others, the Garbage Plates should be well equipped to give the rotation plenty of run support. Not that they'd need all that much; headed by emerging ace Benji Juarez and recently acquired vets Bob Trammell and J.P. Alonso, Rochester should have no problem getting deep into games with the lead. Then it'll be up to mustachioed menace Fred Ohman and setup ace Chief Lewis to clinch the victory. You could argue that the team's a bit thin on the margins, especially concerning the pitching (there are no obvious in-house candidates should one of the starters get hurt, and the 'pen is very top-heavy). Still, the star talent on this team is as good as any in the league.

Prediction: 101-61, NL East Champs




The Bunks probably won't win the division, but they might be good enough to sneak into the playoffs regardless. They aggressively traded away some of their starting pitching (plus a prospect) in order to acquire up-the-middle players Bob Gilmore, Fred Washington, and Joe Benson. Combined with other notable position players Pete Matthews and Oswaldo Javier, the Bunks should be able to hold their own on the offensive end, although the defense might be a bit shaky at shortstop, as no one on the roster can be considered an average defender there. The rotation is headed by ace David Flores, who has Cy Young-worthy talent. A concern is the general lack of stamina from the starters, though, as only Glen Herzog can be classified as a workhorse, and the bullpen looks shaky at best. Still, despite their shortcomings, expect Baltimore to be in the race until the very end.

Prediction: 84-78, 3rd place




On a per-inning basis, the Knights may have one of the best rotations in baseball. With a quartet of pitchers like Lewis Neill, Lon Cashman, Pedro Bournigal, and Frank Battle, it's hard to see the Knights giving up very many runs in the first 5 or 6 innings of any ballgame. The problem is, other than Battle, none of the other three can be expected to pitch past that point. And, to put it charitably, the bullpen is a mess. Ebenezer Randa should hold his own, but arsonists Jacque Cox and Dean Moeller are strangely still on the ML roster. And then there's the lineup, which has its own set of problems. Omar Gutierrez can hit, and Darrin Sanders isn't bad despite his hacktastic approach. Outside of those two, you're left with a squad that may struggle to outhit a good AAA team. Charlotte GM pic27 had a very quiet offseason, with nary a free agent signing, trade, waiver wire pickup, or Rule 5 selection. All moves were done in-house; whether such an approach will pay off remains to be seen.

Prediction: 72-90, 4th place



Chicago
Chicago Apple Hurlers (NL)
themoff02
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The Apple Hurlers are a young squad (2nd youngest in the NL), but the kids certainly have talent. The lineup looks like it might be short on OBP, but they're hardly short on pure sluggers. Guys like Francis O'Brien, Gus Harris, Aaron Poole, Ossie Heredia, and Henry Donahue rank among the more powerful sluggers in the league; all are capable of slugging well above .500 in any given season. The pitching staff is led by starters Jonathan Walker and Kevin Miles, both very talented hurlers. Clarence Hurst could either be an excellent closer or a quality 5 inning starter. The rotation after that looks dangerously thin; Woody Roberts and Harry Trevino are hardly sure things in the back of the rotation, and neither Bert Witt nor Francis Shea belong on an ML roster. The bullpen is playable, though not really a strength. It'll be interesting to see if Chicago can improve on the margins; GM themoff02 has had an uncharacteristically quiet offseason.

Prediction: 86-76, 2nd place

Monday, March 23, 2009

GW2 AL North Preview: Season 1

How silly is it that I'm doing a preview writeup? Very silly. In nautical terms I don't know a mast from a poop-deck yet. I'm not even sure if salty sea-hands use that as a phrase, I just waned to say 'poop.' So without knowing hardly anything about what I'm doing, here are my ironclad, irrefutable, unimpeachable expert picks:

It’s the best of times and the worst of times in the AL North as two of GW2’s highest paid rosters group up with two of the worst paid. The Toledo Blades lead the league by a wide margin with their $118 million dollar payroll and the Chicago Manual of Style follow them with $107 million committed to players’ salaries. On the other side of the channel, the Seattle Slews and the Milwaukee Harleys are only paying their players about $70 million each. While revolution isn’t likely in Settle or Milwaukee, neither is a division title.


1st - Toledo Blades

Off-season Changes – The Blades were extremely active this off-season almost completely rebuilding their starting rotation. Headlined by free agent Hulk Reilly and backed up by FA Anthony Hodges and trade bait Rod Clark and Grant Glynn the Blades turned a bad staff into a solid one. Free agent left fielder Albert Charles should hit for a high average and set the table with his speed.

Why They’ll Win - The Blades lineup is blistering with veteran boppers like Mo Trujillo and Edgar Bautista and could score the most runs in the AL. They will get offensive production up the middle from Donald Wan and likely rookie 2B callup Bob Roberts. Their retooled staff should shoulder a decent load, and the backend of their bullpen, led by closer Pascual Roque will shut down a lot of teams at the ends of games.

Why They Might Not - Those middle infielders that can hit aren’t the greatest gloves, and that goes for most of this team. Their rotation is greatly improved but pales in comparison to division rival Chicago. They’ll give up their share of runs.

The Bottom Line - This team would have to give up a whole lot of runs to eclipse their prolific offense, and even with a shoddy D behind them the GM has assembled a respectable if unspectacular staff that should hand over plenty of leads to the bullpen.


2nd - Chicago Manual of Style

Off-season Changes – After losing out in the Posiedon Lamb sweepstakes they ponied up the cash and gave Wilfredo Martin a huge deal, adding him into a rotation that already had one of the best pitchers in the league in Andrew Burks.

Why They’ll Win – Chicago has one of the strongest one-two punches atop their rotation in the league and should have the best staff in their division. Their defense is very strong all around and their bullpen will be able to hold leads given to them. Ben Byrnes and Jack Nathan will turn two up the middle plenty of times this year. It’s going to be tough to score much against this team.

Why They Won’t Win – Chicago has too many guys that leave the bat at home and just bring the glove. Jack Nathan may win a gold glove, but won’t help much at all with the bat. They aren’t helping their lukewarm lineup by not having first base manned yet. Some of their best hitters like DH slugger Jesus Arroyo won’t give full production against righties, though lefties beware.

The Bottom Line – Runs will be tough to come by against this team and lefty starters will run into trouble, but their offense isn’t going to give the great pitching staff much help. They’ll be a good team, but the high-octane Blades have a more balanced roster that should outrun them.

3rd Milwaukee Harleys

Off-season Changes – Milwaukee stood mostly pat this off-season except for going to arbitration with a number of players. With a win-later $71 million payroll and solid talent on the ML roster, this team may later regret not selling off a bit more major league talent to further bolster their great farm system.

Why They Could Win – First baseman Matthew Forbes is one of the best hitters in the league as well as having one of the best names. The outfield defense could be very good with true center fielders in both center and right. Tom Farrell is one of the better starters in the league per inning. Hot prospect JT Timlin could be ready soon with hot D at SS and a good contact bat. They’ll score a good number of runs.

Why They Won’t – This team could have gone either way with their roster but decided to stand pat. Some tradeable talent is left stuck on a team with big holes that could have been filled through trades from the deep farm system or a little more spending. The whole lineup will struggle mightily against lefties. Outside of Farrell the starting staff isn’t very good and may issue a lot of walks.

Bottom Line – A team that isn’t really dedicated to what it is and when it wants to win. The deep farm system will get bolstered this season when they have the 4th pick in the draft and this team could look great in a couple years if the GM can hold onto some of the ML nucleus until the youngsters arrive. Unfortunately, the GM has not yet returned from his off-season trip into the Amazon and many fear he may have been eaten by cannibals or whacked by morneau33hr so he could get higher prices in his fire sale.

4th – Seattle Slews

Off-season Changes – The Slews did a better hyper-hypo than Mike Myers at the rule 5 draft this year, taking 8 players as they rebuilt their roster.

Why They’ll Win – Young knuckleballer Harry Ordonez is a good pitcher and the team has solid defense all around. Closer Moises Beltre and setup man Benito Sanchez will hold most the leads they are given.

Why They Won’t – The backend of their bullpen probably won’t be handed many leads as the rotation after Ordonez will give up too many runs. Banjo-hitting lineup won’t bail out the pitchers often. No clear-cut option in right field.

The Bottom Line – The Slews are actively retooling their roster and have the 10th pick the this summer’s amateur draft, but the pitching will get hammered by the division’s big hitters and the lineup won’t score much. It’s going to be a long season for Slews fans while the front office finds a nucleus to build around.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

GW1 AL Midseason Awards

MVP

Ronald Garcia
Minnesota
Fatboys
Age: 32B/T: S/R
Born: Bardwell, KY
Position(s): 3B/1B/2B/OF/DH
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Over fellow 3B Darron Jenkins.

Cy Young

Clay Young
Buffalo
Europeans
Age: 28B/T: R/R
Born: East Hanover, NJ
Position(s): P (SP2)
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Over Don Masato

Rookie of the Year

James Morrison
Minnesota
Fatboys
Age: 24B/T: S/L
Born: Hesperia, CA
Position(s): 1B/COF/DH
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Over Otis Combs

Silver Sluggers

C: Jumbo Rijo
1B: Richard Stocker
2B: Ronald Levrault
3B: Ronald Garcia
SS: Pat Badilla
LF: Hector Santos
CF: Miguel Bennett
RF: Valerio Duran
DH: Thumper Neagle

Gold Gloves

P: Matty Halter
C: Jumbo Rijo
1B: Ken James
2B: Christopher Roth
3B: Darron Jenkins
SS: Oscar Sugawara
LF: Ellis Clifton
CF: Omar Trevino
RF: Charlie James

Friday, March 20, 2009

NL Mid Season Awards

NL MVP:

Juan DeSoto
Chicago
Jayhawks
Age: 25B/T: R/R
Born: La Romana, DO
Position(s): C/DH
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It's not even a close race at this point.


NL CY Young Award:

John Carroll
St. Louis
Greys
Age: 30B/T: R/R
Born: Eclectic, AL
Position(s): P (SP1)
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In another race that isn't very close.


Relief Ace:
By the point system used by the Rolaids relief awards it would probably be:

Moe Farley
Oklahoma City
Twins
Age: 25B/T: R/R
Born: Ramsey, IL
Position(s): P (ClA)
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But Josh Houston has had a better year so far.

Josh Houston
Ottawa
Otters
Age: 27B/T: S/R
Born: Beaverton, OR
Position(s): P (ClA)
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NL Gold Glove Awards:
C: Richard Maxwell
1B: Charles Shibata
2B: Daniel Thompson
SS: Andy Weaver
3B: Raul Rivera
LF: Kareem Duckworth
CF: Pete Skinner
RF: Ricardo Rincon
P: Miguel Abreu

Rookie of the Year:
If he is eligible it is:

Albert Brooks
Washington D.C.
Bureaucrats
Age: 22B/T: S/R
Born: Richlands, VA
Position(s): RF
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Otherwise it is:

Chris Mason
Salem
Sidehill Gougers
Age: 24B/T: S/R
Born: Independence, KS
Position(s): RF
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Friday, March 13, 2009

Gleeman World 2: Best MLB Players

While waiting for budgets to be set and projected ratings to appear, I thought it would be interesting to examine the initial crop of MLB players in Gleeman World 2. Nearly all players on MLB rosters are at least 24-25 years old, so their projected ratings shouldn't have a huge impact on their value.

However, one flaw with my little study is that for some reason tons of MLB-quality guys are assigned to Triple-A upon world creation and I've chosen to examine only players on MLB rosters for the sake of simplicity. I've also chosen to rank strictly based on playing ability without including workload capability as a major factor.

With that disclaimer out of the way, here are my quick-and-dirty picks for the top MLB players in Gleeman World 2 ...

Pitchers: Stamina = 70-99

1. Pascual Esposito - Oakland, 26 years old
2. John Sung - Minnesota, 30 years old
3. Jon Cedeno - Iowa City, 31 years old
4. Red Reed - St. Louis, 31 years old
5. Rod Clark - Baltimore, 32 years old
6. Bucky Kelly - Louisville, 30 years old
7. Ben Gose - Mexico City, 26 years old
8. Pat Tipton - Atlanta, 30 years old
9. Earl Buckley - Oakland, 27 years old
10. Andrew Burks - Chicago, 32 years old

Notes: Not only is Oakland the only team with a pair of top-10 guys, both of them are in their mid-20s whereas seven of the other eight guys are in their 30s. My best guy, John Sung, ranks as the No. 2 pitcher in the 70-99 stamina range despite having a 65 rating versus right-handed batters and a 77-rated first pitch, which says an awful lot about how low the level of talent is in GW2 (or says my ranking system is off base, of course).

Pitchers: Stamina = 50-69

1. Lewis Neill - Charlotte, 33 years old
2. Pedro Bournigal - Charlotte, 26 years old
3. Lon Cashman - Charlotte, 29 years old
4. Earl Lofton - Louisville, 33 years old
5. David Flores - Baltimore, 31 years old
6. Yoo-Nah Chen - Minnesota, 31 years old
7. Clarence Hurst - Chicago, 31 years old
8. Fausto Castillo - Oakland, 33 years old
9. Tom Farrell - Milwaukee, 27 years old
10. Ray Hall - Vancouver - 29 years old

Notes: On a per-inning basis, an argument can be made for Charlotte owning the three best pitchers in all of GW2. You'll also notice that Oakland has a third top-10 guy here, while Minnesota, Louisville, and Baltimore have one pitcher on each list.

Pitchers: Stamina = 20-49

1. Pascual Roque - Toledo, 30 years old
2. Octavio Sardinha - Colorado Springs, 28 years old
3. Moises Beltre - Seattle, 32 years old
4. Don Murray - St. Louis, 32 years old
5. Cesar Johnson - Texas, 36 years old
6. George Bailey - Augusta, 33 years old
7. Billy Ferguson - San Antonio, 32 years old
8. Pat Ross - Iowa City, 34 years old
9. Carlos James - San Antonio, 27 years old
10. Albert Galvez - Iowa City, 27 years old

Notes: Along with the overall low level of talent, one thing that stands out to me is how weak the relief pitching is in GW2. GW1 featured quite a few truly dominant relievers right away, but that's far from the case with GW2. In fact, I'd say the GW2 starters are actually better than the relievers even without factoring in their ability to pitch more innings. All of which seems very odd to me.

Pitchers conclusion: Having looked over all the MLB pitchers, it is clear to me that the talent level in Gleeman World 2 is significantly lower than the talent level in Gleeman World 1. If the above rankings were a blend of GW1 and GW2, my guess is that at least 75 percent of the pitchers would be from GW1. A solid No. 2 starter in GW1 is essentially an ace in GW2 and a decent setup man in GW1 is basically a top-flight closer in GW2. And that may actually be understating the talent gap.

Hitters

1. Benji Olivo - San Antonio, 25 years old
2. Matthew Forbes - Milwaukee, 27 years old
3. Quentin Cepicky - Rochester, 32 years old
4. Roger Barclay - Fargo, 27 years old
5. Phil Takahashi - Iowa City, 29 years old
6. Miguel Carrara - San Antonio, 27 years old
7. Chico Rincon - Minnesota, 28 years old
8. Jimmy Forsch - Cheyenne, 30 years old
9. Cliff Carter - Trenton, 30 years old
10. Tony Viriato - Cheyenne, 27 years old
11. Gus Harris - Chicago, 23 years old
12. Edgar Bautista - Toledo, 31 years old
13. Mo Trujillo, Toledo, 31 years old
14. F.P. Wall - Rochester, 31 years old
15. Chan Dong - Trenton, 24 years old
16. Orlando Alvarez - Minnesota, 24 years old
17. Mark Jarvis - Iowa City, 28 years old
18. Albert Ortega - Cheyenne, 25 years old
19. Jin-Chi Chen - Baltimore, 26 years old
20. Orber Johnson - New York, 35 years old

Notes: First of all, the above list is based strictly on hitting ability without any sort of positional or defensive adjustments, so it's heavy on first basemen, corner outfielders, and catchers while light on shortstops, center fielders, and second basemen. Making those sorts of adjustments was a little more work than I'm willing to do in the name of boredom/curiosity, so the rankings are "best hitters" rather than "best players."

Hitters conclusion: As a whole the top hitters are much younger than the top pitchers, and that would likely skew even further with positional adjustments (since good SS/CF/2B are almost all young). My sense is that the talent gap from GW1 to GW2 is still plenty massive for hitters, but perhaps not quite as gigantic as for pitchers. I'd pick Phil Takahashi as GW2's most valuable all-around player because he ranks as a top-five hitter and plays Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop. I'm sure thorku will trade him to benj13blue in about 6-7 seasons.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Updated Gleeman World 2 Alignment

Based on people changing their mind about being in or out for GW2 and some new requests in terms of league/division/city I've altered the original alignment plans a bit. I've essentially based everything on each owner's average wins per season, so the divisions and leagues are pretty much balanced in terms of winning percentages.

If you give each empty slot/new owner credit for 70 wins per season (which is basically our low marks for GW1 owners), then the divisions collectively range from 78-82 wins per season. The AL is at 78.5 and the NL is at 79.5. Also, my division has the second-highest average wins in the NL and the fourth-highest overall.

AL North: goosegoslin, thegeneral13, cademord
AL East: sickchangeup, edwzipper, mrauseo
AL South: thorku, garlogic
AL West: base_ballers, parnold1

NL North: aarongleeman, caolson, sdedalus
NL East: benj13blue, themoff02, mattwithanh
NL South: coolio4433, sl_72, scottie3234
NL West: broadwayevns, frymaster

Obviously no alignment is going to be perfect or make everyone happy, but I've spent a lot of time to make sure that as many specific league/division/city requests have been granted and the overall layout is fair in terms of balancing owners' success in GW1.

If you have a major objection, please let me know via trade chat, e-mail, or instant message. If you have a minor objection that you can live with, please do so.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Career assessments

With the players who were in the majors at the start of Gleeman World having nine seasons under their belts, I thought it would be fun to check the chances of some of the best players reaching some of the biggest milestones.

Here are some results using Bill James' Favorite Toy (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments). All percentages are based on stats accumulated through season 9.

Matt Governale

Governale has a 49.4 percent chance of reaching 3,000 hits; a 19.6 percent chance of getting 3,500 hits and a 3.5 percent chance of reaching 4,000 hits.

He has an 80.6 percent chance of hitting 800 home runs; a 45.6 percent chance of hitting 900 homers and a 25.4 percent chance of hitting 1,000 homers.

He has a 62.7 percent chance of reaching 2,298 RBI and a 42.1 percent chance of driving in 2,500 runs.

He has a 50.5 percent chance of scoring 2,000 runs; a 22.5 percent chance of scoring 2,296 runs and a 10.8 percent chance of scoring 2,500 runs.

Chipper Velandia

Velandia has a 42.1 percent chance of reach 3,000 hits and a 17.3 percent chance of getting to 3,500 hits.

He has an 85.3 percent chance of hitting 800 home runs; a 51.2 percent chance of hitting 900 homers and a 30.9 percent chance of hitting 1,000 homers.

He has an 87.6 percent chance of reaching 2,000 RBI; a 47.8 percent chance of getting to 2,298 RBI and a 31.8 percent chance of driving in 2,500 runs.

Bernard Rhodes

Rhodes has a 31.7 percent chance of reaching 3,000 hits.

Doug Rueter

Rueter has a 53.4 percent chance of reaching 600 doubles; a 24.7 percent chance of reaching 700 doubles and a 9.4 percent chance of reaching 793 doubles.

Marino Reyes

Reyes has a 78.4 percent chance of stealing 1,200 bases; a 42.1 percent chance of stealing 1,500 bases and a 12.6 percent chance of stealing 2,000 bases.

John Carroll

Carroll has a 37.2 percent chance of winning 300 games and a 14.4 percent chance of winning 350 games.

He has a 65.5 percent chance of reaching 3,500 strikeouts; a 36.9 percent chance of reaching 4,000 strikeouts and an 8.2 percent chance of reaching 5,000 strikeouts.

Don Masato

Masato has a 19.4 percent chance of winning 300 games.

He has a 52.8 percent chance of reaching 3,000 strikeouts and a 17.4 percent chance of reaching 3,500 strikeouts.

Gerald Tomlinson

Tomlinson has a 32.4 percent chance of winning 300 games and a 13.6 percent chance of winning 350 games.

Ruben Crespo

Crespo has a 19.4 percent chance of winning 300 games.

Kelvin Sullivan

Sullivan has a 21.7 percent chance of winning 300 games.

Lawrence Edwards

Edwards has a 65.8 percent chance of saving 450 games; a 40.9 percent chance of saving 500 games and a 13.5 percent chance of saving 600 games.