Friday, May 16, 2008

NL South preview: Season 7

St. Louis Greys (89-73, NL South champs)

Just two seasons after bottoming out with a 72-90 season, the Greys made it back to the playoffs for the second time in season 6. But if they're going to keep improving, it's not going to be because of anything they did this offseason. St. Louis didn't exactly lose any stellar players (John Cho is the only regular from last season who's gone and he posted a .740 OPS at first base), but they didn't add much either.

They traded for starting pitcher Howie Dalesandro, who isn't good, and they promoted starting pitcher Willis Smith, who is going to miss the first 39 days of the season. It looks like they'll try to use Albert James and/or Gregory Clark, maybe in a platoon, to replace Cho and they should be able to at least match his production from last season.

But St. Louis' biggest problem may be that starting pitchers John Carroll, Pedro Montero and Roy Gold all turned in the best season of their career last season, and that's unlikely to happen again.

The biggest hope St. Louis has for being better this season is Vladimir Pichardo. The former No. 1 overall pick had an OK rookie season, hitting .257/.307/.464. If he turns into the All-Star SS he has the potential to be, that would be a big boost for the Greys.

Prediction: 85 wins, NL South title

Iowa City Comics (86-76)

After winning the division three years in a row, the Comics turned in their worst season since going 78-84 in season 1. Unfortunately, just like the Greys, they didn't really do anything in the offseason to get better. They only lost a solid reliever (Bono Porter, who had a 4.02 ERA in 100.2 innings) and two part-time players (LF Charlie Harang and C Vic Alexander, both of whom had an OPS around .800 in about 300 at-bats) and all three of them were either released or had their options declined.

However, the didn't add much either. They promoted defensive specialist C Onan Chen, picked apparent AAAA outfielder Paul Simpson in the Rule 5 draft and welcomed back LF Chris Parnell, who missed almost all of last season with an injury.

The biggest problem is that the only player on the roster who really excites you is 1B Chipper Velandia. Guys like Charlie Ratliff, Norm Hayes (although not last year), Ernest Bynum and Ricardo Rincon are all OK once you take into account that they play in an extreme pitcher's park, but none are great.

And when you take the home park into account while looking at the pitching staff, it's clear the Comics don't have a real No. 1 starter. Dutch Cummings, Harold Darr and Henry Beckwith were all decent last season, but that was largely a function of playing in a pitcher's park in the NL.

Iowa City could easily make the playoffs again, but it's more because of what the Greys didn't do than because of what the Comics did do.

Prediction: 84 wins.

Oklahoma City Twins (78-84)

The Twins were having a solid season, well on their way to a sixth consecutive winning season, when they made the controversial decision to blow things up and rebuild. Rather than try to hang on for a playoff spot, Oklahoma City traded away Max Leary, Brad Jefferson, Billy Stovall, Max Pascual, Keith Bryant, Phil Jefferies, Lance Lara, Bill Moore, Nate McMillan, Darrell White, P.J. Wilson and Jose Guerrero. This offseason, they got rid of a couple more quality players by trading Benji Fernandez and Tony Hernandez.

Now the Twins have a 25-man roster made up of two vets (a catching duo with a combined 10 major league years), four one-year ML players and 19 players who have yet to accumulate a year of ML experience. And while the Twins added some talented players to their farm system, Herman Grace, Felipe Perez and Geoff Forest are the only particularly exciting players on what may be the roster with the least ML experience in Gleeman World history.

Prediction: 60 wins. At most.

Monterrey Conquistadores (64-98)

Monterrey is the only team in the division that made a real effort to get better in the offseason, and the Conquistadores' streaks of three straight 90-plus loss seasons and four straight last-place finishes could both be at an end.

The biggest move was signing free agent SS Dale Howry, who will be a huge improvement over Esteban Mateo, who was bad both offensively and defensively. Monterrey also signed 3B Larry Womack to replace Louis Cannon and added solid reliever Pat Velarde.

Trading away a solid LF like Chris Hall didn't make a ton of sense, but he may have been playing over his head last season anyway. Jose Nieves and Hootie Medina will likely try to tackle the position this season, although both would be better off as the right-handed part of a platoon.

All in all, though, the Conquistadores definitely upgraded their roster, and they have a couple players in Josh Damon and Mendy Gonzales whose improvements since last season started should make a difference on the field.

Prediction: 75 wins.

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