Tuesday, May 13, 2008

NL North Preview: Season 7

Milwaukee Twindyans (104-58, NL North champs)

The Twindyans were second in the NL in runs scored last year thanks to a quartet of .900-plus OPS players: RF Dennis Nelson, LF Hector Santos, CF Pete Skinner and 1B Ted Simpson. Of the four, Santos is the only one older than 26, and he's still got plenty of offense left in him.

The pitching, fourth last season with 656 runs allowed, relies on starting pitchers Vic Alfonzo (probably the best pitcher to never win a Cy Young award) and Timothy Rivers. To help protect their leads, the Twindyans went out and traded for two-time All-Star closer Sergio Reid. Milwaukee also signed Bruce Bennett to replace Bob Witt in the middle of the rotation, which should be an upgrade. The issue for Milwaukee is that Alfonzo and Rivers both had career-best years in season 6 and neither is likely to be quite as good this season, especially since Alfonzo is starting to show his age.

The most important player the Twindyans lost was Dale Howry, a solid defensive shortstop who posted an .830 OPS last season. It appears Milwaukee will replace him with Luis Lopez, who is a downgrade both offensively and defensively, at least this season.

Overall, Milwaukee doesn't appear to be quite as good as it was last season. However, nobody in the division made any significant moves, so the Twindyans should easily win their fifth division title.

Prediction: 100 wins, NL North title

Madison Mifflin Street Boys (80-82)

Before their last season in Kansas City, the former Monarchs went on an offseason spending spree that didn't pay off, at least as far as the record was concerned. The Monarchs did score 819 runs and allow 737 for an expected record of 89-73 that would have left them just three games out of a wild card spot.

This offseason, however, the team moved to Madison, and the Mifflin Street Boys didn't do much to improve their chances. The team let 3B Robin Service and three pitchers leave and only added five Rule 5 draftees who don't look capable of producing at the major league level.

Service wasn't great, but there doesn't seem to be a 3B on the roster who can't match the .734 OPS he put up. And while Madison won't miss Denny Moore or Steven Miller, Dann Henry's 3.83 ERA in 112.2 innings will be tough to replace.

Madison does have some talent, with Dale Rooney and Troy Roberts anchoring the rotation and Bud Jones, Carlos Cordero and Tony Cela highlighting the lineup, but this team appears to have more holes than it did a season ago.

Fortunately for the Mifflin Street Boys, they can be fundamentally worse than they were last season and still win the same amount of games.

Prediction: 80 wins.

Sioux Falls Gunslingers (79-83)

The biggest offseason move in Sioux Falls was the decision to trade Dennis James to Minnesota for Gene Ferguson and Marty Pose, neither of whom appears to have a great big-league future. James isn't really a shortstop defensively, but he did post an .870 OPS last season. It appears the Gunslingers will replace him, at least against righties, with Preston Webb, who is significantly better defensively but might struggle with the bat in the majors.

Sioux Falls also allowed relievers Joe Hernandez, Theodore Ritchie and David Ferrer to leave and signed pitchers Geoff Maxwell and Pascual Ozuna. That exchange of arms shouldn't have a huge impact on the bottom line.

The good news for Sioux Falls is that two important players should bounce back from down seasons. Carlos Carreras posted a .906 OPS in season 5 but slumped to .732 last season. He should recover at least some of that. Two-time All-Star closer Larry Piatt struggled to a 5.54 ERA, but he still has a 3.32 career ERA and should be back below 3.50 this season.

Prediction: 82 wins.

Vancouver Vigilantes (63-99)

The Vigilantes didn't change much during the offseason. Mediocre 1B Wilfredo Mercado is gone and Julius Thomas, despite being well past his prime, should at least be able to match Mercado's .741 OPS when he's able to play.

Vancouver also got rid of bad pitchers Benji Kozlowski and Pasqual Encarnacion. Unfortunately, they didn't add anybody decent to replace them.

The best hope for the Vigilantes is that their best young players (Billy Ray Perry, Clyde Haynes and Joseph Wang) keep getting better. The good news is that, like the former Monarchs, this is a team that had a better run differential than its record indicated.

Prediction: 68 wins.

No comments: