Monday, May 12, 2008

NL East Preview: Season 7

New York Yankees (Season 6: 108 Wins, NL East Champions)

The class of the NL last season, the Yankees refused to be complacent; rather, they had a surprisingly busy offseason. Besides replacing somewhat effective reliever Paul Pearson with a pair of former Anteaters in Patrick Doster and Kevin Lee, they also dealt for Gold Glove SS Dusty Zoltan and ace reliever Tim Stark. Gone, however, are SP Tommy Liverman, starting SS Daniel Jefferson, and reliever Kordell Bordick. Zoltan should be able to replace Jefferson's modest production at the plate, and his defense will make the best pitching staff in the NL look that much better. Lee and Stark should also do fine in replacing Bordick and Pearson's production. Doster for Liverman is a clear step down, but the Yankees still have four excellent starters; Doster will only be called on to be a #5, which he's overqualified for. The bigger concern in New York is the age of the pitching staff; their 5 starters are 35, 38, 38, 32, and 32 years old, and their two best relievers are 35 and 34 years old. They'll be fine this year, but it's something to watch out for in coming seasons. Barring a catastrophe, this division is theirs.

Prediction: 110 wins, NL East Champions


Chicago Jayhawks (Season 6: 100-62, Wildcard)

Once an elite franchise, the Jayhawks have decided to rebuild from the ground up, trading away Don Masato, Bryan Beckett, Grover Rowand, Sergio Reid, and several others in an attempt to start a youth movement. As a result, they're no longer serious contenders. Still, they possess enough talent to be competitive, at least on the offensive end; two-time All-Star Nash McCartin, OBP machine Stu Butler, and power/patience slugger Mark Sakamoto should all be productive, and the rest of the lineup should at least be serviceable. However, the pitching doesn't even begin to resemble the dominant Jayhawk staffs of the past; nominal ace Jackson Jenkins has yet to see any playing time at the ML level, and the rest of the potential rotation includes two middling prospects (Javy Cedeno, Sean Clarke), a AAA lifer (Johnny Boone), a guy with a 15.09 ERA in just over 11 major league innings, as well as a 5.03 minor league ERA (P.T. Osbourne) and a modestly talented hurler coming off of major elbow surgery (Oswaldo Dotel). Also, with only 8 pitchers on their staff, they've yet to assemble a bullpen. This could be a long season.

Prediction: 68-94, staff ERA > 5


Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Season 6: 92-70, Wildcard)

The D-Rays managed to make it all the way to the NLCS despite their lack of pitching past staff ace Miguel Abreu and closer Aaron McGowan. Management has diagnosed and addressed the issue; the question is not only whether it was enough, but whether it was worth it. There's no doubt that the rotation should be better. Adding veterans Seth Adams (despite recent Tommy John surgery) and Jordan Holmes (despite his age) should certainly bring stability to the middle of the rotation, and SS Russ Lawson brings both a steady glove and solid bat (for the position, at least) to the table. Losing Wade Green shouldn't hurt; Bono Hughes should be a capable replacement. However, the loss of star C Richard Maxwell puts a major dent in the lineup. Trading him filled holes at SP and SS (Holmes, Lawson), and brought a positionless near-ready offensive prospect in return (Bob Crawford); additionally, Olmedo Park, who played Season 6 out of position (in LF), can now move back to his more natural spot behind the plate (although he's still a below average defender). Without Maxwell, though, the lineup goes from excellent to merely good.

Prediction: 94-68, Wildcard


Washington D.C. Bureaucrats (Season 6: 54-108)

The Bureaucrats have been the doormats of the division since the league's inception, when they were known as the Grays. They finished an abysmal 54 games out of 1st place; the Yankees won twice as many games as they did. So to improve the team, the Bureaucrats did...nothing. Nothing at all. Nary a major league FA signing, or a trade involving ML players. Yet they have a legitimate chance of finishing out of the cellar this season. Surprised? Check out their AAA system; players like Gene Parnell, Goose Hayes, Al Iglesias, Benito Belliard, and Jose Machado are all one level away from the majors. Depending on how many of them are called up, they might be able to leap over the Jayhawks. However, Washington management, judging by its inactivity, will probably hold the majority of these guys back at least one more season. Without help, the ML team will improve on last year's record simply because their young players are one year older (and better). But not by much.

Prediction: 58-104 without any early season call-ups; as many as 70 wins if enough of those players see regular time early at the ML level.

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